THE RYANAIR............SOMERSBY

somersby has produced a near faultless display jumping wise at sandown...and not since........he didn't produce it when beaten 3/4 length by sizing europe in the arkle....and he didn't produce it when just touched off by masterminded himself yesterday......to go down by such short margins whilst not producing his real best jumping performance....doesn't tell me he needs to go up in trip......get him back to that jumping display at sandown with a better jockey i might add at 2 miles, and he has a chance.....it's so easy to say...oh staying on....up in trip everyone.

I agree about his jumping at Sandown and think it's telling that it was the last time AP was on board. He needs a very positive ride in my opinion, unlike the one choc gave him at Cheltenham. It was a shame AP was claimed for Captain Cee Bee before the Arkle as Hen wanted to keep the partnership intact. I think the jockey did OK yesterday, the horse just hit a flat spot at a bad time then came up the straight really well. He is improving and could have a chance on soft ground in the QM though on better ground I would definitely go for the Ryanair.

To many things on the wish list for me. A better jockey and faultless jumping is why BZ and MM have won the last three QM's, hard to see that changing this year barring accidents.

Somersby should run in the race he can win, not the race where if, just maybe, possibly...

In my initial post on Somersby, I wrote: "If it were guaranteed to reach the Festival in a condition to race then yes, it would have a 10/1 chance."
Should Be Studying has written: "A primed and ready Somersby would be very interesting in the Ryan Air."
To my mind, those statements say the same thing.

Henrietta Knight has only sent out 4 winners this season - from 112 runners. That suggests she's not doing her job properly. She's only had 1 winner at Cheltenham from her last 25 runners (over past 3 seasons).

RP Ratings have used Master Minded to rate Sat's race, with a basic calc of taking 7lb off his OR178 rating. Personally, I would suggest that MM ran a bit worse than that.
From what we've seen on the track, Somersby looks capable of running to 165, perhaps 167, but that level of performance over 2-mile won't win the QMCC, and it's debateable whether the horse can match that performance over 2m5f in the Ryanair, as he's not shown the level of ability required in previous attempts at trips beyond 17f whether chasing or hurdling.

Autocue: reading between the lines of your posts, it seems you may be closely linked in some way to Henrietta Knight or her stable and so you may not be able to look at her (recent) training record impartially. She is on record as being a trainer who "wraps her horses in cotton-wool" - so, highlighting that aspect of her personality is not an insult to her character.
And everybody, including yourself, uses a nom-de-plume; so you can hardly accuse me of hiding behind one.
Try typing "wayward lad" into google.

Saying "The problem with Somersby is its trained by Henrietta Knight - and she's lost the plot" is an insult and don't deny it.
I'm not accusing you of hiding behind a nom-de-plume. I'm accusing you of insulting a public figure whilst hiding behind a nom-de-plume. A cowardly act.
The real Wayward Lad had class. The book's worth a read too.

im still amazed that every punter who watches NH racing can see somersby needs that extra step up in trip, apart from the muppet trainer, over 2m you were knowhere near master minded , cant u see he needs the extra trip ffs

????????????

A short head is "pretty near" imo.

flying bolt what i meant was , 1f out somersby was 10lths behind masterminded , he only started to close the gap after that , we all know masterminded barely stays that trip n thats why somersby was catching him , a step up to 2m 4f in the ryan air is absolutly ideal for this horse m cant see how H K cant see it

Master Minded won over 2m 3f in his previous race and has won 2 Champion Chases. Where has all this nonsense about him barely staying 2m suddenly appeared from.

BTW IF YOU THINK SOMERSBY WAS 10L BEHIND 1F OUT A VISIT TO SPECSAVERS IS IN ORDER.

As for his best trip personally I think it is 2 miles. Doubtless we shall find out at some stage.

Nick Mordin has written an interesting page on his website on the Master Minded / Somersby race.
He seems to be of the opinion that Somersby is best at 2-mile (rather than 20f+) and quotes Henrietta Knight as thinking along the same lines.
If Knight sends Somersby for the QMCC, then there will be a lot of wasted Ryanair antepost slips.

THINKING AND DOING are 2 different things ., i am cammy glasgow and i am telling everyone on this forum SOMERSBY WILL RUN IN THE RYANAIR AND HE WILL WIN IT AS WELL

Imo this horse lacks tactical speed and therefore will always struggle to win in the top grade especially at the festival. It seems a pattern in his races that when the pace quickens he struggles and consequently pressure is put on his jumping and then he runs on when other horses are tiring and their strides are shortening. A step up in trip could be worth a try but I think it is likely he will prove tripless at the top level.

