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The Arkle - early season ramblings

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Replies: 910
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 04 Feb 11 18:22
I'm not sure about that form tbh.

Tail of the bank fell when against Finians Rainbow lto, was most likeliest 2nd before falling and was coming under pressure, but, there is no way of telling by how far finians would have beaten him by that day. Imo i would imagine TOTB would poss have rallied for a couple hundred yards , thus asking Finians a question, which would have been answered easily of course but we all know when finians has had to be asked in the past he has made the odd mistake. Not saying that would have happened that day, he was made 2/13 on off after all but i am inclined to believe that the form as actually been franked for GHIZAO more than any other.

GHIZAO beat SURFING doing hand stands giving up to 10ib to everything in that race. TOTB was coming under pressure when falling in Finians race as already said above but did look the likeliest 2nd and could have rallied with finians for a few strides, whom reached for the 4th last and has made mistakes at fences in the past when asked questions. Don't forget, SURFING was beaten today after making a serious mistake at the last, which i feel cost it the race.
By:
Masterminded
When: 04 Feb 11 19:41
I think you must be in the Ghizao camp STS which is fair enough there are two sides to every coin. I don't think the horses that have ran against FR in these so called non events have done his form any harm at all in their following races. One has won a Grade 2 pretty convincingly with a number of good horses in behind. The other has gone on to beat a horse who is certainly no slouch in Surfing. Finians has not even remotely looked like coming off the bridle and when he does over two miles all he will do is power on.
By:
King Selassie I
When: 04 Feb 11 22:23
Point taken MM. Unfortunately I've seen this so many times with these 'Super horses'. The mistake that was made with FR was when NH found out he was special, he should of 'raised the bar' in terms of competition. The Arkle is not the race for this !! imo FR will not win the Arkle. I must say, PN has campaigned Ghizao very well. Once he found out how good he was, he confirmed witgh the Newbury race then put him away. Look at PN's snug face when this horse is mentioned. I could be wrong with FR but at the age of 52 I have seen this so often. Best wishes to the FR & Ghizao camps.
By:
SEATHESTARS....NO1
When: 04 Feb 11 23:49
Yes you would be correct masterminded, i am on GHIZAO at 12/1 [:p]
By:
buddeliea
When: 05 Feb 11 06:37
not sure anyone has said FR is a super horse.what he is,is a good novice hurdler who was running over 2 and half in the top novice races,probably a bit further than ideal,now a  chaser who jumps well in the main running over 2m,which given his staying a bit further, should have ideal conditions in an Arkle.
The way he travels suggests a touch of class,and see no reason why he should not run a big race at Chelt.Whether thats good enough on the day,we have to find out,but at 32,i am more than happy.
He also thrashed the 2nd fav over hurdles,although of course chasing is a different ball game.
Must admit i an excited about this one,could be top class over fences.
By:
Reyes
When: 05 Feb 11 08:44
still don't fancy either of the top 2 but if you made me choose 100 times, i'd pick FR each and every time.

I'll never start an Arkle early ramblings thread again if Ghizao wins Laugh
(disclaimer: reserve right to change mind if going is soft/heavy)
By:
Reyes
When: 05 Feb 11 19:45
Ghizao back to 3rd fav when Med is confirmed.
By:
eric_morris
When: 06 Feb 11 01:29
Finian's next up next weekend he will have to have a safe round all being well to make the big 5 on the day with Ghizao, Captain Chris, Medermit and Realt Dubh to take on 4 weeks later.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 06 Feb 11 01:50
looking forward to seeing finians running next week, am on realt dubh at 25s and looking for another to back as its always better to have 2 decent chances as the races are so competitve ,when you think of it the festival must give a good chance of a big payout especialy on the multiples as the  championship races are priced up months before and you have months to study the form ,have a good idea of what the ground is going to be like ,gd/sft touch wood ,know that every horse is tryin for its life ,it doesnt get much better than this ,cant wait
By:
Reyes
When: 06 Feb 11 12:43
Med confirmed according to RP it seems. He's only 26lb superior to Ghiz over hurdles ratings... (diff game I know)
By:
Masterminded
When: 06 Feb 11 12:45
Where is Finians running next week? Has it been confirmed he will run in the Kingmaker now?
By:
brigust1
When: 06 Feb 11 13:04
Starluck. 50's will do in a very open race. Can't win the CH think they will decide to go for the Arkle. Highest rated, different game I know. Well Chief only won 1 novice chase in Feb before winning the Arkle.
By:
marvinho
When: 06 Feb 11 13:07
Medermit the one for me now he's been confirmed.

Finian's is clearly a classy animal but until he has run in a decent race against more than 2 runners I simply cannot have him at the prices.

Ghizao would only be of interest if there is plenty of rain (in which case Rock Noir would also be backed).

Captain Chris is probably better right handed and needs to improve his jumping.

Realt Dubh's last experience at Cheltenham on quicker ground than he usually gets in Ireland would concern me.
By:
wellchief
When: 06 Feb 11 13:15
I was a bit disappointed in Rock Noir yesterday, thought he would get closer.

He travelled as well as the leader, but then his jumping went to pieces in the final 6 furlongs when the going got tough.  Hopefully this will still be the aim, and he has learnt a lot from the race but I now hold little hope to be honest.
By:
Reyes
When: 06 Feb 11 15:08
Grand Annual wc?
By:
marvinho
When: 06 Feb 11 15:13
He's rated 150 so if they think he has the 8-10lbs in hand he would need to win the Grand Annual, they'll surely just chance their arm in the Arkle?

