Cheltenham Festival
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Silviniaco Conti
Silviniaco Conti
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CV - Yes, you would expect to be able to get a better price about both Menorah and PC as we move on to some of the other trials where, hopefully, we will see what the likes of KK, Hurricane Fly, Solwhit, Dunguib and Go Native show can do this season.
Steeple - I thought Clerk's Choice ran well enough yesterday and if he runs in the CH on better ground, off a fast pace, he would probably represent better value than his current price on here suggests. He has good form off an end-to-end gallop from his earlier run at Cheltenham, though whether it is fair to describe it as bullet-proof is perhaps more debatable. Interesting where we are with the TS ratings for the main contenders at this stage. KK has a best TS of 165 for his run in the Bula last year; Binocular has three ratings in the 150s and a 163 for his CH win. They are a fair way ahead of most of the others on these ratings, with Menorah having a best TS of 150, PC and Hurricane Fly 153 and Go Native 152. Clerk's Choice gained a TS of 135 for his run at Cheltenham in October. Solwhit has a top rating of 167, recorded on soft/heavy ground, which is perhaps an indication of just how effective that one is with cut in the ground. I find the strength of Binocular's TS ratings (four marks over 150) reassuring. KK looks reasonably solid on this measure too. The others have possibly a bit more to prove in terms of how well they would cope with a very searching championship pace. No reason necessarily to think they would struggle, but as we know from the past, there are always some contenders who look impressive winning off no more than a sound pace in the CH trials who then go on to disappoint in the actual CH race through just not being able to go the sustained pace on the day. There was a lot to like in Menorah's run yesterday, but on the clock it was nothing like the pace likely to be encountered in the CH. KK's in the Bula last season was a better trial in that respect. |
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He has good form off an end-to-end gallop from his earlier run at Cheltenham, though whether it is fair to describe it as bullet-proof is perhaps more debatable.
yes, aka, I should have been clearer - I meant bullet-proof among the four contenders yesterday, in that he was the only one who'd not only proved he could handle a hot pace but positively revelled in it, cruising home by 21 lengths. I'm not saying he's a valid contender per se, I am saying that if yesterday's race is to be considered a solid trial (not yet proven, to my mind), then, if conditions are right on the day, he'd have a chance that would easily outweigh his likely odds. |
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Yes, I see what you mean, Steeple, that makes sense.
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rofl what stronly run races has menorah been involved in. I'd say the strongest race he ran in was at aintree and look what happened there :S
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Brooksieslad, you have the advantage of me; what are you on about?
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talking to alavadro about his the faster they go the more menorah wins by comments :S
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The trainer is likely to have let Menorah down a little when he was beaten a neck, 11 lengths clear of the rest. Also only time he has run on good ground, what I would say is Menorah absolutely loves the Gd/Sft Cheltenham ground.
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brookieslad watch that race back again honestly he tanked his wayto the front he was going to well and got to the front 3 out which was miles too soon but the horse was just in a diffrent league to his rivals they couldnt lead him long enough and he was very unlucky to be beaten
if luck had gone his way he should still be unbeaten cos everytime hes been beaten its been a messy race with no pace yesterday was a honest even pace which is fair for everyone and whatever way u lok at it he destroyed them |
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eric_morris 12 Dec 10 21:32
The trainer is likely to have let Menorah down a little when he was beaten a neck, 11 lengths clear of the rest. Also only time he has run on good ground, what I would say is Menorah absolutely loves the Gd/Sft Cheltenham ground. Claisse can call it what he wants to, why is g/s been odds on before the last meetings!! it was good ground out there in march imo, just look at the times and compare them to previous Cheltenham festivals opening day times, ironically when he did stick his neck out in 2007 and called it soft it was a right balls up |
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Timeform called the ground good on CH day
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I am not sure the Aintree race offers many clues about Menorah, though it might. I doubt the ground on that day would have troubled him. Quite possible he wasn't fully over his efforts in the SN. But the one who beat him at Aintree is probably pretty good in his own right and may prove better over 20f, according to the trainer.
On the face of it, Menorah was beaten by more of stayer off what was a pretty decent pace. I am more inclined to think Menorah ran a little flat on the day and GM may be pretty useful when getting his conditions. However, it would be foolish to entirely rule out the possibility that some chink in Menorah's armour may have been exposed on that occasion. |
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Any news on his prep run he was ment to be having? still think he has every chance of winning the CH
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33?1 looks big to me, I might back him in the hope of a pace collapse/stupidly fast gallop
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ladbrokes are going NRNB for this.
Think SC will give a very good account of himself.Not sure about winning it.Looks a great chaser in the making to me... |
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must admit i have had a sneaky small wager on this one,not sure hes good enough,but i like the improvers on my side at nice odds,just never know!!
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Time to lump on then
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what price is he for tomoras race.
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4/1 shot, bet of the day tomorrow imo. Celestial Halo will set a very strong pace and SC will just gallop all over overturn and Mille chief I should of thought
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4/1???????????
Ill be having some of that!!!!! i was expecting 5/2 2/1 |
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agreed brooksie, massive price
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Back it for the CH Hurdle also, will not be 40/1 after today
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I'd agree and think he may be the last bit of value to be had in the race. Looked top class at Ascot.
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Don't know what to make of the run, a little bit strange they instantly scratched him, instead of forgiving him one bad run. Mccoy opens his mouth and he's off for the grand national, very strange.
