Cheltenham Festival
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AL FEROF......??
AL FEROF......??
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What a comical post eric.
Just to make sure I have this straight, are you implying Henderson isn't capable of training a horse for a race until he knows the opposition that will be turning up on the day? |
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yes Barnsey Eric morris has previous I believe
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I doubt it would have an effect on Geraghty's oulook on the race no matter how late Al Ferof is announced back on for the Arkle as it likely did with Whaley-Cohen if it turns out to be a.
The Walsh-Nicholls team do the words game in the build up more than ever now, Nicholls is becoming particularly misleading on targets. It seems only yesterday Nicholls was saying they didnt know Al Ferof's trip implying it might not be Arkle until the prices had gone after his debut win when he was immediately declared on target for the Arkle. Nicholls is a total joke now in his misleading press announcements. |
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Al Ferof: Likely to head to Arkle
Paul Nicholls says Al Ferof's entry in the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March is merely a precautionary one. The grey, a general 7/1 for the Arkle, has impressed with wins in novice chases at Cheltenham and Sandown this season but featured amongst 19 entries for the two mile championship race when they were confirmed this week. However Nicholls, writing in his exclusive column at www.betfair.com/paulnicholls, said: "No one has ever said, or even hinted, that the horse is going to run in the race, and we get all kinds of speculation on the back of the entry alone. "Obviously, the horse was always going to get an entry in the Champion Chase because a trainer wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't cover all eventualities with his best horses. "Just as Donald (McCain) is doing his job by entering Peddlers Cross in the race, and Nicky is by entering Finian's Rainbow in the Gold Cup. "We would look pretty bloody stupid if something happened to the likes of Sizing Europe and Big Zeb, and we didn't even have the option of running in the race should it cut up very badly."  |
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You must be **** - a - hoot budd...good for you. bet that has eased the nerves
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We are all waiting for the moment Eric aftertimes and tell us he has 10/1 in the 5/2 Fav.
rine and repeat. Budde, I told you it was all nonsense re AF. |
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yeh,its the bet that gets the nerves going mate,tend to fear the worst,even if it aint likely!!
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Al Ferof is prob the best value left in the Arkle, think the top three in the betting are the only ones who may win this, Sprinter looks very good but he's short enough
Interesting if Al Ferof runs on Sat outside of nov div |
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Al Ferof is prob the best value left in the Arkle, think the top three in the betting are the only ones who may win this, Sprinter looks very good but he's short enough
Interesting if Al Ferof runs on Sat outside of nov div |
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Great news for AF backers. Fantastic e/w bet still imo.
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wins the arkle for me
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for me too my friend........hopefully!!
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That nicholls is willing to run AF outside novice company in one of the top 2m chases of the season suggests that
he feels that the opposition isn't very strong in the non novice 2m chase division (esp the uk 2 milers) and that the Champion Chase is a very real option that they may take. Al ferof ante-post Arkle backers could be in a no win situation come saturday, if he wins well there is probably a significantly increased chance he will line up in the Champion Chase and if he gets beat he's not too likely to offer a big challenge to Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. |
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he will run in the Arkle whatever happens Saturday,Nichols says its just a precautionary entry in case the race falls apart,and that means BZ or/and SE dont turn up.
And why would not winning Saturday against seasoned 2 milers mean he would not likely to challenge a horse thats had 2 races over fences?? |
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The idea in P Nicholls' quote that he can get a line on Finians Rainbow for Al Ferof via Ghizao is frankly (IMO) laughable.
