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Chelsea v Stoke

Four games in - is that too early to think of Chelsea as top-six finishers?

Probably not. And that's bad news for the visitors: the Potters have lost 18/23 on the road to such exalted sides.

Roberto Di Matteo's lot have won their first two at Stamford Bridge by a couple of goals and lead Stoke 12-1 in meetings there over the last four seasons.

This weekend's ride should be as smooth as Patrick Swayze in that scene from Ghost, so it's all about crafting ways to turn a short price on the home win into something a little longer.

Well, Stoke have been behind at half-time in 15 of those 18 losses we mentioned earlier. The Chelsea/Chelsea double-result is on offer at 2.12.

The final margin in 12 of the 18 was a couple of goals or more, so Chelsea -1.5 on the Asian Handicap is a goer at a similar price.


Southampton v Aston Villa

The Saints have feet of clay, if you'll allow us to mangle a biblical metaphor. Nigel Adkins' side have dazzled against the Manchester sides, but lost 4/4 so far, mullered most recently by Arsenal.

Nineteen goals in those four games raises the idea of Over 2.5 Goals at an odds-against price this weekend. Just be prepared to take a cover bet too: four of Aston Villa's last nine on the road to promoted sides have finished 1-1.

The Villans are guilty on various charges of dropping points away to newbies, failing to win any of nine such matches since emerging victorious from a Birmingham derby in 2009 (W0-D5-L4).

Indeed, they haven't won any of their last ten on the road against anyone, but it's unfair to pin Alex McLeish's inadequacies on Paul Lambert, who has Darren Bent fit and free to help improve a team record of scoring just four times in those ten games.

The home side might be without Jos Hooiveld, which would mean a full debut for Maya Yoshida in central defence, and both teams look likely to score.


West Brom v Reading

Steve Clarke is blooming at the Hawthorns. A perennial assistant manager, his first two home games as the boss man brought five goals unanswered by visitors from Merseyside.

Blending Roy Hodgson's defensive legacy to some of his own ideas about passing football, the team looks solid.

Jonas Olsson, last season's fans' player of the year, is still there in central defence. All of the Black Country wants him to sign a new contract, but for now he is concentrating on improving the team's record of seven clean sheets in nine home games since February.

Reading have scored in each of their three games so far, despite taking fewer shots per game this season than anyone bar Sunderland (thanks, Opta).

While Brian McDermott's most pressing problem might be at the back, the prices on a West Brom Clean Sheet and the West Brom Win to Nil are a little bit too good to ignore.


West Ham v Sunderland

Sunderland are hard to read. They won 7/10 upon Martin O'Neill's arrival in December last year, then 2/14. That's now 2/17 after opening the new campaign with three draws.

Perhaps they stopped trying quite so hard once mid-table mediocrity was assured, but there might be a more serious problem: Bent, Gyan and Bendtner have all disappeared out of the club in the last couple of years.

Johnson, Larsson and Sessegnon can all supply the bullets, but who's going to fire Sunderland to three points? Not £12m summer signing Steven Fletcher, it seems. The Black Cats are averaging just five shots a game to date.

West Ham are yet to concede at Upon Park this term, shutting out Aston Villa and Fulham. Sam Allardyce is building another team around a stern defensive unit that looks capable of keeping Sunderland at bay, but, without Andy Carroll again, the Hammers might not be able to crack their visitors either.

Both sides have been involved in goalless draws already this season and 11.5 is a generous offer for another stalemate on Saturday afternoon. Under 2.5 Goals might also be overpriced at 1.86.


Wigan v Fulham

Fulham have conceded three goals before half-time in each of their first two away games. Wigan could do similar damage early, if only they were in their season-closing form.

But it's only September and Roberto Martinez has hardly put his passing machine back together - minus Rodallega and Moses - let alone oiled it. The Latics have lost to Chelsea and drawn with Stoke at the DW Stadium.

Martin Jol's worked quickly to fill the gaps in Fulham's team left by Dembele and Dempsey. They've gone to earn their Spurs in North London and it's a White Hart Lane veteran who's the new show south of the river.

Dimitar Berbatov scored a brace on full debut last weekend and might rate a bet at 3.2 or more to locate the Wigan onion bag this time. The Bulgarian's scored in each of his last three starts against them - which all ended in 5-0 wins for Man U - and in 6/9 since he arrived in the Premiership all those years ago.

