i meant the same but am not as good with words as you can see. but kauto 28 lbs better..... i think not

hah no. put the whole kitty on

eh...140 after it's first run...you'll have to name it

what gaff track did it win at

ha duffy i dont wanna say on here. if you give me your email address i will email it to you - as long as you promise not to put it on here!! I know some people associated with it, and do not want to disclose publicly but will email it to you.. it was a southern track..

night r carver. your knowlegable views are much appreciated

nope absolutely not. knowledgable, informed, opinionated, honest and probably slightly tired so adios

Though I do agree with the sentiment kauto's consistency is his greatest talent. How a horse can so consistently be on song for race after race, at different tracks, different distances, coherent going, left handed or right handed. Such a durable, consistent and versatile horse.

17 grade 1 chases, 13 wins, 1 second and 3 falls.

The other thing is that race distances (and therefore times) are more consistent these days.

Back in the good old days it would be '3 miles and about 1 furlong' etc, giving plenty of leeway for the Clerks of Courses to mess around with race distances.

They still have the same cavalier approach to race times and distances at Punchestown.

Hi CV - I have the first and second lap times for the last 30 Gold Cups, again they are remarkably consistent. I was an exponent of the fact that tactical speed impacted on time, but having spent several years trying to prove it concluded that it wasn't.

Take you example of Kauto - his three KG wins on good to soft were run in 6m 6s - 2006 / 6m 9s 2007 / 6m 7s 2010. His fastest time was on Gd / GS in 2008 when he clocked 5m 57s. Remarkably the going stick which I totally disregarded when introduced would tell us the ground in 2006 and 2007 was comparable, but faster in 2009. I say remarkably because that would fit with my visual impression having been there on all three days.

So how did Nacarat influence the result ?

I believe the answer is physical, the graded races throw together the best physical specimens capable of the best performances of that era. The issue for the horse is always how to maintian airflow, because the process of diffusing oxygen through the lungs into the bloodstream is vital to releasing energy in the muscles. When the horse reaches the limit of its capability to fuel the muscles it starts to tire and fade. Therefore what Nacarat acheived by going to fasr was taking those who laid up with the pace to the maximum of their capability at an earlier stage of the race with the result that they began to struggle a long way from home.

Kauto has a far superior ability in terms of his physical ability to maintain the fuel supply, and therfore was easily able to take advantage of the situation. Hence what you saw was a wider winning distance than would have been the case if the rest of the horses had run at a pace they were capable of sustaining. Therefore the impact of pace is only relevant to those horses who cannot maintain the required fuel supply, and not to the winner who was always superior.

To this extent the result was exaggerated - and for my money his performance against Our Vic and Exotic Dancer was his best KG run.

bobby dazzler are kautos king georges not phenominal performances?

I totally agree the winning distance was exaggerated and hence the rating is incorrect and furthers my opinion that using this old rating system is fundamentally flawed. I also believe that awarding IC a 185 on the back of defeating Denman by 7 lengths is wrong. On that basis Denman ran within 4lbs of his career best that day, which given his two other runs this year is certainly wife of the mark.

I think the rating and handicap system is outdated and ineffectual. A simple analysis of the average sp of all handicap winners can point to this.

It also raises the question of how good a horse really is and if a high rating awarded to a horse giving weight and a beating to inferior rivals is the same as a horse wining a grade 1 chase.

Take a grade 1 chase with a horse with tactical speed. Ideally the jockey wants to have the horse positioned close up to the leader before the last or second last and to deliver a finishing kick to win the race. The rating the horse is assigned for this win is based of the distance he won by. The margin of victory is determined by the point at which the finishing kick was delivered by the jockey. If a jockey made the run for home say at 4 out he may well run the risk of the horse tiring before the line or he may win by a larger margin. So since the main goal is to win the race trying to put up a high rating would be counter productive on that front.

It is telling that in the 2009 gold cup ruby said his plan was to follow neptune collonges over the second last but kauto "took him there" after the 4th last amd only denman could live with him. The rating  and performance that day was only a result of the horse making the decision and not the jockey. A similar thing happened at kempton last year, the race happened and ruby was required to do nothing but shake the reins after the 2nd last.

It begs the question, exactly how good is a horse who does not run in handicaps? So how good was best mate?

*wife = wide,

smartphone again, it ain't so smart is it?

Hi Cv - It is all about opinions and we simply differ here. As i stated I spent years studying the issue of tactical speed - eventually I arrived at the point where I started to ask why if this is an issue why are all of the times in the top grade 1s so closely matched, and even more significantly remain so when split into races run on comparative going. And why is this especially true at Cheltenham ?

I have never owned a horse with a finishing kick over a jumps distance - and I don't believe I ever will. Horses never operate within a comfort zone when galloping, there metabolism is working at maximum capacity to maintain the movement required. A champion racehorse is a delicate piece of machinery - he has a respiratory system capable of introducing oxygen to the lungs at a rapid rate, a set of lungs able to diffuse that oxygen to blood stream and a heart able to pump the blood around his body at a rate sufficient to allow the oxygen to transfer to the muscles and fuel the movement required to maintain his pace. In reverse he has to have a system capable of taking the waste carbon dioxide into the blood stream from the muscles, diffusing back through the membrane into the lungs and expelling it. When he is galloping he is breathing in time to his stride, so he is performing this process two and a half times a second.

The superior horse is able to maintain this process for a longer period, hence a further distance. Ultimately the limits on performance are physical, as in graded races horses are always giving maximum effort and operating to the limit of their abilities the results you get are remarkably consistent. That appears to be true regardless of the early or late speed, as a horse giving its all is doing simply that and the horse with the greater physical capability will succeed. 

At Cheltenham all horses will be pushed to the limit of their capability, the nature of the course and the intensity of the competition guarantees this - hence the reason I believe that in the GC the horses can always be split into three groups, those who have proved they can reach the standard required to win a gold cup, those who have proved the cannot, and those whose ability has still to be established.

Another Long Run thread goes off topic!

Can't understand this fellas price for the Ryanair. Recent entries have been made up of has-beens, slow 2 milers or up-and-comings who arent ready to win over 3 miles. It may have been recently upgraded but it dont look like a grade one to me yet. Win, lose or fall in the preps, why would he go Feltham-RSA-KG-Ryanair?
With natural improvement this season he looks like a lively gold cup outsider. Has already shown maturity for a young horse. If they want to save him a bit (and especially if its wet in march) then the champion chase looks far too winable to be thinking about the Ryanair. imo.

The Paddy Power is Long Runs first major target and Whaley Cohen rides already

Sorry chaps.  I took this to the top, before I read it, in the belief that it was a Long Run thread.