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sintonian, chepstow is the most undulating track in the country.
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And, of course, aka, Go Native last year. The forgotten horse for this year, and if he runs well on his return, it will be interesting to see if his supporters materialise. I opposed him all last seaosn, on the basis that he is talented, but soft. I could never ignore the two times, as a novice, that Hurricane Fly laughed at him, particularly the occasion when both of them were swinging off the bridle on the run to the last, yet Hurricane beat him by, from memory, 10 lengths.
It's interesting that the Irish form is all but ignored in this year's market, and I do believe that now is the time to nibble at Hurricane Fly. I think his track record of injury is now well factored into his price. You can get around 10 now, but most of the summer he was trading at around 6 or 7, and all that's happened is that he's given a few coughs, which isn't a disaster. |
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Go Native is a multiple Grade One winning, Cheltenham Championship race winning performer in this country, and I'd rather have that proven big race profile on my side than Hurricane Fly's Irish based form, when it comes to the Champion Hurdle.
Given that he started fav last year, Go Native is a massive price currently, imho... |
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It does seem that Dunguib has fallen off the radar - he's the forgotten horse of the race.
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i aint forgotten he cant jump very well
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Think at the very top level the hill is never going to do Go Native any favours as he is best seen cruising through on a flatter track whereas a Champion Hurdle the pace is relentless throughout and that includes the finish up the hill. They all come off the bridle to win up there even the greats and if GN has to then he doesnt have the finishing pace of others in the race.
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Eric - finishing pace? I think he's absolutely potent for a half furlong and then he empties. I'm assuming you doubt his ability to produce his kick after a strong gallop. He was after all a Supreme Novice winner and travelled really well - if memory serves, they weren't exactly crawling that day.
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I like Go Native a lot, but just have a slight worry the injury setback has been a bit more serious than at first reported. Shame if we don't get to see, one way or the other, what he could do in a CH if remaining sound through the race. Hell of a lot of talent potentially lining up next March for this race.
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The hill in a Champion Hurdle is not best suited to horses who need to cruise through part way up the hill to join the lead and then need to find a gear change at the close. These tend to be outfought by types such as the Hardies, Brave Incas (perhaps Peddlers Cross type horse) who can maintain a steadier more even kick most of the way up the hill. As you say dont think Go Native is the latter type, he needs to cruise through late then find a gradual change of gear. Generally these types dont find that change of gear uphill in a Champion Hurdle quick enough or are able to sustain it long enough to defeat the even paced finishers. You do have the likes of Binocular who change gear before the hill and can stay on winding it up to the line gradually going up the gears for a sustained run. GN is not the ideal type for a Championship race imo for these reasons.
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Good points, Eric. We have a few in the mix for the CH who seemingly have somewhat contrasting styles of finishing their races; it will be very interesting to see how the cookie crumbles on the day in that respect. And we have yet to see what type of a finisher SC might be, if he proves good enough to go for the race. We've so far only had a glimpse of what he might be.
What must be in the mind of those that have horses that come with a late run or need to be delivered with very precise timing, is how they could ever hope to get past Binocular if that one runs the type of race he put in last year. Given that it is so much harder to come off the pace to run down horses at the front that are still accelerating rather than weakening up the hill, there is a quandary there for the hold-up types if Binocular threatens to be in the same form and is ridden to hit the front off the final bend, as last season. For example, I wonder what, if anything, connections of KK might do differently if they get another crack in the CH against an in form Binocular and with (seemingly) strong finishers like PC to worry about this time also. |
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Eric - I fully understand your doubts about Go Native and I have the same concerns too. When he won at the Festival two seasons ago, I christened him the 'poor man's Harchibald' and I haven't changed that view since. In his defence though, he hasn't proved he CANNOT quicken off a sustained pace has he? He deserves the benefit of the doubt and I think it's stating the obvious in saying his tremendous cruising speed will almost certainly enable him a shot at the principals on the run to the last. Whether the undoubted pace in the race blunts his 'half furlong dash'..... we'll find out on the day. If by some miracle there was just an average pace throughout the race, would you fancy his finishing pace then? I think this horse possesses INSTANT acceleration (better than any NH horse in training) that's very rarely seen.I just have the same doubts as you, regarding the sustained, ball-breaking pace. Can you name any other hurdlers (over the years) that can bolt as soon as they're asked? Hurricane Fly's no slouch for speed as he was a quality performer on the level, so maybe it's him instead of Go Native that your doubts should be pointed at - he's far shorter in the betting. I have more doubts about Hurricane Fly because he ain't won at the Festival.....he's failed to even get there!
