i dont mind Sint

wanna bet?

whatever betting decisions you make pre-race there will be no point worrying that you got it wrong or whatever afterwards

the good thing is that we have in play betting so after all this discussion we should all be well armed should we need to adjust our positions during the race (Al Ferof might hit a big price in running lie in the Supreme at which point I would have a few quid for example)

Too busy watching these BIG races to bet in play.

oh yes I see

well if you are going to be there it will be much harder to bet in play of course. Remaining dignified should be a given however.

no teaspoon

please tell

dont think Captain Chris was ever regarded as a speed horse was he !!!!

Yawn,

speed horses do not win Arkles! Arkle winners have an abundance of stamina and the ability to sit in behind the speedsters of 2 miles and then stay on up the hill!

IMO of course

Segal's piece in full

THERE is always a big debate in sport about the worth of experience. In football they talk about players being ready to play for the national team whatever their age if they are good enough, whereas in the NFL the best quarterbacks have tended to spend some time as a back-up learning their trade and gaining experience.

At Ascot on Saturday the novice Al Ferof ran in the Victor Chandler against the seasoned two-mile chasers on only his third start and acquitted himself very well to finish third.

Afterwards his trainer Paul Nicholls talked about how Al Ferof will have learned the vital experience that will stand him in very good stead against the novices in the Arkle at Cheltenham in March.

I have no doubt he’s right on that score and there is a good chance that Al Ferof will prove himself a better horse than he showed at Ascot, but to my way of thinking all Ascot told me was that Al Ferof is never going to be a top-notcher over two miles and if he couldn’t beat Somersby and his pals, even on his third chase start, then he has very little chance of winning the Arkle.

The figures boys will no doubt rate Al Ferof ’s run on Saturday as his best over fences and I’m sure it was, but I’m always looking at the Arkle winner proving himself as a potential Champion Chase winner the following season and there is no way I saw anything like the required speed or jumping alacrity in Al Ferof at Ascot.

Now that is not to say that he isn’t a very good horse – I’m pretty sure he is – but I just don’t think he can win an Arkle and that the only chance he has of being a real superstar chaser is when he goes up in trip.

If he is to win at the Cheltenham Festival this season, in my opinion, his best option would have to be the Jewson over an extra half-mile.

Interestingly, after the race Ruby Walsh suggested that he would be a great King George horse for the following season and that backs up my view that Al Ferof is a stayer who will struggle to beat Sprinter Sacre, Menorah or Peddlers Cross over two miles around Cheltenham.

In some seasons Al Ferof would definitely have had a good chance – the year My Way De Solzen won the Arkle, for example, or even perhaps last year when Captain Chris was successful – but this year’s two-mile novices look exceptional and Ascot showed us that Al Ferof wasn’t brilliant just yet.

still think Sea the Stars has more idea,even more after reading that!!

Seems a tad wrong to have PC on the same rating after 2 scooling sessions round Bangor,and a poor effort at Kempton,but then i aint really a ratings person.

Who wants your opinion JOist? You are entitled of course, but pocket talking? Where do you get that from?

joist Al fefof formline with somersby is rock solid, somersby was runner up in last yrs arkle only beaten by sizing europe who is the best 2 mile around, i wudnt be knocking al al ferof yet , in my eyes he aint done much wrong

I'm not knocking him in the slightest, he has a chance but it doesn't take a genius to see that 2 miles is not this horses forte. I would totally agree with whoever said that the race will have to fall apart for him to win.

well if that what u think it up 2 u! some just cant be educated!!

You think 2 miles looks like Al Ferof's best trip?

The Supreme point is an overplayed one I think; it helped Al Ferof as much as it hindered the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Spirit Son who weren't able to handle it.

I never said he couldn't win it, but running against the sort of quality in opposition that is likely to be there in March, over a trip short of your best, is simply not positive whichever way you look at it. From an entirely uninvested perspective, I just cannot have Al Ferof having the legs of Sprinter/Pedders/Menorah and to an extent Cue Card. He might well be doing his best work at the end, but for all 4 plus probably others to all fall in a hole or not give their running is just not likely enough to make me want to back him.

Apologies about the shortness of the pocket talking comment, I didn't mean it in a nasty way. But the thread has got repetitive over the last few pages.

If it jumps wins, but won't jump.....

I've been silent on this thread for a while now, so here are my further developed thoughts (for what they're worth).

Always been a little worried that Al Ferof does not have the toe to win a good Arkle and still have that concern. For that reason I wouldn't back him but I do respect him and thought his VC effort was very good indeed.

This ongoing debate about whether you need to be a speed horse or a stayer is something of a moot point I feel. It's less to do with this and more to do with innate class. Classy two milers win the race because speed is the most important component in virtually any race. When the overall quality is middling to below-par, the value of stamina is even greater than normal, which is why a lot of two and a half milers have won the race in recent years. The perfect combination is of course to have a damned good two-miler who stays further, and that doesn't happen very often (Moscow Flyer, Azertyuiop etc).

In an ordinary year I would say Sprinter was home and hosed because he is plainly a very good horse and a very fast two-miler, but as there are other fast horses who might very well stay better in this year's race, I am still inclined to suspect 5/2 is not great value. Peddlers Cross is the most obvious choice but I am loathe to back any horse after a disappointing run that supposedly resulted in mystery physical problems coming to light (can we trust that, and if so, will he be right on the day)?

I think the prices are now almost right, but still feel Cue Card and Menorah can outrun their odds given a fair run race. I think both stay as well as Al Ferof but both have more speed to burn and the ability to use some tactical pace to grab a position when required.

we shall see tom

I think Kid Cassidy will win - simply enough