Cheltenham Festival
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The Arkle - early season ramblings
The Arkle - early season ramblings
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Agree, pun run.
I see that Rock Noir is also entered in the Jewson (70 on here but only 16's with the Bookies). I suppose his two hurdle wins in France were over 2m3f, so possibly keeping him for the Jewson but Betfair seems to suggest otherwise? I would definately prefer Rock Noir to Bellvano, espeically when Bellvano gets turned over at 1/5. He has been trading at toughly half the odds of Bellvano, and still is. |
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Kingmaker should have a decent field anyway, he should get tested by a few more horses and we should know a lot more about him.
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Read today hendo saying owners dont want him to go to warwick now. will check that now sint.
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Yep sint, he'll have another poor race I'd say. He's not going to the king maker.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/01/27/manual_122836.html |
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THE 34 are.....
1210-2 Bellvano69 7 11-7 — 114 139 John P McManus 25-211 Blazing Tempo74 7 11-0 — 103 157 Mrs S Ricci 23-711 Cadoudalas61 8 11-7 128 134 141 Six To Five Against G D Thorp, R L Baker 11-222 Captain Chris76 7 11-7 — 122 154 Mrs Diana L Whateley 05-021 Dan Breen90 6 11-7 — 123 151 Stuart M Mercer 315-11 Finian´s Rainbow55 8 11-7 156 143 163 Michael Buckley 2-1 Fort Defiance232 5 11-7 — — Dr Michael Smurfit 08-211 Ghizao76 7 11-7 157 135 167 The Johnson & Stewart Families 02/1F1 Giorgio Quercus49 6 11-7 — 81 146 Sir Robert Ogden 100-84 Gus Macrae59 7 11-7 — 63 121 Quicksilver Racing Partnership 85-152 Keki Buku74 8 11-7 — 119 132 Mrs Diana L Whateley 31114 Kilmurry121 6 11-7 143 141 158 J P Romans 1400-1 Mamlook57 7 11-7 — 109 139 P A Deal & G Lowe 4-1R12 Medermit73 7 11-7 155 138 162 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership 1/1-F5 Mikael D´Haguenet75 7 11-7 — 135 165 Mrs S Ricci 112-F1 Morning Supreme71 8 11-0 — 115 162 Henry Murphy 123-11 Nadiya De La Vega59 5 11-0 — 123 154 Million In Mind Partnership 54-122 Noble Prince51 7 11-7 — 151 161 D P Sharkey 0P-153 Pascha Bere136 8 11-7 — — Mr and Mrs Mark Tracey 3-P112 Pepe Simo59 7 11-7 143 134 151 Highclere Thoroughbred Racing-Pepe Simo 18-213 Phidippides63 7 11-7 — 143 145 Paul Green 12F6-1 Quel Esprit118 7 11-7 — 121 151 Red Barn Syndicate 1F1211 Realt Dubh51 7 11-7 — 151 161 D J Sharkey 4-1F19 Robinson Collonges94 6 11-7 148 111 155 Mr & Mrs G Calder 0-2131 Rock Noir74 6 11-7 — 144 154 John P McManus 2-4244 Shirley Casper51 10 11-0 — 126 139 J P Dunne 211311 Stagecoach Pearl115 7 11-7 147 153 162 John Conroy Jaqueline Conroy 225-23 Starluck59 6 11-7 — — A T A Wates P-F153 Surfing76 5 11-7 150 114 156 Michael Buckley 17-213 Torphichen75 6 11-7 — 142 152 Thomas Barr 91212 Tullamore Dew57 9 11-7 139 134 146 Give Every Man His Due 06-321 Uncle Tom Cobley72 7 11-7 — 106 146 Gigginstown House Stud 12111 West With The Wind200 6 11-7 148 150 157 Mrs Janet Davies 11-711 William´s Wishes120 6 11-7 139 138 145 Mrs D E Cheshire |
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Yes sorry CV I mis-read what NJH was saying. He wont go because BJG will be at Newbury with owners etc.
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GHIZAO to me the most likely winner and should be shorter imo in the betting. FINIANS RAINBOW has won a non event last time of which would have been value at 1/33 and made mistakes last time he was tried.