Anyone who thinks Somersby can't get 20f is in the wrong game. He could be a gold cup horse next season.

Cheers for that,Graeme.

I'll jack it in then after 40 years.

trainer says more likely to go for QM,and see no reason why she aint correct.Wont win imo,but if she thinks 2m is his distance,then fair enough.Wont win the Ryannair either imo or the Gold Cup,so may as well go for the distance where he has shown his best form.

I feel like jacking it in all the while Flyingbolt....

Win or lose and whatever race he runs in I'll be happy if he's given a positive ride. If he goes for the QM I think he'll be best off trying to set the pace in front and obviously soft ground would be in his favour.

Simple question, do any of the advocates of Somersby running in the QM actually think he can win it? It all seems desperate clinging to ante post hopes. You read it on other threads with people saying Time For Rupert or Big Bucks should run in the Gold Cup.

Somersby has run well in the two best '2M' chases in the England this year, of course the second one was actually 2M 1F on horrible Ascot soft. I do not think it was coincidence the latter showed Somersby in his best light.

Anybody holding a concrete view that he will not stay the Ryan Air trip is basing this on very limited evidence. A pre festival hurdle run two years ago and an over the top, everything going wrong Aintree run. If he does stay, it is very hard to see the likes of Poquelin or Tranquil Sea beating him. Of course they could take the easy option and try and beat Big Zeb, Master Minded etc over their best trip.

lets face it he's native upmanship in disguise personally if he runs in qm  he will be running on for a place  runs in ryanair wins

its no given that he can beat a bunch of 2 and half specialists,no way.its possible,but no more than that.
suspect that he will be a not quiet good enough 2 miler,who will probably step up next season in the hope that he can succeed over further.imo he will never be top notch at any distance.

If he runs in the QM I might back him for a place.
If he runs in the Ryanair I'll be laying him for a place.

So, on both sides of the argument no one really thinks Somersby can win the QM. This is also what any objective assessment of the racecourse evidence would lead you to believe. Stranger things have of course happened.

Everything I have seen suggest Somersby's best 'possible' chance for victory at the festival is the Ryan Air, for all it is a grade 1 it does not feature horses of the quality of Big Zeb or Master Minded.

I suspect that Somersby will actually benefit from the step up in trip, a personal opinion that can only be borne out by it happening.

For what it is worth I have backed Big Zeb and Kalahari King ante post for the respective races, I will also back Somersby if he runs in the Ryan Air, but not if he runs in the QM.

I think Somersby has just as much chance of winning the QM as he has the Ryanair. I don't think he'll win either, but he is progressing whichever side of the argument you fall on. I agree with those who have said the jumping is the key; if he gets into a rhythm and is ridden positively I think he could win the QM (FWIW I think the Big Zeb brigade are barking up the wrong tree - from what I've seen he has only ever put one QM winning performance together, which was last year, and the form of the race is worth very little).

Somersby has an official rating of 170. That makes him a very solid proposition in a QM that is, in my opinion, nowhere near as strong a race as many would have you believe. The Ryanair, on the other hand, lacks any superstars but is full of horses rated within a few pounds of Somersby's mark, and who are specialists at an intermediate trip. I really don't see the distinction as regards him having a better chance in one over the other. He could well improve for the step up in trip but he might also fail to (or not stay). I'm not one for backing horses under new conditions at the Festival of all places, so don't think the Ryanair is the way to go.

Tom,
what piece of form is worth something then?,as you seem to pooh pooh last years QM.Be interested to know what form is better since then.
Cant really see what BZ has done wrong when looking for the winner of this years race.

^ I agree that he has done nothing wrong since winning last year's race, but he's hardly a working man's price is he?

Value is obviously in the eye of the beholder, but to me he aint it! Master Minded is officially rated higher, Somersby and Woolcombe Folly are within a few pounds and Sizing Europe, Captain Cee Bee and even Tataniano are very unexposed at the trip.

Aside from last year's QM win, Big Zeb has beaten Golden Silver three times from three. That one is a very solid yardstick but he is not a worldbeater, and whatever anyone says about the improvement in his fencing, I still don't believe he is a totally safe proposition over fences. I believe a horse can be taught to jump if it is not a natural, but the old cracks are always waiting to appear when push comes to shove and a horse comes under severe pressure.

