Betting.Betfair

Brighton v Nottm Forest

Wrong price alert! Team in seventh at home to team in 22nd, surely the hosts would be around even money . . . at best? I saw the price, so I checked the current form table - perhaps there was a clue there? Nope, Brighton are 10th over the last six games, Forest are 19th. Therefore, to be able to back Albion at 2.36 really does look the bet of the weekend to me. Admittedly the Seagulls were well off colour a few weeks ago, as they went nine games without a win. But they have recaptured the form that saw them top the table in mid-September and have won three of their last four, including both their last two at home.

By contrast, Forest were stuffed 4-0 at home by Leeds in midweek to make it four defeats in their last six - and they have also failed to score in those four losing outings. They have lost four of their last five away games, and may just have run into Brighton at the wrong time to improve that run. I'd have been happy to back the home side at a price around 2.0, to get 2.36 makes me very happy.

Back Brighton @ 2.36


Ipswich v Watford

There will be a few people going out and buying real Christmas trees this weekend - even if they don't water them they can be pretty certain the needles won't drop as quickly as Ipswich have over the last few weeks. The Tractor Boys were 6th in October - six straight defeats later and they are 20th in the table. The fact that they have conceded a whopping 18 goals during that miserable run shows where the problem lies, and the 4-0 drubbing at Burnley in midweek only underlined the terrible defensive problems Paul Jewell has to solve.

Jewell will be grateful his back four are this weekend facing a Watford attack that has managed just two goals in its last five away games, but notwithstanding the Hornets poor scoring form on the road, I think they may well edge this one. They have lost once in their last six - to a highly contentious goal at Middlesbrough - and the fact they have let in just five goals in that run shows they may well have overcome their own defensive frailties from earlier in the season.

Back Watford in Draw No Bet @ 2.2


Bristol City v Middlesbrough

Having seen Bristol City come from two goals down to draw at Watford in midweek, all the signs are that the Robins will not be involved in the sort of relegation threat that has looked likely so far this season. Okay, so they were gifted their equaliser by a freak own goal but they played some neat, pacy football and were only undone by a long-range strike and another that hit the bar and was followed up. Derek McInnes has got them playing with confidence and they have real danger men in Nicky Maynard and Albert Adomah. The midweek draw made it six without defeat and they have won their last two at home, including beating leaders Southampton last weekend.

Middlesbrough are without a win in three games, and their only away win in their last five attempts came at basement boys Doncaster. They were beaten at home on Tuesday by West Ham and while they may only be suffering a stumble, they could have picked the wrong time to be going to Ashton Gate.

Back Bristol City @ 2.76

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Stoke, v Dynamo (Live on ITV4)

Stoke are top of Group E with ten points from four matches. A draw at home to Dynamo Kiev this week will take them over the line and into the knockout stages. Dynamo really need to win, but that's not something they've done on English soil before (W0-D1-L9 in previous games).

Tony Pulis' team beat Blackburn 3-1 at the Britannia on Saturday, ending a run of four league defeats, but they are not in the class of Dynamo's previous English opponents.

Stoke's last eight games in all competitions have finished with three goals or more, while two of Dynamo's four European away matches this season have been similarly high-scoring. Pulis has said he will play his newly demoted No. 2 keeper, Asmir Begovic, and this too suggests there's value in backing Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10, especially as the boss says he wants to win, not just draw, in order to secure top spot with a game to spare.

If you fancy the visitors to score, keep an eye on Andriy Yarmolenko. He's Andriy Shevchenko's strike partner and he's outscored the veteran by 11 goals to four in the Ukrainian league this season. Ten of those goals have come in his last ten games. Shevchenko will lead the goalscorer markets for Dynamo, but the value is with Yarmolenko and you might find him at 4.0 or better.

Recommended Bet: Back Andriy Yarmolenko To Score @ 4.0

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21:45 Eclipse final

T1 Mill Bling Bling
Bids for a third Category One victory (and to further enhance his Greyhound of the Year claims) after victories in the Steel City Cup and All England Cup (also from trap one). Readily beaten by Boher Paddy in the first round but has won four from six here and is a greyhound for the big occasion.