Best Bet
Back Chelsea -1.5 @ 2.12 v Stoke

Recommended Bets
Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 in Southampton v Aston Villa
Back West Brom Win to Nil @ 3.1 v Reading
Back 0-0 Correct Score @ 11.5 in West Ham v Sunderland
Back Dimitar Berbatov To Score @ 3.25 v Wigan

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England v Afghanistan
Sky Sports 1
1500hrs BST

England start their defence of their title with what they probably thought was going to be a leisurely stroll against a raw Afghan side. Michael Lumb looks likely to be the loser in the three way fight for the opening slot, with Alex Hales partnering Craig Kieswetter. Lower down the order there probably won't be a slot for Jonny Bairstow, either, whilst Luke Wright ahould beat out Ravi Bopara for the number three position.

Afghanistan came so close against India. Their bowlers showed some real fight and even nipped out the vaunted Indian openers cheaply. What cost them dear was the regularity with which they lost wickets, leaving their lower order too much to do. Mohammed Nabi came of age as a batsman in that game, making 31 from just 17 balls. The Afghan batting order is a fluid one, so expect to see him come in higher up the order in this game.


Match Odds

England are, as you might expect, currentluy 1.05 to Afghanistan's 18.0. Whilst that is a significant shortening in the Afghan odds compared to their opening price against India (with no real difference in their opposition's price) it highlights that there is little value in the market for some of these opening group games.


England Top Batsman

As with all games against the less experienced sides, it is safest not to look beyond the opening batsmen in this market. Alex Hales has been a fairly reliable opener for England since his recall to the side and looks well priced at 4.5.


Afghanistan Top Batsman

Aside from Nabi, both Mohammad Shahzad and captain Nawroz Mangal showed some form against India. Shahzad looked jittery, though, whereas Mangal played a composed innings of 22 which included one very classy cover drive. At odds of 4.5 he looks to be the safer bet here.


Bangladesh v New Zealand
Sky Sports 1
1100 BST

Bangladesh have had a slightly rough time of it in the warm-ups, including a loss to Ireland. At times it has looked like all elements of their game have regressed, with their fielding in that game particularly shoddy. However, they have always been a side for rising to a big occasion and will want to get off to a flying start against a New Zealand side who look increasinly vulnerable on the world stage. Their side is packed full of experience and in Mushfiqur Rahim they have a pugnacious captain who never seems to know when to quit.

New Zealand had the worst possible start to their campaign when all-rounder Rob Nicol and opening bowler Tim Southee were ruled out of this game with gastric infections. Their strength in depth is not so great that they can really afford to lose either man, but if the likes of captain Ross Taylor, Daniel Vettori and Brendon McCullum all perform they should still be too strong for Bangladesh.


Match Odds

New Zealand are surprisingly short priced favourites at 1.43. Bangladesh look undervalued at 3.3.


Top Bangladesh Batsman

Opener Tamim Iqbal was the one batsman to really show some form in the warm up games and is long overdue a big score in an important game. He had a chastening experience in the IPL earlier this year, not playing a game, but claims to have learned much from the experience of training alongside some of the world's best Twenty20 players. Back him to make that big score here against a depleted New Zealand attack, at odds of 4.0


Top New Zealand Batsman

With Nicol out, New Zealand are likely to revert to their one day opening partnership of Brendon McCullum and Martin Guptill. No-one has made more runs in this form of cricket this year than Guptill, and he is a today's Recommended Bet at a price of 4.5.

For more World T20 betting articles, go to http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/20-twenty-cricket/twenty20-world-cup/

Liverpool clearly have an eye on Sunday's crunch clash with Manchester United, because manager Brendan Rodgers has left his big hitters at home for this Europa League group stage opener. Steven Gerrard, Luis Suarez and Pepe Reina have all been omitted from a youthful squad that includes summer recruits Samid Yesil, Nuri Sahin and Oussama Assaidi.

Liverpool's performances in this competition have been far from stellar. A fortunate 1-0 victory at Belarussian side Gomel was followed by a more comfortable 3-0 win at Anfield. In the playoff round the Reds were once again lucky to win 1-0 at Hearts, before needing a late Suarez leveller to salvage a 1-1 draw in the second leg. In the season as a whole Liverpool are creating chances but failing to convert them, and they have scored a paltry nine goals in eight games.