Off at a tangent here but with regard to Big Zeb I think the key factor is that B Geraghty has ridden him 9 times over fences. The only defeats were at Punchestown and Sandown. Only the extreme MM fan would say the last fence did not make a difference at Punchestown and Sandown was one of those strange ones.

The notion that BZ is a bad jumper is based on the QM fall when ridden by Choc and the last fence at Punchestown. Watch his races, BZ is a very good jumper. Like all quality 2 milers he is fast and low, so the rare fractional misjudgement tends to be race ending, as with all the great 2 milers in the past.

I'm on at bigger prices but the 3/1 nrnb still available is very fair

Ratings eh,just think,if the highest rated horse won every race,we would all be rich!!
Have to admit i aint big on ratings myself,just someones opinion at the end of the day,an opinion we can all form by watching races,and by watching these 2m horses the last couple of years their is no doubt in my mind that BZ is now the best.
Tom,you make a fair point as regards jumping,cos imo the only way BZ gets beat is if he makes mistakes,but 2milers by the very nature of the job are all prone to the odd error,even the very best,ask Moscow Flyer!!

Oh and Working mans price??
i believe you can still get 3 nrnb,thats bl00dy good for the reigning champ imo

If Nick Mordin believes Somesby is best at 2 miles then Somesby will saty the gold Cup trip without any difficulty. I have never seen anything written by Mordin that was not rubbish.

Somersby runs for all the world like he wants a trip, staying in at the end of the inadequate 2 mile trip. Master Minded, as AP admitted, went on far too soon in his last race and with a bit more restraint he would always have far too much toe for Somersby.

I have to say I think Smersby should be in the Gold Cup this year and he would have a decent chance, as he looks like a stayer to me.

If you are still in the Big Zeb QM camp (as most of the forum seem to be), at least you can get a better price now. He's still not for me (jumping probably cost him the race today) but I think 4 or 5-1 is a much fairer price. Slight concern would be that he does seem to excel when fresh and had a hard enough race today.

When asked to attack his fences, today as with nearly every time he has run BZ jumped superbly. After great leaps to take it up surprisingly early, the horse fiddled the last 2 with Geraghty sitting still. An interesting ride by the jock but better now than the big one.

It is six weeks from Wednesday to the big one and he took the same route last year. Always nice to win but nothing about today has too much relevance for Cheltenham. It will very likely be better ground, a faster pace and BZ will arrive into the race much later.

The one bookmaker that has pushed BZ to 4's also cut GS to 7's, quite an amazing interpretation of todays race and the relevance to the QM. Maybe they know something, usually the case!

best price 4 nrnb,same as i took few weeks ago!!
Not at ball bothered by that today,was always going to be vulnerable as he has not had an ideal break since his last run.will now be spot on for march,with 6 weeks being ideal break.jumped fine and same again in march will see him hard to beat imo

If you had a decent horse you wouldn't be scared of taking Big Zeb on. Golden Silver has tried a few times and it finally paid off so credit to the trainer. I would be confident of places being reversed at Cheltenham but all the more reason for Somersby to have a crack if the ground is on the soft side.

cryoftruth: I understand everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but to say everything Nick Mordin writes is rubbish is a bit harsh. His column in the Weekender is the only thing I read in the paper (I buy it for the results pull-out). However, for the Festival last March, he tipped the following winners, in some cases weeks before the Festival:-
MENORAH won @ 12/1
SIZING EUROPE won @ 6/1
WEAPONS AMNESTY won @ 10/1
BIG ZEB won @ 10/1
IMPERIAL COMMANDER won @ 7/1
And if my memory is correct, he only tipped 6 horses in all for the entire meeting. Not a bad strike-rate, and probably one you'd be pleased with.

The result on Sunday at Punchestown has put another questionmark over the form for the QMCC, but as much as I look I couldn't fancy Somersby for either the QMCC or the Ryanair; and the way the horse has been campaigned by Henrietta Knight this season, she seems to be aiming it for the QMCC.

Never one to name drop or divulge names but was told earlier today that connections are leaning heavily to the ryanair

i am 100% confident it will be RYANAIR as i have said from the start

He goes for the Queen Mother.

I can hear the sound of bettings slips being torn-up, and the muttering of curses.

Perhaps good old Hen has taken a page out of the well-worn trainers handbook called "How to mug the punter" and will change her mind and run Somersby in the Ryanair when her stablelads have laid off their bets on the QMCC, and managed to obtain 100/1 for the Ryanair?

