and were is he evs TWEEDLEDUM ? A SMELL PORKYS

Can't wait for Big Buck's to drift to evens. don't rate anything Grand Crus beat on Saturday, it was impressive to be fair, but Big Buck's always just does enough and doesn't need to cartwheel around twenty lengths clear

The champ is now out to 2.08. Blimey.

Formline through Restless Harry is particularly interesting imo- beaten 10 lengths by Grand Crus and 6 lengths by Big Bucks.

I'm not a big collateral form man, but everything seems to indicate that Grands Crus really is not far off Big Buck's, if at all. When we also weigh in that Grands Crus is clearly still improving and would appear to have more speed at the crucial 2-out stage of the race, it would be absolutely no suprise to me to see GC travelling easily approaching 2 out, BB being niggled, and for Grands Crus to put the race to bed from a staying on Big Buck's.

If the Ground is g/s or worse and it was 3s id say it was the EW bet of the meeting


I cant remember a year where the ground will be so vital in all the big four events

LOL, this will make you laugh, according to the going stick readings history, Saturday was quicker ground than Binoculars champion hurdle win

29Jan11    Chl 24GS C1HG2 22K  11-0  6/14 32L, Grands Crus[33/1]11-4  Brian Hughes  143 *  * 
  27Nov10    Nby 25GS C1HG2 28K  11-0  3/6 5½L, Big Buck's[33/1]11-8  Brian Hughes

Iknow its Arcalis,and he can be a bit iffy re formlines,but thats a lot of diffence in distance with only 4lb less

Budd, the only real value that collateral form holds for me is if it goes through a consistent horse. Arcalis is most certainly not a consistent horse!

Obviously a scintiallting performance. His hurdling is the thing I am most taken with. Very rare to see a Staying Hurdler quite that fluent. He'd jump better than most of the CH field for me.

I dont want to try and crab the horse in any way, but the only note of caution I would have is can he really out stay BB? He left the field for dead at the bottom of the hill, but actually never extended his lead from the final bend. Some may argue the race was won and nothing else was required, but I actually think he was tiring. I could see him pulling away from BB at the same point, but the champ getting back up. His speed at the key part of the race won him that, against BB, I think he'll need to prove he is an out and out stayer too. And I'm not sure he is.

The ground wasnt too bad when he won at Haydock. I actually think better ground will help him as it wont become such a war of attrition and he can use his better tactical speed. As I say, dont want to criticise him after such a brilliant performance, but I'd still be a BB backer myself.

Good summary, Can't Catch Me, and a very fair view to take, imo. Punchestowns in the WH and Mighty Man in the JS Hurdle at Aintree both got first run on BB and were able to extend away from the rest of the field going for home. But their game tactics only served to draw BB more into the race and they ended up being the target that, arguably, BB needs in order to tease out his best effort and to see him make full use of his raking stride and powerful engine in a demanding chase to the line.

If a line-up of the best horses beaten by BB was compiled, it would make a better field than the one Grands Crus beat at the weekend. It would include Punchestowns, Mighty Man, Kasbah Bliss, TFR, Blazing Bailey, Powerstation (on good ground at Cheltenham, a pretty useful stayer) and Karabak. On what he showed at the weekend, Grands Crus would be well worth a place in that field alongside BB. Whether he could skip away from them around the final bend quite as easily as he did on Saturday, is another matter.

Grands Crus seems such a game horse, it has to be questioned how much is left in reserve when he crosses the winning line. By contrast, BB appears to run well within himself and yet has still found a way to win at top level repeatedly, albeit in many cases against markedly inferior horses. BB lengthens so well when pressed in a finish that he probably covers the ground a little quicker than it may seem; I am not sure he is ever going to be out-sprinted in a finish in the stayers' division, other than over a comparatively short distance. If he is to be beaten for speed, there is perhaps a case for thinking this is more likely to happen through a speedy hold-up horse swooping late and mugging BB near the line. That is not really Grands Crus' style.

