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Cheltenham Festival
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THE RYANAIR............SOMERSBY
THE RYANAIR............SOMERSBY
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Replies: 157
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QM is the wrong race for Somersby. Shocked by this decision, and disappointed. Ryanair was his for the taking, and would have been my banker of the entire meeting.
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Lots of adverse comments in relation to some honest and glaringly obvious comments.
I am a fan of master minded and big zeb but how on earth can you advocate betting them for the champion chase (best prices 5-2 and 7-2). Lots of people seem to still be preoccupied with the demolition job handed out in the 2009 champion chase which was breath taking. After that run it was rated 186, it is now rated 176. So am I making a rash statement that it is in regression ? Of course not and I dont have to put 9 smileys after it to make a point. Which is not really showing IT literacy, rather it is plainly a pain to view. The horse peaked that day and produced a simply breathtaking performance. Of course it wont have to run to that to win another CC but my point was that as a 7 year old french bred it certainly wont be improving and at 5-2 best price it is there to take on. Re Big Zeb it is a 10 year old and would any of you smiley posters care to offer some stats on the number of 10 years old to win the CC ? It has been beaten by a horse it is fed up beating and clearly is not in the same form. Watch its previous run, it emptied quickly after travelling supremely and at 7-2 it also must be taken on. With such a large percentage of the market being taken by the front 2 there is value elsewhere and ew somersby is a steal. It will fly up the hill and 2m of a strong pace is its trip. How can anyone make it a banker for the ryanair when it has never won over further 17f. Regardless of how it finishes it races there is a big difference from finishing a race of properly at 16f than there is at 21f. At best those comments are guesswork and at worst they are simply ludicrous. Henrietta knows here horse and imo correctly she has went for the 2m championship. Off course it will be off the bridle at the top of the hill, watch it races and a blind man could tell you that. I am on it ew and that is a value bet as there wont be 3 to beat him for the place part and the win bet is no forlorn hope. There will be a turnup in the CC. |
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Cheers Tom,fair points mate.
I am guessing that the trainer wanted the same gap between his last race and March as he had last season,and was prepared to risk defeat.After all he has not been beating GS buy a lot anyway.GS is a good horse in Ireland and has racked up some good races,so no shame in losing to him,especially by not far and not having things ideal. Happy with my 4nrnb,but i do agree with you that the going could well decide this race,also agree that others besides the top 2 are not out of it. |
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Dado,
Dont care much for the 10 yr old stat myself,more interested in how he is performing,and imo he has been performing about the same as last season,which could well be good enough to win again in March. The exception being his last race,where i have explained my reasoning behind that,and his previous form backs that up. I will stand by that and see what happens in March. If age has caught up with him,so be it.Personally i dont think so,but we will see. |
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That was a good post Dado Bear, it has certainly got me reviewing my position on the QMCC again.
There are a number of horses that are capable of springing a surprise should the big-2 fail to come to the table on the day. I'm thinking of:- Woolcombe Folly - had nasty fall in final gallop b4 the Arkle last March, holds unknown potential; Somersby - for reasons you have explained; Sizing Europe - Arkle winners have tremendous record in QMCC; French Opera - is probably 7lb+ better than his OR156 rating; Captain Cee Bee - included only to keep his supporters quiet. I must admit, I was myself surprised that Henrietta Knight aimed Somersby for the QMCC this season, but the formbook points to that race as being his best option. However, best-odds of 8/1 today are not good enough for me, and I reckon that we should see MM and BZ as the 2/1 joint-favs on the day, and you should be able to get 10's (or more) on Somersby come 16th March. |
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Dado Bear
Plenty of 10 year olds have won the Champion Chase. Royal Relief Another Dolly Rathgorman Badsworth Boy Marthas Son One Man Moscow Flyer won it as an 11 year old Skymas won it at 11 and 12.  |
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Fair point flying bolt but how many have been turned over and at short prices ? Personally I am against 10 year olds in the championship races at the festival unless there are exceptional circumstances. Recent winners One Man and Moscow Flyer certainly fall into that category.
Budd I bet BZ at XMas and felt it emptied very quickly also and need to be against it. Good luck with you bets though. Wayward Lad, one of my main bets will be Somersby v Sizing in a match bet together with the ew punt. I cant see it being anywhere near double figures though but will be a very happy bear if it is. |
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What were the "exceptional circumstances" in the case of those two horses iyo ?
