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Will Starluck run in the Arkle?

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Replies: 502
By:
eric_morris
When: 27 Feb 11 22:52
Are you stupid, Captain Chris has run 5 times and in Graded races including against the Arkle first and second favourites? He is a large framed horse well equipped for fences and has jumped the Arkle course and trip beautifully in a fast run race.

Starluck has jumped once at half pace against some very average opponents and is small framed, lacking scope and size according to AP and was finding it tough at times over the fences also according to AP. The 2 pundits on ATR agreed with AP's comments and how he just doesnt act well at Cheltenham and the gap to the race being too short/experience over fences too low and wouldnt have him as an Arkle winner anyway as you dont win Arkle's on the bridle.

They should go Aintree with him according to people who havent backed him at 50s. Obviously they have a different view which is not in the best interests of the horse at this beginning of his chase career .
By:
eric_morris
When: 27 Feb 11 22:56
4 times
By:
brigust1
When: 27 Feb 11 23:18
I'm not ging to get into a protracted discussion with you Eric but if you think it is safer to run in a novice chase at Aintree compared with Cheltenham you are deluded. Loads of horses cannot handle Aintree even after running well at Chelteham because they go a faster pace and the fences are not easy. I suggest you look up how many fatalaties there are compared with the festival.
Not a nice subject, I know, but you keep banging on about the two.
Anyway I've nothing more to say on the matter, to you at least.
By:
eric_morris
When: 27 Feb 11 23:23
Horses dont run in Arkle's, the most demanding frantic race for novices in the calendar, having made their jumping debut only 2 weeks before in a half pace race. Your example is not relevant as this is an extreme case.
By:
eric_morris
When: 27 Feb 11 23:42
The other Arkle contenders have been jumping fences since last year and in Graded races to equip them for the race not just an easy introduction just couple of weeks before the Festival -

Medermit        5 chases
Realt Dubh      6 chases
Ghizao          3 chases
Captain Chris   4 chases
Finians Rainbow 3 chases
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 00:21
You're right Eric. Woe is me. How sad am I. Running a horse in a novice chase at the Cheltenham festival where they go a frenetic pace. Whatever next. I see what you mean now.
Next thing you know they will be running horses at Cheltenham that have fallen in previous races.
But you are right. I will get onto the owner and trainer forthwith and point out the error of their ways. They certainly do not have the best interests of their best horse at heart. Entering him at the Cheltenham festival for the past 2 seasons was a major misjudgement of catastrophic proportions and just throwing good money away.
I will, however, refrain from mentioning my bet just in case it persuades them to run. I wouldn't want that on my conscience.
I will put a word in for you though. If you don't mind? I think your efforts should not go unrewarded and the attempts you make on these threads to re-assure other posters where you support them, and to ridicule them when you don't is praiseworthy.
I can now rest assured in the knowledge that I have seen the light.
Praise the Lord.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 10:14
Matt Williams in today's R Post.

Starluck.
Irish Independent Arkle Chase
Starluck is not one for an ante-post bet, as connections have yet to confirm him a definite runner for the Arkle, despite him impressing with his attitude and fencing at Huntingdon on his chasing debut recently. Should the grey line up, then in-running punters should take full advantage by backing him at value prices pre-race, with a view to trading out for a profit in the latter stages of the race.
There is a suggestion he won't have the stamina to fend off a challenge up the hill, but he traded at 1.65 in Zaynar's Triumph Hurdle before finishing fourth, and was a terrific fifth in last year's Champion.
Punters shouldn't under-estimate him.
By:
wakey55
When: 28 Feb 11 10:27
Regardless if you think he should run in the race or not. I think the trainer has messed up big time with the horse.

The reason he has only had once chase start, is because this is definitely planB, the trainer has sensed an opportuntiy for a horse just short of the top class to win a top class race, as the opposition is weaker than usual.

Fleming had 2 choices in my eyes:

1) Go the bold route, take a prep race and then go to the Arkle knowing the horse would be going there after just one run. But could be facing a substandard field.