But it would be wrong to think BB's isn't vulnerable to a quality horse like Grands Crus. BB's hurdling under pressure isn't always the smoothest. He almost gave it away with a poor (flustered or rushed??) jump at the last hurdle when chasing down Punchestowns in the 2009 WH. Grands Crus may well have the edge in that department and it could prove significant if it comes to a tight finish.

Although BB has not achieved great things on the clock (a highest TS of a relatively modest 147), a widespread view is that he could find much more if pressed to in a more strongly run race. I think it likely he could find much more if such circumstances arose, but a note of caution would be that I am not sure he had that much left at the end of his race against Punchestowns in the 2009 WH, albeit that the race did climax with what was quite a long, driving finish. Grands Crus has achieved even less on the clock (early days for that one, of course), so we don't know just how much of a stayer he would prove if the conditions and pace of the race turned it into a really demanding test of stamina.

The point is often made that BB hits flat spots, which potentially make him vulnerable against horses that have greater tactical speed. The extent to which he hits flat spots may be slightly exaggerated. On better ground, in more truly run races, BB mostly travels very sweetly, as far as I can see. One potential downside though to riding a horse like BB who has such a big engine is that it is easy to get there too soon. But equally there is danger of over-compensating for that by sitting a little too far back and thereby making yourself more vulnerable to a horse that can quicken well from the front at key stages in the race. If the pace isn't particularly strong in the WH this time, Walsh will possibly need to be particularly astute with his timing and positioning of BB, if he is to cover adequately the danger of Grands Crus getting to the front and then quickening again in a dash for the line.

Grands Crus looks a fantastic prospect. At odds a little above evens, however, I would see BB at the bet.Worth keeping one eye on the other contenders though, if only because the two at the front of the market are creating such big prices about the rest of the field even before we know exactly who will line-up on the day. In the extreme case of having Punchestowns, Khyber Kim and Mikael Dhaguenet take up the engagement (not to mention Fiveforthree, Oscar Whisky and Solwhit), the prices on the day would likely look very different to the current odds about the front two in the market. Mourad is also a fairly generous price for a horse that is hard to assess against the English form, but clearly is progressive and may be improving to a far greater extent than his current odds for the WH suggest.

I was there on Saturday and was obviously very impressed, and having re-watched it was similarly impressed. However, I do think if the race was run in the WH like it was on Saturday, GC would give BB a lovely tow into the race, and then BB would power past in the run in.  Ruby has said he thinks BB would go close in a champion hurdle, so he is not short of speed himself, and the way GC ran so keenly, I think it will be difficult for Tom Scu to hold him back. After the race he said he just wants to please you and go faster and faster, so it could be difficult to hold him.
Also I thought Bensalem ran a great race and although I dont think he will trouble the front 2, I havent thrown away my ew w/o BB voucher yet. Have saved on the will hill chase at 20s tho after King intimated they could go chasing.

When will they flip-flop please?

i waz there at chelts and cheered grand c home and hope to do same come march

I have read this thread entirely and rewatched the last 3 races of GC, although he is eager to get on with things I would not class him as keen going and he certainly does not take too much out of himself early doors. He travels exceedingly well in his races and will benefit from a stronger early pace than he has so far experiences in handicaps and non championship races.

GC has the potential to win either by dictating the pace from the front or by tracking BB and waiting for a flat spot and then kicking on. If the flat spot does not happen then GC should be able to outpace BB as he seems to beable to quicken off a decent gallop.

I feel GC is now the bet of the festival and holds all the aces in this race.

nervous times for those who backed BB thinking he was a banker

he aint now,if he ever was anyway!!

i take it you mean the best 3m hurdler around.

I think we'll see the emperor Big Buck's isn't wearing any clothes this year.

Well thats hard to work out really,as you have to compare horses at different distances and hurdles and chases. i do know that BB is running in a less competitive area,and one that most agree is the less rated,certainly compared to Churdlers and Gold Cup and QM types.
So i cannot have any horse being the best,just the best in their field.

Big Bucks will have this horse for dinner when their heads go down.