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I can see him racking up more King Georges like Kauto,but unlike Kauto can see him never winning the GC.
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CCM has stated last year one of the reasons why it was so knackered in the 400 metres shorter novice race was that it was the end of a long season; it only had 1 run (in a 2 miler) that year on the way to the RSA!!
Eh? The horse had been trained specifically for the Grade 1 Chase it won at Auteil in the November. He had had 4 runs by the time he got to Chelts and was over the top imo. |
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CCM, from Jan onwards (ie. that year) it had 1 run prior to Chelt. Surely it can't have been over the top.
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What does the calendar year have to do with anything? A slightly odd point. Its about the season as a whole surely? Are you only looking at horses campaigns from Jan 1st onwards in your staking plans this year then??
Its all about opinions. Neither of us know for sure. But I feel Chelteham was a bit of an afterthought. He was tarined in France, specifiaclly for a couple of races in Oct / Nov... came over to Henderson when clearly in fine form and he won a couple of races in a canter. To keep a horse at that level for another couple of months is impossible. This year around, he has had a mucvh lighter campaign. Now admittedly the KG was the first target. But since that day everything has revolved around the GC. That is a massive difference from last year. I'd say thats indisputable myself. |
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Agree over the top for RSA. Will see a different animal in the GC imo
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CCM, simply stating that it cant have been over the top in that it had raced once in the 3 month prior to Chelt. The main thing that would put me off the is how completely drunk the horse looks in the last 50 yard last year. If it hits the wall at the same point this time round (and it'll probably happen a lot sooner as this year's GC is significantly more competitive than last year's novice) I can see him pulling up.
Like you say though, all about opinions.....and we've all been wrong at some point (although I have to go a fair way back to remember the last time I was wrong when I was this certain about an outcome). |
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Not surprised you think you'll be right Brownes. You do tend to be a bit one eyed when you get a bee in your bonnet.
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Fair point
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And you dont seem to underatnd the term 'over the top'. It doesnt mean that he is tired because he has had so many runs.
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I fully understand the term 'over the top'. However, when the horse was trained with Cheltenham in mind last year I fail to see how he could possibly have been over the top; unless you are stating the champion trainer elect doesn't know how to train horses.
You'd have an excuse for having your opinion if you didn't have evidence; unfortunately you don't have any excuse a there is all the evidence you need from 2 runs at Cheltenham. Conclusion: A: The horse isn't good enough (at least on this track anyway) B: The horse clearly has little chance of staying c: You can't interpret evidence correctly I am trying to save you money here. No good doing it after the event. |
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Brownes - I however have no wis to persuade you from saving what is a clear lay strategy - GL.I hope and believe you will be wrong.
On the evidence of racing style and previous cheltenham runs you would never have backed dessie to win a GC in a slog through the mud....you would never have touched dawn run after it fell at it's previous run at cheltenham that season. Generally the RH;flatter Kempton will usually not favour the same horses as the GC; 3m 2f....KS has surprised me a to how adept he's become at both.You are taking the 2 cheltenham runs as evidence he doesn't like the track/undulations - you might be right. I however believe that all last season he was adjusting to the english fences (on all his runs)...he couldn't get away with his mistakes at cheltenham as he could at warwick/kempton. CCM also raises the fair pont that for a young hors winning grade 1 chases around testing going at autueil may have took some edge off him last year. We saw a different proposition in the KG and my reading of the evidence is that he may nowbe more equipped and better schooled to show his true potential. Without mistakes and a better preparation I see him coming up the hill far better this year than last. |
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Fistfulofdollars....in Dessie's case he was so massively superior to his contemporaries that he had to fall in at some point. All of its Chelt performances were at least a stone below what it was capable of. I think in the case of KS it is just (or at least was) a very very good horse who probably had the ability to win at pretty much any distance. Those horses don't come along that often. However, and this is the crucial bit for me, neither of those horses ever gave evidence that they'd struggle with the trip. Long Run demonstrated that very clearly last season. I agree that the horse seems to have ironed out his flawed jumping and I don't really see that as being the reason why it won't place; just that it will be running on empty when they start up the hill.