Or am I just an old cynic?

She's not for turning. Fair play to her for at least stating their intentions, there's many a trainer who keep us guessing till the day of the race

markets not reacted

Somersby is a 2 miler,trainer knows it,and has now come out and said it.And to be fair she said after its last run.
Thats it as far as i am concerned.
And should be for all of us.

not for me budd , you believe wat you want m8 , i am telling you she will turn and SOMERSBY will run and win the ryanair, nothing concrete has been said

29 just been laid. Ia that you ,Cammy ?

bino 1000/1 ???? kicking king 1000/1

Bit different. They were supposed to be missing the festival altogether.

ok Cammy,we shall see,but it aint looking good at this stage mate.

i will agree with that budd it aint ? but you know wat happens sometimes in this game

indeed we do my friend,just never know.

Still using the words "most likely"...but not looking good! What happened to this wait and see what the ground is?

Cammy, dont like to say I told you so but it was never going to run in the Ryanair, has ran twice over the distance and old Hen and Bidd areof the opinion it does not stay.  The previous comments made on the forum about the horse lacking the gears to win genuine grade 1 contests may be true but the horse is a nailed on ew bet for the 2m race at the festival.

The rationale being
1. It is unexposed and has potential improvement in it.
2. Posted a career best last time out and although it still has to find on ratings, there wont be 3 too good for him and the gap is reducing
3.Chelt form in march over 2 miles reads 3rd in a Supreme Novice and a close 2nd in last years Arkle.
4. Looks a realtively weak Queen mum will master minded regressing and Big Zeb now 10.  We all know 10 year olds dont win championship races and hes hardly a moscow flyer is he ?

In short the front 2 are there to be taken on so why not with Somersby ?

PS I told u, getitupye ya guesser and I will have 5 crisp blue notes when we meet for a pint a week on Sat !

MASTER MINDED REGRESSING

Somersby was flattered to say the least to get as close to him lto, i am sorry but did we watch the same race? Did you not watch the race then listen to what McCoy had to say afterwards? Where i share the opinion that he will be staying on at the death, he wont be winning it. Rounding the bend at the top of the hill he will be most likely tapped for toe, find himself about 10-15lengths adrift running down the hill but is the most likely still to finish 3rd or 4th! After watching that race lto, that is the only opinion i drew from it.

Couldn't agree more ^

Beginning to think Masterminded may well be a good old fashioned bone fide Festival banker. Golden Silver, Somersby, Captain Ceebee can NOT beat MM, Big Zeb is the one who is regressing, Wolcombe folly needs to improve a stone or two to even get close

BIG ZEB REGRESSING 

Dear oh dear.
That cos he just got beat by a grade1 horse after running too soon for him ideally??

Absolute rubbish, no offence intended.

Big Zeb was beaten by Golden Silver for the first time after the umpteenth time of asking, ergo he is evidently in regression, what clearer sign can there be of a horses decline than one he's lorded it over in numerous occasion in the past suddenly turning the tables. It's not rubbish to suggest so(certainly not as rubbish about saying the same thing about Masterminded,whoever said that[:x]) Ten years old now told so it's natural enough.

Its a well known fact that BZ likes more time between his races(look at his form),about the time from now till march is ideal.

He was always going to be vulnerable on sunday,so with a nice break and better ground he will be as good as ever in march.

He was beaten fair and square on Sunday by a horse he's pi$$ed all over many times previous. Making excuses can be costly in this game but go ahead if you really must.

Yep,excuses eh,none of course to explain MM nearly getting beat by Somersby

At the end of the day i know what BZ needs to perform and he will have that in March.Only thing that could go against him is the ground,think MM will beat him on soft,but if their is good in the description BZ will win imo.

Anyway i dont want to get into a MM/BZ debate so i shall leave it at that and hope they both turn up on the day,and give us a good spectacle.

Fair enough. I might just point out that despite a poorish ride(ackowledged by AP himself) MM still managed to WIN his race and they may well have been Somersbys optimum conditions and he's no mug on his day either.
Roll on the Wednesday[:p][:p][:p]

buddeliea:

The excuses for Master Minded were clearly given by the jockey himself after the race, he was gobsmacked he gave it such a bad ride and said himself he was to blame for it almost getting beat. If you watched the race, knowing what McCoy said, you could see why, down the back straight fully 1 mile out he never gave the horse a chance for breath, he got MM to jump every fence big and bold and rode him out to the line. It was obvious that from the last, (of which the jump was just as good as all others) the horse was tiring and stride shortening. Somersby was flattered. Simples.

