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a fast run Arkle will see medermit struggle with his jumping imo,and if they let FR go out in front thats what could well happen.
way i see it is should they decide to race from the front,a good round of jumping will see FR just run them ragged,however he has to jump better than yesterday for sure.I think a more positive ride will see him jumping a lot better and he should settle better being allowed to do what HE wants,rather than the jockey trying to tell him what to do as happened yesterday. I agree with those who say he could fall,but then so could any of them,thats the nature of 2m chasing,as some of the great 2 milers will testify!! Ghizao is probably the least likely to fail in the jumping department on what i have seen,but i really dont think he is the same class as FR. So,front running and a good round of jumping will imo see FR win and fairly comfortably. I now have to choose one as a saver in case i am wrong!! |
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As one who has no financial interest in the race, my thoughts are -
FR is a clumsy jumper who shows little sign of having the athleticism to become a top chaser. He neither stands off his fences and attacks them, nor fiddles them with any alacrity. There is also the point that, while he has been brought back in trip this season because his trainer and jockey felt he didn't quite see out the trip over 2m4f in top company, there is, as yet, no evidence that 2 miles in the Arkle will see him to best advantage. The thought that, racing over the toughest track at the fastest speed he's ever had to go will transform a jumper who seems to be guessing his way around at present is, in my view, fanciful, though, if I'd backed him at 33/1, I'd be clinging onto that hope with fanatical fervour, as his supporters are. It's a weak Arkle this year, but the winner lies elsewhere. |
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yes cyclops....but you do have a lop-sided view!!
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all about opinions cyclops,but i suggest you watch his first 2 runs if you think he cant jump
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Just watched them myself.
if thats not jumping i give up. in both races he went out in front,bowling along and jumping in the main really well and quiet bold at some.he reached for a couple,1 in each race,he hit the top of 1,and was a bit guessy at 1 or 2(well he is a novice!!).Apart from that no problem. Really think anyone who is concerned with his jumping should watch them 2 races. Its made me more certain that he has to go out in front,thats what he wants,and they will imo get the best out of him by doing that.Plus he will also have BG back on board,which to me is very important for the horses chances. |
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There is an awful lot of pocket talk going on here,FR backers are forgiving yesterdays run and Medermits backers are forgiving his two runs, personally I like to see horses improving like Medermit, Realt Dubh and Ghizao, and if Eric could take his blinkers off and stop talking s##t it would make a great thread.
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Medermits first two runs,
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Buddeliea, his first two races were better rounds, granted, but still to my eyes, he jumps low quite often and lurches into his fences rather than measuring them.
He's really only beaten about four or five horses so far, and nothing that would have a prayer in an Arkle. I'm very fond of the horse, and thought he's win last year's Neptune, but he wouldn't be going to Cheltenham if he were mine. His jumping could improve over time, but I could see it disintegrating completely in the Arkle. |
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Inch,
i think one run can be forgiven if the horse has shown previously that different tactics provided much better performance. of course if he repeats that yesterday he cant win an Arkle,no doubt,but they would have learnt from that yesterday and better to have learnt before the Arkle,rather than during it!! 2 runs out in front,he imo jumped well enough to run a big race in the Arkle,one run in behind he did not jump well enough to win the Arkle. Connections will pick up on that i would think,and act accordingly on the day. cyclops, i take your points mate,we disagree about his jumping,no worries,but your point about what hes beat could apply to most of the fancied ones,i mean whats Medermit beat over 2m,and Ghizao too,unless you think Captain Chris is an Arkle horse(not for me). |
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we should all watch this together! I agree his jumping yesterday wasnt good...infact very average after 3 runs..BUT and a big but his first two were very good for a Novice???? We do hope better ground and Barry make a difference, the latter is the key for me although no axe to grind with Tinkler
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The fear I have is that if Finian's does put in a clear round, from the front, he may just set it up for the likes of Medermit (some will also say Captain Chris, though i wonder if he needs a flat right handed track) who clealry stay well. I know Finians stays very well, but I am not sure how easy it will be to win the race from the front, assuming that is what they ask him to do, but a fast run race, which this looks likely to be, seems likely to me to play right into Medermit's hands (assuming Medermit's jumping holds up at the faster pace, which I think it will).
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Think Finians may just get away with dropping slightly off Ghizao as he will be setting a v good pace imo. Whatever happens the call for me would be to put asteady but not strong pace on up front as too strong could play into the hands of Realt Dubh, Medermit and Captain Chris as mentioned above who will stay on well. Medermit wont have as good a kick as some and if he does manage to get around 2 miles then the stronger the pace the better for him.