Good luck though and we'll see very soon. |
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The horse wasnt trained with Cheltenham in mind last year. Thats the point I'm making. He was trained to peak in October / November to win the Grade 1 races he did in France.
I cant interpret evidence correctly. You cant even read a form book. |
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My good God. That was 6 months prior to Cheltenham. So I presume you laid it come March after such a heavy campaign?
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CCM's point is a valid one Browne's....it appears you are unable to balance your view accordingly and acknowledge that there alternative ways of viewing the evidence. As I have posted previously Long Run's record up to grade 1 level in France is arguably better than KS at a similar age (8 from 12 and placed in remainder).KS is exceptional...but my suspicion is that Long Run could potentially be up to emulating his record.
If you'd have place laid it last year Browne's you'd have been paying out.... |
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I didnt back him or lay him.
Brownes. You are always very argumentative and I dont see why. Whether you agree or not, any reasonably intelligent person can see the argument I am putting across. If you dont agree thats your prerogative, but to not respect it makes you look daft. I personally think the horse will handle the track, but respect the argument that sayd he doesnt. The horse contested three Grade 3's and one Grade 1 Chase between March and the end of May at the end of the 08/09 season. Then contested another Grade 3 and a Grade 1 in October and November. Thats 6 top class races on very soft going in the space of 7 months for a 4 year old. He was then moved to a different country and kept on the go to win races in December and February before going to the festival. If you prefer to look at calendar years, he had 8 runs in the year before Cheltenham. And fwiw, I actually spoke to NJH about this very point at Punchestown last year and he said he felt the horse had been on the go too long prior to the festival. You probably know better mind you. |
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Brownes are you laying my bleeding bet or what buddy?
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Goretski, absolutely. However, we can't do it via BF as on the lay side it always matches at best price (eg, if I offer 40s and 6 is being asked for we'll match at 6). Whatever way you want to do it I'm fine with.
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Can't Catch Me, I'm not being argumentative, simply that my view is different from yours. Like I say, we need different opinions else there wouldn't be a market. I'll keep quiet on the subject but I will be shouting from the rooftops when (if) I'm proved correct.
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Fistful....You are right, however....I didn't. The reasons for doing it this I've stated many times. As you think I'm being argumentative as I have a different opinion from you would you prefer me just to agree with you. For your benefit then, I think it chance will improve for facing far stiffer opposition over a longer trip....happy
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Of course you disagree and thats what its all about.
But you are suggesting my argument is ridiculous, simply because it is the opposite of yours. |
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Brownes it can be done. If you check the back and lay i've put up the bet, please feel free to match it if you so wish. Or are you brave enough?
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Browne's -you're entiled to your view of the evidence - it's why we've got markets as you point out - but you are invalidating CCM and I's interpretation of the evidence and you eem unable to accept that we can read form because it doesn't arrive at your conclusion.
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FFoD. Explained much better than myself!
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CCM - Let's just hope we're right![;)]
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to me its how you interpret his run. at chelternham, in the r.s.a long run made approx 4 mistakes and a blunder yet he still came to have a chance before the last before he weakened on the run in,reasonable to expect those mistakes may imo have taken something out of the horse .
indeed icant remember too many horses making mistaes in a championship race at the festival and still having enough in the tank to mount a decent challenge, useually 1 or 2 mistakes and its goodnight race over ,if the horse had not made those mistakes would it not be unreasonable to asume that he would have finished much closer if not won the race and then we would have a clearer picture as to his ability to stay the distance of the gold cup . or you could interpret that he just did not have the stamina and those mistakes and blunder did not make any differece and he would not have got the trip if he had a clear unblemished round . i think he will get the trip o.k with a clear round and have backed the horse for the gold cup but all will become clear on the day good luck to all . |
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I'm quite surprised that you think his RSA run tells us he has no chance of staying in a Gold Cup.
