I think Somersby has just as much chance of winning the QM as he has the Ryanair. I don't think he'll win either, but he is progressing whichever side of the argument you fall on. I agree with those who have said the jumping is the key; if he gets into a rhythm and is ridden positively I think he could win the QM (FWIW I think the Big Zeb brigade are barking up the wrong tree - from what I've seen he has only ever put one QM winning performance together, which was last year, and the form of the race is worth very little).

Somersby has an official rating of 170. That makes him a very solid proposition in a QM that is, in my opinion, nowhere near as strong a race as many would have you believe. The Ryanair, on the other hand, lacks any superstars but is full of horses rated within a few pounds of Somersby's mark, and who are specialists at an intermediate trip. I really don't see the distinction as regards him having a better chance in one over the other. He could well improve for the step up in trip but he might also fail to (or not stay). I'm not one for backing horses under new conditions at the Festival of all places, so don't think the Ryanair is the way to go.

^ I agree that he has done nothing wrong since winning last year's race, but he's hardly a working man's price is he?

Value is obviously in the eye of the beholder, but to me he aint it! Master Minded is officially rated higher, Somersby and Woolcombe Folly are within a few pounds and Sizing Europe, Captain Cee Bee and even Tataniano are very unexposed at the trip.

Aside from last year's QM win, Big Zeb has beaten Golden Silver three times from three. That one is a very solid yardstick but he is not a worldbeater, and whatever anyone says about the improvement in his fencing, I still don't believe he is a totally safe proposition over fences. I believe a horse can be taught to jump if it is not a natural, but the old cracks are always waiting to appear when push comes to shove and a horse comes under severe pressure.

Ratings eh,just think,if the highest rated horse won every race,we would all be rich!!
Have to admit i aint big on ratings myself,just someones opinion at the end of the day,an opinion we can all form by watching races,and by watching these 2m horses the last couple of years their is no doubt in my mind that BZ is now the best.
Tom,you make a fair point as regards jumping,cos imo the only way BZ gets beat is if he makes mistakes,but 2milers by the very nature of the job are all prone to the odd error,even the very best,ask Moscow Flyer!!

If Nick Mordin believes Somesby is best at 2 miles then Somesby will saty the gold Cup trip without any difficulty. I have never seen anything written by Mordin that was not rubbish.

Somersby runs for all the world like he wants a trip, staying in at the end of the inadequate 2 mile trip. Master Minded, as AP admitted, went on far too soon in his last race and with a bit more restraint he would always have far too much toe for Somersby.

I have to say I think Smersby should be in the Gold Cup this year and he would have a decent chance, as he looks like a stayer to me.

When asked to attack his fences, today as with nearly every time he has run BZ jumped superbly. After great leaps to take it up surprisingly early, the horse fiddled the last 2 with Geraghty sitting still. An interesting ride by the jock but better now than the big one.

It is six weeks from Wednesday to the big one and he took the same route last year. Always nice to win but nothing about today has too much relevance for Cheltenham. It will very likely be better ground, a faster pace and BZ will arrive into the race much later.

The one bookmaker that has pushed BZ to 4's also cut GS to 7's, quite an amazing interpretation of todays race and the relevance to the QM. Maybe they know something, usually the case!

If you had a decent horse you wouldn't be scared of taking Big Zeb on. Golden Silver has tried a few times and it finally paid off so credit to the trainer. I would be confident of places being reversed at Cheltenham but all the more reason for Somersby to have a crack if the ground is on the soft side.

Never one to name drop or divulge names but was told earlier today that connections are leaning heavily to the ryanair

He goes for the Queen Mother.

She's not for turning. Fair play to her for at least stating their intentions, there's many a trainer who keep us guessing till the day of the race

Somersby is a 2 miler,trainer knows it,and has now come out and said it.And to be fair she said after its last run.
Thats it as far as i am concerned.
And should be for all of us.

29 just been laid. Ia that you ,Cammy ?