I also worry about Big Zebs well being since being beat by a horse i would have staked everything on being at least 5 or 6ib inferior to and which BZ has beat fair and square 5 straight times out of 5. After all, Golden Silver was not even jumping well early on in the race, some horses give up when making mistakes and he clearly struggled to get into a rhythm. Fair play to GS though, he clearly managed to and ran all the way to the line! The excuse that BZ was sent on too early in the race to me is clutching at straws but i do buy the excuse that maybe it came a little to quickly.

We will know in March wont we, but i am a big Master Minded fan, always have, but i am not as biased as i was last year when there was something amiss with him, the form is there to see this season.

I make no excuses for BZ getting beat apart from the fact that his best form comes with a break of longer than 4 weeks.
Its 6 weeks till his next race,which should be ideal for him, he showed when beating GS time before last how much better he is with the right time between races.To suggest he has regressed in the time from that race to this last one is the straw clutching imo.

Anyway,i dont want to go on about this on someones thread about Somersby.If you want to discusss this more their is a thread about MM 2 nrnb on the antepost forum that can be used for that.

^ Buddeliea, I think you are right about hijacking threads but will say one last thing as the conversation is flowing on this one and it seems more or less dead given that Hen has confimed the Ryanair is not the plan for Somersby.

While I agree that Big Zeb will be much better suited by the QM (I'm not a fan of his for this year's race but was not unduly worried by his getting beaten last time), there must now be a slight question as to whether he is in the form he was last March. Getting beaten by GS has at the very least put that doubt to the forefront of people's minds and, even without taking into account McCoy's error on MM, it is easier from a form point of view to make a case for the youngster Somersby being on the upgrade than the battle hardened campaigner that is Golden Silver.

Again, I agree with you that the gap between Big Zeb's last two runs was probably not long enough to be ideal, but this begs the obvious question: Why run him at all if he is best fresh? I would now be concerned that he had too hard a race the other day to be peaking in six weeks. The idea that a six-week break is required but a four-week break is too short suggests he needs the break of six weeks to allow time to recover from his physical exertion. But a horse that gets beaten is generally likely to have taken more out of himself than if he wins (particularly in these small field Irish conditions events that are rarely run at a breakneck gallop) as he has been asked to find more than is in the locker.

That would be the chief worry for me, but as a few on here know, I am waiting till the day to assess the ground before getting involved financially. I think 4-1 on the day under ideal conditions would be a bet, but Captain Cee Bee and Tataniano will be of major interest if it is good or better.

Seems like Somersby will go in the QMCC, I am not sure this is the right decision but we will see mid march. I feel that the QMCC is going to be much harder race to win with BZ and MM.

What I will say is thank you Hen for keeping the punter informed, I personally have no bet on either race for Somersby, just refreshing to know the plans so I can put a line through him for the RA. I may now go back Tranquil Sea for this one.

QM is the wrong race for Somersby. Shocked by this decision, and disappointed. Ryanair was his for the taking, and would have been my banker of the entire meeting.

Lots of adverse comments in relation to some honest and glaringly obvious comments.

I am a fan of master minded and big zeb but how on earth can you advocate betting them for the champion chase (best prices 5-2 and 7-2). 

Lots of people seem to still be preoccupied with the demolition job handed out in the 2009 champion chase which was breath taking.  After that run it was rated 186, it is now rated 176.  So am I making a rash statement that it is in regression ?  Of course not and I dont have to put 9 smileys after it to make a point.  Which is not really showing IT literacy, rather it is plainly a pain to view.

The horse peaked that day and produced a simply breathtaking performance.  Of course it wont have to run to that to win another CC but my point was that as a 7 year old french bred it certainly wont be improving and at 5-2 best price it is there to take on.

Re Big Zeb it is a 10 year old and would any of you smiley posters care to offer some stats on the number of 10 years old to win the CC ? It has been beaten by a horse it is fed up beating and clearly is not in the same form.  Watch its previous run, it emptied quickly after travelling supremely and at 7-2 it also must be taken on.