Not to mention it is more likley to be softer on the first day with the watering policy
By:
Martin pipe returns
When: 06 Feb 11 16:04
Wouldn't be surprised to see Rock Noir in the Jewson.
By:
Reyes
When: 08 Feb 11 22:42
so Med's been hammered in over last day or so.

Be interesting to see what FR does at Warwick, can't see much else either running or coming out of woodwork now.

So, we're left with potentially a take yer pick from 3 race. 4 if you include RealDubh (which i'm not personally)

of those 3, Ghizao surely can't beat both Fr and Med unless we get a bog.
By:
Masterminded
When: 08 Feb 11 22:53
What is Ruby riding in the Arkle? Any ideas what Mullins will run in this?
By:
DECALEC
When: 09 Feb 11 03:31
when will rupert ride not whatLaugh
By:
DECALEC
When: 09 Feb 11 03:32
ps i do love him well jenifer moreLaughLove
By:
eric_morris
When: 09 Feb 11 08:13
marvinho you desperately want Captain Chris out of the Arkle when you have to use jumping right handed is best for him after the weekend when he went right handed and jumped by far the worst he ever has. At Cheltenham over an Arkle trip he jumped beautifully against Ghizao. The reasons ?
1. He goes well left handed
2. He jumps better with a positive ride as he has been given over an Arkle trip. Dawdling at the back over a longer trip does not sort his attitude at his fences.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 Feb 11 14:54
rupert who or what?
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 09 Feb 11 15:30
eric,you cant deny hes jumped lh at cheltenham,and ,that will cost him ground..
By:
marvinho
When: 09 Feb 11 16:19
Eric, his jumping was better at Cheltenham but that does not conclusively mean that he is better going left handing imo (Sandown is widely regarded as THE jumping test for a novice - although obviously Cheltenham isn't an easy place to jump either!)

I will always look to oppose a horse who has showed a tendancy to jump the wrong way as they tend to need lbs in hand and in the big races you need everything in your favour.  I opposed Racing Demon in the Arkle and every other time HK decided that he wasn't jumping right despite it being clear for all to see.

I also agree that a positive ride would be better for him but perhaps a positive ride over two and a half.  For me he has looked very one paced and gets caught flat footed when a race starts to unfold.  Wouldn't be surprised if Hobbs tried him in the King George this year as he put up a couple of very good runs there as a novice hurdler.
By:
abbott
When: 09 Feb 11 16:54
Guys anybody give me there opinion on who in the race will make thr unning. Im not sure if im losing it but bar a couple of oustiders would it be fair to say that all the big players will be waited with?
By:
eric_morris
When: 09 Feb 11 17:48
marvinho he will act much better on better ground, he has a better finish than Medermit on current ground, faster ground he will leave him for dead.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 09 Feb 11 18:08
eric Im guessing you have spoken to the horse and he's told you he'll run much quicker if the ground is dryer?
By:
Brooksielad
When: 09 Feb 11 18:10
captain chris looks a big slow horse that would probably be suited to 4 n half mile in time :)
By:
eric_morris
When: 09 Feb 11 18:42
Big slow horse that made Medermit look like he was standing still on the run-in Grin
By:
Masterminded
When: 09 Feb 11 20:01
He was staying on. Looks a 3 mile chaser to me. He's slow at everything and it's just his class that keeps getting him placed. 3 miles at Kempton would be ideal IMO.
By:
eric_morris
When: 09 Feb 11 21:00
He wont be suited to Kempton imo the track will be too tight for him. He is suited to a stamina speed track like Cheltenham.
By:
marvinho
When: 09 Feb 11 21:06
abbott, looking through his form, do you think its feasible that Kilmurry could lead?  He certainly jumped well fto at Cheltenham (the ground found him out next time in my opinion) and could have a few of these at it if he got an easy lead.  Always thought he was a lively outsider and if he is prominent that is usually a major advantage in the Arkle (FPDP against KK is a classic example of comparing being in the van to coming off the pace).
By:
eric_morris
When: 09 Feb 11 21:06
The connections of Captain Chris just dont seem to have sussed that he is not a cruiser over fences as he doesnt jump well enough without a positive ride which is why longer trips are not currently suited to him. He needs to be kept near a lead over a shorter trip on a speed stamina track to be most effective. Sizing Europe won the Arkle but is effective at 3 miles.
By:
Brooksielad
When: 10 Feb 11 09:09
Sizing Europe would of won a champion hurdle if he didnt go wrong tbh. Not sure captain chris has those bragging rights. If you watch the race back choc gives medermit absolute nothing he idles then when captain chris comes up near him he pulls away again at the end. Choc thought he had the race won so he didnt use the whip.
By:
jimnast
When: 10 Feb 11 09:18
dissapointing race this year.
By:
tweedledumbtweedletwat
When: 10 Feb 11 17:55
you would have to say that kilmurray[if he runs/ground issue] would make the running or poss torphichen .i would expect ghizao to try to take it up 4out.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 12 Feb 11 15:38
bostons angel magninimity 1st  2nd in moriarty  another form boost for both realt dubh and jessies dream
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 Feb 11 18:03
Realth Dubh defintely the value at nearly 10/1 stillHappy
By:
Reyes
When: 12 Feb 11 20:57
poor Kilmurry. RIP.
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