Held up in last pair, blundered 6th, took keen hold and progress to track leaders 9th, mistakes 12th and 16th (4 out), soon pressed leader, led narrowly 3 out, mistake 2 out and soon headed, no chance with winner, lost 2nd last stride He was pulling SWC's arms out at an early stage and he struggled to restrain him. Eventually Long Run pulled himself to the front and appeared full of running but faded in the manor of a horse that'd used up too much energy during the race. It didn't look like a lack of stamina to me. Add to that the horse made numerous errors, belting a few fences, it was bound to take it's toll. He's going there fresh after a nice campaign and with a year under his belt I think he has every chance of getting the trip. He galloped all the way to the line in the KG. I know it's a completely different test but it's what you wanted to see. |
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Watching it again I'm surprised he even held on for third. Was so keen during the race.
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Given his KG run,he really should have won the Paddy Power,and if that had been anywhere else i think he would have.He seems to have a darn good record at every track hes run at,except one.
Like i said earlier,make of that what you will,but its there in the formbook. Fair reason not to take the current odds available imo |
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Kauto's Cheltenham form going into his first Gold Cup win was F.
Long Run ain't run on New Course before. He's called Long Run, of course he'll stay [;)] They used to call Steve Cram Bambi for the way he finished 1500m races - nickname disappeared when he got a bit older and stronger. I think there's every chance he'll stay (predominantly based on his breeding) but would n't want to be too dogmatic about it - to state he definitely won't stay is pure rhetoric. |
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I think he will stay ok if he jumps well,but i dont think he likes the course, as his previous runs suggest,so on that basis i dont think he will jump well enough to stay sufficiently to win the GC.
Not sure about the Kauto argument Rease,he had fallen in a QM so we had no idea how he would fair in a GC,long run has ran there twice and failed to act well enough to win a a race there twice. |
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Best Mate (Was best at 2m initially) Kicking King (2nd in Arkle I believe). Both won the King George and then went on to win the Gold Cup in the same year. Kauto Star (Tingle Creek, Fav for Queen Mother)won the King George and then went on to win the Gold Cup.
If I was laying Long Run I would be very worried indeed. However I not worried because I am backing him. . |
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Point is though that those horses had not failed to act on the course.
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Disappointing runs, yes, but failing to act on the course? Placed twice in two attempts. Way too keen to stay three miles in the RSA making numerous errors along the way and still finishes third.
You then look at his Paddy Power run. A five year old, conceding weight to some vastly experienced and battle-hardened chasers, running over a trip possibly too short. He was still only 4l behind the winner conceding weight. Also only received 6lbs from Poqulein and beat him a long way. He most certainly has 'acted' at the course, that's for sure. |
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Wicketd....then if he acted on the course it is just putting up another argument against its chance....that it simply isn't good enough. I wouldn't even get too carried away with its KG win as KS aside the race was a hideous affair.
We'll all know soon enough. |
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Making numerous errors may be considered not acting at the course.
Based on his KG run,do you really think he should not have won the Paddy Power?? Maybe the last poster has a point then if you are right,the KG win werent that good. Either way Long Runs Cheltenham form dont read that good for a potential winner of the GC. |
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There definatly seems horses for courses,imperial commanders two races in the king george he was beatin a total of 136lengths by kauto star so its safe to say imperial commander and kempton dont mix,its just a case does long run and cheltenham mix and the fact that hes a year older&wiser i think hel be hard til beat
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There's no convincing those who have set their minds LR does not act and the 2 runs last year'prove it'...The Fellow was a KG horse that won a gold cup...Dessie...K Star...all appeared to relish a fast right handed track...Dawn Run could not win the gold cup as she was a poor jumper ...won a CH ...and fell in it's previous run over jump at Cheltenham....IC could not stay well enough for the GC ...winner of the ryannair and ppower...all 'exceptions' and all with their doubters before they succeeded...
Thank goodness we're only a week away before it starts... |
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In my opinion, stamina does not bother me, its just not good enough
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Fistful,
i can only judge on what i have seen,and that is he has not ran as well at Cheltenham than everywhere else he has run. So cos of that i am not prepared to back him at current odds. He has to beat 3 horses well proven over course and distance,as well as a few others that have ran well there. Not for me. |