Cheltenham Festival
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Finians Rainbow - Arkle?
Finians Rainbow - Arkle?
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I know how he was campaigned last year and I also know he struggled to get home last year. My point is that the Arkle is run at thorough gallop from start to finish and you need to have plenty of guts and stamina to see it out, that's why I don't fancy FR.
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FR going there on the back of a fencing confidence-buster makes him poor value imo
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Not worried about the stamina as a backer but very concerned with the way he jumped. Probably does want to be out in front doing his own thing but can't see Henderson and Geraghty letting him loose from the tapes and certainly worried about him winging the fences that matter when push comes to shove. I think Medermit is a big danger.
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The words good to soft would appear even if either you could barely see their ears or a group of Pik eys had done a tarmac job up the length of the home straight....
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Absolutely no worries about his stamina over 2m.No worries either about his jumping should he be prominent from the start,not sure he will lead with Dan Breen in the race,but as long as he is allowed to run at his pace,see no problems.
Looks a real class act and the one horse in the race (at this stage) that could imo be a QM horse next year. |
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its very interesting to read everybodys views on here and the strength of their opinion about certain horses.Fwiw for the last few years ive tried to "make a book on the Arkle",tho a few people will arguethats not technically true.
at the start of the season il have a few horses in mind for the race ,after watching hurdling campaigns etc and il try to get matched at what i percieve value a/p prices.As you can imagine this has led to quite a few ****-ups[injuries,horses that couldnt jump,different race options and just bad selections]but i enjoy it.It gives me something to look forward to during the flat season! Anyhow,the aim is to try and have a "green screen"when the arkle field lines up. This ,i feel ,enables me to view this field without getting biased[as if??!] Imo finians has enourmous potential ,is very scopey and will stay well enough up the hill but i feel his jumping will be tested like it hasnt so far,and he doesnt jump well enough to be my idea of the winner. Medermit-i put a line through him after his debut at lpool and then huntingdon.However the quickest way to the poorhouse is to get a fixed opinion and become stubborn.I have had to concede that his last two runs have brought about a great improvement in his jumping.My one concern is that i feel he jumps over the fences ,up and over ,where he may lose ground to a true 2miler who may just brush thru the top ,gaining half a length at the fences. Ghizao-everyones cribbing his hurdles rating saying its too low for an arkle winner,and its a low rating .His first run where kilmurray[rip] ran him ragged had me thinking he was no good.Nicholls immediatley said he would beat the winner next time as Ghizao would improve greatly.To be fair he has improved ,winning around chelt and his jumping displays have been the best ive seen this season.Will go there fresh and have gained vital course experience must be a major player.Will soft ground be important to his chance? Captain chris-while theres no doubt hes a cracking horse im not keen on a horse who jumps so markedly rh on a lh track,i feel he could be a punchestown[rh ]horse Realt dubh-won 2grade ones already..bit contentious i think ,how many grade 1 nov chases have been run in england this season?Not cribbing his performances mind,he jumps well ,stays and will battle,i just dont think hes good enough.I was keener on flat out who fell in the irish arkle that realt dubh won. Surfing-trainer says he wont run if finians runs . nadiya de la vega-not good enough DAN breen-good round of jumping until nearly uprooting the last,wouldnt imagine he,d be good enough in a normal year but if anyone can improve a horse enough itl be pipe. Williams wishes-could yet be a player at a price,improving but still has too.needs watched closely. If you have read this and if it sounds self-indulgent im sorry,just rambling on.my thoughts are no better than anyone elses...after all my initial fancies were..loosen my load,arvika legionnaire,flat out etc.Best wishes to the connections of horses who are/were ruled out and i hope they return fit and well. |
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I read it ftm.
I guess from all your views if you had to side with one horse from the current line-up it would be Ghizao. He'd be my pick now also and I have him covered along with FR. Royal Charm was my loser in the race. |
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if i had to choose id choose gizao .
Royal charm looked a player even when he fell fto.just looks slow now doesnt he? i delibrately omitted starluck until hes entered. i forgot to mention i fancied notus dltour /ronaldo des mottes early,still think they should have went chasing |
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One horse which does interetst me is Tullamore Dew as look very good value on his Medermit form line and conceding weight to Mamlook. Anytone views o if the Jewson more likely?
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I was a tad nervous when Starluck was going chasing but today didnt look that impressive to me. The top 3 in the betting still look correct to me
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what was wrong with that today?
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Just didnt think he jumped with authority and showed the class over the bigger obstacles that you need. It is really hard to judge on one run and like the bookies there are very polarised views from us all today. A cracking prospect but just not for me...each to his own and good luck if you back him. It is a wide open Arkle but not one for my shortlist...
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i dont think he will run anyway,but his jumping today was ok imo,and were he to repeat that in the Arkle he would not be far away imo.
looks to me though that they will go elsewhere with him after giving him more experience,with a view to next season. |
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Finians Rainbow (4) , Medermit (4) , Ghizao (5) , Realt Dubh (10) , Starluck (12) , Captain Chris (15) , Dan Breen (33) , Mikael DHaguenet (33) , Rock Noir (33) , Noble Prince (35) , Bellvano (40) , Giorgio Quercus (49) , Blazing Tempo (50) , Stagecoach Pearl (66) , Williams Wishes (66) , West With The Wind (100) , Tullamore Dew (103) , Cadoudalas (119) , Pepe Simo (119) , Phidippides (150) - Others 224 or more
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Noted Tullamore heading elsewhere but one to watch if Medermit does run well....
