Personally dont think Geraghty will do anything but sit and steer till after the last.

quite a lot of pocket talking going on this thread.

its not you or budd,who always make rational conversation,but ive read through the whole thread and someone is doing it constantly...i shouldnt have said anything ,just let it ride as i must just be grumpy!!


personally i cant see why anyone could back captain chris but...for every backer there must be a layer..

finians rainbow is turning into this seasons version of somersby....where the fook is he???

I see Flat Out has an entry in the Irish Arkle (he was my other long rnage fancy at the start of the season), though surely Mullins won't go for a Grade 1 first time out again after MDH

at the risk of being assassinated by the fr supporters,could bellvano be njh,s no1 arkle hope?
a true 2miler where nickys always said fr best trip is 2.4m...or will bellvano be a flat track 2miler and fr will follow the true adage of needing to stay 2.4m to win the arlke?

n.h has always loved bellvano and i think he was very well looked after last season. imo finians rainbow has to be the number 1 arkle horse at the moment but bellvano could easily be ap's horse. i would think finians would be more of a natural chaser though.

Finians Rainbow, Ghizao and Time For Rupert have the best chase form so far. Time For Rupert will def win the RSA Chase in he gets there in one piece and I slightly favour Ghizao over Finians Rainbow at this stage. Finians Rainbow is more flashy than Ghizao but the Nicholls horse will be hard to beat. Last year Timmy Murphy stated that he thinks Ghizao is the new Well Chief, that's why I backed him antepost for this race towards the start of the season. He must think it's good if he says that about the horse.

Magic Carpet - I totally agree with you, I prefer to see it before I believe all the hype but to be fair Ghizao has done everything right this season. He ran ok on his seasonal debut and has since gone on to win two good races. He is still improving. Murphy said he didn't run near his best the last day and he still beat them well. If he improves again like they think he will, then he will take some beating come March.

I agree on what we have seen so far in his last two runs he looks one of the leading types for the arkle he clearly jumps well and handles the course and has as you point out improved with each run this season.The only thing i would be mindful of is that in his last two races he has beaten a horse who has had reported breathing problems in captain chris and that when tested at the festivals of cheltenham and aintree last year he fell quite a way short of the comparisons made by connections of late

So many people are crabbing Ghizao's form and that's fine if that is how they see it. Nicholls is imo the best chase trainer in the country and he has stated that this is his Arkle horse so Royal Charm etc are just moved elsewhere. Nicholls said Richard Barber thought the world of Ghizao. Murphy said he was not at his peak last time out and he still give 10lb and 4l beating to CC and 6lb and 5l beating to Henderson's horse.

Finally after his Cheltenham win Nicholls said he wanted Ghizao to do on the track what he'd been doing at home and then said he'd worked great with Master Minded. Now you can crab his form if you like. He jumps great, his trainer isn't running anything against him and he works with the Champion Chase favourite. The Arkle 2nd fav has beaten two horses in his chase career and even at that looks a worthy second favourite. No other horse has put up a worthwhile performance. I'm on at 12's and 7's and I still believe he will not be any bigger than 4's on the day.

I have backed Finian's Rainbow AP at 36's (before his debut); I thought Finians Rainbow's debut was electric, particularly given how keen he was early. He was almost going too fast into the first down the back, the jockey was just unable to bring him back on his hocks.

However, despite early scepticism I have been impressed with Ghizao in his last 2 runs. At the start of the season when there were murmurings about Ghizao I doubted he could be good enough. Exposed and well short of top class over hurdles, I could see that fences would improve him, but not to this extent. I still like Finians Rainbow and still think he's the one I want to be with (those latent doubts about Ghizao remain, and I still am not sure he will have sufficient gears) but IMO Ghizao should be quite a bit shoter than Henderson's horse on all known evidence at this stage -

Ghizao has track form which is invaluable, he jumps brilliantly, he will not be asked to produce it on the track again (with all the attendent risk that involves) before the big day now that Paul has put him away and he's had 3 runs which I believe might end up being be 1 more run than Henderson will manage to get into his horse (unless he comes out again quite soon; as noted above, there are a few suitable races to go for still).

If Finian's goes to Cheltenham with just 2 runs, I would be a bit woried; 2 runs would concern me, but also a 3rd run just a few weeks before the big day would too, as he disappointed last yr after having a run at Ascot quite close (about a month) to the big day. As Eric Morris has said elsewhere, we cannot ignore how lamentably Finian's Rainbow came up the hill in March after travelling like the class act of the race - he brushed through 2 out and flattened like a pancake. Of course that doubt can possibly be accounted for (trainer has said he thought he may have been a bit weak at that stage still; maybe he also did not stay) and I had that doubt in the back of my mind when I backed him in September/October, but i think supporters of Finian's cannot just brush over it.

So, I'm still with Finian's but it is not with total confidence based on all known facts at this stage.

I cannot recall too many two runner Arkle's - others must emerge so there must be value lurking.

wouldnt the drop bak 5f cancel out the worries over staying?

wasnt being sarcy if came across that way, genuinely asking :) and only 5 or so lengths behind a genuine champion hurdle contender and 1.5 lengths behind ascot gold cup winner, so speed seems decent. i still like loosen my load, hasnt stayed in heavy ground and on good to soft giving away 8lbs, think off level weights on good ground it could be a different story

just a hunch? think on better ground it will come out best, but then i guess aintree/punchestown could be better?

Medermit looks the clear value call on what ive seen at the current prices

Hi Paul - no, i didn't read it as a sarcastic comment mate, no problem :-)

Re Loosen, i'm inclined to agree with CVB. Though i cannot believe this is a 2 horse race, i dont think this one will have the speed for 2m.

has this horse been spotted !!!!!!!!!...becoming frustrating waiting for an appearance.

easy 2m nov there for the taking this weekend at kempton and henderson hasnt entered fr,he entered the mare!

the reason hes not running there is cos henderson sed that 2m round a track like kempton is far from ideal for a big beast like FR.i told u lot earlier in the thread he goes to newbury next weds for 2m1f novice chase then on th the arkle now CALM DOWN! everybody