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If he was £2m clear in the title I suspect he would have campaigned Prospect Wells and Al F a little differently.
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Some rubbish being spoken on this thread, nicholls is always innovative when finding good opportunities for his horses at Grade 1 level. It's clear from his comments that, rightly or wrongly, he doesn't respect Finian's Rainbow too much and feels this is a soft Grade 1 that Al Ferof can pick up. I would imagine he respects Sizing Europe and Big Zeb more and for that reason the Queen Mother won't be on the cards whatever Saturday's result.
As for Zarkander, it would be almost criminal to waste an opportunity to exploit what is almost certainly a soft mark. His form with Grandouet and Unaccompanied makes him look thrown in for this race and it isn't as though he doesnt go well fresh, he won the Adonis on his first ever appearance over hurdles last year, impressively. To whoever said that the race is not a suitable prep for the Champion Hurdle, that is because Champion Hurdle hopefuls are invariably rated too highly by this stage. It is because he has been off the course that he has not had a chance to prove he has improved at the same rate as the horses he beat in the triumph and is therefore rated much lower than them. Not long ago Punjabi was second in the race and went onto be third in the Champion and win it the following year. |
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Great read boys.
Will be keeping a close eye on Zark ! |
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Outstanding post barnsey - thank you
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been looking at reruns of videos for the contenders for the arkle and al ferof is a horse that i like a lot, seems to do just enough to win and is on an upward curve and a fast pace (which he will get in the arkle ) will suit, holds sprinter sacre on supreme hurdles form, and jumps really well and at the prices i would rather be with him than the fav . loved the way he stuck his neck out when for non stop challenged him on the run in at sandown . put it this way if it comes down to a head to head battle with spinter sacre ,cue card, and a few others up the hill in the arkle i know who i would want on my side . the 7s for the arkle looks fair to me at this stage .
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My point about AF running in this race is that I dont believe they are actually going in to win it 100%. I believe he will be there 90% or so, just enough to make him competitive, but ultimately not enough to make him win. If he finishes in the first 3 or 4 then I will save on him for the Arkle itself, as his price should not alter too much, it may even lenghten, but if he wins the race then you'd have to say he has been trained for it, in which case i'd be dubious about March, that's it. Might be backward but i'll pay the costs.
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I think Barnsey is spot on.
I think its ludicrous anyone is suggesting that Nicholls or Henderson are being greedy, or putting the trainers title before their horse. I just cant accept they would do this. And whats wrong with either of them wanting to maximise revenue for their owners, if they feel it wont risk the weel being of their horses? Thats what I'd like my trainers to do. If they make an owner an extra few quid, they are more lilely to get another horse. Its what keeps racing going. |
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Top post Foylewar, totally agree. AF seem to still be improving, likes the hill at cheltenham and doesn't like to be passed, 7s is a lovely price
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Good post Barnesy,have no doubt you make valid points there.
Have no doubt re Nicholls either,spot on Catch me. |
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From the Paul Nicholls Q&A tonight:
"If you could have a free bet on the Cheltfest on a horse which isn't in your stable who would you back #askpaul Sizing Europe" |
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Think that says it all Stront,as re Alf in the QM.
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That was my interpretation Budd.
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Looks like it will be Soft ground on Saturday. 17f stiff track could be quite a test.
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Good to see you're still feeling positive about AF and this race Sint
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There isn't a VC Chase thread I can see CCM so posted my thoughts here. It was just a general comment in respect to the race as a whole, rather than putting the willies up Af backers.
Honest. ![]() ![]() |
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Only joking mate.
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If it gets really desperate going he can always pull him out if he thinks it would do him harm,in terms of his Arkle chances.
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Never under-estimate the misleading statements Nicholls puts out. He isnt shy in releasing statements that suit him but not us thats for sure.
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Yeah I know CCM.
![]() It should be a proper race on Saturday though if the conditions are Soft. |
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just backed al ferof for the arkle love this horse nothing flashy ,just gets the job done and we know he can tough it out !
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Nice one Foyles,i'm quiet keen on him as well!!
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yes budd i did notice that this was one of yours good luck .
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budd john hales is in the post tommorow with a feature on al ferof talking about the horses chances for the v.c and arkle ,and also tells why he thinks he has got a possible future gold cup winner on his hands ,worth a read .
