Bloodstock & Breeding
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if this colt never won anothet race would you use him? what about Frankels brother?
I raised this on the DoM thread but have been ignored!!!
I'm curious to know how far their pedigree will take them.
And do you think they're any good?
I raised this on the DoM thread but have been ignored!!!
I'm curious to know how far their pedigree will take them.
And do you think they're any good?
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Replies: 102
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Well truehoncho, If BTS can pick up a Group win then I think as an Invincible Sprit half bro' to Galileo he would certainly have some appeal. I could imagine him standing at somewhere like Ballylinch for around 8k-10k. As a guineas winning I.S half bro to Galileo then ..........But I don't think he will win at HQ myself. As for Noble Mission, aside from being Frankel's brother he is a well-bred son of Galileo. As a brother to Frankel he is that bit more appealing, so maybe 4-5k as he stands now, group form and that could enhance appeal enough to warrant 6-7k.You ask how far pedigree will take them and my reply would be that on all evidence so far it would be pedigree alone that takes them to the covering shed. If I was trying to sell you a nomination to a twice raced son of Galileo out of any old Danehill mare would you be queuing up? How about my other horse, a Listed winning back-end 2yo son of Invincible Spirit? It is the magic names on the page that make the niche. Down to you which would you choose to use?
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Even if it goes wrong with BTS and he disapoints, which I've a feeling he will, there are plenty of handy midweek group races in Ireland to pad out the CV. Oxx could have had him out in june but for his sore shins and he looks pretty close coupled to me, I'd say he might be a bit of a 2yo type,(forward enough to land listed on debut?, bad listed but listed) he was ready for ages I'd say. This IS dealt precocity will help him in his second career, but I doubt he's a guineas horse myself. I predict this sequence blow out, low key return Group win at Leopardstown of a Thursday with about 5 runners, another tilt at Group 1, probably in France, something soft, Moulin or Foret, predictable blowout, injury cited in aftermath, ne'er seen again.
Well, that is what I'd do anyway. He'll probably do great. |
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Neill's spot on for me (other than this year I reckon the french races will be be anything but weak). Black Sam Bellamy way better than Noble Mission ever likely to get and he barely keeps afloat. Interesting one just about to run is Dubawi Gold - this boy could have been retired as a UK cheapie (remember 300 interested in 12k PV). Only appears to be going down the way now. Suppose its fair play to sporting (v. rich) owner
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Mordin rates the 2 colts that ran in the Djebel very highly alright yer ma and there doesn't look to be much dpth here so I'd say you could be right
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Born To Sea; dismissed after two runs by the Betfair Bloodstock Forum. Absolutely Laughable.
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neil d please don't say you have a feeling a horse might disappoint, again.
And yer ma please don't agree with him. You seem like perfectly decent chaps and I don't like the thought of you being 'Absolutely Laughable'  Truehoncho this seems like the silly hypothetical topic at which we excel on here! If they both retire now then I think you have no choice but to go Born To Sea because of the stakes form and the precocity. He looks to me like his race record might be a bit hybridised like his pedigree but if he stays sharpish and we are therefore minded to believe the 'he could have been out in May' tale then he will end up with a commercial start at stud. He couldn't be much more different to Galileo though so I don't think we can expect anything similar! Noble Mission really doesn't have a commercial profile and expectations of his career suggest that he is heading into late maturing stayer territory. Mmm. I am a little concerned that you could get plenty of temperament with this Galileo/Kind cocktail so I suggest you consider your mare carefully! |
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I know, he'll probably win it doing a half-speed now by 2 and a half lengths. He'll be more accessable if he flops though.
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Just in from work, great responses. If BTS wins a group 3 race but flops in a G1 I think he will still get plenty of mares in his first year if priced right. There are not too many value stallions that win a listed race first time out at 2 and any sort of group race at 3 with his pedigree. He would be my pick of the 2
After watching NM win his maiden, I think he might just be a bit better than that and may yet suprise. the horse that beat him in his maiden is well thought of. I definately agree about DG YerMa, should have retired him last year. |
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Is it just me or does "could have had him out in june but for his sore shins" mean he wasn't actually ready?
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proxygene,Yes that has been my thoughts for a while,and as for Dubawi Gold each time he runs his appeal weakens connections have completely missed the boat with him,similar scenario happened with Captain Gerrard a couple of years ago.
I agree with Pot M's point about Born to Sea being very different to Galileo,that family seems to produce two types physically imo he's sure not of the Galileo variety,Black Sam Bellamy/All too Beautiful type I'd say. |
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Apologies for taking a view on a horse BSM. That said, its what I do, indeed pretty hard to bet or make business decisions if I dont.