T2 Ballymac William
Third in last year's final but has run only six times since, gaining a somewhat fortuitous first win of the season in the semi-final. Should be better suited by this draw (runner-up in both previous starts here from trap two), but despite high class form as a youngster has a bit to find.

T3 Bowtime Joey
Dropped back to four bends for this after reaching the Yorkshire Leger semi-finals and gained a first Nottingham win (at the fourth attempt) in the heats when also drawn trap three. Comparatively lighted-raced and a Gymcrack semi-finalist, but will be highly tested here.

T4 Tudor Prince
Also contesting his second Eclipse final having finished fifth in 2010. Fully deserving of a big prize having been runner-up to Mill Bling Bling Bling in both the Steel City Cup and All England Cup; he was also third in the Laurels. Bound to be involved again but has won only one of his last eight Nottingham starts.

T5 Boher Paddy
The only unbeaten finalist to take his Nottingham record to five wins from six starts (his sole defeat came when finishing second in the Select Stakes). Faced with a potentially tricky draw but has won from both traps four and five previously and is arguably in career best form. Has lost only four times in twenty career starts and will prove hard to beat.

T6 Mark My Words
Runner-up in the Produce Stakes here in October and also finished fourth in the Select, but has won only one of his last eight starts here and just one of his last ten races. Sole middle seed up against five railers but his record is only average when drawn in trap six.

A thrilling final, but with much of the attention sure to focus on dual Category One winner Mill Bling Bling and prolific winning Boher Paddy. The latter, having comfortably accounted for his rival in the heats, would be far shorter in the betting were it not for an awkward trap five draw, but arrives here in peak form and is taken to complete his six-timer. Mill Bling Bling seems to reserve his best for the big occasion and looks the obvious danger, while Tudor Prince's consistency makes him best of the rest ahead of Ballymac William.

19:40 480m
Like most of tonight's supporting races this is highly competitive, but Yahoo Jamie is a class act and can poach an early winning advantage despite a far from perfect draw. Dromana Max has an excellent record here and would be a big danger if getting out. Destroy The Camp posted a first class sprint trial.

20:00 Puppy
Wide open again but Sakara Star should be suited by this stiff 500m and can make it five wins in his last seven at the expense of littermate Mays Harvestmoon who runs this track well and would be a big threat if breaking. Coin Case continues to please.

20:15 Ladies
Another hot heat. Moving Marge would be a big player if trapping in front, while Rebellious Queen has excellent back form here, but rarely wins these days. Strong running Pond Shefelia is always a threat. But ex season Bush Whitney looks perfectly drawn and can win judged on her Oaks first round effort.

20:35 Sprint
Farloe Ashes has won four from five here and can reverse Sheffield form with Power Charge back at his favourite venue. Scurry winner Drumcove Lad also holds obvious claims but prolific winning Lil Risky may prove too sharp from an ideal 'red' draw.

20:50 Gents
Produce winner Go Go Sonic has a strong record here but faces a stiff early battle with fast starting Freds Champ, who is very capable when securing an early lead. Mill Spartacus put up a stunning effort at Doncaster and is worth following until beaten.

21:10 Stayers
Vivas Reason has won four of her last five and appears well treated on the draw outside two rails seeking rivals. Useful Fleeting Image can go well first time at a track and has to be respected, but there are fewer gamer sorts than Anfi Gem, whose four bend trial should ensure he is spot on.

21:25 Marathon
Capoley Ash continues to impress and can make it four from four in marathons - he is simply not for opposing at the moment. Ayamzagirl will doubtless run her usual good race, but Ministry Magpie could split the pair now back up in trip after a near miss in the Kent Leger on Saturday.

Selections:
Capoley Ash 21:25
Boher Paddy 21:45
Lil Risky 20:35
Mill Spartacus 20:50
Anfi Gem 21:10
Yahoo Jamie 19:40

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Mark Cavendish (Odds to win at the time of publication 2.16)
The punter who had a few shekels matched at 100.0 is now looking at a juicy trade with Cavendish the 2.18 favourite. Cav occupies his usual position at the front of the field by dint of finishing at the front of the field many times in the Tour de France as he landed the green jersey for top sprinter. In a golden year he also became world road race champion, Britain's first for 46 years. As the BBC point out, the only other Brit to land that crown - Tommy Simpson in 1965 - was also SPOTY champ. Cycling is growing in popularity in the UK and the Manxman is a worthy favourite.