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cheers mate,will take a look at that
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Can't help but think of Waterloo Boy, a real toughie of a horse who got walloped 20L by the flashier Sabin Du Loir at Ascot then reversed the form in the Arkle...
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Al Ferof for me, he has the course form and I can't See SS storming up the hill. Best novice jumper seen out this year IMO
Preview at the following link: All the best Mark |
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well pleased with that today.
Back at Cheltenham and back in novice company should see a big race on what i just saw. |
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Going to get outpaced coming down the hill imo...can he make it up?
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Good performance. Didn't travel particularly well when the pace increased and his jumping got a bit ragged but his best effort over fences for sure. If Sombersby has run up to his mark, then I expect to see Al Ferof reassessed at around 160.
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You can be pleased in that he ran well against some solid horses. I would be aswell. As predicted, he was not there 100%, but there to run well, so a nice prep.
However, a little worrying though,imo, that he was bustled along for some way. He is crying out for step up in trip. |
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he was bustled along, but to some degree he was in last years supreme
maybe a stronger pace back at chelt will help, but i was a bit disappointed with his jumping. looked a bit slow and deliberate. unlike what we saw in his first 2 races |
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I backed Al ferof today and thought he was a bit disappointing. He looked in great condition pre-race to
me ,so no excuses on that score. But he was given a very cautious ride by RW, who dragged him wide the whole way probably to give him a clear sight of his fences. This probably cost him more lengths than he was beaten but given his jumping wasn't great out wide , in amongst horses it could have been worse. He still has a chance in the Arkle but I think the form of todays race is questionable. |
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well its the best form we have so far.
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I think the form of the race is fine, but AF is just not a 2 miler. The distance was 17f on a stiff track today. It wont be any more of a stamina test in the Arkle.
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Whether you are right or not,he can still win an Arkle.
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My word Budde, and you accused me of being defensive.
![]() There are mixed views from Bookmakers, some of them cuts his odds, others lenghthened them to 8/1. |
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Good post tinkler...
I have to say though, thought the horse ran a blinder... People have to remember he is a novice and has to jump that bit quicker against horses that are seasoned like the front 2...reasonable horses were in behind also...he also didn't like that ground, it was very tacky...and thus think he didn't jump well out of it. For me it was a lovely prep for the Arkle and with better ground likely to suit he has certainly changed my view of him... I have to say I am not betting the race till the day now (if any) but at 8's with OK Coral it is certainly tempting..they have made a mess of this price for me and if you like him I would take that as think it is good value...but the race is now starting to stink for me personally with so many unexposed types going to the race that all look decent in there own right. He is tough though and will be a danger to all come the day now imo Budd for me, you now have a decent voucher so good luck to you know how much you like him...kiss of death though probably...judging by my recent form anyway. |
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I personally wouldn't be taking the 8/1 on Al Ferof, I think he should be about the same price of Cue Card, who I think people are underestimating for this years Arkle.
He beat For Non Stop by further than Al Ferof did giving weight and got chinned on the line against Bobs Worth giving weight, over 2m4. Bobs Worth may be a stayer but he had the speed to beat Rock on Ruby over 2m4 last year. As for today's race I don't really think it told us anything new. It told us that it was a very difficult task for a novice to beat the others on only his third run and it showed he can get outpaced at times, which I think we all knew. I expected him to come about 2nd or 3rd, but I wold have expected him to get a bit nearer to Finians, who couldn't win last years Arkle which was much weaker. I'm not writing him off, but I think his price is largely on the skinny side for me (I'm surprised a lot of bookies shortened him) |
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i agree
it was only his 3rd run, but it was only finians 2nd race out of novice company. (hardly a seasoned horse) i didn't think they went a lightening pace, and am sure they will go quicker in the arkle so his jumping will be put under more pressure i agree he might be better on the likely better ground and am not saying he wont win. but he was my fancy for the arkle before today, now i'm not so confident |
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think this horse is a lot better going left handed than right , and that was a good run imo ,dont think they had him 100% and it was a good work out that should put him spot on for the arkle ,he does look as tho he needs further( but nicholls would know more about that than me) a fast run arkle should suit him down to the ground and we know he will get up the hill so the 8s looks very fair price imo.
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