Cheltenham Festival
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Long run is the youngest horse in the gold cup feild and one of the most unexposed,i kown his record to date round cheltenham mightin make good reading but on the day of the king george there was plenty of market confidence behind him as he opened up 7/1and was backed into 9/2 before the off and romped home, Seemingly the only question mark over him is if stays the distance in the gold cup but everyhorse has til start somewere,when kauto was winnin 2mile tingle creeks they all said hed never stay over 3miles at cheltenham&now look at him.
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Replies: 81
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No, cant be having him ..... this year, distance and poor jumping will let him down i fear
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More chance of Binocular getting 3m2f than him
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I feel that if Long Run gets into jumping rhythm then the rest running for second, but its a IF?
He certainly wasnt stopping in king george, and its a brave person to bet against him winning.Slight question marks against most of his main rivals too and now Diamond Harry not running get your wheel barrows[;)] out |
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He will stay no problem at all. He is a stayer. He was winning 3 mile grade 1s at the age of 4. If he can get into a rhythm of jumping like the previous poster said he will be very hard to beat IMO.
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what prompts anyone to say he wont stay?he wasnt stopping at kempton...
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Did you see that clown of a jockey on that ride yesterday, arms and legs all over the place, I thought he was guiding a plane to land, he makes Broderick Munro Wilson look stylish
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Bags of stamina influence from cadoudal the sire...not stopping at kempton...as long as there'sa little juice in the ground...I see no problems. The fact he's 6 is not a problem - The fellow was only beaten a sh hd at 6 by cool ground...
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very young is 6 to compete in a gold cup
dont think hes improved that much to be a gold cup winner judging on its festival performance last year |
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Ruby said the other night that he thinks hes more ground dependant then anything else. Not saying he knows everything but prob worth listening to.
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i am not overly concerned with the horses ability to stay, plenty of stamina on the sires side, if he jumps as well as he did at kempton can see a similar result .
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but thats the thing - chelt fences are a whole diff thing
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its the same for all of them zealot one mistake at a critical time and goodnight
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We may not find out, he's a great horse on flat tracks but the undulations found him out at Cheltenham last year, I won't be betting against him clouting one too many....
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Maybe it has been a jumping thing with him and not a Cheltenham thing. He made plenty of mistakes at Kempton and Warwick last season before he ran at Cheltenham, so it may not necessarily be down to his supposed inability to act on the track. Perhaps his jumping has just been cured, he was fine around Kempton last time as opposed to his mistakes there last season. Kauto Star had plenty of problems with his fences at the same stage of his career then he seemed to click and never looked back. Ditto Long Run?
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In a true run race, and in all likelihood it will be, Long Run (imv) as little chance of getting the trip. It was absolutely legless over 400 metres less at the finish in last years novice race.
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he was but mistakes will sap the energy out of any horse(kauto star was tired after mistakes last year)...nh very confident of a bold bid.ill be backing it ew if ground suitable.if its not ill abstain!
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Agree baron ... he made jumping mistakes at every course he ran at last season, red herring him having a problem at Cheltenham, unlike Kauto Star who has always struggled jumping around the undulating track when there is a pace on. The jockey can just look for a round similar to Kempton and they all have him to beat imo.
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If Claisse could water last year on the eve of the race with rain forecast the next day then he will be making sure the zip is taken out this year also imo.
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eric - Claisse didn't water until Tue night, he was worried it was too quick coming down the hill so watered to maintain good to soft
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Next to Peddler's and Captain Chris, Long Run is my biggest place lay of the meeting. Why you'd want more evidence of his course form than last year's RSA and this season's Mackerson beggars belief. Good for me though, I need this for my Vegas trip in April!!
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horse9 think he watered the Thur evening.
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It may be he was strongly talking about doing it the Thur as it is why I laid my Kauto double off.
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Lets not forget something, Henderson last season was toying with the idea of running him in the Arkle. After an impressive win in the Feltham he was dropped to 2m for the Kingmaker. One try over 3m at Chelteham he struggles to hold on for 3rd, now they want to go 3m 2f in a far hotter race?? This horse will always look outstanding at Kempton as its a flat, sharp 3m which suits speedier horses. This horse isn't packed with stamina, no matter what anyone says.
Big course issue, stamina issue, can make mistakes and ridden by you know who. Plenty of negatives their if you ask me. |
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People against the older brigade, look at the stats, saying only 1 winner in the last 17 years, was aged in double figures. Well guess what, how many 6yr old's have won the Gold Cup?? Answer NONE!
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He only considered 2 miles for Long Run to keep his miles on the clock down it was nothing to do with him preferring a shorter trip.