Darren Clarke (3.45)
In any normal year a home golfer who had won The Open would be a shoo-in but Clarke cedes favouritism in 2011. Nevertheless, few golfers are as popular as the large-living northern Irishman and he is a very lively contender. A lack of notable success since winning at Sandwich explains his drift from odds-on to the current 3.45.

Mo Farah (9.2)
Athletics often provides the SPOTY winner and Farah could be poised to follow up on the recent successes of Kelly Holmes and Paula Radcliffe after a sterling World Championships. Farah, a 28-year-old of Somali descent, won 5,000m gold and 10,000m silver in Daegu. In recent years, podium spots in these two events have been reserved for the giants of middle-distance running - Ethiopia and Kenya, basically - making Farah's achievement all the more impressive. Sure to weigh heavily in his favour are the simultaneously heart-breaking and heart-warming images of Farah coming up short in the 10,000m, but gaining redemption with his 5,000m win just days later. Against him, is the fast that the action was on Channel 4 and thus not receiving the boost the BBC brings to these events.

Rory McIlroy (9.8)
Rounding out the list of likely winners is another Major winner - young Rors, who lifted the US Open with a stunning performance at Congressional where he simply destroyed the field. It could, probably should, have been so much better of course as McIlroy held the third round lead at The Masters before collapsing in almost embarrassing fashion. That very public display, shown live on the BBC, will garner sympathy but it was a losing display, while only a tiny minority will have seen the US Open win. Could McIlroy's 700,000+ Twitter followers play a decisive role, however?

Luke Donald (50.0)
A third golfer rounds out the top five and that concentration from one sport will surely dilute the voting too much for Donald to have a say. It has been a wonderful year for Luuuuuuuke, the current world no.1, who has finished in the top 10 of countless tournaments. But the lack of a Major win will surely count against him.

Alastair Cook (65.0)
It's been a stellar year for Cook, who carted India's bowlers to all corners of England's Test arenas as the national team rose to the top of the rankings, having already bigged the Aussies for 766 runs in the Ashes series of 2010-11. Will it be enough? At 65.0 the market clearly suggest not, but don't dismiss the popularity of cricket in the UK and the fans may want to salute the England team's achievements in 2011. Cook may be a top three bet, but the 4.8 quote seems a tickle skinny.

Amir Khan (110.0)
Does winning one fight really deserve the prized SPOTY silverware? Highly doubtful. Khan is in on the strength of beat Zab Judah in July's light-welterweight unification fight. The Boltonian will get a better shot at this, but only after an eye-catching winning run against more famous opponents in future years.

Dai Greene (140.0)
The second athlete on the list was Britain's only other gold medallist at the 2011 World Championships, Welshman Greene who won the 400m hurdles. But while Farah trades at 9.2 for SPOTY glory, Greene is a whopping 140.0. Two medals are quite obviously better than one here and athletics voters will surely go for the middle distance man.

Andrew Strauss (210.0)
The captain of England's all-conquering Test team can bask in the squad's glory, but there's little personal achievement to look back on with no centuries during the defeats of India. He did get an OBE though, which we're sure he's very proud of.

Andy Murray (200.0)
In truth this has been a very good year for Murray, who until last week was ranked the world's third best player. But with no Grand Slam victory, there's nothing exceptional to attract the sufficient weight of votes required.

Recommended Bets
3pts Back Mark Cavendish to win @ 2.16
1pt Back Mo Farah to win @ 9.2
1pt Back Alastair Cook for top 3 @ 4.8

Utterly rudderless without a coach and with the governing body in turmoil, few are rushing to back England to win the 2012 Six Nations but there are compelling reasons to get behind the Twickenham boys, says the Betfair Contrarian

After a World Cup more memorable for the players' off-the-field antics than their performances on it, English rugby last week achieved a level of turmoil that the Football Association could only dream of when the media got hold of the "confidential" report into their World Cup misery. Yet though currently coachless and void of direction, the Contrarian anticipates a bright future for the England team, beginning with victory at next year's Six Nations at 4.1...