Young Boys have already played six games in this competition, and in a curious quirk only one team has scored in all six. The Swiss side squeezed past Zimbru Chisinau on penalties, before securing aggregate wins against Kalmar and FC Midtjylland. Martin Rueda's side are fifth in the Swiss Super League after eight games, and they haven't won a home game since August 12. To give Liverpool further encouragement, Young Boys have failed to score in three of their seven home matches, including the last two.

Liverpool aren't scoring freely, while it seems to either be famine or feast for the Young Boys attack. I like the look of backing No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.02, which has paid out in all of Young Boys' Europa League games, and in three out of four involving Liverpool.

The odds on a Liverpool win have lengthened since it emerged they are taking a weakened squad, but I feel there is a nice mix of experience (Jose Enrique, Jamie Carragher, Stewart Downing) and potential (Yesil, Suso, Andre Wisdom). If Sahin starts, it's worth considering he was the Bundesliga's Player of the Season two years ago. If you back Liverpool -0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.92, a win pays out and a draw will see your stake returned to you.

Recommended Bets: Back No in the Both Teams to Score market at 2.02

Back Liverpool -0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.92

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The European Champions (still sounds weird, doesn't it?) start the defence of their title against a club which is delighted to simply be back in the Champions League. It's been a long road back to the top for Juventus, and the Conte/Carrera rotation policy in Serie A so far shows that Juve are serious about mounting a proper European challenge. There were rumours this week that Juve would play a weakened side at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday, but I don't believe that for a second. They took a risk with team selection on Sunday against Genoa, and that was all geared towards being at their best in London.

The Blues' home record in this competition has to be respected, but I think that Didier Drogba will be a big loss to them in European matches. His power is something that teams from, say, Italy, don't come up against every week, and Europe's best struggled to handle him throughout his career, all the way until the last two minutes of last season's final.

Chelsea's attacking threat now comes from an unconvincing Fernando Torres, and a series of stylish midfielders, spearheaded by Eden Hazard. These, though, are the kind of attacking threats that Italian defenders have to deal with every week, and I'm confident that Chiellini, Barzagli and Bonucci, while far from perfect, will be able to repel Chelsea.

The match will be won and lost in midfield, and I like Juve. Their three of Arturo Vidal, Claudio Marchisio and Andrea Pirlo is ably supported from the flanks by Stephan Lichtsteiner and Kwadwo Asamoah, and they are a powerful well drilled unit. Too powerful possibly for Frank Lampard, John Obi Mikel and co. I could see Juve outplaying Chelsea in those areas and then the result will come down to whether they can find a way past Petr Cech. There has to be a doubt about the front two of Giovinco and Vucinic, and it's more likely that a goal threat will come from wide, with Lichtsteiner, and particularly Asamoah, providing a real goal threat.

Gary Neville coined the phrase "underlapping" to describe the runs of Leighton Baines, and Asamoah is also an excellent underlapper. He will cut inside and test the relationship between David Luiz and Branislav Ivanovic and is worth chancing in the "To Score" market at around the 13.0 mark. He scored at the weekend against Genoa, and that was his second of the season so far, after his strike in the Super Cup final.

Chelsea are too short for the win at 2.22. I'm not sure that anyone realises quite how good Juve are, and the extent to which the Italians are capable of mounting a Champions League challenge at 20.0. I fully expect both teams to qualify from this group, and am tempted to suggest that Juve can win at Stamford Bridge at 3.95, but their possible lack of goals, and indeed lack of motivation (a draw would, after all, be a good result for Juve) makes me think that the draw is the best option, with a possible lay of Chelsea thrown in to cover the win.

Under 2.5 Goals is the likeliest option if that's the kind of bet that you like, but I won't be taking a price as short as 1.77.

Recommended Bet
Chelsea v Juventus Draw @ 3.4
Kwadwo Asamoah To Score @ 13.0

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Outright market

Despite the helter-skelter nature of Twenty20, one can usually rely on statistics to ensure that a wager emerges from a pack of eight sides who can expect to go close to glory, and the third edition of this tournament is no different.

