Cheltenham Festival
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AL FEROF......??
AL FEROF......??
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The thing is Sint,its all been said,well by me anyway.
Not a case of being defensive,just saying it as it is and running out of informative comments to be honest. Todays race did not really tell us much more about his chances in the Arkle,he will be running against different horses. All it told me is hes still got a serious chance of winning the Arkle,but the challenge of finishing in front of SS,PC and the rest still remains. |
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I believe AF ran a good race today, however this years Arkle is IMO a far superior renewal than last years. As AF was 3L behind Finians Rainbow today with no real excuses I tink he will fall a little short. Still has an EW shout but will have to improve to go close.
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Good post well chief and interesting there seems a lot of difference of opinion on this one...
I agree with you Cue card should not be underestimated and as far as I am concerned his form is still the best on show this season..his form giving Bobs Worth 7lb and also the same to For Non Stop and a good beating rates the best form for me, that isn't to say others won't improve on what they have shown though and also no guarantee he will get the easy lead in the Arkle either. |
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my theory as to why al ferofs jumping (and this applies to a lot of horses )was ragged is that he was not 100%spot on ,today was a prep the real target is the festival ,and that is why you see certain horses jump much better at the festival is that they are 100% fit and ready . i remember tuichev a good few years back jumping poorly( at sandown i think )then winning the arkle on his next run jumping much better = reason much fitter
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Dont agree with that at all Shock.
Better ground,back at Cheltenham in novice company and with a faster pace,be a lot different to todays conditions,thats for sure. No way of knowing if it will be a far superior Arkle,no way of knowing how these horses will fare on the day,some only had 2 chases. As for having to improve to go close,that maybe what you think,but it aint definite.These novices are improving throughout their novice season or should be i would think,who knows which will be best on the day. No way am i dismissing any of the front 4 in the betting. |
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I'd be pleased with that if I were an AF backer. He's run some good, seasoned older horses close. The prep should put him spot on. The result almost guarantees he goes for the Arkle rather than the QM. Cheltenham should suit him better than Ascot. He's run to a mark and RPR that surely puts him in the mix for an Arkle and the form looks fairly solid. For those sitting on some 7-8/1+ you've got yourselves a very nice bet.
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Budd, I think he will go better at Chelt. But he will need to as Sprinter Sacre has looked electric and Peddlers will be spot on as I am sure they all will and my personal fancy Cue Card. Last years Arkle really doesn't look that good does it? All last years novices in their respective divisions have been a let down in one way or another.
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I think this years is potentially better,but its still to be proved mate.
Oh i know hes got a race on his hands with the likes of SS,PC and CC,dont worry about that. Personally i would not be that surprised if any of those 3 win,and thats the way we want it,well for me anyway. I have Alf at 14,and in a position to back another,but which one i really aint sure. Any help greatly appreciated  |
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Today's result has encouraged me to top up a little on Cue Card for the Arkle. He may well have progressed from Sandown but not that much imo and no reason to see why would he would beat CC on line through For Non Stop.
As for being a faster pace in the Arkle, I'm not sure that will be the case. Have a feeling the race will cut up like the QMCC and there is no guaranteed front runner from those at the top of the market |
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Well Budd with a ticket at 14, you're in the box seat. It is a very hard race and Menorah is not without a shout either. The race of the meeting for me.
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Be careful imo there Roo,FNS jumped a lot better at Sandown than he did against Cue Card,forms a bit iffy to take literally for future bets imo.
Think any race that contains SS and CC will have enough pace for Alf to show his best form. May be wrong but thats how i see it. |
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Hear what you say about FNS, the ground was poor at Newbury but CC would not have like that either.
Regarding the pace I can see CC making it but not necessarily at a very fast pace |
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Fact of the matter is that before today, we probably had 4 horses capable of winning the Arkle and I don't think that has changed. AF ran a perfectly respectable race and I'm sure the official handicapper will put him up 5-7lbs.
I don't think his Arkle chance has changed and fully expect him to be in the first 3. Interested by the comments about him improving for quicker ground. Not sure about that. |
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Meant to post on this instead of the SS thread.
Wont post it all again, I thought it was the absolutely perfect prep race. I didnt think he travelled that sweetly because he never seemed to be that keen on the dead ground. Wouldnt be the first horse to not be mad on the Ascot turf. As a backer, I feel even more confident of his chances after that race. Has learnt more from that run than any of his rivals in their novice efforst so far. |
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ff,
normal tuesday cheltenham ground will be pefect for him,better than he had yesterday. |
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I think alot of horses in various races struggled with that ground yesterday. Such a shame to see a premier track have that issue hanging over it.
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My point about the ground is that the nearer it is to good, the more it will suit SS as he is the best mover of all of them whereas I think soft ground might find him out.
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i thought we were discussing what ground will see Alf produce his best.
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It will help both of them then! I think AF is better equipped than SS to deal with slow ground.
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Al Ferof ran exactly as I would have expected yesterday. Picked up some decent prize money but was never going to have the pace to win.
He's a very fair e/w shout at 8/1 for the Arkle especially as there is still the little doubt about SS acting/staying on the track at Cheltenham, but Al Ferof sure as hell dosen't look like a future QM winner, whereas SS defintiely does. |
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It's a bit early to say he can't win a QM Uncle. He's only run 3 chases and got close to some good older horses yesterday. On form with Padydeplasterer he's not so far off Big Zeb. He's likley to improve another stone or more with experience which would put him in the mix for the QM in a season or two (though of course SS and other current novices will probably also improve). Probably the strongest arguement against is that, I believe, they see AF as a 3 mile chaser in the future.
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They are already talking about Gold Cup's and King Georges.