With such a large percentage of the market being taken by the front 2 there is value elsewhere and ew somersby is a steal.  It will fly up the hill and 2m of a strong pace is its trip.  How can anyone make it a banker for the ryanair when it has never won over further 17f.  Regardless of how it finishes it races there is a big difference from finishing a race of properly at 16f than there is at 21f.  At best those comments are guesswork and at worst they are simply ludicrous.

Henrietta knows here horse and imo correctly she has went for the 2m championship.  Off course it will be off the bridle at the top of the hill, watch it races and a blind man could tell you that.

I am on it ew and that is a value bet as there wont be 3 to beat him for the place part and the win bet is no forlorn hope. There will be a turnup in the CC.

Cheers Tom,fair points mate.

I am guessing that the trainer wanted the same gap between his last race and March as he had last season,and was prepared to risk defeat.After all he has not been beating GS buy a lot anyway.GS is a good horse in Ireland and has racked up some good races,so no shame in losing to him,especially by not far and not having things ideal.
Happy with my 4nrnb,but i do agree with you that the going could well decide this race,also agree that others besides the top 2 are not out of it.

Dado,
Dont care much for the 10 yr old stat myself,more interested in how he is performing,and imo he has been performing about the same as last season,which could well be good enough to win again in March.
The exception being his last race,where i have explained my reasoning behind that,and his previous form backs that up.
I will stand by that and see what happens in March.
If age has caught up with him,so be it.Personally i dont think so,but we will see.

That was a good post Dado Bear, it has certainly got me reviewing my position on the QMCC again.
There are a number of horses that are capable of springing a surprise should the big-2 fail to come to the table on the day.
I'm thinking of:-
Woolcombe Folly - had nasty fall in final gallop b4 the Arkle last March, holds unknown potential;
Somersby - for reasons you have explained;
Sizing Europe - Arkle winners have tremendous record in QMCC;
French Opera - is probably 7lb+ better than his OR156 rating;
Captain Cee Bee - included only to keep his supporters quiet.

I must admit, I was myself surprised that Henrietta Knight aimed Somersby for the QMCC this season, but the formbook points to that race as being his best option. However, best-odds of 8/1 today are not good enough for me, and I reckon that we should see MM and BZ as the 2/1 joint-favs on the day, and you should be able to get 10's (or more) on Somersby come 16th March.

Dado Bear

Plenty of 10 year olds have won the Champion Chase.

Royal Relief
Another Dolly
Rathgorman
Badsworth Boy
Marthas Son
One Man

Moscow Flyer won it as an 11 year old
Skymas won it at 11 and 12.

Fair point flying bolt but how many have been turned over and at short prices ?  Personally I am against 10 year olds in the championship races at the festival unless there are exceptional circumstances. Recent winners One Man and Moscow Flyer certainly fall into that category.

Budd I bet BZ at XMas and felt it emptied very quickly also and need to be against it.  Good luck with you bets though.

Wayward Lad, one of my main bets will be Somersby v Sizing in a match bet together with the ew punt.  I cant see it being anywhere near double figures though but will be a very happy bear if it is.

What were the "exceptional circumstances" in the case of those two horses iyo ?

clearly mrs knight aint looked at anything other than somersbys last run , over the champion chase c&d on dec 11th he was knowhere near master minded and even got beat by petit robin ,, once again he started to run on towards the end on the race but its gone now weve done our dough so lets take a look and get stuc into another horse ,,

Cheltenham Result
11 Dec 2010
« 1:55 » Keith Prowse Hospitality Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) (2m110y) 2m½f Good To Soft 13 fences 1 omitted
£34,206.00, £12,834.00, £6,426.00, £3,204.00, £1,608.00, £804.00

WATCH RACE - 20p
RESULT RATE RACE Show all comments in running Show all pedigrees
      HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR   
 
« 1   Master Minded (FR) 10/11F   7 11-7  Paul Nicholls  178 * * »
b g Nikos - Haute Tension (FR) (Garde Royale) Noel Fehily
  Jumped boldly, tracked leading pair 3rd, strong run to lead 2 out, driven clear run-in (tchd 11-10 and 6-5 in a place)   
 
« 2  8  Petit Robin (FR) 6/1  7 11-7  Nicky Henderson  163 * * »
b g Robin Des Pres (FR) - Joie De Cotte (FR) (Lute Antique) Barry Geraghty
  Took keen hold, tracked leader, led after 9th, headed 2 out, weakened final 100yds (op 8-1)   
 