Ghizao has surely gone backwards this yr from the pick of his form (surely his beating of Captain Chris with a penalty at Newbury) or at least not improved on the pick of his form - P Nicholls must accept this. It also overlooks the idea that Finians Rainbow may have been over the top at Aintree (thereby flattering Ghizao) and not at the top of his game and / or may even have improved this yr on the pick of his form from last yr. I am not saying Al Ferof wont win the Victor Chandler, but IMO extrapolations like this are a bit of a reach! |
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Tinkler
Interesting points there pal... I have to say I do agree but would say if he gets beaten under 2 lengths it can only enhance his Arkle chances?? Although if he wins surely like you say it will pose connections a huge conundrum...Even though Nicholls says he will go for the Arkle Hales (owner) did seem very adamant it wasn't a flippant entry... Budd I agree Nicholls seemed very adamant, but if he beats the 3rd favourite for the Champ Chase?? Will he of sewn the seed??? |
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Saturdays race doesn't look that strong to me .The kempton form of FR and WT looks weak and I'm not sue FR's novice form totally stands up. Al Ferof could well out class them and although he's a technically a novice
he's probably tougher and jumps better than at least half the field. Somersby could well do his following routine and chase Al ferof home. |
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Having read Nicholls auto -bio it was quite apparent that he calls all the shots with regards were his horses will
run and if the owners don't like it they will have to go somewhere else. But if Hales is keen and ruby walsh comes back and is keen as well he may well go along with it. Other factors worth considering are whether Nicholls has a decent chance with any other entry he has in the Champion Chase and does Ruby walsh have any other options from the Irish horses. |
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In his column here last weekend, Nicholls said, "I'll leave you with this question, which no one seemed to ask themselves when debating whether Al Ferof should go for the Champion Chase, or indeed would be aimed at it.
I have often run novices in Cheltenham handicaps - one of my two weekend runners, American Trilogy, immediately springs to mind - and I successfully pitched Shotgun Willy into the Aon as a novice in 2001. But when was the last time when I went down the championship route with a novice at the Festival?" |
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Well the mut (somerslay) in all fairness has the best form here but he will without doubt try his best to throw it away but for me has the best form in this race others will argue...So agree again tinkler...Al ferof may well really shake them up here but Ascot can be a difficult track for a Novice especially up against seasoned horses...but by running Al Ferof I think Nicholls is showing that he really does feel the older brigade are a weak bunch...imvho
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I reckon Forpady might have the best form here on his last 2 runs against Big Zeb. Certainly a useful line on Zeb v Finians.
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I agree Strontium regarding Forpady and for all his seconds I don't think he is ungenuine.
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Interesting points Stront and tinkler...
Nicholls does annoy me with his comments as Carver said as well But agree tinkler it is going to pose nicholls with a serious problem because I like you don't see a legitimate nicholls runner or walsh ride unless you consider hold fast just an ordinary handicapper?? |
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Apaprently Hold Fast is going to be tried in the Game Spirit next.
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Where are these Nicholls coments?
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comments*
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The one I quoted was in his Betfair column last weekend.
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Seems like nobody is really a Finian's fan here.
I think he's a very talented horse, and just get the feeling he will put up a deeply impressive performance on Saturday. He seems to be settling better this season, which will make a huge difference to him seeing out his races, and I was thrilled to see him fight back from adversity at Kempton. Despite being a fan of his for a number of years I have always had him down as a soft horse, so was great to see him have to fight to win his race. I've always thought (maybe very wrongly) that he was a moral winner of the Arkle as I'm convinced Barry had a rare poor ride on the day. Horse was cruising from way out and had all of them (especially the winner) in trouble coming down the hill. Completely understand why he held on to him for so long but in hindsight I think if he'd have kicked for home much sooner it would have been a decisive move and he would have clung on up the hill. As for Al Ferof, I think he could easily finish third or fourth at the weekend and go on to win the Arkle as there are at least two in the VC that are very smart - and more experienced - horses. |
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I think Finians will piss up tbh
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And I do agree about the Arkle he gave them a chance to reel him in.
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Thanks Stront
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Im a big FR fan aswell, and I am loving the bullish comments on RP website about AF. Hopefully this will push out FR's price on Saturday. The Ghizao line of form is so misleading.
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Lol just seen the Racing Post comments. PFN is a bit of a prat to be playing down Finians so much.