2) Hold the horse back for a full season of novice chasing, giving the horse the adequate experience chasing, but knowing that the potentially top class Peddlers Cross & Sprinter Sacre will be waiting next year.

I dont think anyone could argue whichever way he went:

But if he aborts the Arkle plan now, then he has basically done neither. Lost the horses novice status and blown any chance of his stable star ever winning at cheltenham.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 11:30
Wakey you have the benefit of one thing he didn't, hindsight.
His plan was always the Christmas Hurdle. He didn't know who or what would run or what the tactics would be.
Then, without the benefit of hindsight, he had to decide whether to go  for the Champion Hurdle, possibly one of the hottest for years, or go chasing.
Again, without the benefit of hindsight, he didn't know what the outcome would be and is therefore having to make a choice.

I think you are being totally unfair, unless that is, you stated all this on the forum before the start of the season.
By:
banksy
When: 28 Feb 11 11:32
I think wakey's post is eminently sensible. Once you have decided to go chasing, why go now if you don't then run in the Arkle? Start afresh later this year with a full season to prepare.
By:
wakey55
When: 28 Feb 11 11:52
brigust i do not critisice the trainer for anything he has done up to and including the xmas hurdle, infact the delaying of the xmas hurdle has been detrimental timewise to the trainer.

I mean from the time he has to decide whether to change plan and go chasing:

I was complimentary of the trainer opportunist seeking when thinking we'll switch and have a tilt at a potentially easier Arkle.

Its at the point when the horse sets foot on the racecourse at huntingdon and everything goes as nicely as he could have wished for, that he has basically committed to option 1.

I do appreciate that when someone as influencial as McCoy has his doubts then it derails your plans, but i think Fleming is at the point of no return. Taking in 1 grade1 in your novice season is a waste i think.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 12:33
OK Wakey. I,m not saying it wouldn't be disappointing if he doesn't run in the Arkle. Trust me.
When he elected to get AP to ride I thought he had done eveything he could possibly do. I'm sure he never expected AP to say what he said and you must give him credit for not immediately reacting to what AP said.
Similarly You eem to be saying his chasing career may be ruined. By running him now he is going to have a clear plan for next season.
Had he stayed hurdling this season he may well have been forced into chasing next season then, if all doesn't go to plan, reverting back to hurdling mid season.
It really isn't as straightforward as you say.

I want him to run in the Arkle only if those who look after him decide to let him take his place.

I really cannot see any other route they could have taken. There will be plenty of races for him next season if he takes to chasing because his is almost top class hurdler.
Just look at the 2 mile chasers, not that many stars around if you ask me.
By:
wakey55
When: 28 Feb 11 13:06
I know what your say Brigust but the way i see it, he is just short of top class and one thing you have on your side when chasing is the fact you have a novice season, which entitles you to just have to be the best novice that year not the best chaser. Which is a much easier assignment than running at championship level.

Just look at Sizing Europe, Tidal Bay, My Way De Solzen, Forpadydeplasterer. Since the Arkle i think they have won 1 chase race between them off the top of my head (i seem to remember Tidal beating Albertas Run at Carlisle).

I really think being a novice chaser is the ultimate opportunity for horses just short of top class.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 13:16
I cannot disagree with that and, if Starluck takes to fences they may look back and say the should have looked at things differently bu, and it is a big but, they don't know yet where he will fit in chasing.
It's a tough call, even now.

I'm more concerned with the use of AP for his prep. The trainer said he wanted the jockey who rode him in his prep to ride him in the Arkle, he was pretty certain about that. He said he would ring the agents to see who would be available and AP was booked.
My problem is that 2 days later AP rode Bellvano in a raceourse gallop for his retainer JP as an Arkle trial.
That may mean AP may be claimed for Bellvano leaving Starluck with no jockey. I would like to know what AP's agent told Fleming about his availability.
I may be wrong but I bet loads of top jockeys, if they were available, would be only too happy to ride Starluck in the Arkle.   
Then only 2
By:
wakey55
When: 28 Feb 11 13:48
it is a strange one, you can only presume McCoy has been allowed to ride Starluck but why has AP galloped Bellvano, possibly for his opinion, or maybe McCoy has said he wont be riding Starluck after advising them not to run him.

