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Not sure about Nicky as hes not really had the amunition whilst Ive been watching racing. Regarding long run I see no reason that he wont stay the extra distance but his jock will need to get him to settle better in the race this year.
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Agree with posts regarding doubts on undulating track like cheltenham.I have been disappointed with both his runs there. His wins at autueil confirm he's ok left handed - but while the undulations are not what they are at celtenham the key may simply be his style of jumping.To date he has been jumping with the expectation that he can flick through the top (which he can in the french brush style fences).This must be worse on an undulating track. However his jumping which henderson and team have workedon was far better on saturday and there's no reason why this might solve the issues at cheltenham. He has a hellof an engine and I hae no doubt that the extra 2 1/2 furlung will be in his grasp if his jumping is as it was on saturday. Remember kauto star fell in the queen mother when he was getting used to the new style fences....once ironed out the rest is history.
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I posted elsewhere -
He's 6 and he's beaten a horse rated 160 by 12 lengths without being fully extended. Rivseride gave 7lbs and a 10L beating to Golan Way the time before - Golan Way is rated 146 and after receiving that beating he came out and gave 6lb and a 2l beating to Pearlysteps. Pearlysteps is rated 138 and after that beating he has since won a race himself. Riverside Theatre may or may not be genuine grade 1 material, but he loves Kempton, clearly stayed very well (has always IMo needed a trip), and is only 7 having had only 1 run outside novice company before today. He is not some exposed, ordinary old nag, he is entitled to improve, particularly on his favourite track. In 4th he beat 158 rated (possible non stayer) Nacarat by 25l - not as far as Kauto beat him last yr; A race fit Nacarat was beaten about 12l by a ring rusty Imperial Commander at Haydock (i'd expect Imperial Commander to dish out a bigger beating when at concert pitch). I have no idea whther the winner acts round Cheltenham, but he left that form miles behind today (possibly because the track was not cheltenham), and dishing out a 12l beating to Riverside Theatre is at the very least decent form (as the above demonstrates). I dont think this form should be crabbed too much though i would think 180 is at least half a stone too much. |
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The thing for me is ratings are only relevent if the horse has won a competative handicap of that mark and from memory none of the ones you mention have.
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I know what you are saying, but does this mean you would not place a rating against Kauto or Binocular?
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I think it depends what you use ratings for exactly, and they do inform my punting, even in conditions races. Arguing about them also makes for great fun!
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Not the placing of ratings just the actual useing of them as betting tool
I personally just think that in the last 5 years they have went way overboard and its getting a bit out of control. |
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Personally I only use Official Ratings as a yardstick against which to base my own unofficial ratings to see how well handicapped a horse is.
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For me Long Run has serious chance at Cheltenham has improved clearly is top class and can dominate things for awhile.
Will be a backer and will go nrnb, Horses than win King George that also run in Gold Cup any records out there for me ? |