Will long run stay the distance?

No, cant be having him ..... this year, distance and poor jumping will let him down i fear

More chance of Binocular getting 3m2f than him

I feel that if Long Run gets into jumping rhythm then the rest running for second, but its a IF?

He certainly wasnt stopping in king george, and its a brave person to bet against him winning.Slight question marks against most of his main rivals too and now Diamond Harry not running get your wheel barrows[;)] out

He will stay no problem at all. He is a stayer. He was winning 3 mile grade 1s at the age of 4. If he can get into a rhythm of jumping like the previous poster said he will be very hard to beat IMO.

what prompts anyone to say he wont stay?he wasnt stopping at kempton...

Did you see that clown of a jockey on that ride yesterday, arms and legs all over the place, I thought he was guiding a plane to land, he makes Broderick Munro Wilson look stylish

Bags of stamina influence from cadoudal the sire...not stopping at kempton...as long as there'sa little juice in the ground...I see no problems. The fact he's 6 is not a problem - The fellow was only beaten a sh hd at 6 by cool ground...

very young is 6 to compete in a gold cup
dont think hes improved that much  to be a gold cup winner judging on its festival performance last year

Ruby said the other night that he thinks hes more ground dependant then anything else. Not saying he knows everything but prob worth listening to.

i am not overly concerned with the horses ability to stay, plenty of stamina on the sires side, if he jumps as well as he did at kempton can see a similar result .

but thats the thing - chelt fences are a whole diff thing

its the same for all of them zealot  one mistake at a critical time and goodnight

We may not find out, he's a great horse on flat tracks but the undulations found him out at Cheltenham last year, I won't be betting against him clouting one too many....

Maybe it has been a jumping thing with him and not a Cheltenham thing. He made plenty of mistakes at Kempton and Warwick last season before he ran at Cheltenham, so it may not necessarily be down to his supposed inability to act on the track. Perhaps his jumping has just been cured, he was fine around Kempton last time as opposed to his mistakes there last season. Kauto Star had plenty of problems with his fences at the same stage of his career then he seemed to click and never looked back. Ditto Long Run?

In a true run race, and in all likelihood it will be, Long Run (imv) as little chance of getting the trip. It was absolutely legless over 400 metres less at the finish in last years novice race.

he was but mistakes will sap the energy out of any horse(kauto star was tired after mistakes last year)...nh very confident of a bold bid.ill be backing it ew if ground suitable.if its not ill abstain!

Agree baron ... he made jumping mistakes at every course he ran at last season, red herring him having a problem at Cheltenham, unlike Kauto Star who has always struggled jumping around the undulating track when there is a pace on. The jockey can just look for a round similar to Kempton and they all have him to beat imo.

If Claisse could water last year on the eve of the race with rain forecast the next day then he will be making sure the zip is taken out this year also imo.

eric - Claisse didn't water until Tue night, he was worried it was too quick coming down the hill so watered to maintain good to soft

Next to Peddler's and Captain Chris, Long Run is my biggest place lay of the meeting. Why you'd want more evidence of his course form than last year's RSA and this season's Mackerson beggars belief. Good for me though, I need this for my Vegas trip in April!!

horse9 think he watered the Thur evening.

It may be he was strongly talking about doing it the Thur as it is why I laid my Kauto double off.

Lets not forget something, Henderson last season was toying with the idea of running him in the Arkle. After an impressive win in the Feltham he was dropped to 2m for the Kingmaker. One try over 3m at Chelteham he struggles to hold on for 3rd, now they want to go 3m 2f in a far hotter race?? This horse will always look outstanding at Kempton as its a flat, sharp 3m which suits speedier horses. This horse isn't packed with stamina, no matter what anyone says.

Big course issue, stamina issue, can make mistakes and ridden by you know who. Plenty of negatives their if you ask me.

People against the older brigade, look at the stats, saying only 1 winner in the last 17 years, was aged in double figures. Well guess what, how many 6yr old's have won the Gold Cup?? Answer NONE!

He only considered 2 miles for Long Run to keep his miles on the clock down it was nothing to do with him preferring a shorter trip.

Long Run didnt just hold on for victory he went clear in the King George. Kicking King and Kauto Star have won it in similar fashion in recent years ... he will get the trip as they did but it may depend more on not being too fast ground and as with all of them, jumping on the day.

sharmadal,  i agree there might questions to answer regarding his jumping/track but his age is nothing to worry about

how many 6 year olds can you think of who have gone for the gold cup as king george winners?