Ghizao and Finians would be wise not to push on too strongly but to go steadily fast, hoping for a mistake from Medermit and keep some in the locker at the same time to kick late. Think Azertyuiop. |
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Not for the first time i disgree Eric. I see FR as setting a very fast pace and seeing some of the plodders fall too far behind. I am not convinced keeping some in the locker would be the best tactic from the evidence so far. The time of his first race was fantastic for a Novice and would gallop them in to the ground.
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What if? You think these horses will be going into the race without a plan, I think you're wrong.
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Fair enough maybe a fast pace for Finians however if he hasnt burnt off or got mistakes out of Captain Chris and Medermit by the home turn he will be a sitting duck with nothing left to attempt a late kick. Difficult to decide how best to ride Finians imo, that's what Henderson is paid for.
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and why Barry will be on board! Every faith in him.
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Just watch how Finians runs with Barry on board. He's by far the quickest novice over a fence this season. Yes he dives at one or two but be fair he's only had 3 runs over fences. I'm sure there will be loads of schooling between now and Cheltenham and I would go as far as saying I'll be suprised if he doesn't win it.
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Golden Freeze/Carvills Hill
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1992 Gold Cup
Cool Ground, The Fellow and a Bailey oss that escapes me at present(loved Kempton) filled the 1st three |
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Wouldn't give Finiian's latest outing a second thought if I hade backed him AP.
Typical of the man to leave plenty to work on axactly the same as he has done with Binocular. Opposition is comparitvively poor, Medermit hasn't won a race yet at Cheltenham and horses that come under pressure like he laways sems to do in topcompany don't win Arkle's. Gizao is hard to access as his form may appear better than it actually is. Early season form doesn't laways work out and can be very flattering. Finian's Rainbow a class act with a good engine seems the safest choice to me. |
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buddeliea, my feeling is that Medermit's win in the Scilly Isles was important because we know he has the speed for 2 miles (fancied to win last season's Champion Hurdle) and his recent victory shows he has the stamina. I'm not totally convinced by him, however, and have yet to make my mind up on the Arkle.
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@Cyclops. It's the lack of speed is what has prevented him from winning 5 times at the Fetival.
I heard a few pundits saying how good a race the Scilly Isles was yet nothing he beat has won anything of note. At Cheltenham Hell's Bay sprinted away from Medermit going to the last and if hehadn't have made a bad mistake would have won by 3-4 lengths. Medermit was always going well but you couldn't say he was hard on the steel nor could you say he was ever travelling better than Hell's Bay at any point. Had that race been 2 miles I dare say Medermit may have beaten Hell's Bay but it the way they both traveeld it wouldn't have been by far. When you consider Hell's Bay couldn't even keeep up with Finnian's Rainbow it pretty much indicates Medermit has a massive task on his hands. This Finian's rainbow is one very specuial horse and Medermit is just plain ordinary by Arkle standards. |
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Fk me dont remind me of Carvill/Golden Freeze, my worst memory in racing walked off the track disgusted. He was the best I'd seen in my time following racing til then had backed him the Rehearsal, Welsh National antepost 4s, Gold Cup 10s.
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Carvills destroyed Cool Ground giving him tons of weight in the Welsh National.
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Docklands?
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Correct Rondetto, Medermit lacks a 2 milers kick.
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Destroyed everything in the Welsh giving weight. The most iconic NH memory for me, and Sir Peter could hardly describe it, such was his astonishment.
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Chepstow is a funnt track and results there, especially on dire ground shouldn't be overestimated.
Not in the same league as Dessie, Jodami, Best Mate and Kauto - If he'd won a Hennesey giving lumps to good horses then fair enough but winning a Welsh National on bottomless ground 'does not a great horse make' irrespective of the weight imho. |
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u need a mixture of speed an stamina to win an arkle isnt not all about speed look at the likes of tidal bay an my way desolzen both wanted further in time
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I understand what you say Uncle, but I personally have not seen many (if any) more devastating performances on a race track. I do not believe anything would have lived with him that day.
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People who are suggesting that medermit does not have the required finishing kick to win an ankle should go back and look at last few winners. Would you say forpaddy, my way de solzan, tidal bay even sizing Europe were known for there finishing kick. A horse with a high cruising speed that jumps economically and stays well is what will win the ankle.
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and its name is ghizao.
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Ya ghizao has got top form in the book but I'd be a worried if the ground comes up goodish.
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in all fairness theres a good chance the ground will be g2s,soft in places..
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It was good ground last year but no doubt it will be called good to soft.
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Ya the word good will appear in the description
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The one thing we can all agree on is the word soft will feature in ther going
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Those horses didnt have a great finishing kick, there were no specialist 2 milers in those Arkle's that performed on the day. Think there are in this one.
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I think you can't see past FR, maybe your right but he is co favourite of three so we all can't be wrong, but if he wins fair play to ya I personally think he will be found out coming up the hill.
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a horse campaigned over further last season should get home all right i would think.
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