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BJG latest blog.....
Friday was one of those spring mornings that you dream about in the depths of winter. It was sharp but sunny and the horses were at the top of their game on the schooling ground. BARROWS BIG GUNS ALL COMING TO THE BOIL FINIAN'S RAINBOW was very good and OSCAR WHISKY schooled up well and felt great - the latter and BINOCULAR benefited from their away day at Kempton on Monday COME ON FINIANS!!!!!!!!!!! |
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Paid a nice complement by Tail of the Banks good run at Newbury this afternoon.
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If FINIANS gets his jumping sorted from outset and Barry gets him settled, think he will simply be too fast for staying on Medermit up the hill.
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yes another form boost for FR.albeit over 2m4f.
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Tail Of The Bank would have won if it got the inside rail as well IMO and it's a very well thought of horse. Warwick was far too tight for him though as he's a galloper. From what I can see of it Finians hasn't beaten a lot but he's beaten some very good horses.
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Really???
Struggle to see how its a boost, dont think its a let down, but nothing more personally. TOTB off 133 over 4f further than Warwick (i believe)... cant see how thats a boost. Horse got to within an eased down Finians 11l over an inadequate trip is how I read it. Think we learnt nothing yesterday personally. |
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There is not much to go on is there. Every race Finians has been entered in trainers have dodged the races. But the horses that are coming out of the races are doing well. Don't forget Tail Of The Bank beat Surfing who has form that ties in with Captain Chris and Ghizao over 2 miles. And if your gona start talking about 2 miles 4 it's the only trip Medermit has even looked comfortable over. It may not be a huge form boost but it's nice to see horses running very good races that have finished in behind.
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Good points there.
Funny how people have a go at FR form when beating horses that stay further,yet use the same argument to big up Medermit!! |
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FR form over fences is at 2m,Medermits best form over fences is 2 and half.
the Arkle is a 2m race. Medermit backers will say it helps to stay a bit further to win an Arkle,and they may have a point,but FR stayed a bit further over hurdles. If you look at both horses this season over the Arkle distance you will see that FR comes out better. |
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I cannot personally have FR, i am convinced KILMURRY was going to make him ask a few questions before becoming injured lto and as kilmurry is no mug, i wouldn't have thought he was up to arkle standard though admittedly was as short as 32 on here for it at one stage in the winter.
I am a GHIZAO/MEDERMIT man, have to having backed them at 12s and 6s respectively. Good luck though to all who play or have played! |
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personally think its between FR and Realt Dubh,with Dan Breen an interesting outsider.
Reckon one of us will have the winner Seathestars  |
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I am with you there with Dan Breen bud, and was of the thinking about having a small saver on realt dubh before his last run. That kinda put me off a bit. He would not have beaten flat out if that one had stood up. Also he seems to have a preference for soft ground. Not for me mate.
I do think the race will cut up quite a lot though, cannot see there being more than 8 runners, and if more they will be made up of 100/1ers trying to see a bit of that prize money and to give their owners a day out. So am guessing maybe i should play him at 9s and dan breen at 20s anyways as their surely gonna be very much shorter if turning up! With the exception of FR i could end up with a less than 50% book and backed all the possible winners/runners of this race (if im right [smiley:crazy]) |
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you may be right re Flat out,but then to be fair he was being touted as having a good chance in the Arkle at the time.
Not easy with these novices who should all be improving,some quicker than others!! Makes it even more tricky when their dont seem to be any real outstanding form from any one horse. |
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Notice the Rp tommorow...FR?
CHELTENHAM INSIGHT: Barry Geraghty rates one of his festival rides up there with an all-time great. Find out who it is in an unmissable interview with Steve Dennis |
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Big Zeb imo
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More I think about it I just keep coming back to Ghizao now. Trainers opinion os totally different to the Owners.
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Sintonian, I agree re. Hizao being a live danger. It looks the the top 3 in the betting have the best form by some distance
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the problem for me mate is that im on at 33/1 like yourself(layed off at 6), but for some reason cant see him winning.
 You get the feeling a fall is around the corner but I sincerly hope not.Ghizao is simply the best jumper in the race imo which is why im on him aswell, but it's actually very competitive despite some people saying it is a weak renewal. Ruby Walsh on RUK tomorrow,fwiw. |
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Notice the Rp tommorow...FR?
CHELTENHAM INSIGHT: Barry Geraghty rates one of his festival rides up there with an all-time great. Find out who it is in an unmissable interview with Steve Dennis Big Zeb going for second champion chase would equal Moscow etc etc |
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BIG ZEB is no Moscow Flyer.
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The best since though!!
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Sintonian you could be right and not laying off may be greedy but if the wife gets a new bathroom i can have as much fun as i like!! still resisting the lay button
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So near and yet so far
Traded at 1.5 in running  |
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Been saying all week the 2 lays of the meeting were Cue Card and Medermit and the 2 best bets were Spirit Son and Finian's Rainbow.
Hate being smart and stupid in the same races |
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Yep,so near yet so fair,but at least we were on the 2m chaser,unlike Medermit backers.
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