World Cup heroes often flop at the Six Nations...
Understandably given their success at the Rugby World Cup, France are rated 2.98 favourites to win the Six Nations, followed by the side that they beat in the semi-finals, Wales, at 3.85. However, there is a historic tendency for the top European performers at a World Cup to then underwhelm half a year down the line at the Six Nations, perhaps finding it a struggle to hit peak form in a tournament that doesn't seem quite so significant after a star turn on the ultimate stage. England missed out on the prize in 2004 and 2008, having entered as World Cup winners and runners-up respectively, while 1999 World Cup finalists France lost two home games at the next Six Nations. Les Bleus suffered a similar slump after finishing third in 1995, even enduring a rare defeat to Scotland.

...Whereas England handle that shift better than most
The Six Nations that follows a World Cup effectively starts a new four-year cycle leading towards the next scrap for the Webb Ellis Cup. England tend to kick off those sequences more impressively than most, claiming the springtime silverware in three of the last five post-World Cup editions (a 60% strike rate). Considering that their record in the years other than those triumphant campaigns is four wins in 15 attempts (a 27% strike rate), their post-World Cup displays look formidable by comparison. In that period, some of their most stunning showings occurred after disappointing World Cups, bouncing back from their quarter-final exit in 1999 with a first Six Nations victory in four years, and beating World Cup finalists France in their own backyard along the way.

And England are holders after all
Easily forgotten in the wake of a shambolic few months in New Zealand is the fact that England actually started 2011 strongly, even offering brief glimpses to suggest that they could be genuine contenders. And as Martin Johnson ponders his next career move, he can take solace from having been the man who ended an eight-year wait for Six Nations success, England's longest barren run since 1991. In recent decades, they have been streaky in the competition, winning three times in four years prior to the drought and four in six between 1991 and 1996 in between two other lean spells.

The calibre of coaching should improve
It was no real surprise to see the quality of Johnson's leadership criticized in the leaked report into England's World Cup woes, given both his greenness and the adage about great players rarely scaling the same heights from the sidelines. The 1.41 favourite to replace him is Jim Mallinder. The 45-year-old ticks the experience and success boxes - he's been in the coaching game for a decade and has guided Northampton Saints from the second tier to the Heineken Cup Final and lifted cups along the way. He is familiar with the international setup too having led England at youth level, (and won their version of the Six Nations), and the England Saxons before.

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Robin van Persie's scoring record over the past year has been nothing short of exceptional but despite being all the rage in 'first goalscorer' and 'to score' markets, he's still available at value prices. Not to mention as Premier League top goalscorer, according to Andrew Atherley.


Robin van Persie is the hottest striker in the Premier League right now and that's good news for Arsenal fans, Arsenal backers and those who have been putting their money on the flying Dutchman in the goalscorer markets.

There is every reason to expect his great scoring run to continue when Arsenal host Fulham on Saturday and the stats indicate he is excellent value as first goalscorer.
Since his return from injury late last year, van Persie has been first goalscorer in eight of his 29 Premier League starts at a rate of 28 per cent, he has scored at any time an incredible 19 times out of 29 (66 per cent) and, with 31 league goals in the year to date, he is fast closing in on Alan Shearer's 1995 record of 36 in a calendar year.

Not that any of this should be too surprising, for van Persie has long been one of the deadliest strikers in the Premier League - when fit.

His anytime goalscorer rate has dipped below 40 per cent in just one of the five seasons since he became established as a first-choice striker in Arsene Wenger's team, and since the start of the 2009-10 season it has been running at 63 per cent. That strike-rate over the past two and a quarter years equates to odds of 1.59 in the To Score market, where he has been great value for backers.

Now that he is on an injury-free run at long last, there seems to be no stopping van Persie. At his scoring rate since the start of 2009-10, he will notch a minimum of 16 goals in Arsenal's remaining 26 league games, which would give him an end-of-season total of 29 that will be hard to match.

He is favourite in the Top Goalscorer market at 3.0 and those odds look good - the biggest element of risk being whether he can steer clear of injury.