Brennan, Jacob will be looking for a ride

Possibly Ruby too.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 14:08
Absolutely, let's hope they are chasing it up.
I tend to think the trainer was taken aback by what AP said because they always had the Arkle in the forefront before the race and, to be honest, he couldn't have won easier.
Just grates a bit when it isn't clear cut. Then to cap it all the gallop on Saturday morning must have been arranged ages ago. So AP wasn't necessarilly available to ride anyway.
Of course they may be waiting on a decision regards Belvano to see if AP is free. Who knows?
By:
booster
When: 28 Feb 11 18:36
I read somewhere today that Bellvano is likely to stay hurdling. Not a Cheltenham horse anyway and not top class.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 18:42
Going chasing, it is about the timing McCoy advised it was too soon re the Arkle and they seemed to favour Sandown to continue his chasing education with a view to Aintree though AP's comments on his lack of size and scope and finding it a bit tough at some of his fences would be a worry wherever he goes. One run in a poor race 2 weeks before the Arkle is not enough when you look at the others in the race who have been chasing since last season and have between 3 and 6 runs, an average of 4 chase outings each going into the Arkle.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 18:43
and many of them at full racing pace in Graded races.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 18:46
No doubt when Fleming has had enough headlines he will tell everyone what is happening with the horse.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 19:09
Eric will you stop repeating your regurgetated garbage. Your sole support is what you believe AP said. You have no other reason to be on this thread now go away.
I think I have been pretty patient with you in this discussion with others putting forward their ideas in a rational manner. No-one else keeps repeating what every else knows.
I have never blocked a user yet because I welcome open debate and different views but a pest is a different matter and you are now becoming a pest.
If you have something relevent, constructive or important to say that is OK but do not keep repeating the same dogma.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 19:14
I have in all likelihood posted less than you on this thread ... do you think you have rights others dont on here idiot.
By:
Rondetto
When: 28 Feb 11 19:57
Sorry didn't get back to you sooner Brigust! when you wrote "Rondetto, with possibly, only possibly, Peddler's Cross, Oscar Whisky, Menorah, Dunguib, Mille Chief and Walkon likely to be aimed at the Arkle next season I think the owner and trainer would need the white coat men if they WAITED until next season compared to this"

Only possibly is right.

Oscar Whisky, Peddlar's Cross and Menorah wh oif beat in the CH they will make excuses for and go again, have absolutely no chance of ever running in an Arkle and Dunguib's owners are dead against even trying fences.

That aside no way will the totally inexperienced Starluck get round without a blunder or 2 at the pace they go at. Absolute nuts running him IMO.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 21:09
How many blunders do you think Finian's Rainbow will make then or Medermit? Neither are the best of jumpers, especially the former. Haven't seen Ghizao for ages so have no idea what form he will be in but he did look good when everything else was just starting out.
Not such a clear cut picture is it?
Absolutely nuts may be just a little strong.
With the CH we are all just guessing. I don't expect Biocular, Hurricane Fly or Dunguib to go chasing next season. The first two because they are hurdlers the 3rd because he will be going for a 2nd CH.
Of the others I think the route is still open and will depend upon the winners of the CH and the World hurdle.
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 28 Feb 11 21:11
does this mean rock noir wont run in the arkle?
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 21:13
And Eric, I have had enough of your repeated abuse so I have finally decided to do the one thing I didn't want to. I have bocked you.
It's sad that you eliminate yourself from open debate because this is a forum but enough is enough.
By:
booster
When: 28 Feb 11 21:14
Must agree with Brigust on that, holes in all the top ones, well worth having a go this year. Let's face it, if we have a better winter next year, the race will be much tougher but, due to this year's poor weather, not many have had a chance to get into the picture.
By:
Brownes Gazette would have won
When: 28 Feb 11 21:42
Brigust1, I feel you are going to miss out on the comedy factor that eric brings. Is latest reasoning for Starluck ran in a poor race the other day yet he backs up Captain Chris who ran in a 3 horse race where one of the runners pulled itself up and the other was about 18lb below it in the ratings; even then it ran as wide as it is possible to get without running off the track; it'll actually be amusing watching this run at Chelts.