I just re-watched last years RSA. He appeared not to stay then, and dropped right off with about 1.5-2 f to go. However, his jumping was pretty scrappy at quite a few fences and he is a year older - so if he jumps better, or has more stamina now he's 6, he might see out the trip better.  That said, the GC is 2 f longer than the RSA, so he'd need to stay nearly half a mile more than he did a year ago.

Sham - only 3 have tried since Mill House did it in 1963!

Will stay up until the hill. Those arguing that it stayed at Kempton have no idea.

I can't imagine there are two more contrasting tracks that Kempton and Cheltenham, I might sound like a broken record but the King George has seen many a specialist 2m chaser overperform and I can't remember too many 2m champion chasers winning Gold Cups.
And given the pilot who seems to get outbattled in every scrap I can't have Long Run

Exactly. Watch the RSA and you tell me if thats the look of a horse wanting an extra 2f.

It's Cheltenham form wouldn't even see it placed in a GC let alone win one, wouldn't touch the horse with a barge pole. No matter how many 6yr olds have ran in the GC, none have won it. All the horses best form is on flat tracks. The twice it's been to Cheltenham it's disappointed and been passed up the run in by the likes of Dancing Tornado and Burton Port. I still can't work out why the handicapper put him up after the Paddy Power, bizzare. The form of the race isn't worth a hill of beans. Only 2 winners have come from it and he was one of them, but then again ratings nowadays mean absolutely nothing. I have seen Poquelin is now rated 170 yet has never won a Grade 1 chase, Best Mate won his first GC off 170, go figure????

Shamardal - the srength of your comments might have been reasonable before the King George - I take it you couldn't have Long Run for that race either given your reasoning? It hammered KS - it doesn't need to rely on PPower form - this form was more persuasive. If you accept that he has progressed since last season and it's first run in terms of its jumping you are looking at evidence roundthe track as different.Both his runs there were in competitive championship/handicap races. His sire is cadoudal - therefore stamina influence is there imv. The french breds have been running relatively recently here and the fellow's sh hd second tocool ground when 6yo says it can be done if the horse has sufficient class. Long Run won 8 of his 12 in France before coming here in top class company...

Winning the KG has no bearing whatsoever on it winning the GC; go and view One Man if you need further evidence of this. Forget Long Run's substandard run in the Mackeson, it is its run in last years RSA which tells you all you need to know; the horse ha no chance of getting home in a true run race.

I cant understand how anyone is using the RSA run as some kind of proof the horse cant win a GC. He is quite clearly a different horse this season. He came to Cheltenham last season as a 5 year old at the end of a pretty long season, and imo did very well to get as close as he did in the RSA. The PP was his seasonal bow and clearly not the long term target. Henderson made plenty of noises about the horse not being at his peak.

The most relevant piece of form, to his chances next week, is quite clearly the KG form. Peop,e are under rating that performance and cant seem to accept he has improved leaps and bounds.

Browne's - I don't need to look at the video of One Man - I backed him in the Hennessy (2nd) and KG- the horse was a totally different animal to Long Run and ran with a totally different style (rubber ball was his trainer and owner's words). If you see the KG as Long Run coming of age and getting out of the way of the obstacles which held him back from the very top of his generation the previous year then that is why I see the KG as important evidence. As I say Cadoudal his sire has plenty of stamina influence - go have a look at the breeding Browne's..

Why would you watch One Man winning a KG as proof it has no bearing on a GC, and not watch Kauto Star?

Well said CCM[;)]

He does look to me like a typical Kemptom lover and Cheltenham hater,of which their have been a few over the years.

His Kempton run as a novice was very good and so was his KG win.In between have been 2 pretty poor efforts at Cheltenham.
Now you can look at that how yer like,but it gives people an argument to say he much prefers Kempton,and i am one of them.

Guy, I am trying to save you money here. The horse has next to zero chance of staying. CCM has stated last year one of the reasons why it was so knackered in the 400 metres shorter novice race was that it was the end of a long season; it only had 1 run (in a 2 miler) that year on the way to the RSA!!