Last season a lot of people, myself included, were surprised they went Supreme instead of Neptune. This horse is crying out for a step up in trip.imo. |
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No idea where the ground arguement has come from tbh. AF has won a point-to-point on Heavy and a bumper on Heavy. His sire, Dom Alco, frequently gets winners under soft conditions. If anything, I thought the softer ground would have played to his strengths yesterday.
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He will get a step up in trip when his novice days are over.Be surprised if hes still at 2m next season.
Nowt wrong with taking things slowly though,if thats how they think he should be trained,hes done all thats been asked of him as a 2miler,plenty of time for longer trips when hes grown and matured. Mind you,having said all that,with the top 2 milers ageing and nowt much around besides,this years novices will probably have a big say in the top 2m races next season,and whoever wins the Arkle could well be top of that lot. |
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your rite sint , al ferof does need to step up for sure, he hasnt got the speed for shorter distances, the hill mite help him out at chelt for the arkle , then after that hes go to go up in dist
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He has form on soft and heavy in his early days, but his hurdle form and now his chase form is all on good and good/soft.Personally i think he would be at his best on the sort of ground we normally have on the Tuesday of the festival,like last year.
I do take the point that he may have a better chance with the ground softer and maybe hindering others,but that dont mean thats his favoured ground. If you look at his form,hes pretty versatile as re ground,so thats a good thing in case it does get soft,but good- good/soft would be pretty much perfect i reckon. |
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cue card beat fns over 2m2 at newbury on soft ground..i dont think that has any bearing come march..
whatever you make of al ferof hes definately bringing the best collateral form into the race,jumps well and perhaps crucially has won over fences at cheltenham,something id view as extremley valuable. Alot has been made of ss win over peddlers..i agree he looked very good but wasnt foot perfect,has shown his best form on flat tracks .It depends on how you see it..did he empty at chelt or will he see it out now hes a year stronger? Cuecard is improving and now colin tizzard has decided to run him in the arkle ,how will he run him?A fast n furious pace [we know he stays] or a controlled quick pace to jolt the others out of their rhythm? Menorah while looking like he,l give backers a heartattack with his jumping style actually looks better to me when hes jumping at pace,when hes given time to think he appears to panic. Peddlers cross,looked great in 2easy races,came unstuck against ss.highest rated hurdler in field etc..can you forgive his poor show given the reasons put forward by his great trainer? Blackstairmountain,can he improve enough to be a player? Lots of questions and lets just hope they all line up because if they do we are in for a treat. |
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denman,
Af record over 2m is pretty impressive for a horse that aint got the speed for the distance. Yes i think it fair to say his future will be over further,but up to now hes done the business at the 2m trip. Hes a horse thats proved he stays further,hes also a horse thats proved he can win over 2. For an Arkle thats very useful ammunition. |
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Tatenen had won over fences at Cheltenham prior to him being sent off 4/1 fav, it didn't stop him from falling at the first fence.
Dont Push It is another that had Cheltenham form over fences, but it didn;t stop him taking a crunching fall two from. I think it is overstated myself. If a horse jumps well he'll get round. Simple. |
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theres lots of different examples...kauto stars first visit to chelt didnt go too well.
perhaps it is overrated but i like them to have experience of chelt fences.. im saying i think al ferof will win i just think hes got a great chance |
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Sorry Sint, but I think thats a weird post! Citing two horses with previous Cheltenham wins, that then didnt win at the Festival, as a reason why AF's c&d win isnt relevant?!
I think its definitely a positive overall, even if it wasnt for those horses. I also think depsite his form and his breeding, that he has run his best races on better ground. |
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I think it fair to mention that he jumped well round the course hes running at in the race we are talking about,but of course it aint the be all and end all.
As a backer i like the fact hes done that,but it certainly dont mean he will jump round there better than any other horse. |
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i agree, im on AF too, the 8's wiv coral didnt last long, cudnt have him out of the top 3 thats for sure, im actually looking 4ward to the akle more than CH, as altough Sprint S is similar price to HF for champ hurdle, i feel the arkle is more wide open for sure!
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CCM, the previous poster said it was ''extremely valuable''. I provided evidence as to why it's not as valuable as it may seem.
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I never said AF's win was not relevant.
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Sorry, I paraphrased
 Ok I agree it isnt 'extremely valuable', but I'd say its definitely 'valuable'. |
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Course form always valuable at Cheltenham for sure. But like Budde says, not the be all and end all,innit.
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any stats on Novices going into the Arkle having previously had a run outside of Novice company? Can think of any off hand but would be surprised if there are not a few that have attempted it.
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Looking at the betting for the Arkle at the moment I'm finding it hard to see many turning up after the first six. With the top five or six giving the race so much depth it's easy to see the rest dodging the race for the Jewson or a handicap, 10 ran in the race last year and that number could easily be less this year.
The point being that whilst I like Al Ferof, yesterday only reinforced my view that he can only win the Arkle if the race falls apart in front of him. If Cue Card and/or Sprinter Sacre have to cut out the running themselves then this makes the race more about tactical speed and I believe that in this scenario the chance of them racing to early is decreased. The pacesetters in the Supreme set an electric early gallop and dropped away along way from home. I heard Ruby Walsh said he would make a fantastic King George mount next year and I would agree with that. For me his future lies over further. |
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think most of us pretty much agree his future lies over further.
This season however hes running over 2m and doing well at it. 2m on a track like Cheltenham will suit him fine at this stage of his career imo,and more importantly in the opinion of his connections. As for the race,well not easy to predict,but i think it safe to say that CC and SS will be prominent and the natural way they run suggests to me a pace that Alf will appreciate. |