South Africa are third favourites and at 7.2 they represent solid value. They impressed greatly on their tour of England yet it is consistency which is the most important factor. With a win percentage of 69 in the last two years, they are the comfortably the most reliable.

The balance South Africa have also inspires confidence. AB De Villiers, Jacques Kallis and Hashim Amla can score quick runs up top, Albie Morkel can blast big numbers in the middle while with the ball the canny limited-overs pace bowling of Dale Steyn and Lonwabo Tsotsobe is also a comfort.

Spin will also be key in Sri Lanka and in Johan Botha they have a player who has vast IPL experience behind him and, of course, knowledge of sub-continental going.

Of course, there is always the worry that South Africa are yet to win a major ICC tournament. This has been attributed to 'choking' in the past. They may well come up short of breath again, but by that time they will be much skinnier in the betting.

With the top two in four groups progressing to a Super Eight stage, it can be a confusing competition to get one's head around. But if we use the win percentages as our guide the two Super Eight sections (the top two in each go through to the semi-fionals) should look as follows:

Group 1: South Africa (69%), England (62), Pakistan (44), Australia (38).
Group 2: Sri Lanka (62), New Zealand (62), West Indies (50), India (44).

Sri Lanka, the hosts, have to be respected with home advantage and a healthy win percentage. They should go deep into the business end. Certainly they are better value at 6.40 than India at 6.0. The inaugural winners have a disappoiting recent record despite a stellar line-up.

England will find it mighty tough to defend their crown minus Kevin Pietersen and are ones to swerve at 10.0 while Australia are another shocking price at 7.2.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa to win World Twenty20 @ 7.2


Best outsiders

England seemed to come from nowhere to win the gong last time out. But once the competition was underway in the West Indies, it was apparaent that they had the look and feel of champions, which was why we got on them at the Super Eight stage.

New Zealand could spring a shock. At 21.0, their recent form has not been taken into account and in Martin Guptill they have the highest runscorer in the last 12 months. Daniel Vettori, Ross Taylor and the McCullum brothers know the format and the conditions thanks to IPL.

We would like to get with the West Indies, too. Alas, punters have recognised they have a superb-looking squad. Rather like South Africa the Windies can do it all, especially now Chris Gayle has returned. But 7.6 is just too short.

As for the minnows, Bangladesh might cause an upset against Pakistan but Ireland, Afghanistan and Zimbabwe are making up the numbers.

Recommended Bet
Back-to-lay New Zealand @ 21.0


Top runscorer

Only opening batsmen need apply, historically and statistically. Guptill has a great shout here at a whopping 75.0. Mahela Jaywardene and Tillakaratne Dilshan are both overpriced at 18.0 and 20.0 respectively and look likely to form the opening combo for the home nation. Dilshan, of course, has form in this competition. Gayle is 7.4 and one of the jollies while Virender Sehwag and Gautam Gambhir will also be well-supported.

Recommended Bets:
Back M Guptill @ 75.0
Back M Jayawardene @ 18.0


Top wicket-taker

The highest four wicket-takers in the last two years are all spinners. Three of the first four top wicket-takers in Asia are spinners. So we should turn to, er, turn for this market. Saeed Ajmal tops both lists and is priced at 12.5. He also has the best strike rate (16.5) over the same study period. A no-brainer, really.

Recommended Bet
Back Saeed Ajmal top tournament bowler @ 12.5

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Arsenal v Southampton

The Gunners go into this weekend's game on the back three clean sheets and a total of seven points from three games played. Southampton, on the other hand, are pointless and have allowed their opponents more shots on target (19) than any other team this season.

At odds of 1.4 in the Match Odds market Arsenal look slightly over-priced and are worth a back. While the 2.6 available on Under 2.5 goals also looks a solid punt if Arsene Wenger's main can maintain their defensive frugality.

Aston Villa v Swansea

Aston Villa host Swansea this Saturday looking to end a run of 13 Premier League games without a win. Despite Paul Lambert's appointment in the summer The Villans have picked up where they left off last season under Alex McLeish and they have just one home league win in their last 14. A lay of the home team at odds of 2.4 looks an obvious bet.

Michu is only the fourth player since 1933 to score in each of his first three games in English football's top flight. The Spaniard is available to back at odds of 3.0 to score at any time this weekend.