Bit different. They were supposed to be missing the festival altogether.

i will agree with that budd it aint ? but you know wat happens sometimes in this game

Still using the words "most likely"...but not looking good! What happened to this wait and see what the ground is?

MASTER MINDED REGRESSING

Somersby was flattered to say the least to get as close to him lto, i am sorry but did we watch the same race? Did you not watch the race then listen to what McCoy had to say afterwards? Where i share the opinion that he will be staying on at the death, he wont be winning it. Rounding the bend at the top of the hill he will be most likely tapped for toe, find himself about 10-15lengths adrift running down the hill but is the most likely still to finish 3rd or 4th! After watching that race lto, that is the only opinion i drew from it.

BIG ZEB REGRESSING 

Dear oh dear.
That cos he just got beat by a grade1 horse after running too soon for him ideally??

Absolute rubbish, no offence intended.

Its a well known fact that BZ likes more time between his races(look at his form),about the time from now till march is ideal.

He was always going to be vulnerable on sunday,so with a nice break and better ground he will be as good as ever in march.

Yep,excuses eh,none of course to explain MM nearly getting beat by Somersby

At the end of the day i know what BZ needs to perform and he will have that in March.Only thing that could go against him is the ground,think MM will beat him on soft,but if their is good in the description BZ will win imo.

Anyway i dont want to get into a MM/BZ debate so i shall leave it at that and hope they both turn up on the day,and give us a good spectacle.

buddeliea:

The excuses for Master Minded were clearly given by the jockey himself after the race, he was gobsmacked he gave it such a bad ride and said himself he was to blame for it almost getting beat. If you watched the race, knowing what McCoy said, you could see why, down the back straight fully 1 mile out he never gave the horse a chance for breath, he got MM to jump every fence big and bold and rode him out to the line. It was obvious that from the last, (of which the jump was just as good as all others) the horse was tiring and stride shortening. Somersby was flattered. Simples.

I also worry about Big Zebs well being since being beat by a horse i would have staked everything on being at least 5 or 6ib inferior to and which BZ has beat fair and square 5 straight times out of 5. After all, Golden Silver was not even jumping well early on in the race, some horses give up when making mistakes and he clearly struggled to get into a rhythm. Fair play to GS though, he clearly managed to and ran all the way to the line! The excuse that BZ was sent on too early in the race to me is clutching at straws but i do buy the excuse that maybe it came a little to quickly.

We will know in March wont we, but i am a big Master Minded fan, always have, but i am not as biased as i was last year when there was something amiss with him, the form is there to see this season.

^ Buddeliea, I think you are right about hijacking threads but will say one last thing as the conversation is flowing on this one and it seems more or less dead given that Hen has confimed the Ryanair is not the plan for Somersby.

While I agree that Big Zeb will be much better suited by the QM (I'm not a fan of his for this year's race but was not unduly worried by his getting beaten last time), there must now be a slight question as to whether he is in the form he was last March. Getting beaten by GS has at the very least put that doubt to the forefront of people's minds and, even without taking into account McCoy's error on MM, it is easier from a form point of view to make a case for the youngster Somersby being on the upgrade than the battle hardened campaigner that is Golden Silver.

Again, I agree with you that the gap between Big Zeb's last two runs was probably not long enough to be ideal, but this begs the obvious question: Why run him at all if he is best fresh? I would now be concerned that he had too hard a race the other day to be peaking in six weeks. The idea that a six-week break is required but a four-week break is too short suggests he needs the break of six weeks to allow time to recover from his physical exertion. But a horse that gets beaten is generally likely to have taken more out of himself than if he wins (particularly in these small field Irish conditions events that are rarely run at a breakneck gallop) as he has been asked to find more than is in the locker.

That would be the chief worry for me, but as a few on here know, I am waiting till the day to assess the ground before getting involved financially. I think 4-1 on the day under ideal conditions would be a bet, but Captain Cee Bee and Tataniano will be of major interest if it is good or better.