All the King George tells you is that on a flat track over the easiest 3 miles in the country the horse can run. It says precisely zip about the Gold Cup. If you think the beast has any chance of getting home in a truly run GC then good luck to you but I really think that you'll be massively disappointed long before the final fence. Taking aside his stamina issue, being well beaten in a Mackeson (relevant course form) is not good advertising for his chance in the GC. Won't finish in the first 5.

I can see him racking up more King Georges like Kauto,but unlike Kauto can see him never winning the GC.

CCM has stated last year one of the reasons why it was so knackered in the 400 metres shorter novice race was that it was the end of a long season; it only had 1 run (in a 2 miler) that year on the way to the RSA!!

Eh? The horse had been trained specifically for the Grade 1 Chase it won at Auteil in the November. He had had 4 runs by the time he got to Chelts and was over the top imo.

CCM, from Jan onwards (ie. that year) it had 1 run prior to Chelt. Surely it can't have been over the top.

What does the calendar year have to do with anything? A slightly odd point. Its about the season as a whole surely? Are you only looking at horses campaigns from Jan 1st onwards in your staking plans this year then??

Its all about opinions. Neither of us know for sure. But I feel Chelteham was a bit of an afterthought. He was tarined in France, specifiaclly for a couple of races in Oct / Nov... came over to Henderson when clearly in fine form and he won a couple of races in a canter. To keep a horse at that level for another couple of months is impossible.

This year around, he has had a mucvh lighter campaign. Now admittedly the KG was the first target. But since that day everything has revolved around the GC. That is a massive difference from last year. I'd say thats indisputable myself.

Agree over the top for RSA. Will see a different animal in the GC imo

CCM, simply stating that it cant have been over the top in that it had raced once in the 3 month prior to Chelt. The main thing that would put me off the is how completely drunk the horse looks in the last 50 yard last year. If it hits the wall at the same point this time round (and it'll probably happen a lot sooner as this year's GC is significantly more competitive than last year's novice) I can see him pulling up.

Like you say though, all about opinions.....and we've all been wrong at some point (although I have to go a fair way back to remember the last time I was wrong when I was this certain about an outcome).

Not surprised you think you'll be right Brownes. You do tend to be a bit one eyed when you get a bee in your bonnet.

Fair point

And you dont seem to underatnd the term 'over the top'. It doesnt mean that he is tired because he has had so many runs.

I fully understand the term 'over the top'. However, when the horse was trained with Cheltenham in mind last year I fail to see how he could possibly have been over the top; unless you are stating the champion trainer elect doesn't know how to train horses.

You'd have an excuse for having your opinion if you didn't have evidence; unfortunately you don't have any excuse a there is all the evidence you need from 2 runs at Cheltenham. Conclusion:

A: The horse isn't good enough (at least on this track anyway)
B: The horse clearly has little chance of staying
c: You can't interpret evidence correctly

I am trying to save you money here. No good doing it after the event.

Brownes - I however have no wis to persuade you from saving what is a clear lay strategy - GL.I hope and believe you will be wrong.

On the evidence of racing style and previous cheltenham runs you would never have backed dessie to win a GC in a slog through the mud....you would never have touched dawn run after it fell at it's previous run at cheltenham that season. Generally the RH;flatter Kempton will usually not favour the same horses as the GC; 3m 2f....KS has surprised me a to how adept he's become at both.You are taking the 2 cheltenham runs as evidence he doesn't like the track/undulations - you might be right. I however believe that all last season he was adjusting to the english fences (on all his runs)...he couldn't get away with his mistakes at cheltenham as he could at warwick/kempton. CCM also raises the fair pont that for a young hors winning grade 1 chases around testing going at autueil may have took some edge off him last year. We saw a different proposition in the KG and my reading of the evidence is that he may nowbe more equipped and better schooled to show his true potential. Without mistakes and a better preparation I see him coming up the hill far better this year than last.

Fistfulofdollars....in Dessie's case he was so massively superior to his contemporaries that he had to fall in at some point. All of its Chelt performances were at least a stone below what it was capable of. I think in the case of KS it is just (or at least was) a very very good horse who probably had the ability to win at pretty much any distance. Those horses don't come along that often. However, and this is the crucial bit for me, neither of those horses ever gave evidence that they'd struggle with the trip. Long Run demonstrated that very clearly last season. I agree that the horse seems to have ironed out his flawed jumping and I don't really see that as being the reason why it won't place; just that it will be running on empty when they start up the hill.

