Kempes,Gold Cup winner?

There is the obvious downside in the lack of Chelts form which normally writes them off in terms of me backing them but I was really taken with him yesterday.

If you think back to decent grade 1 winners coming over from Ireland, they are normally a lot shorter than Kempes is right now. Not that they always win but I think 20/1 is a fair price. Especially when there are question marks over the majority of shorter priced runners in the field.

did give it a thought this morning but have put a line through it.
China Rock & Joncol are the best horses it has beaten so far & that is not Gold Cup form

It was rated 154 before yesterday. Having beaten a bunch of horses in the mid to high 150s easily yesterday he will be rated a fair bit higher going forward (probably around 161ish). I appreciate that is still a world away from 190 but an improving horse that has only tackled 3 chases over 3 miles is highly unlikely to achieve a rating like Kauto's.

I know its too obvious a form line but the line through China Rock means there aint 30lbs between Kauto and Kempes. Whilst not being top class Joncol and China Rock are not bad yardsticks on how far they have been behind decent horses in the past.

Kempes may not ever be any better than a low 160s chaser but he is currently on an upward curve and the better ground and an extra 2f could see even more improvement he could easily be up to at least placing in a GC.

the only irish contender, also mccoy riding, with have the horse starting at 10/1 max.

if kempes wins the gold cup i will give up punting. the irish hennessy was hardly a strong contest

souldancer - He was rated 154 before the race, obviously he's jumped up another 10lbs.

to be fair, i think the likes of neptune collonges could have breezed that race. 2miles 4 on different ground to cheltenham, and on a flat track is hardly gc material. tbh if i owned him i wouldnt even run him in the gc

true enough, my mistake. extra 2 furlongs, not 6

flat horses dont win gold cups. pandorama is the irish challenger.

First point,for the formbook queens(dont we hate them).
The top 3 rated chasers are kauto star 190,imperial commander 185 and denman 179.
Kautos stars decline is obvious,he was being pushed to stay in touch in last years gold cup after making mistakes,when he fell,he struggled to beat a 160 rated horse 1st time up this season(nichols will claim he wasnt 100%)and he again made mistakes in this seasons king george,when 3rd to the then 158 rated longrun,and the non staying 160 rated(at the time) riverside theatre.
So kauto star cannot win this year,as its apparent hes running nowhere near his 190 rating.
Next up imperial commander,big question hear is what sort of shape will they get him there in?,horses dont improve or stay festival fit in fields,very hard to imagine hes going to run anywhere near his best rating of 185.
Denman,of the three,hes the one apparently running to something like his best,conceding 26lb to the 156 rated(at the time)diamond harry,and 25lb to the 157 rated(at the time) burton port and be beaten 15 1/2 lengths,with three 156 rated chasers finishing 4th,5th and 6th(receiving 31 lb),it has to said denman seems to retain much of his old ability
Personally i thought this year was the time to have a pop at the national,as he was exposed as lacking that extra gear last year,hes not exactly  going to be getting any quicker at 11.
But nichols understandably thinks he can be the only trainer to train 2 horses that have regained the gold cup,and if that comes off,that will never happen again,fact.
So onto Kempes,unexposed at 3miles+,won quite well from the 155 rated glencove marina,but one couldnt get to carried away with that,after all the runner up had previously finished double that distance behind pandorama,a race in which kempes unseated rider at the 2nd last(apparently travelling reasonably well at the time).
But it has to be said,mccoy had given kempes an aweful lot to do that day,and to my mind,casey has a far better understanding of kempes than mccoy,but unfortunately for punters,its almost a certainty that mccoy will be in the saddle on gold cup day.
So conclusion,on the + side,kempes is an unexposed improving sort that has a decent turn of foot and some classy bits of form at trips that were to short for him,and will appreciate the extra distance in the gold cup,grounds not going to be an issue.
Negatives,hes a bit on the small side,his rating would suggest he needs to improve at least a stone +,if not more on what hes done so far,has been held up way off the pace,maybe not good tactics in the gold cup,as he can fiddle a few.
18.5 on betfair,worth a few quid,as ide rather have one going the right way,than 2 going the wrong way.
Ide say good luck,but lucks got little to do with it,its all about ability,natural ability and abilty to handle the undulations of cheltenham.

diamond harry wins it

Evra,never say never unless your that clever,but you answered this thread,so i guess your not.
crab patties,yeh,nice theory,fu**in idiot,get a job loser.
ramraid,last you had a winner was it?war of attrition,2006,fs,to**er,another waste of space,weak gold cup,you c**t,when has the gold cup ever been weak?,there's like 3 past gold cup winners in it,its probably the strongest gold cup ever,you fuc**ng ar**hole.

f**k me,no wonder the unemployment levels are so high in the uk,full of fu**in ret**ds

last gold cup winner that was flat bred was alverton in1979,kempes has massive stats to overcome.

^ Are you drunk??

Cheltenham??
Diamond Harry has won twice at Cheltenham....
Reasons he will be pulled up please

Apologise for any spelling errors

he wont get that trip there bbsband you knob, all this track form crap you are going on about ...give it a break