Don't bar him, just learn to laugh at him.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 21:57
Excellent news you have blocked me, it wont stop me from telling you and other clueless posters like Browne's Gazette who only have regard for their own hides and bets and not the horse that 1 run 2 weeks before the Arkle which the Champion jockey commented on him needing more time, is not enough.

The leading Arkle contenders have had an average 4 chases each since last year and are well equipped for a very fast Arkle.

Starluck would hit at least 2 fences and probably fall going at a pace over fences he has not experienced before. You would both go suddenly silent, crumple your 50 quid slip, and the horse will have its confidence over fences ruined before he has even started.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 28 Feb 11 21:59
Eric is the 'betting shop bore' of the forum - never shuts up when he gets it right and blames everything else when he gets it wrong (though obviously he never actually loses money as he covers his positons or lays off at just the right moment every timeLaugh)
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 22:04
That's great coming from a gonadless arber like uncle puncle.

Bet you cant wait for what you revealed last season as your biggest bet of the year 800 to win 400 the Cheltenham going on the first day. You dont get any more boring than that you arbing parasitic tw@t.
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 22:11
You are only on this thread because you will have a free arb on Starluck and will trade for a profit if declared a runner. You wouldnt have the nads to place and leave cash on a 1/6 shot let alone this horse who would blunder his chances away half way around.
By:
Goretski
When: 28 Feb 11 22:20
Browne's the very man, do we have an agreement? understand if not!
By:
Pleasegivemeanailedontip
When: 28 Feb 11 22:35
Interesting point about 2m flat horses requiring most stamina and 2m chasers requiring least. I would have thought the stop-start nature of jumping and the actual jumping would have required more stamina.

In any case I still don't think Starluck will prove to be the best stayer, best jumper or fastest in this race so still cant see the scenario where he wins.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 22:44
You may be right Please. But you may also be very wrog.
Three times Starluck has run at Cheltenham and not once he been beaten by a lesser horse. The Triumph hurdle was packed with good quality stayers none of whom beat him. The three who did were Zaynar, Walkon and Mourad. In the CH he was beaten by Binocular , Khyber Kim, Zaynar and Celestial Halo. C Halo only beat him a whisker. The other run he bolted up.
In the Arkle not one horse in the line up would beat him over hurdles the rest is just conjecture.
By:
brigust1
When: 28 Feb 11 22:44
*wrong
By:
eric_morris
When: 28 Feb 11 22:52
Celestial Halo is not in the Champion Hurdle for the same reason as Starluck ... he would be outclassed. Walkon finished last recently and hardly represents better form than Medermit for starters. Mourad?

The whole world knows Starluck has not finished his race up the hill twice now. He is very small and found fences tough as pointed out by AP so that situation cant improve over fences where his size will be a bigger factor. Happy

The trainer needs to make a statement before the pocket talking reaches astronomic proportions on here.
By:
Brownes Gazette would have won
When: 28 Feb 11 22:55
Goretski, fine with our arrangement. Given you won't be there this time around you'll have to let me know how you want paying out should the unlikely (in my eyes at least!!) happen.
By:
bring on chelt!!!
When: 28 Feb 11 22:56
please dont ban Eric as every village needs an idiot!
By:
Brownes Gazette would have won
When: 28 Feb 11 23:00
Please....regarding the stamina to win respective races types at the same distance.....all you really need to do to draw the correct conclusion is think what type of flat horse (from a distance perspective) makes a 2 mile hurdler. The general rule of thumb is your flat horse that runs over 10f will be ideal for a 2 mile hurdler, while a horse that stays 2mile on the flat will (should) stay much further over jumps. All to do with the pace really. Like for like a 2 mile chase is run a fair bit slower than a 2 mile hurdle.
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