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What are the thoughts on Cue Card/Menorah/SC on Sat at Chelt? My money is on SC to cruise to the front two from home, jump the last better than CC and outstay him up the hill... pure speculation, of course: but I think SC's last performance was special and 4lbs received by CC won't worry me... I think SC is possibly the next Istabraq -LONG time since I've sen a horse so fast over the timber... cannot wait for the market to open... gonna WADE in...
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daryl jacob now rides with noel not cleared to ride
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What are your thoughts on DJ? I was hugely impressed with Noel's ride on SC at Ascot - wouldn't have known it had even had a race... that's why I think there's another stone of improvement to come
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I like DJ Somerset, should suit the horse. Sits nice and still (which is all NF has had to do on it so far), just point and shoot.
I thought he gave Diamond Harry an excellent ride in the henessey. |
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Of course... I forgot he was on DH... yeah... was a nice ride he gave it... albeit the difference in weights helped!!
It'll be fascinating to see how SF handles 2miles but he was swinging on the bridle at Ascot and 2m at Cheltenham is not exactly a speedsters track... and he won left-handed at Bangor and Chepstow... I know CC has already won there and so did Menorah giving lumps away... but SC made some tough older opposition look like a pile of rags at Ascot |
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possibly the next Istabraq???
not getting too carried away then |
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Have you seen the horse in action, Buddeliea??!! Have you seen how fast it clears a fence? Did you watch it, as a 4-yr old, walk all over OLDER group wiining hurdlers at Ascot... it didn't come off the bridle and is already rated at the same level (155-ish) that Istabraq was rated when winning the AIG Champion hurdle the year AFTER he won the Sun Alliance Hurdle as a SIX year old...
Irrespective of what happens on Saturday, and dropping back to 2m is intriguing, I think he is the most exciting young hurdler I've seen in years... yes I fear Cue Card's engine... and may have a little egg on my face Saturday evening, but this fellow jumps beautifully, he's the cleanest I'vc seen since Istabraq, and I think that will win him a library-full of silver... |
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Somerset_Moan
Cheltenham is not exactly a speedsters track... very interesting you should mention this, because its nature requires that winners need to have speed here imo. and i would venture that chepstow would be at the other end of the scale and ascot too, where low and behold silviniaco conti has won. fellas... he's a nice horse but the ramping up on here is unbelievable and there is a long way to go to march, 2miles, on good ground against champion 2milers at cheltenham. not bred to be a champion hurdler really is it? |
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SM,i was at Ascot the other week.Yes he ran and jumped well,but that was a long way from a CHurdle.Zaynar,Karabak and Restless Harry are stayers,and Zaynar ran badly,and SC had less weight.
Long way to go before we can begin to compare with the likes of Istabraq. |
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Less weight than Zaynar i meant.
I will admit though that as a 4yr old he is open to any sort of improvement,but its very early days to be talking superstar,dont you think? |
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personally think he wins tmoz.
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today*
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Come on the Conti :)
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@buddeliea
Time will tell... BUT I think you're wrong, based on: a) My eyes b) The form... He GAVE wight to Karabak who has just won at Cheltenham He was only receiving 4lbs from Zaynar a Triumph Hurdle winner and beat it NINE lengths... and Zaynar was 3rd in 2010 CH!! c) TIMEFORM!! - They already have it rated within a lb or two of the main CH hopefuls... and I reckon there's up to a stone more of improvement to come! Roll on March!! |
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nice bit of after timing there,Karabak been running pretty average till today.
Zaynar same horse this season then?? like i said these are stayers. Agree about the improvement though,but we have no idea how much. Time will tell,as you rightly say. |
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Karabak is pretty average imo. Zaynar doesnt truely stay he needs a very strong run 2m to show his best, not much oppo in behind.
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lol well he battered them, lets be fair what have we seen thats come out of the supreme and the champion bumper. On a form basis this is the horse to beat.
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acid test coming up here..imo
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Menorah has the best 2m form in the race,no doubt about that.
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beating bothy?
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winning the supreme,and greatwood with a huge weight is better than any 2m form that SC has.
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no pace
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GEDDIN
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2m race,SC aint a 2 miler imo
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hmmmmmmmm
Intriquing race... Receiving weight the winner deserved to win and, yes, the turn of foot helped... I think jocks on both 2nd and 3rd will think they'd like another crack at him off levels with more pace in the race |
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more pace would suit Menorah even more
SC and CC ran great races there. Menorah is a top class horse |
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pace maker goes bolting off yet the others sit there and leave silviniaco to make the pace. I knew the fate of the race before they'd turned out the back.
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SC needs further than 2m doesnt have the pace for 2m.
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Strong pace of a Champion Hurdle you can add at least another half dozen lengths to Menorah's superiority there, Menorah is going to be awesome come the Champion Hurdle.
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