Can't be thinking GHIZAO's form is suspect, yes he has beaten the same horses twice but lto beat these same horses in the same manner as first time but this time giving them upwards of 10ib! Maybe i am being a little biased here having backed him at 12/1[:p] but that was my view on the race from when that bet was placed (small thanks to geton for pointing me in his direction by the way[;)]) This race has already cut up and looks to cut up even more. That in respect to my bet is a good thing imo, as less opponents equals better chance of winning lol[smiley:crazy]. I think i could go as far as to saying this could even have only 7-10 runners! Having said all of the above, this game is about backing winners and making profit, and i am being swayed towards a small covering interest on FINIANS at the current odds before anymore come out.  |
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Ghizao beat two horses who have no chance in an Arkle. His price is too short.
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FR likely to run at Sandown (in the scilly isles nov) the same day as the Contenders hurdle; I forget where I read that but sure I saw it somewhere.
Lets hope he gets a few gooduns to race against for that all important race experience. |
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Scilly Isles is over 2 miles 4.5 furlongs so I would doubt that would be the target
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Oh! That wouldn't be the ideal prep race over that distance (at Sandown). Where else could he go? They must be running out of options but surely need another run somewhere!
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For a horse who beat the so called same horses home last twice that would have no chance in an arkle yet one is 25 in the antpost lists. A horse that beat GHIZAO when my selection was weak and of which was being billed as a potential Arkle fancy with a wind problem! GHIZAO it has been said somewhere also works with the current champion chase favorite at home. And before you go on about how master minded looked laboured lto and is not good enough for the CC there were very valid excuses for somersby getting so close, only had to listen to mccoy after the race to find them out.
This game is all about opinions, and knowing what i have found out about GHIZAO i would not be selling my bet to no one for no price! 2011 Arkle winner imo! |
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Sorry captain chris is 21 not 25 now!
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ghizao has looked the most natural of all the contenders so far, but on the day i dont think he will be classy enough and may lack that extra gear on goodish ground, saying that i wouldn't mind being on at 12's.
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Seriously fancy Medermit if the trainer would commit to the race. Like to see it run in the Kingmaker and then Arkle. Recent Arkle winners had a reasonable RPR over hurdles, which this guy has got
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Any thoughts on Kilmurry as a decent outsider?
If you take the view his run at Cheltenham was too bad to be true, his previous beating of Ghizao reads well (albeit Ghizao was probably not fully tuned up that day). It could be that he prefers good ground (although he has won on heavy), at around 33s looks to be the best long shot at this stage for me. Maybe PW selection? |
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I'm hoping Kilmurry goes for the Grand Annual. The horse clearly needs the fastest ground of the week, and that tends to be on the Friday...once the water can has been put away.
Nicholls or Henderson will probably lob a 160 rated horse into the equation for their own purposes, but it'll serve to keep the weight sensible on Kilmurrys back. |
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Aye, that could be a risk
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What price will Captain Chris be tomorrow afternoon?
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good to see PW read my first post :)
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Just reverse the roles and think Captain Chris had hounded Ghizao in both races and jumped like Ghizao in those two races what price would he be for the Arkle now ? If Ghizao had not run and Captain Chris had won at Cheltenham what price would he be ?
Ghizao has thrashed him twice jumped better but of course he has a low hurdle rating so can't win ! On chase form and jumping ability Ghizao is the best horse in the race and it is only his hurdles form and rating while choking in his races which have kept him from being a 5/2 shot for the Arkle ! |
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I have to go along with you there Hussard, stats don't win races - they just "suggest" the most likely winner. For some reason GHIZAO just is not "sexi" enough, hence he's still 5/1.
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On GHIZAO at 12s, and i agree with everything said by hussard above. Only reason for his low hurdles rating is he 'choked' in his races, clearly unfit first time up against captain chris, he has jumped better than CC and travelled more sweetly than CC on every other occasion! It maybe true that what they were saying about CC was he was in need of a breathing op, same as GHIZAO had last summer, but really? Even so, i still can't have him over my selection.
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Although I'm hoping Finians is the real deal I agree that his price (favourite in some lists
 ) is not warranted.I think Realth Dubh is way overpriced - has won two competitive 2m Grade 1's and also ran well in another 2m4f race. 12/1 looks massive value to me (and Paul Carberry is my favourite ) so I have now lumped on. |
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Realt Dubh has done little wrong since going chasing but might be a bit knackered come March having run 6 times already this season. Noel Meades record at the festival wouldn't have me rushing to back it either. Ghizao looks very solid imho
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^ TBF Hill Society would have won the Arkle for Meade if the judge had been able to interpret a photo finish properly
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What price do you think Realt Dubh should be if he is way overpriced?