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Are you not at least willing to allow the half-brother of two classic winners the opportunity to run as a 3YO before you take the view ?
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Black Sam Bellamy Joined: 05 Jul 02
Replies: 180 28 Apr 12 16:58 Are you not at least willing to allow the half-brother of two classic winners the opportunity to run as a 3YO before you take the view ? But that isn't what the original question was,if you read the O P the question was framed in the terms of 'if they never won another race'and its to that that we have replied! As for it being laughable that anyone has a view on his future racing success I don't agree. Why wouldn't people have thoughts as to the horse's potential level of form based on his 2yo runs? Is that not what ante-post betting is all about? If it just came down to pedigree's then this game would be easy. In actual fact all I said was that I didn't think he would win the Gns. And I don't. That does not mean I think the horse will be no good, but just because he is a half bro to 2 classic winners does not make me think he will be one himself. |
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Article in todays Observer about John Oxx an the significance of a UK 'raid'.
I don't think you can underplay that fact. Plenty of easier options for Born To Sea than a debut next weekend. |
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Prima, my comment was in reaction to Neil's suggestion that "Even if it goes wrong with BTS and he disapoints, which I've a feeling he will". I just don't understand what the basis for such an assessment is. He looks ideal for Rathbarry if you ask me. What do you think ?
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Black Sam,I guess neill d,was basing his view on the eagerly awaited performances this year of Born to Sea,with such royal breeding everyone in this industry will be watching him and hoping he can pull it off,I hope he can bag a GR1 it would be a boost for his sire.But its never easy when the world is watching he sure does have a lot to live up too,he will have to be a fantastic runner to rank anywhere close to his big brothers and the real chances of that are pretty slim but we will see.I think neill d's comments about disappointments are due to just that.
And yes I too could see an eventual retirement to Rathbarry or similar like you say just their type. |
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I think he probably has to go to the Guineas at Newmarket to make it known that they think he can live up to his pedigree on the track even if he isn't quite on the button yet fitness wise. I've a feeling the ground might come in his favour and I wouldn't be sure a strong run mile at a stiff track like the Curragh would be in his favour if the ground is softish. Ascot off of a bend would suit him best as I reckon he's a pretty fast horse, hopefully it isn't like the road. Presume France is out as it wouldn't be the place to be seen but granted a kind draw and with the gallop they generally go there, that would have been his best chance of a classic imo, also probably the weakest race. Cannot believe Surprised that Dabarsim has gone that route anyone?
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*or even if they don't think he is quite good enough to win a Newmarket Guineas
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Hes run at 3, my view remains the same. In fact I wouldnt crib him for that run - was never going to play to strengths. Not sure Oxx would really have chosen to run with entirely free hand. French form rock solid - I've heard Dragon P 'better' than Hermival so interesting weeks ahead.
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and whaqt about NM? did he impress anyone?
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Noble Mission certainly impressed me. He is a totally different character to Frankel but given time, could be a Group 1 horse. He is clearly still very green and backward, needs a hood to calm him presumably but despite a ride that might have confused many horses and got them beaten, he won easily in the end. By October, he could be a bit special. If he had been brought round his field from the 3 pole yesterday he might have won 4 lengths and that would be a good performance. No doubt the genius of Henry Cecil has a long term plan.
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I liked him too. He runs very green and csn surely improve a good bit off that. I agree about the ride he was given, I think Cecil needs another jockey. His No1 isn't the greatest.
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If yesterdays race was NM's career target then it was a bad ride, otherwise he's learnt more than you could possibly expect from a 5 runner dawdle.
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He learned how to win from a poor position but why not teach him how to dominate a race like his brother does? I am sure that Tom was doing what he had been told to.
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He isn't Frankel. No horse gets to wear that badge but Frankel so I don't think comparisons are remotely appropriate. Looks like a really nice horse in the making but dominating races is best left to the superstars I think sage.
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You might be right potm but is it sensible to bury a big backward horse and then have to weave through a tight gap? Why not come round and let him use his stride from 3 out? Makes no sense to me but I am not Cecil or Queally.
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who knows sage what they had in mind. He certainly wouldn't look like a horse to be ridden for toe. But perhaps they will have the last laugh as The Derby will present plenty of traffic if you aren't blessed with amazing tactical speed, so a bit of weaving and scrimmaging could well have been the plan.
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He will need to grow up an awful lot in a month to be a Derby horse. The Champion Stakes perhaps if Frankel does not go there. Or even the St Leger?
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I don't know how they will campaign NM, however if he was mine he would only run further than 10f if I was confident he was G1 class and never over 16f. If he wins a G3/G2 over 8-10f he has a secong career ahead of him.
