Cheltenham Festival
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Long Run
Long Run
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Replies: 88
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Have to say I overlooked him completely last year. I think you're slightly mad if you think he'll progress to a Gold Cup horse Abbott. That'll be from 142 up to at least 175 last 3 winners were 182,186,185. I agree he's well in for PP though and clearly has course form.
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Think Princesse means Grands Crus
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Princesse means SF [smiley:crazy]
Had forgotten all about your one though Abbott - plenty of potential plots from the yard. |
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flat track bully who has no chance of getting up the hill at cheltenham at any trip. over rated
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and also fiddles about too much at his fences. very much like big bucks jumped ences . stick him over hurdles and let big bucks laugh at him
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CV, why's that an unreasonable step-up? Remember Long Run is only 5 years old. He has a long road ahead of him. He's already rated 161 now. Completely within his reach to improve an extra 15lbs over time. Yes his jumping isn't the greatest but that can only improve. Already finished third in an RSA getting only a pound from the older horses. He probably got to the front too soon, he seemed to pull the jockey there. Not saying he would have beaten WA because he wouldn't have, but that's still a fine effort for a 5yo.
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y can his jumping only improve? could easily get worse
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I highly doubt that. Love how you think he should go over hurdles though.
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The only barrier to great success is the man on top. He's already a Grade 1 winner over both Hurdles and Fences
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Wicketd I'm not talking about Long Run. I was talking about the horse abbott and ftm were on about.
Long Run is young and has plenty of talent and time to progress to a Gold Cup horse. |
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Oh. Apologies.
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Amongst the big boys now his jumping is unlikely to be up to scratch unless he has had intensive schooling over UK fences. The jockey isnt as cool as the top jocks and doesnt have the confidence to put the horse right. Will impress against a bunch of camels without his jumping put under pressure early doors seeing his price shorten for everything under the sun. Against top class horses will be exposed over staying trips.
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I have a feeling that the Jewson form may prevail over the Byrne Plate form - the Plate was run in a decent time (4 seconds quicker than the Jewson), but the winner of the Jewson lugged a stone more. There will be 5lbs between the winners in they both turn up in the PP - I think the Hobbs horse will be a huge price.
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Possibly Bobby but there is more progression in the Pipe horse than Hobbs one me thinks.
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Not sure about that CV, the third horse from the same yard was beaten just over 3 lengths in the Byrne giving 2lbs, the Jewson winner is regarded to be much better than that - and I anticpate it will be big value compared to the Pipe horse which will be supported from all quarters.
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how has this turned into a pipe thread y not start a new 1? BACK ON TOPIC I think Long Run will cruise the King George IF the right man is on board.
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CV im not saying he is acert or anything like that but if I can get +500 on a horse that I think will turn up on the day then Ill be happy with that.
Celestial Gold was a similar type who won the PP of 136 then the Hennessey of 142. He started 9/2 for that seasons gold cup(admitidly finishing nowhere) I personally think that a win in both the above mentioned races would mertit a place in the gold cup come march. |
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What are we discussing? Long Run, Dawn Run, Run For Free, Free Willy or a Willy Bashing contest about who can be most smug about some unnamed David Pipe horses?
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lol
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I see what you mean abbott, betting that he'll be in the race not that he'll progress enough to win it. Anyway best let this get back on topic.
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y is long run going over hurdles such a bad idea. jumps fences like big bucks did. wouldnt stay over 3 miles at cheltenham
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He's only 5yo, give him a chance to progress. He's got a poor jockey on board which isn't helping him. Kauto had jumping problems in his early days and he overcame them to win a few races. Give Long Run a bit of time, don't expect the finished article this season.
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Much depends on the on going debate between Nicky Henderson and Walley Cohen. No doubt the Wally will be saying Gold Cup while Nicky will be telling him the Ryanair is his race.
The horse has too much speed to be a Gold Cup horse plain and simple. He could possible shake up Kauto Star in the King George but realistically he'd either have to improve 2 stone or Kauto Star would have to get his tail trapped in the starting stalls. Considering there are no starting stalls that just about sums up his chances of doing that. |
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Think this is the Long Run thread that's the keeper.
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Bound to go off topic at some point though!
Very interested listening to SWC yesterday about the schooling Long runs received and sounded like SWC has had a bit of schooling himself! Good call roger - are you laying off or staying on? |
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Roger - How you playing it after yesterday ? I did the KG/GC double and have laid some already. I am concerned that Cheltenham is not his track and also that yesterday looked so good partly due to the Henderson horses being further forward.
Only laid my stake back. Just wondered how others who've backed him are thinking. |
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To tell you the truth, I could do with some advice.