« 3  ½  Somersby (IRE) 13/2  6 11-7  Henrietta Knight  156 * * »
b g Second Empire (IRE) - Back To Roost (IRE) (Presenting) Hadden Frost
  Reared over backwards and unseated rider leaving paddock, held up, outpaced when mistake 9th,

********stayed on from 2 out, 4th last, finished well (tchd 11-2 and 7-1)   *********
 
« 4  12  I'm So Lucky 22/1  8 11-7 t David Pipe  153 * * »
b g Zilzal (USA) - City Of Angels (Woodman) Tom Scudamore
  Led, quite keen, jumped right, headed after 9th, switched right to chase leader 3 out, weakened approaching last (op 20-1)   
 
« 5  ¾  Gauvain (GER) 11/2  8 11-7  Nick Williams  159 * * »
b g Sternkoenig (IRE) - Gamina (GER) (Dominion) Daryl Jacob
  Chased leaders, outpaced when hit 3 out, weakened approaching next (op 7-1)   
 
« 6  2¾  Mahogany Blaze (FR) 40/1  8 11-7 b Nigel Twiston-Davies  148 * * »
b g Kahyasi - Mahogany River (Irish River) Sam Twiston-Davies
  Towards rear, outpaced 9th, no chance after, kept on from 2 out (op 50-1)   
 
« 7  7  Kalahari King (FR) 9/1  9 11-7  Ferdy Murphy  164 * * »
b/br g Kahyasi - Queen Of Warsaw (FR) (Assert) Graham Lee
  Held up in rear, headway 5th, ridden and lost place 4 out, behind and eased 2 out (op 15-2 tchd 13-2)   
 
« 8  6  Oiseau De Nuit (FR) 66/1  8 11-7 b1 Colin Tizzard  146 * * 
b g Evening World (FR) - Idylle Du Marais (FR) (Panoramic) Joe Tizzard
  In rear, outpaced 9th, behind from 3 out, weakened run-in (op 50-1)   
 
« 9  dist  Kinkeel (IRE) 250/1  11 11-7  Tony Carroll  82 * * »
b g Hubbly Bubbly (USA) - Bubbly Beau (Beau Charmeur) Eamon Dehdashti
  Dropped to rear after 4th, behind when hit next, tailed off 6th, eventually completed (beaten 157 lengths)   
 

9 ran TIME 4m 1.20s (slow by 2.20s) Total SP 114%
NON RUNNER: Twist Magic (FR)
1st OWNER: Clive D Smith BRED: Marie-Christine Gabeur TRAINER: Paul Nicholls
2nd OWNER: Mr & Mrs John Poynton
3rd OWNER: Mrs T P Radford
TOTE toteswingers:1&2 £3.20, 2&3 £5.30, 1&3 £1.40 WIN £1.80 PL £1.10, £2.10, £2.10; Ex £8.30; CSF £6.83 TRIFECTA £25.60 Pool: £5873.49 - 169.15 winning units.
1st fence in the back straight omitted

Imo, moscow was the best 2m chaser I have seen in my life thus far, I am 38. One man was a horse who was tailor made for the ryanair and would have been unbeatable at the intermediate trip. It did not get 3m 2 at Chelt and its jumping was breathtaking, the way he attacked fences.

His display in the CC he won still makes the hairs on my neck stand up.  What makes those 2 exceptional was their quality and horses of that calibre can defy stats.  At their age they were producing performances of the level they were in younger years.

A valid comments would be that master minded having been rated 186 must also fall into the category of a great. However its mark is falling.

Personally I think mm can obviously win the race but it is not going to be improving, its superiority over its peers is diminishing and at the prices Somersby is as a rock solid ew bet possible for the festival as you can get.

Lets not forget Dave that Petit Robin is rated 163 and has been 3rd in a CC.  It was also travelling when coming down last time and in Geraghty words it "would at worst have been a good 3rd".

Petit Robin has place claims also.  The point of my posts are merely to point out that Somersby is an excellent ew bet.  I am not making rash statements involving bankers or certainties, which we know do not exist at the festival.  Not since Unsinkable Boxer anyway.

Somersby is young enough to still be improving and the trainer has made the correct decision imo.

Petit Robin is out for the season.

BTW Dave the December race was not over C&D. It was run over the New Course. The QM will be run over the Old Course.

cheers flyingb didnt realise that , didnt look tbh !!!

May i ask flyingbolt does that make much difference? It is still cheltenham, the fences are just as stiff with that same up hill finish.