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clearly mrs knight aint looked at anything other than somersbys last run , over the champion chase c&d on dec 11th he was knowhere near master minded and even got beat by petit robin ,, once again he started to run on towards the end on the race but its gone now weve done our dough so lets take a look and get stuc into another horse ,,
Cheltenham Result 11 Dec 2010 « 1:55 » Keith Prowse Hospitality Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) (2m110y) 2m½f Good To Soft 13 fences 1 omitted £34,206.00, £12,834.00, £6,426.00, £3,204.00, £1,608.00, £804.00 WATCH RACE - 20p RESULT RATE RACE Show all comments in running Show all pedigrees HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR « 1 Master Minded (FR) 10/11F 7 11-7 Paul Nicholls 178 * * » b g Nikos - Haute Tension (FR) (Garde Royale) Noel Fehily Jumped boldly, tracked leading pair 3rd, strong run to lead 2 out, driven clear run-in (tchd 11-10 and 6-5 in a place) « 2 8 Petit Robin (FR) 6/1 7 11-7 Nicky Henderson 163 * * » b g Robin Des Pres (FR) - Joie De Cotte (FR) (Lute Antique) Barry Geraghty Took keen hold, tracked leader, led after 9th, headed 2 out, weakened final 100yds (op 8-1) « 3 ½ Somersby (IRE) 13/2 6 11-7 Henrietta Knight 156 * * » b g Second Empire (IRE) - Back To Roost (IRE) (Presenting) Hadden Frost Reared over backwards and unseated rider leaving paddock, held up, outpaced when mistake 9th, ********stayed on from 2 out, 4th last, finished well (tchd 11-2 and 7-1) ********* « 4 12 I'm So Lucky 22/1 8 11-7 t David Pipe 153 * * » b g Zilzal (USA) - City Of Angels (Woodman) Tom Scudamore Led, quite keen, jumped right, headed after 9th, switched right to chase leader 3 out, weakened approaching last (op 20-1) « 5 ¾ Gauvain (GER) 11/2 8 11-7 Nick Williams 159 * * » b g Sternkoenig (IRE) - Gamina (GER) (Dominion) Daryl Jacob Chased leaders, outpaced when hit 3 out, weakened approaching next (op 7-1) « 6 2¾ Mahogany Blaze (FR) 40/1 8 11-7 b Nigel Twiston-Davies 148 * * » b g Kahyasi - Mahogany River (Irish River) Sam Twiston-Davies Towards rear, outpaced 9th, no chance after, kept on from 2 out (op 50-1) « 7 7 Kalahari King (FR) 9/1 9 11-7 Ferdy Murphy 164 * * » b/br g Kahyasi - Queen Of Warsaw (FR) (Assert) Graham Lee Held up in rear, headway 5th, ridden and lost place 4 out, behind and eased 2 out (op 15-2 tchd 13-2) « 8 6 Oiseau De Nuit (FR) 66/1 8 11-7 b1 Colin Tizzard 146 * * b g Evening World (FR) - Idylle Du Marais (FR) (Panoramic) Joe Tizzard In rear, outpaced 9th, behind from 3 out, weakened run-in (op 50-1) « 9 dist Kinkeel (IRE) 250/1 11 11-7 Tony Carroll 82 * * » b g Hubbly Bubbly (USA) - Bubbly Beau (Beau Charmeur) Eamon Dehdashti Dropped to rear after 4th, behind when hit next, tailed off 6th, eventually completed (beaten 157 lengths) 9 ran TIME 4m 1.20s (slow by 2.20s) Total SP 114% NON RUNNER: Twist Magic (FR) 1st OWNER: Clive D Smith BRED: Marie-Christine Gabeur TRAINER: Paul Nicholls 2nd OWNER: Mr & Mrs John Poynton 3rd OWNER: Mrs T P Radford TOTE toteswingers:1&2 £3.20, 2&3 £5.30, 1&3 £1.40 WIN £1.80 PL £1.10, £2.10, £2.10; Ex £8.30; CSF £6.83 TRIFECTA £25.60 Pool: £5873.49 - 169.15 winning units. 1st fence in the back straight omitted |
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Imo, moscow was the best 2m chaser I have seen in my life thus far, I am 38. One man was a horse who was tailor made for the ryanair and would have been unbeatable at the intermediate trip. It did not get 3m 2 at Chelt and its jumping was breathtaking, the way he attacked fences.
His display in the CC he won still makes the hairs on my neck stand up. What makes those 2 exceptional was their quality and horses of that calibre can defy stats. At their age they were producing performances of the level they were in younger years. A valid comments would be that master minded having been rated 186 must also fall into the category of a great. However its mark is falling. Personally I think mm can obviously win the race but it is not going to be improving, its superiority over its peers is diminishing and at the prices Somersby is as a rock solid ew bet possible for the festival as you can get. |
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Lets not forget Dave that Petit Robin is rated 163 and has been 3rd in a CC. It was also travelling when coming down last time and in Geraghty words it "would at worst have been a good 3rd".
Petit Robin has place claims also. The point of my posts are merely to point out that Somersby is an excellent ew bet. I am not making rash statements involving bankers or certainties, which we know do not exist at the festival. Not since Unsinkable Boxer anyway. Somersby is young enough to still be improving and the trainer has made the correct decision imo. |
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Petit Robin is out for the season.
