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Robin van Persie's scoring record over the past year has been nothing short of exceptional but despite being all the rage in 'first goalscorer' and 'to score' markets, he's still available at value prices. Not to mention as Premier League top goalscorer, according to Andrew Atherley.


Robin van Persie is the hottest striker in the Premier League right now and that's good news for Arsenal fans, Arsenal backers and those who have been putting their money on the flying Dutchman in the goalscorer markets.

There is every reason to expect his great scoring run to continue when Arsenal host Fulham on Saturday and the stats indicate he is excellent value as first goalscorer.
Since his return from injury late last year, van Persie has been first goalscorer in eight of his 29 Premier League starts at a rate of 28 per cent, he has scored at any time an incredible 19 times out of 29 (66 per cent) and, with 31 league goals in the year to date, he is fast closing in on Alan Shearer's 1995 record of 36 in a calendar year.

Not that any of this should be too surprising, for van Persie has long been one of the deadliest strikers in the Premier League - when fit.

His anytime goalscorer rate has dipped below 40 per cent in just one of the five seasons since he became established as a first-choice striker in Arsene Wenger's team, and since the start of the 2009-10 season it has been running at 63 per cent. That strike-rate over the past two and a quarter years equates to odds of 1.59 in the To Score market, where he has been great value for backers.

Now that he is on an injury-free run at long last, there seems to be no stopping van Persie. At his scoring rate since the start of 2009-10, he will notch a minimum of 16 goals in Arsenal's remaining 26 league games, which would give him an end-of-season total of 29 that will be hard to match.

He is favourite in the Top Goalscorer market at 3.0 and those odds look good - the biggest element of risk being whether he can steer clear of injury.

In individual matches the stats point to different ways of backing him, home and away.
At home is where he has his best strike-rate as first goalscorer - six times in 13 league starts in 2011 (43 per cent). Arsenal enjoy the lion's share of possession in almost every game at the Emirates and create most of the chances, so it follows that van Persie - as the team's main goalscorer and penalty-taker - is a strong favourite to score the opening goal.

A stronger favourite, in fact, than the odds indicate, which means there is still value to be had for backers.

In away games he is the standout pick to score at anytime. His strike-rate on the road is a remarkable 73 per cent in 2011, with just four failures to get on the scoresheet in 15 Premier League starts.

With more competition from the home team, he is less likely to be first goalscorer in away games, but Arsenal's attacking policy on the road increases the chance of their main striker scoring at some point in the game.

Since the start of the 2009-10 season, Arsenal have had the best away scoring record in the Premier League (scoring in 38 of their 44 games). Van Persie has been fit to start only half of those games but has scored in 15 (68 per cent).


Pick of the stats

West Brom v Tottenham

Spurs have won eight out of eight against teams outside the top four


Liverpool v Manchester City

Liverpool have lost just two out of nine league games against the big six under Kenny Dalglish


Recommendations

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Robin Van Persie to be Top Goalscorer in 2011-12 at 3.0
Liverpool off -0 on Asian handicap v Manchester City at 2.06


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