In individual matches the stats point to different ways of backing him, home and away.
At home is where he has his best strike-rate as first goalscorer - six times in 13 league starts in 2011 (43 per cent). Arsenal enjoy the lion's share of possession in almost every game at the Emirates and create most of the chances, so it follows that van Persie - as the team's main goalscorer and penalty-taker - is a strong favourite to score the opening goal.

A stronger favourite, in fact, than the odds indicate, which means there is still value to be had for backers.

In away games he is the standout pick to score at anytime. His strike-rate on the road is a remarkable 73 per cent in 2011, with just four failures to get on the scoresheet in 15 Premier League starts.

With more competition from the home team, he is less likely to be first goalscorer in away games, but Arsenal's attacking policy on the road increases the chance of their main striker scoring at some point in the game.

Since the start of the 2009-10 season, Arsenal have had the best away scoring record in the Premier League (scoring in 38 of their 44 games). Van Persie has been fit to start only half of those games but has scored in 15 (68 per cent).


Pick of the stats

West Brom v Tottenham

Spurs have won eight out of eight against teams outside the top four


Liverpool v Manchester City

Liverpool have lost just two out of nine league games against the big six under Kenny Dalglish


Recommendations

Robin Van Persie to be first goalscorer v Fulham
Robin Van Persie to be Top Goalscorer in 2011-12 at 3.0
Liverpool off -0 on Asian handicap v Manchester City at 2.06


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One of the few players who looks to be fully fit, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, faces in Rafael Nadal a player who is anything but fit. Side with the big-serving Frenchman to send Nadal home, says Sean Calvert.

As I said yesterday, there's every chance of you getting a game if you take your kit and hang around the O2 long enough and it just got weirder at the World Tour Finals on Wednesday.

After having had a match point, first alternate Janko Tipsarevic fell over when match point down to my tip Tomas Berdych and left the court limping and defeated.

And then we saw David Ferrer beat Novak Djokovic in straight sets - the first time that's happened in a year and the worst performance by the Djoker all year in, his own words.

Regular readers might recall that I backed Ferrer to win this event last year at a huge price and he lost all three matches, so it's particularly galling that the scurrying Spaniard is now playing off the charts.

Djokovic was all over the place last night and who knows what sort of condition he's really in at the moment.

So, all of this means that there's every chance that Nicolas Almagro might have to fill in for the first alternate - or perhaps Mardy Fish, if the American decides not to play today against Roger Federer.

Apparently, Fish is going to turn up, but he stands very little chance of causing an upset against the Swiss maestro in his suspect physical state. So in the bizarro world of the Tour Finals, that means lump on Fish at 8.4 - he'll probably win in straights.

In reality, the only thing is Fish's favour is that he stands no chance of qualifying so he can go out and enjoy it against Fed, but then again the Swiss has qualified already, so he's under no pressure either.

There's little value in backing Federer at 1.13 to win, so it's worth looking at the alternative markets in this one.

Although Federer is 6-1 up in the head-to-heads, Fish has won one and gone close in the second of their last two meetings and he has out-aced the Swiss in six of their seven meetings, so it might be worth siding with Fish at 2.1 in the most aces market.

The pair haven't played each other so far this year and they've never met on an indoor court before, but based on Fish's injury restricted effort against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Federer's current form, it's hard to make a case for the American number one.

Further bad news for Fish is that Federer is unlikely to ease off, as only once in his nine previous year end championships appearances has the Swiss lost his third round robin match once qualified.

That was against Juan Martin Del Potro in 2009 and in his final group match last year, Federer beat Robin Soderling in straight sets.

It must also be remembered that Fish has lost six of his last seven matches and so all in all, the logical bet has to be Federer -4.5 games on the handicap at 1.73.

The second match of the day is scheduled to be Rafa Nadal against Jo Wilfried Tsonga, with the big Frenchman the favourite at around 1.76.

This is due to Rafa's below par efforts at the O2 so far this week and the fact that he's been ailing from both sickness and an injured shoulder.

After a severe drubbing from Roger Federer on Tuesday night, Rafa will no doubt want to put on a better show for the London audience tonight, but how much will he want to test his shoulder with the Davis Cup Final coming up?