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I don't know H Cecil but under the undoubted charm I suspect that there is a pretty steely resolve. Throughout his career he seems to have been singleminded on his pursuit of what will bring out the maximum in his horses. My guess is that if it takes 1m6 for Noble Mission to win a Gp1 then that is the way he will go. I suspect that under achieving for the sake of a stud career isn't on his radar.
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Born to Sea looked a nice horse but one who looked the sort who will be better later on in the year,not entirely convinced he's a GR1 horse mind.Noble Mission looked just the sort I could see running in the St.Leger,didn't look good enough to me to be a serious Derby horse.
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Talk of the St Leger, the horse who finished 3rd to Noble Mission, the Gosden trained Michelangelo, ( having his first run ) looked like he could be a possible St Leger horse to me.
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I'm a bit surprised by that Prima as I thought early season would be his time and that then those with maybe the bit more scope would improve past him. He might have a bit more about him than I thought so. As I say, I don't think he is Group 1 class. I wonder would connections regret sending Urban Sea to Invincible Spirit, fantastic sire and all that he is, he wouldn't be one I'd immediately associate with the classic distances which is what I'd have thought they'd be aiming at. Although of course anyone would be delighted to get a runner of the calibre of BTS, I'd go a slightly different way as noone would ever expect IS to throw a Gallileo which would be the hope with a mare like Urban Sea I'd guess.
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Well neill d imo he doesn't look a early sort but I'd say he's not short of scope he has a lot of quality with good bone,his style of running to me also suggests he's going to be better later on as he's got a fair stride a bit like his brother's.
Now whilst I'd agree with your view about Invincible Spirit not being the most obvious stallion to get you a classic horse he has a very nice page a mix of speed and stamina similar in a way to Oasis Dream.I can see the thinking that putting him on a pedigree of such stamina as Urban Sea you could get a classic horse plus when he was conceived Invincible Spirit was looking serious. At the moment I doubt his connections are disappointed as the season is still early enough and he most likely will come on for his Guineas run and who knows may yet get a GR1 win.Hindsight is a great attribute we are all wise with a dose of that.Its been well documented that connections were advised to send the great mare to Montjeu now with his untimely death I just wonder myself if they wished they had made that selection as its possible perhaps that Camelot would have a serious contender opposing him at Epsom and what a mouthwatering stallion prospect that would of been. |
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That is very informative Prima, the Montjeu type mating was what I was kind of getting at but then as you say there are quick horses like Oasis Dream that can get the likes of Midday. I doubt Cape Cross would have been the most obvious choice for her either and that turned out pretty well. I'm glad to hear he's a proper miler on looks anyway and no matter what happens this year he should slot in well as a stallion. Just on Oasis Dream, the prospect of hime being used with Coolmore mares can propel him on to the next level again I'd say.
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I don't think I'd of sent Urban Sea to Cape Cross but then again it wouldn't be me going down in history as the breeder of Sea the Stars and as you point out it certainly turned out pretty well to say the least.We can all only dream of the Montjeu mating,I have an idea breeders will for years speak of the potential merits that could of given the bloodstock world.
I've said it before but I have my doubts Sea the Stars will be overall much cop,I can see him getting some good runners but he's not one I'd have down as being truly commercial long term.If he is a success it will be down to his dam and not his sire as Cape Cross is poor as a sire of sires and he's had plenty of time to show us any ability in that department. Oasis Dream matched with some Coolmore mares could be just what he needs now as like invincible Spirit he needs to up the anti otherwise you take the view he's looking a touch expensive.With him I feel he gets two sorts either fast 2 y'old types(who don't train on)that are on the small side but saying that he is a smallish stallion and his family are noted for being small but that doesn't them running or later maturing sorts who want a bit of a trip.I'm going to keep an eye on Powers next run as I have wondered if he has trained on,his next outing should tell us more. |
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On the subject if Oasis Dream, I noticed (afraid i'm nowhere near as up to date as you fellas!) that Kind's 2yo this year is by him. Will be interested to see the outcome of that.
To the usual suspects - very interesting thread here as always, very much enjoy reading your views! |
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Well Doc. Very fast mare, even faster sire and 3x3 to Danzig.
I've not got a clue which way the 2yo will go though. Totally fascinating! Sea The Stars is a 1/2 brother to a useful sire - I forget his name - and was more precocious and needed less of a trip but then again they have the physique that is more appropriate to each others aptitude really. It'll never cease it's endless fascination this game, will it!! |
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It'll never cease it's endless fascination this game, will it!!
You can say that again! Will certainly be interesting to see what HRAC gets out of this one, as you say. I see the last couple of years she's been back to that 1/2 brother of Sea The Stars you mentioned earlier  |