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Cheltenham Festival
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17 Jan 11
15:08
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Date Joined:
02 Apr 03
10/1 @ LADS must be a e way bet that ....i personally think he will stay
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Replies: 157
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Tranquil Sea one to be on in this race
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Have to agree with denman85 here, Tranquil Sea is my bet for this
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at last some1 agress wiv me 4 a change!!!
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^ Tranquil Sea is a biblical lay IMO. Softer than soft - disappoints just about every time the chips are down and he's not bullying weak opposition in boggy Irish Graded races. As for Somersby, I have always liked him but am beginning to think he may just lack that gear required to win Grade One races at any trip. He is still unexposed at this one though and for me would be much the likelier winner of this pair.
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think glencove marina is outstandig value at 33s,was looking like the winner in the lexus until running out of gas,trainer has said the ryanair is the target and will appreciate the better ground.
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bet tranquil wen he won the paddy power great day that
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tranquil sea one a grade 1 last time out at punchestown
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in the punchestown steep at fairy
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Somersby must have major claims if running in the ryanair,unexposed as a chaser with grade one form at the track he looks as though a step up in trip will be no problem.J'vole looks the other value bet at the prices
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TomDeane you would seriously lay Tranquil Sea at 8/1? While he disappointed in the 2nd half of last season I think given his Paddy Power win and his form so far this year 8/1 is decent price.
Somersby is another ForPady if you ask me. Seems top class and seems that he would improve for a step up in distance, but I just think he'll always find 1 or 2 too good no matter what the distance |
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^ That was a very weak Grade One race though. He has blown out big time on three out of four trips to Cheltenham. His PP win came on desperate ground in handicap company. He just doesn't make any appeal to me in what will be one of the most competitive races of the Festival and on what is likely to be much quicker ground.
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The ground would be the one concern for me. However I don't think it's looking like the strongest renewal this year. Quite a few of those in the betting are likely to run in other races and I think he will be shorter on the day, possibly even disputing favourtism if the ground is good to soft or worse
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^ You could well be right - it might cut up a bit - but I'd still not fancy this one as I just don't think he is interested in hard races, which he'll have to be to ever win a championship race at Cheltenham. They just go so quick at the Festival that he quickly downs tools when push comes to shove - at least that's how I view things with him.
I'm quite interested in Punchestowns at 16s and bigger antepost. He was disappointing last year but had excuses and has performed very well at the Festival before. It is of course possible that he will turn out to not be as good a chaser as hurdler, but for my money he is still unexposed and has bags and bags of class. With 3m2f always considered likely to test his stamina and Long Run now booked to represent team Henderson in the Gold Cup, I'd think it's quite likely that he'll run here too. The potential reward justifies a small risk for me. |
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Not sure how you can say it doesn't look that strong a race this year as poquelin who was second in last years race has improved 9lb since finishing runner up last year as well as last years winner and third both contesting the race again this year. Combine this with the possibillity of up and coming second season novices sommersby and riverside theatre running and for me it looks a stronger race than 2010
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Is Albertas Run a definite runner this year - he could go for the GC?, Also he seems very ground dependent, Tranquil Sea has already beaten J'YVole this year. I have my doubts about Somersby at the top level and whether Riverside Theatre would be as effective round Cheltenham.
So given that, and we can't say for sure exactly who will run I'm not sure it will be any stronger than last years, just my view on it |
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Resner-you could be right wasn't being disrespectful to your point if it came across that way
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MC, no worries, didn't take it that way at all, you are as entitled to your view as I am, and yours could easily turn out to be the more accurate. The Ryanair is a tough race to weigh up at this stage with the GC and the QM more valuable option for connections to consider, not mention other races that may be more suitable for their horses
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i think a strongly run 2 miles is somersbys ideal conditions, i don't see him staying further.....getting him back to the jumping performance he put in at sandown last year will go a long way to seeing him produce his best form again, more so than tinkering with the trip.
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Tranquil Sea has run over jumps 3 times on good ground and won 2 of those including a grade one hurdle. Maybe he is better on good ground.
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just topped up there again £50 E WAY @ 10/1...AND £75 WIN @ 10/1................................
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Thought Somersby was going to be something special when i saw him at Sandown in his novice season.But been pretty dissapointed with him since,and his jumping just aint been good enough.Will never back him in any top race.
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wouldnt the jumping hold up over further with more time?
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possibly,he just dont look top notch to me.Not convinced he really enjoys his racing to be honest.
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Backed Golden silver at 60s.He is not far off Big Zeb over 2m who may well still be the best 2 miler around and seems tobe crying out for further.Having said that not a good record at HQ.
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and would surely want it very soft?
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Maybe not over 2m 4f also won on good ground at punchestown festival last year.
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oh right, yeh i guess with extra distance, 4got about that. 60s will definitely appear huge come march assuming no injuries
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The problem with Somersby is its trained by Henrietta Knight - and she's lost the plot. The horse is probably tucked-up in it's stable being hand-fed carrots and sugar lumps in case it gets a scratch on the gallops, or scared by a passing cuckoo. If it were guaranteed to reach the Festival in a condition to race then yes, it would have a 10/1 chance. But the chances of that are slim.
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Can only agree with the above. Trainer a massive negative these days.
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as highlighted by the weekender column today the ryanair has a decent ante-post punting shape as several high up in betting probably wont run. I've backed Somersby at 10s e-w so am hoping for a good performance on master minded on saturday to put them off the champion chase and also done poquelin at 5s as feel he'll be nearer 3s on the day
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WAT ARUN THAT WAS RYANAIR EASILY
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Wayward Lad/TD Gunner
Somersby seems to have made the last 2 festivals in decent nick. |
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Henrietta stuffed Wayward Lad's tedious head up his ass today. Great performance.
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When she gets the horse that can do the job she is more than capable as her record at the festival shows.say what you want about wrapping them up in cotton wool Best Mate will still go into the history books having won 3 gold cups,having been expertly prepared to acheive this.I see Jim Lewis has had lots of success since withdrawing his support!!!!!!!!!!
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He should run in the Gold Cup - seriously - the further he goes the better he gets - right age and profile he is bred to do it too.
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What's wrong with doing the Imperial Commander route...Ryanair 2011, Gold Cup 2012.
Simples. |
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flyingbolt and autocue:
Somersby is yet to win at the Festival (from 2 attempts), and the horse did not win today either. It was well beaten approaching the 2nd-last and it was only cos Master Minded idled in front that Somersby picked him up in the final 100 yards. The last time the horse tried 20f it was beaten at level weights by Mad Max - and we know just how good that horse is at that trip. I'll not put anyone off having an eachway play for place money, but he's yet to show he's good enough to beat Poquelin, J'y Vole or even Riverside Theatre (in my opinion) in the Ryanair. |
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I have no doubt he's "good enough" to beat any of those,Wayward Lad but not in the Ryanair.
I think 2 miles is his best trip. I don't think Cheltenham really suits him. I don't think he likes coming down the hill.He always seems to lose his place there. |
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But if he loses his place coming down the hill, surely the better option is the longer trip whereby he has time to make up the ground again after he has hit his flat spot?
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