On the one hand I backed LR specifically for this scenario: runs well in the King George (which I could always see happening, if not him winning). The owners forget the always tenuous idea of him going for anything other than the Gold Cup, his price contracts, I lay off and everything is wonderful. Except of course I;m a backer by instinct and a pretty liberal one at that. I can stand long losing runs. providing I can have that one day in the sunshine every so often when the 10/1 winner(s) go in and I make it all back and then some (I'm not bragging, just outlining my punting comfort zone and instinct). So now I'm sitting on a pretty incredible (for me) potential win and naturally I've got greedy! Help!! |
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Not sure on how you backed him. I've done the special double so he needs to win the GC for a return. Laid my stake back at 7/1 but could take double and still win a good amount. I am also being too greedy as I do feel that while Kempton is most certainly Long Run's track, Cheltenham does not appear to be. It is a nice dilemna.
If you have him specifically for the Gold Cup and backed him yesterday independently then you can just be easy osy but with no return yet and the hard bit still to do I felt I had to make sure I didn't lose. |
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could be a multiple winner of the King George,but dont think he will win a Gold Cup.Races are chalk and cheese,he has just won impressively at Kempton amd failed at Cheltenham twice,and the Paddy Power he really was chucked in after that seeing that yesterday.
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Yeah Bud, his Paddy Power run is something I've got to justify. Future GC winners win Paddy Powers with their heads in their chest, top weight or not.
His RSA defeat I can live with, coming at the end of a very busy season including several races in France prior to him fetching up at Henderson's. |
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Looked convincing yesterday and jumped well though had I been a layer, he'd have been a 'till the cows come home' prospect - I thought him ridiculously hyped given his bare form.
So I am still a bit biased. KS did not turn up; Albertas needs top of the ground, Nacarat is a handicapper. Forpady was amiss. POS 'choked' (and is much over-rated anyway, imo) and The Nightingale went wrong. Very unreliable form but good luck! |
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Not that I'm one for handicap marks and pounds per length etc but it'll be interesting to see what the handicapper makes of Long Run in light of yesterday.
Through an (underperforming) Kauto or a more solid Nacarat, Long Run (162 going into the KG) must be rated at least 180 now, which makes him a solid GC contender. Yet I can't help but feel LR still has it all to prove at Cheltenham. |
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Long Run just turned 6yo. No matter what he's proven thus far, he is an exceptional horse. Be that just at one track we will surely find out. But being a backer for the RSA and Paddy Power I have some animosity towards the horse.
How can a talented horse like that lose off a 158??? |
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Official ratings have been going out of control in recent years but if that merits a 180 Im giving up on them.
I was never a fan of Best Mate but at his best he was only given a rating of 175, to say that Long Run should be given 180 for beating a 160 rated horse and a horse who didnt perform is mental. By the way roger Im not saying that your mental just teh current ratings given out. |
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The RSA run when I'm convinced he was over the top was actually a decent enough run for a 5yo who had been on the go for ages. Took a bump of Weapon's Amenesty at the final turn and only lost 2nd to a good horse in the last stride. Jumped poorly but tanked through the race. That run although beaten is not a real concern.
The Paddy Power run is baffling because if he hadn't run in the Paddy Power he'd be favourite for the Gold Cup I'd reckon. I thought he was superb yesterday jumped way better by Cohen letting him adjust himself and the Gold Cup will be the acid test to whether it really is Cheltenham that catches him out cos he has every attribute to be a Gold Cup winner. |
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agree he an exceptional horse bt still needs to prove himself around chel.
im sure i herd on timeform radio he's got a rating of 175 and kauto ran 30lbs below his rating. |
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His RSA run wasnt bad as his jock didnt know where to have him. One big thing is Cheltenham is an undulating course and more than the horse poss not liking it I feel the jock def doesnt.
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I agree abbott, once you have 3 horses one 180+ the horse that beats them has to get a similar rating, hence the system gets inflated.
Did anything other than Long Run, Riverside and Nacarat run any kind of race in the King George? All the rest are giving the excuses. |
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No Abbott, that's fine - I am 'mental' re handicap marks. I took a 24 l beating of what I thought was a sound yardstick in Nacarat (rated 158)literally.
I agree that handicap ratings and the whole 'pounds per length' method of form evaluation is flawed and not my method of examining a race. Some swear by it though and it was those I was addressing with my thoughts re LR's revised mark. I'll U-turn out of this cul-de-sac I;ve run down. Don't feel cofortable in this part of town. Now (you'll have to forgive my general whittling and mother henning over all this, but there's a lot riding on this for me). Will LR stay an extra 2.5 furlongs on an undulating track? And why has Nicky Hendeson never trained a Gold Cup winner or anything approaching one? |
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To me he just looks like a Kempton lover,and a Cheltenham hater,trying to simplify things.
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