Good luck though and we'll see very soon.

The horse wasnt trained with Cheltenham in mind last year. Thats the point I'm making. He was trained to peak in October / November to win the Grade 1 races he did in France.

I cant interpret evidence correctly. You cant even read a form book.

My good God. That was 6 months prior to Cheltenham. So I presume you laid it come March after such a heavy campaign?

CCM's point is a valid one Browne's....it appears you are unable to balance your view accordingly and acknowledge that there alternative ways of viewing the evidence. As I have posted previously Long Run's record up to grade 1 level in France is arguably better than KS at a similar age (8 from 12 and placed in remainder).KS is exceptional...but my suspicion is that Long Run could potentially be up to emulating his record.

If you'd have place laid it last year Browne's you'd have been paying out....

I didnt back him or lay him.

Brownes. You are always very argumentative and I dont see why. Whether you agree or not, any reasonably intelligent person can see the argument I am putting across. If you dont agree thats your prerogative, but to not respect it makes you look daft.

I personally think the horse will handle the track, but respect the argument that sayd he doesnt.

The horse contested three Grade 3's and one Grade 1 Chase between March and the end of May at the end of the 08/09 season. Then contested another Grade 3 and a Grade 1 in October and November. Thats 6 top class races on very soft going in the space of 7 months for a 4 year old.

He was then moved to a different country and kept on the go to win races in December and February before going to the festival. If you prefer to look at calendar years, he had 8 runs in the year before Cheltenham.

And fwiw, I actually spoke to NJH about this very point at Punchestown last year and he said he felt the horse had been on the go too long prior to the festival. You probably know better mind you.

Brownes are you laying my bleeding bet or what buddy?

Goretski, absolutely. However, we can't do it via BF as on the lay side it always matches at best price (eg, if I offer 40s and 6 is being asked for we'll match at 6). Whatever way you want to do it I'm fine with.

Can't Catch Me, I'm not being argumentative, simply that my view is different from yours. Like I say, we need different opinions else there wouldn't be a market. I'll keep quiet on the subject but I will be shouting from the rooftops when (if) I'm proved correct.

Fistful....You are right, however....I didn't. The reasons for doing it this I've stated many times. As you think I'm being argumentative as I have a different opinion from you would you prefer me just to agree with you. For your benefit then, I think it chance will improve for facing far stiffer opposition over a longer trip....happy

Of course you disagree and thats what its all about.

But you are suggesting my argument is ridiculous, simply because it is the opposite of yours.

Brownes it can be done. If you check the back and lay i've put up the bet, please feel free to match it if you so wish. Or are you brave enough?

Browne's -you're entiled to your view of the evidence - it's why we've got markets as you point out - but you are invalidating CCM and I's interpretation of the evidence and you eem unable to accept that we can read form because it doesn't arrive at your conclusion.

FFoD. Explained much better than myself!

CCM - Let's just hope we're right![;)]

to me its how you interpret his run. at chelternham, in the r.s.a long run made approx 4 mistakes and a blunder yet he still came to have a chance before the last before  he weakened  on the run in,reasonable to expect  those mistakes may imo  have taken something out of the horse .

indeed icant remember too many horses making mistaes in a championship race at the festival and still having enough in the tank to mount a decent  challenge, useually 1 or 2 mistakes and its goodnight race over ,if the horse had not made those mistakes would it not be unreasonable to asume that he would have finished much closer if not won the race and then we would have a clearer picture as to his ability to stay the distance of the gold cup .

or you could interpret that he just did not have the stamina and those mistakes and blunder did not make any differece and he would not have got the trip if he had a clear unblemished round .

i think he will get the trip o.k with a clear round and have backed the horse for the gold cup but all will become clear on the day good luck to all .

I'm quite surprised that you think his RSA run tells us he has no chance of staying in a Gold Cup.

Held up in last pair, blundered 6th, took keen hold and progress to track leaders 9th, mistakes 12th and 16th (4 out), soon pressed leader, led narrowly 3 out, mistake 2 out and soon headed, no chance with winner, lost 2nd last stride

He was pulling SWC's arms out at an early stage and he struggled to restrain him. Eventually Long Run pulled himself to the front and appeared full of running but faded in the manor of a horse that'd used up too much energy during the race. It didn't look like a lack of stamina to me. Add to that the horse made numerous errors, belting a few fences, it was bound to take it's toll.