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Interesting Tom
I have to say am in agreement with you in regards to Finians to some degree...I agree about the ride in the Arkle...he has always looked a classy horse...proper speed horse. My main concern is his form?? Yes the Captain Chris run was his best and cannot be faulted but I think his Ghizao run puts his form into perspective on ground he liked on a track he liked and Ghizao who is a soft ground horse was close up...The Kempton race wasn't satisfactory for me with a disappointing horses surrounding him...(the pace was ridiculous however)just my own opinion and I see others agree with you with how good he is... For me though I just wonder how much more this 9 year old will improve?? Or whether the Arkle and subsequent runs are as good as he is?? We will have this question answered on saturday to a certain degree. I am not knocking the horse just talking more in regards to the champ chase I suppose...he has to win Saturday against these to be seriously considered good enough to put it up to sizing europe and the like... For me I just wonder whether he has it in him to run to a mark in the 170's and thus be good enough to be a Champion Chaser...Just an opinion however and he just may prove me horribly wrong... Would love him to improve into that type of grade just for more interest in the champ chase but am afraid I have grave doubts...Saturday will tell me what I need to know. He needs to beat these horses to gain credibility. Tom always respect your views and hope you don't take it as me condemning the horse... |
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What we have to remember at Aintree is for me Finians is best pretty fresh and ran that typical Aintree race feeling his festival exertions. A lot of people have always said if Ghizao jumped better that day he would have won but Finians didn't jump that well either.
I also think Ghizao has regressed from last season for whatever reason (I think from day one he has been plagued with problems). He has looked very average at times and looked very good at others. Hardly a horse I would be using to base form on. This time last year he was being talked up as a serious horse. The next Well Chief as I remember.. |
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Master you are right...
But I still look at it as Ghizao disappointed in the Arkle then ran better at aintree...yes agreed he has regressed under a strange campaign this term... Difficult I suppose but for me Finians is a slightly over rated horse then, how else do you access him... People can only access him purely on his Arkle run then because his Warwick run, he was given an awful ride when they tried hold up tactics... He is a horse full of potential but no more...For me I find him incredibly difficult to access in regards form...like I say saturday will tell me how I can handicap him but he isn't young and how much more improvement to come is still open to question?imo |
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Harry - agree with everything you have said. I think he is very hard to assess from a form perspective and have to say my feelings about him are based almost entirely on my gut. To me he just seems to have always had that bit of class that most do not. I loved him over timber and was so excited for him to go chasing last year. Had a good bet on him in the Arkle and must admit I was initially disappointed as he jumped beautifully, had his own way in front and still couldn't win.
As time has gone on I have revised that opinion and think he could easily have won the race and been unbeaten over fences. I'm not one to place too much emphasis on anything that happens at Aintree but agree that I'd be more comfortable if he had won a tad more impressively there. Saturday will be a big moment for sure - I think it probably offers the first real chance we have of putting his ability into figures. Hoping he bolts up! |
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Fair play pal
Your assessment of his arkle run is where i am at to be honest. but fair play tom hope he goes well for you saturday, but have to say I am hock deep on sizing europe so hope he doesn't go to well  |
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Tom, Sint, MM - I agree regarding Saturday, I think Wishful if it all comes together could be the danger to Finians. Finians Rainsbow has only had the gun to his head once IMO, in the Arkle, and he was quite unlucky to be collared having run too freely. He was over the top at AIntree, ridden with experimental tactics at Warwick and his prior 2 runs were electric. He has very few miles on the clock for a 9yr old. Official Figures give him lots to do in the Queen Mother, but no doubt in my mind he can improve 10lbs this yr.
Nicholls would surely not be running Al Ferof if Tataniano was available. GL to connections, the fact P Nicholls is running Al Feror shows he should be taken seriously, it possibly suggests they feel Finians Rianbow is a touch soft, but the Aintree form is IMO dangerous to read literally ahead of the VC Chase. |
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I imagine this race fits neatly into AL Ferofs training plan for March.
Given that,if he runs a good race and jumps well,then its more experience for the horse and should do him the world of good being in amongst seasoned 2 milers. If he were to win the race i dont see the temptation to go QM with him,he aint going to win by much if he does,i would think. Nicholls knows that the Irish horses are what the QM is about this year,and only if something were to happen to one or both of them would he consider the QM for AF. Thats how i see it,and Nicholls has more or less said that anyway. |