It not the same uphill finish, SEATHESTARS.

The old course is a shorter uphill finish.

Very important point I would say, you just have to listen to Ruby and how Poquelin is a different horse over the different tracks. Another possible neg for Somersby in the QM, but we will have to wait and see.

only 17.0 now ? MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM was 36.0 2 days ago , any thoughts

And now the week before the Festival good old Hen changes her mind again!

do the right thing Henrieta RYAN AIR is the race

She really is something else.

On an entirely unrelated subject - does Terry like a bet?

JETCROWTS
Date Joined: 01 Aug 10 Add contact | Send message
When: 02 Feb 11 21:37 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: JETCROWTS's blog
Seems like Somersby will go in the QMCC, I am not sure this is the right decision but we will see mid march. I feel that the QMCC is going to be much harder race to win with BZ and MM.

What I will say is thank you Hen for keeping the punter informed, I personally have no bet on either race for Somersby, just refreshing to know the plans so I can put a line through him for the RA. I may now go back Tranquil Sea for this one.

Thanks Hen

What I wrote on this thread on 1st Feb 2011:-
Perhaps good old Hen has taken a page out of the well-worn trainers handbook called "How to mug the punter" and will change her mind and run Somersby in the Ryanair when her stablelads have laid off their bets on the QMCC, and managed to obtain 100/1 for the Ryanair?

Many a true word said in jest!

The DREAM is alive

YOUR JOKING the dream may still be alive indeed ........

should be studying


i never saw rudy regarding poqulin on different tracks could you tell me what he said please.

could this happen ? could it ??

All I can say is good luck and hope you backed him EW. Somersby is a very nice horse but what race he runs in matters not a jot. He'll be there at the finish fighting his heart out but he just lacks the ability to actually win a top class race. He will someday but probably when something runs below par and you least expect it.

matters a jot to me ronn ???? i want the ryanair for him

Jimnast

The Old and the New are different, I used to think it was just the run in and the fence positioning but listening to Ruby talking about Poquelin was quite enlightening.

He talked about the Paddy Power, 2nd and 6th for Poquelin on the Old, versus the Tripleprint and Vote AP chase a month later on the New course and two victories. How the latter suited Poquelin so much better, and how he felt different horses suit the different courses. As we know, the Ryan Air is on the New course and Poquelin was second last year.

For all that I'm on Kalahari King AP and now Somersby NRNB!

There is only one Champion Chase and Somersby has a pretty fair chance of winning it, IF ALLOWED TO PARTAKE!

Kalahari King festival NAP

thank you should be studying good luck with your bets at cheltenham.

SPORTS HEADLINES 

Somersby - will run in the Queen Mother Chase.


SOMERSBY TO RUN IN CHAMPION CHASE
Somersby will definitely run in the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase next Wednesday, rather than the Ryanair Chase a day later.

Henrietta Knight's seven-year-old will take his chance over two miles at the Cheltenham Festival as his owner, Camilla Rodford, is to under chemotherapy on the day of the Ryanair.

Knight told The Guardian: "The fact is that Mrs Radford is ill at the moment and is having chemotherapy on Thursday next week, so he will run on Wednesday so that she can come and see him.

"He goes to the race on Wednesday whatever the weather, whether it is raining or snowing or whatever it is.

"It may not be perfect, but it's not influenced by anything other than family misfortunes.

"I had thought that the treatment could be changed if necessary but it has to be booked two or three weeks ahead in London.

"It's all done very scientifically and it can't be changed."If they water the course and then it rains on top, that would certainly suit him as he likes the ground soft."

its become a joke now the horse running for the sake of it now, im sorry for the lady but us punters have been given a royal runaround placed a few bets yesterday with him in see if i can sweet talk bettingshop lovley round to changing my bets,
12 10s 8s up in smoke again shes a nut job

In out, in out, shake it all about.

Dear Hen,
I can't make it to the races on Wednesday, any chance you can run Somersby at Aintree instead?
Thanks

"He ran well under Choc in the Arkle" according to Hen. I thought he was given a terrible ride but will maybe be ridden more positively this time. I feel sorry for Hadden who had got to know the horse and has paid a high price for his stupid mistake the other day.

If connections wanted to run in the cross country given the circumstances regarding his owner then so be it.It may be the last cheltenham the owner ever sees and there are people on here complaining that they have done their money!I too backed Somersby for the Ryanair but some things in life are more important

yes have to agree carpet although i am dissapointed