He's going there fresh after a nice campaign and with a year under his belt I think he has every chance of getting the trip. He galloped all the way to the line in the KG. I know it's a completely different test but it's what you wanted to see.

Watching it again I'm surprised he even held on for third. Was so keen during the race.

Given his KG run,he really should have won the Paddy Power,and if that had been anywhere else i think he would have.He seems to have a darn good record at every track hes run at,except one.
Like i said earlier,make of that what you will,but its there in the formbook.
Fair reason not to take the current odds available imo

Kauto's Cheltenham form going into his first Gold Cup win was F.

Long Run ain't run on New Course before.

He's called Long Run, of course he'll stay [;)]

They used to call Steve Cram Bambi for the way he finished 1500m races - nickname disappeared when he got a bit older and stronger.

I think there's every chance he'll stay (predominantly based on his breeding) but would n't want to be too dogmatic about it - to state he definitely won't stay is pure rhetoric.

I think he will stay ok if he jumps well,but i dont think he likes the course, as his previous runs suggest,so on that basis i dont think he will jump well enough to stay sufficiently to win the GC.

Not sure about the Kauto argument Rease,he had fallen in a QM so we had no idea how he would fair in a GC,long run has ran there twice and failed to act well enough to win a a race there twice.

Best Mate (Was best at 2m initially) Kicking King (2nd in Arkle I believe).  Both won the King George and then went on to win the Gold Cup in the same year.  Kauto Star (Tingle Creek, Fav for Queen Mother)won the King George and then went on to win the Gold Cup.

If I was laying Long Run I would be very worried indeed.  However I not worried because I am backing him.
.

Point is though that those horses had not failed to act on the course.

Disappointing runs, yes, but failing to act on the course? Placed twice in two attempts. Way too keen to stay three miles in the RSA making numerous errors along the way and still finishes third.

You then look at his Paddy Power run. A five year old, conceding weight to some vastly experienced and battle-hardened chasers, running over a trip possibly too short. He was still only 4l behind the winner conceding weight. Also only received 6lbs from Poqulein and beat him a long way.

He most certainly has 'acted' at the course, that's for sure.

Wicketd....then if he acted on the course it is just putting up another argument against its chance....that it simply isn't good enough. I wouldn't even get too carried away with its KG win as KS aside the race was a hideous affair.

We'll all know soon enough.

Making numerous errors may be considered not acting at the course.
Based on his KG run,do you really think he should not have won the Paddy Power??
Maybe the last poster has a point then if you are right,the KG win werent that good.
Either way Long Runs Cheltenham form dont read that good for a potential winner of the GC.

There definatly seems horses for courses,imperial commanders two races in the king george he was beatin a total of 136lengths by kauto star so its safe to say imperial commander and kempton dont mix,its just a case does long run and cheltenham mix and the fact that hes a year older&wiser i think hel be hard til beat

There's no convincing those who have set their minds LR does not act and the 2 runs last year'prove it'...The Fellow was a KG horse that won a gold cup...Dessie...K Star...all appeared to relish a fast right handed track...Dawn Run could not win the gold cup as she was a poor jumper ...won a CH ...and fell in it's previous run over jump at Cheltenham....IC could not stay well enough for the GC ...winner of the ryannair and ppower...all 'exceptions' and all with their doubters before they succeeded...

Thank goodness we're only a week away before it starts...

In my opinion, stamina does not bother me, its just not good enough

Fistful,
i can only judge on what i have seen,and that is he has not ran as well at Cheltenham than everywhere else he has run.
So cos of that i am not prepared to back him at current odds.
He has to beat 3 horses well proven over course and distance,as well as a few others that have ran well there.
Not for me.

Ruby Walsh made a good point that he might be ground just as much as the course

Some horses just don't take to undualtions and Long Run is one of them. He went to Yogi Bresner and that put him right for jumping round a nice flat track like Kempton but back at Chaltenham he'll most likely get unbalanced for get himslef and walk right through one. There is also a huge difference between running round flat tracks whether they are in France or the Uk and staying 3miles plus at Cheltenham. Long Run looks to me like he hates the place and I even comanted that he never got home that day. That was over 2m4f and he most cetainly did not get the trip in the RSA

If ever there was a Gold Cup horse to steer clear off it's him IMO way too many negatives