I am guessing you believe he should be 7/1 or 8/1? |
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If the race was being run today on good to soft they should be betting something like:
Ghizao - 5/2 Realth Dubh - 10/3 Finians Rainbow 7/2 Merdermit (if he runs) - 5/1 Captain Chris 10/1 16/1 bar |
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Rock Noir
Nice boost for his form at Taunton. |
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Realt Dubh definate Saver material at double figures. Only time he's been beat this season was when Falling, and being outstayed by Jessies Dream.
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Still really like Rock Noir. Hopefully they'll go for the race. Though he is entered in the 2 and half miler at Sandown at the weekend which is a bit of a worry.
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^^^Agreed. Backed him on here for the Arkle and had a small saver for the new Jewson (he's generally shorter in the betting for the Jewson though). He's kind of slipped under the radar this year with Ghizao, FR and Realt Dubh getting the headlines.
Whichever race he goes for, when people see AP McCoy in the JP McManus colours, that normally shortens the price. This race is so wide open, I couldn't be confident on any selection |
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It takes an exceptional Novice (or alternatively a pi$$ poor bunch of contemporary's) to win 3 grade 1 races in a year....can't see Realth Dubh winning it. There's a certain amount of "long run hype" about Finnians Rainbow this yr... remember Long Run was the real deal (could well be yet) and was a certainty for the RSA based on stable vibes and opinions.
Sizing Europe and Forpady won because they traveled and jumped at speed, quick and accurately. Of the market principles Ghizao has done this best, add in his record at the course and he's a worthy fav and the likely winner in my book. I've stated previously Kilmurry is a solid solid horse and should not be ignored where ever he goes. Was thought to be a far superior horse than loosen my load in DeBromheads. Surprised Potts didn't buy him. In Tizzards stable tour he said he was bought with big meetings in mind, must have paid a kings randsom |
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have backed realt dubh took the 25s hills a few weeks ago, he has some good form, 2 grade 1s and his 2nd behind jessies dream (he would have been 3rd if m.d.haguenet had not fallen at the last is still decent form ,bostons angel btn 24l+ has come out and won a grade 1 so the form is pretty good ,
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Kilmurry to me could not be good enough imo unless something was amiss lto that i have missed. He beat an unfit GHIZAO first time out when fresh but GHIZAO came out next time and slaughtered him by twice the distance he beat him the first time!GHizao has since came out and give an equally impressive round of jumping and 10ib in weight for another easy success over what would be course and distance, granted beating the same horse again but captain chris this time only managing to get within 4lengths at the line getting 10ib.
I am happy with my 12/1[:p] GHIZAO thank you[;)][smiley:crazy], likeliest winner imo and should be shorter price than he is now , especially as i believe finians rainbow is hype, after all we have only ever seen him win at 1/10 and when tried he made mistakes. |
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STS, have you watched the race in which Ghizao thrashed Kilmurry?
Kilmurry never jumped and was struggling before halfway, it was simply not his running (I think the ground is the most likely reason, much softer than their first meeting. It is most certainly true that Ghizao has improved a fair bit since his debut but he was quite strong in the market that first day (I backed him!) and suprisingly weak nto when he beat Captain Chris at Cheltenham. Kilmurry back on better spring ground is interesting. I don't think he is up to winning an Arkle but his mark looks quite stiff based on just that Cheltenham win. |
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[;)]agree totally marvinho but ssssssshhhhhhh[smiley:crazy]
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marvinho i did say above that i was unsure in whether i was missing something and your quite right to think the distance was flattering if jumping was an issue. But look at it another way, in an Arkle, if he has tendancies to jump like that in races, he shouldn't be a runner in an Arkle imho! Sometimes you get horses that are very very good jumpers, but one mistake early on in a race can knock their confidence to such an extent it ruins their race. I actually think Kauto Star enters that equation. Other horses take mistakes in their stride and just forget and carry on.
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Tail of the Bank boost the form of Finians Rainbow just now. The horse he beat finished behind Ghizao last time out.
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Beat Surfing.
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