Tsonga has justified his status as my long shot in this event thus far, with a decent showing against Federer and a straight sets win over Mardy Fish.

On form, you simply have to side with Tsonga in this one, as we know he can beat Rafa on a hard-court, but interestingly, he has lost both matches indoors to Nadal.

And both of those wins for Nadal came on quick indoor courts in Rotterdam and Paris. But Tsonga is a much improved player since 2009 when both of those matches took place and Rafa looks like he can't wait to go on holiday at the moment.

Tsonga on the other hand is fit (hopefully), eager and ready to take his place in the semi finals. Back the big man to do just that.


Recommended Bets

Back Federer -4.5 games versus Fish at 1.73
Back Tsonga to beat Nadal at 1.76


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There is plenty at stake when Bayer Leverkusen host Chelsea in Group E on Wednesday night, writes James Eastham.


Leverkusen v Chelsea, 19:45, Live on ITV1, Match Odds: Leverkusen 3.55, Chelsea 2.32, Draw 3.4.

Match Odds

Andre Villas Boas' side top the pool with 8pts, followed by Leverkusen on 6pts. Valencia lie in third on 5pts, with Genk on 2pts - so there is everything to play for in this clash at the BayArena.

Leverkusen will have drawn great confidence from Chelsea's poor domestic form. The Blues arrive with their Portuguese manager having to field questions from the press about his future - and while suggestions he may face the sack are overblown, he will undoubtedly be worried about their form.

Chelsea have vast European experience, of course, but their away record this season leaves plenty to be desired - they drew 1-1 in Valencia and could then manage only the same scoreline against a Genk side they really should have beaten.

At the available prices, backing the hosts at 3.55 or the draw at 3.4 are the smart bets, or lay Chelsea at 2.35.


Over / Under 2.5 Goals

Group E has been low-scoring so far: five of eight games have had under 2.5 goals, with the goals-per-game average of 2.5 bloated by Chelsea's 5-0 home win over Genk. Both Chelsea's away games featured under 2.5 goals (1-1 draws) and the visitors may take a defensive approach as a draw would be enough to keep them in a strong position in the group with a home game against Valencia to come on the final matchday.

Leverkusen will look at Chelsea's away performances in the group, plus their defending in recent domestic matches, and fancy their chances of claiming all three points. I expect an attacking approach from the German hosts, leading to an open match. Over 2.5 goals is 2.08, unders 1.9. I prefer the former.


Both Teams to Score?

Chelsea have conceded in both away games in the group, and are defending poorly in the Premier League. Leverkusen kept a clean sheet at home to Genk (2-0) but conceded against Valencia (2-1). They have kept clean sheets in only three of their last 13 matches.

As an alternative to over 2.5 goals, consider backing 'Yes' in the Both teams to Score? market at 1.81. 1-1 in the correct score market at 7.2 is also worth looking at.

Best Bet: Lay Chelsea @ 2.34.

Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals at 2.08.


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It goes from bad to worse, betting wise that is, for me on this year's X Factor and it's time to apportion some blame. I'm not one to point an accusing finger usually but needs must, and you lot are the ones I'm not happy with.

Do you not remember that the week before last you loved Amelia Lily, you voted her back into the competition, and you saved her from elimination with ease? And do you not remember you disliked Misha Bryan and put her in the bottom two for the second time in three weeks?

This is not a singing competition remember. We all agreed to put the acts in an order based on how much we like them, and then we proceed to vote off the least favourite each week. On Sunday we were supposed to get rid of Bryan, not Craig Colton. Anyway, I've had a whip round and I've managed to put a few quid together to wager on a few certainties this weekend. But remember, stick to the plan; Lily and Bryan are still bottom of our list.

Nothing should surprise us anymore on this year's show. Just look at Little Mix (Rhythmix). They were matched at 150.0 to win the competition five or six weeks ago, now they are vying for favouritism at around 3.2. In fact, every one of the five remaining acts has been favourite at some point.

To be fair, Little Mix have arguably been the best performers in recent weeks, and Saturday's rendition of En Vogue's Don't Let Go elevated them to the 'very possible winners' status. For a girl group to get to the last five on the X Factor is some achievement, but for a girl group to get to the last five from 16 finalists having never been in the bottom two of a public vote speaks volumes for both their talent and popularity.