Hope now they're skipping Cheltenham they give him the year off and bring him back over fences next season really looking forward to that. |
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fk sake are you sure antepost is your game? A nd yes I'm sure you didnt back him (again).
By: This user is offline. booster When: 19 Feb 11 10:33 I'd agree and think he may be the last bit of value to be had in the race. Looked top class at Ascot. |
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2012 Arkle Chase,back him now
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No Hope and Bob Hope for that (and Bobe Hope's wife) ffs.
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You're probably right again Eric but haven't seen your congratulations for my Iconoclast tip on yesterday's 3 best bets. Sure you'll be on there later when mummy's bathed you and put your dressing gown and slippers on.
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I dont tip or read tips I just discuss relative merits/values of horses and dont care whether people back what I am backing that's up to them.
I havent finished my coco pops yet. |
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So why do you assume everyone else has backed their comments? I said he was maybe the last bit of value left in the race, not that I was going to have my max on like I did about Diamond Harry in the Hennessy and Iconoclast yesterday. You really need to get over your lack of success in your personal life and take a more relaxed view of other people's opinions. I bet you can't wait for March, mummy going down to the newsagents to buy your favourite comic and a copy of the Sun for your free 5p each way yankee at Ladbrokes. You seem like a very successful punter so might get you some spending money for your coach holiday to your favourite little guest house in Margate.
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You are a total bullsh1tter. Stick with your cluelessness.
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And stick with your mummy.
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perhaps not quite quick enough for a champion hurdle, but he's Damn good and really excites me. mentioned in his hurdling days the way he jumped just made you think fences. If you get to see that Ascot run over hurdles you'll never see a horse jump so well. Kauto must be thinking, jump in my grave as quick would ya?
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A lot of people have apparently been speculating on who will fill the number one box in the yard now, but we have made no long term plans.
Who knows, it could be Silviniaco Conti down the line - more of him in a minute - and I was originally in no rush to fill it. Talking of Silviniaco Conti, next stop for him is the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury in February. So Conti get a run before the gold cup, at least there appears to be some sort of plan then and not just throwing him into the Gold Cup without a run which imo would of been a big negative. Conti in Kauto's box by end of March :) |
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Right decision imo, be a good prep run. Be interested to see if Long Run turns up in that race this year, can't see it myself now
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The Betfair cameras were down here on Tuesday afternoon filming my runners for Newbury tomorrow - see it here - and hopefully that makes for good viewing.
And, while I have several potentially top-class runners this weekend, Silviniaco Conti is my established star on show. Not that I think that he is quite the finished article yet, both physically and in terms of finding his peak form-wise. I am told that there was only one horse spelt incorrectly when we typed up our list of horses at the start of the 2010-11 season, and that was Silviniaco Conti. So I think a tip for owners in future might be to buy horses that are hard to pronounce, and maybe to spell too. For some reason he is also a very hard horse to pronounce correctly. Not that I get in trouble with his owners Chris and Jared for saying it one way or the other; in fact, half of the time you find yourself half-singing the name to get it to trip off the tongue correctly. But, enough of that nonsense - I just call him Conti now anyway - what about his chances tomorrow? Well, he is the odds-on favourite but be aware that I have left a lot to work on. I am keen to get a run into him before Cheltenham to fine-tune him. I purposely gave him Christmas off to have a fresh horse at this stage. So fitness-wise, he is probably in a similar place to where he was before he won the Charlie Hall, namely that he is fit enough to do himself justice but he will improve enormously for the run. So while defeat here would be disappointing, it wouldn't be disastrous. Remember, Kauto Star only scrambled home in this race by a neck from L'Ami before winning at Cheltenham in 2007 and Denman unseated his rider at odds of 1-6 before going on to finish second in the 2010 Gold Cup. This is a stepping stone to the big one, don't forget that. And I see that Timeform don't have him that much clear of many of this field, even after his Betfair Chase defeat of the subsequent King George winner. But he is in great shape generally - in fact, I said to Lorraine Morris, who rides him out daily, on Thursday morning that he looks stunning at the moment, physically the best I have seen him - and of course I hope and expect him to win, especially in Long Run's absence. I wouldn't swap him for any horse in the Gold Cup line-up. I respect the likes of Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster - and I did note Bridgey's "he won't beat us in the Gold Cup" comments in Thursday's paper - and Mail De Bievre clearly had some high class form in France . And if Menorah stays, then he is a worthy opponent after an impressive, and probably improved, win in the Peterborough at Kempton last time. But if Silviniaco Conti is as good as we believe he is, then, even far from fully primed tomorrow, I would like to think we would be going to Cheltenham unbeaten this season. Gold Cup winner runs tomorrow exciting times ahead |
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Big day tomorrow, can't help worrying about Nicholls form, although a few have ran well in defeat, the 2 in the fred winter and celestial Halo running well in the World hurdle. Here's hoping he goes there 100% and runs his race.
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Yes need him to win but my form is worse than Nicholls so far at the festival!
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I was staring down the barrel until beneficient won the first, just about level now. Hopefully Conti will come to the rescue :)
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He's done all his winning on soft ground, thats not to say he won't run well tomorrow. Has winning form, with I beleive Long Run, The Giant Bolster and Captain Chris, being its biggest dangers.
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