Well apparently PC goes straight to Cheltenham. That goes down as a negative for me. Was eexpecting him to have a run somewhere to show he is over the Kempton muscle/niggle issue but we wont get a chance to see that so will revise my quip about AF being potentially unplaced as it's obvious who has had the better preparation going into the race of the pair.

IMO.

Dont think it can be deemed as knocking tbh, FF. Just plain and simple race-reading and analysis. I have no problem with the horse at all, and I suspect others dont either.

Lets put it like this .. how many people who have been chatting on these Arkle threads this season have gone and backed AF after the weekends race..

Lots of punters on here have said it was a great prep/effort etc which it was .. so i'd be equally intrigued as to who of them has decided to go and bet ..

..i've considered a saver myself. But want to see the final line-up first as you could equally fancy a saver on CC or others imo.

FF,
Strictly on form,their is an argument to say AF should be fav.

Not that i want to get into a debate on that one,its all been said on the SS 5/2 fav thread.

Your not going to hit me with this needing to stay the trip stuff again are you Budde?? Im well aware of that mate.

Not at all,just an honest question.

Joist,
As far as i am concerned CC is a major threat,but the form that would have CC in front of Alf is with FNS.
THe Sandown race was run at a slow pace,and FNS jumped really well.
Against CC he made a horrendus mistake.
Its not form that i personally take too literally mate.

have followed this thread with great interest since it began and was holding back until i watched him run at Ascot....having now watched race several times i am convinced this was a high class effort from a novice.... i cant locate the times where his jumping was ragged and went to pieces as some posters have stated....i thought he jumped very well throughout and despite steering a widish course throughout was bang there till between last two !!!i also thought horse was on a bit of a learning curve and was not overly punished when winning chance had gone....added to this i know barry was very keen on his chances and his horse was more fully exerted and PREPARED for this race !!!i think 7s is huge for this horse and Saturday last was by know means his REAL target this year....we all have our opinions and thats what this forum is all about....good luck to all

Considering only his 3rd run,i think a lack of experince is pretty likely,especially with the amount of chases Somersby has had and to a lesser extent FR.
Also i imagine Somersby and FR have improved from their novice days as one would expect,and Alf should be still doing that.

inevitable timeform would give him improved rating as form of established grade 1 horses in VC Chase clearly higher than that you can achieve running against novices....but would Sprinter Sacre or Peddlers Cross have been no better than fourth on Saturday if they had taken part?? that's the $64mill question!

http://betting.betfair.com/horse-racing/timeform-features/handicappers-corner/handicappers-corner-5-240112.html


It's been a similar tale of woe for supposed good-things in the Arkle, dating back to the Jimmy Fitzgerald-trained Sybillin in 1991, who ran out a ten-length winner of the VC Chase (then a handicap) at Ascot but flopped when 5/4-on at Cheltenham, finishing a remote third behind Travado (who'd been confined to novice chases).

Kadastrof split the top-class pair Ask Tom and Viking Flagship in the 1998 Game Spirit Chase, yet could manage only tenth when sent off favourite back in novice company in the Arkle next time. The ill-fated Don't Be Shy went one better in the 2006 Game Spirit, yet was a never-dangerous fifth back amongst his peers at Cheltenham.

So what does this trip down memory lane prove? In fact, most of the horses in question weren't flattered by their eye-catching efforts outside of novice company and actually ran respectably at Cheltenham, yet they were coming up against unexposed rivals from top yards who simply hadn't had the same opportunities to prove themselves at that sort of level. All of which could be used as evidence to tread carefully at Cheltenham with Al Ferof (c161), who became Timeform's highest-rated novice chaser seen out so far in 2011/12 following his highly creditable third behind Somersby (c168) and Finian's Rainbow (c166) in the latest renewal of the Victor Chandler at Ascot on Saturday.

However, in stark contrast to most of the other historical examples already mentioned, there hasn't been an over-reaction to Al Ferof's Ascot third - indeed, he's even drifted in some places as third favourite in the Arkle ante-post market - and it increasingly seems that his solid form claims for Cheltenham are being overlooked in favour of more visually-impressive performances by some of his rivals.

Chief amongst these, of course, is Sprinter Sacre (c154p) who has created an admittedly excellent impression when winning two small-field novice chases, but it bears repeating that he has five-and-a-quarter lengths to find with Al Ferof from last year's Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

In our opinion, Al Ferof had the strongest form amongst the Arkle contenders even before the Ascot race and his third there has only strengthened that view.

I don't think the horse knows he has that trend to overcome judorick. And if one of Somersby or FR had fallen, would Al Ferof enter your calculations given that he now meets that 'trend'?

5 -

It's a trend that has very little meaning once one gets in to novices running against non-novices in Grade 1 races. The trend may have value when considering novices who've only run in novice chases (most of which are uncompetetive and/or low grade). Judo's post seems to be example of people using trends as rules rather than, er, trends.

Cheers Stront,saved me the bother

In fairness to Judo he was against AF prior to his Ascot run anyway, based on his speed figures.

nae bother, sint

that of course should read  "never finished out of the first two over fences"

anyway, we shall see

the difference is:

PC clearly failed to give his running at Kempton

AF did give his running at Ascot as far as I can tell

and by the methods I choose to base decisions on the Ascot form is not good enough, whereas I remain convinced that PC can produce much higher form than he has shown so far

for me it limits what his potential peak level is going to be. He is yet to run faster than 132 on the Topspeed scale and that for me is not fast enough - I expect Arkle winners to have run faster than that.

Of course, it's only a punting angle and is not set in stone - he could still gag up in reality

it's just on the balance of probability I am convinced there are going to be faster horses in the line up

This is going to go on until the race (and possibly after) isn't it chaps

looks like it

Its a race that simply gets us excited,we just cant help ourselves.

And whatever happens Im sure that we will act with dignity after the race.