And it's that talent v popularity debate that is oh so vital from this point in.

I was being flippant earlier when I said that The X Factor isn't a singing competition, but there is more than an element of truth to that comment. All five remaining acts have proved they are capable of winning the competition; in other words, on their day they're as good as each other. And that means that who wins simply boils down to who has the most fans.

Singing ability is almost a second requirement now. True, a good or bad week on the stage might win or lose a performer 5,000 votes, but that is likely to make very little difference to someone who has a whole country (Janet Devlin - Ireland) or city (Marcus Collins - Liverpool) behind them.

And it's the popularity factor that means I can easily rule out Lily (9.0) and Bryan (14.0) from winning this year. I live in a town just outside of Middlesbrough and there's very little support for 'our' girl up here; nothing in the local papers, nothing on the local news, and 'Boro itself - and the surrounding towns - are tiny in population. Bryan on the other hand just seems generally unpopular, and it appears a day doesn't go by without some negative press about her. This will surely take its toll this weekend or next.

It's difficult to work out how much support, and where from, Little Mix have, so at this stage I'd be reluctant to get them on side. But if you haven't already had a bet this year then my advice would be to split your stakes on Collins (3.2) and Devlin (5.2) in the Winner market - both of whom appear to have huge support.

To this week's bets then. I will be gutted if Little Mix get eliminated without me backing them after being unsure of their support, so a small wager goes on them at 21.0 in the 12th Elimination market.

But I have to make Lily my main bet in this market at 3.5 with a saver on Bryan at 3.1. A Lily or Little Mix exit will result in a good profit, a Bryan exit will result in us breaking even on this market. A bet on Misha/Amelia at 3.2 in the Bottom Two Combo market is also recommended, just in case the public follow the plan. You never know.

Recommended Bets
Back Amelia Lily @ 3.5 in 12th Elimination market (5pts)
Back Little Mix (Rhythmix) @ 21.0 in 12th Elimination market (1pt)
Back Misha Bryan @ 3.1 in 12th Elimination market (3pts)
Back Misha/Amelia @ 3.2 in Bottom Two Combo market (2pts)

For more X Factor betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/specials/xfactor/

Manchester United

United are level with Benfica on eight points, but should finish top of Group B if they win this match and probably avoid the big Spanish teams in the last 16. The club is W8-D2-L0 at home to Portuguese opponents, while Benfica have lost 9/12 on English soil, so Sir Alex Ferguson's team will be strong favourites to go clear at the summit of the group.

Nemanja Vidic is suspended. Eleven of the 12 goals United have conceded in the Premier League this season have come in his absence, but six of them came in one match - a match that embarrassed Ferguson, who has presumably been working his players extra hard on their defensive drills ever since.

Benfica

Three points at Old Trafford would make Benfica the group winners, but Jorge Jesus would probably think a draw highly satisfactory. After all, United have lost only one of their last 34 Champions League home games.

United's fans - perhaps their players too - should look out for Nicolas Gaitan, the attacking midfielder who Ferguson has been scouting recently.

Bolton Wanderers fans might look out for Rodrigo, who has scored Benfica's last five goals in all competitions.

Match Odds

United are 1.53 to earn the best possible result. They have kept five clean sheets in a row in all competitions since being taught a lesson by their city rivals and one goal might be enough against a team that looks worryingly reliant on a striker who managed only one goal in 17 appearances for Bolton. Despite Vidic's absence, the Man Utd Win to Nil has some appeal at 2.7.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Benfica's four group-stage games so far this season have all stayed Under 2.5 Goals, which is a 1.94 shot for this match. Three of United's four matches have been similarly low-scoring and the one that didn't - a 3-3 draw at home to Basle - came before Manchester City had exposed their defensive frailties.

Last season, three group-stage games at Old Trafford produced only three goals in total. If you fancy this match to be another low-scorer, the 1-0 and 2-0 home wins will stand out in the Correct Score market at around 8.0 apiece.

Recommended Bet: Back Man Utd Win to Nil @ 2.7

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