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Brighton v Nottm Forest

Wrong price alert! Team in seventh at home to team in 22nd, surely the hosts would be around even money . . . at best? I saw the price, so I checked the current form table - perhaps there was a clue there? Nope, Brighton are 10th over the last six games, Forest are 19th. Therefore, to be able to back Albion at 2.36 really does look the bet of the weekend to me. Admittedly the Seagulls were well off colour a few weeks ago, as they went nine games without a win. But they have recaptured the form that saw them top the table in mid-September and have won three of their last four, including both their last two at home.

By contrast, Forest were stuffed 4-0 at home by Leeds in midweek to make it four defeats in their last six - and they have also failed to score in those four losing outings. They have lost four of their last five away games, and may just have run into Brighton at the wrong time to improve that run. I'd have been happy to back the home side at a price around 2.0, to get 2.36 makes me very happy.

Back Brighton @ 2.36


Ipswich v Watford

There will be a few people going out and buying real Christmas trees this weekend - even if they don't water them they can be pretty certain the needles won't drop as quickly as Ipswich have over the last few weeks. The Tractor Boys were 6th in October - six straight defeats later and they are 20th in the table. The fact that they have conceded a whopping 18 goals during that miserable run shows where the problem lies, and the 4-0 drubbing at Burnley in midweek only underlined the terrible defensive problems Paul Jewell has to solve.

Jewell will be grateful his back four are this weekend facing a Watford attack that has managed just two goals in its last five away games, but notwithstanding the Hornets poor scoring form on the road, I think they may well edge this one. They have lost once in their last six - to a highly contentious goal at Middlesbrough - and the fact they have let in just five goals in that run shows they may well have overcome their own defensive frailties from earlier in the season.

Back Watford in Draw No Bet @ 2.2


Bristol City v Middlesbrough

Having seen Bristol City come from two goals down to draw at Watford in midweek, all the signs are that the Robins will not be involved in the sort of relegation threat that has looked likely so far this season. Okay, so they were gifted their equaliser by a freak own goal but they played some neat, pacy football and were only undone by a long-range strike and another that hit the bar and was followed up. Derek McInnes has got them playing with confidence and they have real danger men in Nicky Maynard and Albert Adomah. The midweek draw made it six without defeat and they have won their last two at home, including beating leaders Southampton last weekend.

Middlesbrough are without a win in three games, and their only away win in their last five attempts came at basement boys Doncaster. They were beaten at home on Tuesday by West Ham and while they may only be suffering a stumble, they could have picked the wrong time to be going to Ashton Gate.

Back Bristol City @ 2.76

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