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BTW Dave the December race was not over C&D. It was run over the New Course. The QM will be run over the Old Course.
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cheers flyingb didnt realise that , didnt look tbh !!!
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May i ask flyingbolt does that make much difference? It is still cheltenham, the fences are just as stiff with that same up hill finish.
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It not the same uphill finish, SEATHESTARS.
The old course is a shorter uphill finish. |
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Very important point I would say, you just have to listen to Ruby and how Poquelin is a different horse over the different tracks. Another possible neg for Somersby in the QM, but we will have to wait and see.
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only 17.0 now ? MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM was 36.0 2 days ago , any thoughts
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And now the week before the Festival good old Hen changes her mind again!
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do the right thing Henrieta RYAN AIR is the race
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She really is something else.
On an entirely unrelated subject - does Terry like a bet? |
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JETCROWTS
Date Joined: 01 Aug 10 Add contact | Send message When: 02 Feb 11 21:37 Joined: Date Joined: 01 Aug 10 | Topic/replies: 37 | Blogger: JETCROWTS's blog Seems like Somersby will go in the QMCC, I am not sure this is the right decision but we will see mid march. I feel that the QMCC is going to be much harder race to win with BZ and MM. What I will say is thank you Hen for keeping the punter informed, I personally have no bet on either race for Somersby, just refreshing to know the plans so I can put a line through him for the RA. I may now go back Tranquil Sea for this one. Thanks Hen  |
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What I wrote on this thread on 1st Feb 2011:-
Perhaps good old Hen has taken a page out of the well-worn trainers handbook called "How to mug the punter" and will change her mind and run Somersby in the Ryanair when her stablelads have laid off their bets on the QMCC, and managed to obtain 100/1 for the Ryanair? Many a true word said in jest! |
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The DREAM is alive
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YOUR JOKING the dream may still be alive indeed ........
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should be studying
i never saw rudy regarding poqulin on different tracks could you tell me what he said please. |
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could this happen ? could it ??
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All I can say is good luck and hope you backed him EW. Somersby is a very nice horse but what race he runs in matters not a jot. He'll be there at the finish fighting his heart out but he just lacks the ability to actually win a top class race. He will someday but probably when something runs below par and you least expect it.
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matters a jot to me ronn ???? i want the ryanair for him
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Jimnast
The Old and the New are different, I used to think it was just the run in and the fence positioning but listening to Ruby talking about Poquelin was quite enlightening. He talked about the Paddy Power, 2nd and 6th for Poquelin on the Old, versus the Tripleprint and Vote AP chase a month later on the New course and two victories. How the latter suited Poquelin so much better, and how he felt different horses suit the different courses. As we know, the Ryan Air is on the New course and Poquelin was second last year. For all that I'm on Kalahari King AP and now Somersby NRNB! |
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There is only one Champion Chase and Somersby has a pretty fair chance of winning it, IF ALLOWED TO PARTAKE!
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Kalahari King festival NAP
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thank you should be studying good luck with your bets at cheltenham.
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SPORTS HEADLINES
Somersby - will run in the Queen Mother Chase. SOMERSBY TO RUN IN CHAMPION CHASE Somersby will definitely run in the sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Chase next Wednesday, rather than the Ryanair Chase a day later. Henrietta Knight's seven-year-old will take his chance over two miles at the Cheltenham Festival as his owner, Camilla Rodford, is to under chemotherapy on the day of the Ryanair. Knight told The Guardian: "The fact is that Mrs Radford is ill at the moment and is having chemotherapy on Thursday next week, so he will run on Wednesday so that she can come and see him. "He goes to the race on Wednesday whatever the weather, whether it is raining or snowing or whatever it is. "It may not be perfect, but it's not influenced by anything other than family misfortunes. "I had thought that the treatment could be changed if necessary but it has to be booked two or three weeks ahead in London. "It's all done very scientifically and it can't be changed."If they water the course and then it rains on top, that would certainly suit him as he likes the ground soft." its become a joke now the horse running for the sake of it now, im sorry for the lady but us punters have been given a royal runaround placed a few bets yesterday with him in see if i can sweet talk bettingshop lovley round to changing my bets, 12 10s 8s up in smoke again shes a nut job |
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In out, in out, shake it all about.
Dear Hen, I can't make it to the races on Wednesday, any chance you can run Somersby at Aintree instead? Thanks |
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"He ran well under Choc in the Arkle" according to Hen. I thought he was given a terrible ride but will maybe be ridden more positively this time. I feel sorry for Hadden who had got to know the horse and has paid a high price for his stupid mistake the other day.
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If connections wanted to run in the cross country given the circumstances regarding his owner then so be it.It may be the last cheltenham the owner ever sees and there are people on here complaining that they have done their money!I too backed Somersby for the Ryanair but some things in life are more important
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yes have to agree carpet although i am dissapointed
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