Long Run didnt just hold on for victory he went clear in the King George. Kicking King and Kauto Star have won it in similar fashion in recent years ... he will get the trip as they did but it may depend more on not being too fast ground and as with all of them, jumping on the day. |
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sharmadal, i agree there might questions to answer regarding his jumping/track but his age is nothing to worry about
how many 6 year olds can you think of who have gone for the gold cup as king george winners? |
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I just re-watched last years RSA. He appeared not to stay then, and dropped right off with about 1.5-2 f to go. However, his jumping was pretty scrappy at quite a few fences and he is a year older - so if he jumps better, or has more stamina now he's 6, he might see out the trip better. That said, the GC is 2 f longer than the RSA, so he'd need to stay nearly half a mile more than he did a year ago.
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Sham - only 3 have tried since Mill House did it in 1963!
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Will stay up until the hill. Those arguing that it stayed at Kempton have no idea.
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I can't imagine there are two more contrasting tracks that Kempton and Cheltenham, I might sound like a broken record but the King George has seen many a specialist 2m chaser overperform and I can't remember too many 2m champion chasers winning Gold Cups.
And given the pilot who seems to get outbattled in every scrap I can't have Long Run |
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Exactly. Watch the RSA and you tell me if thats the look of a horse wanting an extra 2f.
It's Cheltenham form wouldn't even see it placed in a GC let alone win one, wouldn't touch the horse with a barge pole. No matter how many 6yr olds have ran in the GC, none have won it. All the horses best form is on flat tracks. The twice it's been to Cheltenham it's disappointed and been passed up the run in by the likes of Dancing Tornado and Burton Port. I still can't work out why the handicapper put him up after the Paddy Power, bizzare. The form of the race isn't worth a hill of beans. Only 2 winners have come from it and he was one of them, but then again ratings nowadays mean absolutely nothing. I have seen Poquelin is now rated 170 yet has never won a Grade 1 chase, Best Mate won his first GC off 170, go figure???? |
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Shamardal - the srength of your comments might have been reasonable before the King George - I take it you couldn't have Long Run for that race either given your reasoning? It hammered KS - it doesn't need to rely on PPower form - this form was more persuasive. If you accept that he has progressed since last season and it's first run in terms of its jumping you are looking at evidence roundthe track as different.Both his runs there were in competitive championship/handicap races. His sire is cadoudal - therefore stamina influence is there imv. The french breds have been running relatively recently here and the fellow's sh hd second tocool ground when 6yo says it can be done if the horse has sufficient class. Long Run won 8 of his 12 in France before coming here in top class company...
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Winning the KG has no bearing whatsoever on it winning the GC; go and view One Man if you need further evidence of this. Forget Long Run's substandard run in the Mackeson, it is its run in last years RSA which tells you all you need to know; the horse ha no chance of getting home in a true run race.
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I cant understand how anyone is using the RSA run as some kind of proof the horse cant win a GC. He is quite clearly a different horse this season. He came to Cheltenham last season as a 5 year old at the end of a pretty long season, and imo did very well to get as close as he did in the RSA. The PP was his seasonal bow and clearly not the long term target. Henderson made plenty of noises about the horse not being at his peak.
The most relevant piece of form, to his chances next week, is quite clearly the KG form. Peop,e are under rating that performance and cant seem to accept he has improved leaps and bounds. |
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Browne's - I don't need to look at the video of One Man - I backed him in the Hennessy (2nd) and KG- the horse was a totally different animal to Long Run and ran with a totally different style (rubber ball was his trainer and owner's words). If you see the KG as Long Run coming of age and getting out of the way of the obstacles which held him back from the very top of his generation the previous year then that is why I see the KG as important evidence. As I say Cadoudal his sire has plenty of stamina influence - go have a look at the breeding Browne's..
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Why would you watch One Man winning a KG as proof it has no bearing on a GC, and not watch Kauto Star?
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Well said CCM[;)]
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He does look to me like a typical Kemptom lover and Cheltenham hater,of which their have been a few over the years.
His Kempton run as a novice was very good and so was his KG win.In between have been 2 pretty poor efforts at Cheltenham. Now you can look at that how yer like,but it gives people an argument to say he much prefers Kempton,and i am one of them. |
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Guy, I am trying to save you money here. The horse has next to zero chance of staying. CCM has stated last year one of the reasons why it was so knackered in the 400 metres shorter novice race was that it was the end of a long season; it only had 1 run (in a 2 miler) that year on the way to the RSA!!
All the King George tells you is that on a flat track over the easiest 3 miles in the country the horse can run. It says precisely zip about the Gold Cup. If you think the beast has any chance of getting home in a truly run GC then good luck to you but I really think that you'll be massively disappointed long before the final fence. Taking aside his stamina issue, being well beaten in a Mackeson (relevant course form) is not good advertising for his chance in the GC. Won't finish in the first 5. |