Fulham v West Brom

West Brom go to Craven Cottage looking for their first win in 13 visits having not won in Hammersmith since October 1967. The Cottagers have lost only one of their last 11 Premier League games against all opposition at The Cottage and are worthy 2.1 favourites despite The Baggies' best start to a top flight season since 1978-79.

West Brom have kept only two clean sheets in their last 39 Premier League away games, while all six goals that Fulham have conceded this season have come in the first half. Back Over 1.5 first-half goals at odds of 3.0

Man Utd v Wigan

Robin van Persie has settled into his new club rather quickly, picking up where he left off last season with Arsenal to score four goals from just six shots on target for Manchester United and taking his tally to 52 goals in his last 58 Premier League games. The Dutchman, should he be declared fit, is priced at 1.6 to add to that tally this weekend.

United had won all 14 of their previous meetings with Wigan prior to the defeat at the DW stadium last April, while The Latics have failed to in eight of the last 10 league games against Sir Alex Ferguson's side.

QPR v Chelsea

Chelsea picked up fewer points in London derbies than any other team from the capital last season, but did win 6-0 when these two teams last met at Stamford Bridge at the end of last season.

The Blues have been awarded a penalty in each of their three Premier League matches this season, while no team received more red cards in the PL last season than QPR. It is 2.9 that there is a penalty taken in this match and 3.65 that a red card is shown.

Stoke v Man City

The last three Premier League meetings between Manchester City and Stoke at the Britannia Stadium have finished with a 1-1 scoreline, while Stoke have only lost one of their last 11 home games against the teams who finished in last season's top six. A fourth consecutive 1-1 can be backed at 8.0, but the lay of City at odds-on prices looks the best option.

Carlos Tevez has four goals in six Premier League games against Tony Pulis's side and is a 2.1 chance to add to that tally. Peter Crouch is 4.0 to follow up his wonder strike from last season with another goal and Michael Owen is the same price to score on debut.

Best Bet:
Lay Aston Villa to beat Swansea @ 2.4

Recommended Bets
Lay Man City @ to beat Stoke 1.78
Back Fulham to beat West Brom @ 2.1

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Sunderland, like neighbours Newcastle last season, could be surprise high achievers this season and they look capable of proving the point at home to Liverpool on Saturday. There are interesting parallels between Sunderland's form under Martin O'Neill and how Newcastle stood at this time last season. Like O'Neill now, Alan Pardew was starting his first full season as Newcastle boss having taken charge early the previous December and stabilised their results.

Both managers had achieved flashes of even better form with good results against top-six sides, pointing to further improvement with a summer of preparation and squad-building behind them. O'Neill did even better than Pardew in his first part-season, with an average of 1.42 points per game (Pardew's was 1.23). Without any improvement in that points average, Sunderland would finish this season in the top half of the table.

But the underlying form indicates Sunderland might be able to aim towards the top six. There was a big split in their form last season, which appears to have been caused by their FA Cup quarter-final exit against Everton in March. Prior to that, Sunderland had been flying under O'Neill with a Premier League points average of 1.81 per game.

Afterwards, however, Sunderland were caught in the classic trap of a mid-table side with nothing tangible to play for and they appeared to ease off, failing to win in the eight Premier League games that followed their FA Cup exit. The late-season slump dragged down their points average and a return to their previous higher level would make them dangerous opponents for any team, as they lost only five of O'Neill's first 16 Premier League games.

Having started with away draws at Arsenal and Swansea, Sunderland look just as solid this season and they have added quality in attack with the signings of Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson. On their form under O'Neill, and with the prospect of further improvement, Sunderland look big at 3.45 against Liverpool.

Liverpool's players know as well as anyone how tough Sunderland have become under O'Neill, as they lost 1-0 at the Stadium of Light shortly before the Black Cats played that crunch FA Cup tie against Everton. That victory is part of a home league record of six wins, four draws and just two defeats for O'Neill's Sunderland (the two losses coming against Manchester United and Arsenal). Liverpool may well have to play like a potential top-four side to beat Sunderland and, given their sticky start under Brendan Rodgers, they look a considerable way from that standard at the moment.

Liverpool, in fact, have lost eight out of 11 on the road in the Premier League in 2012. They won the other three but only against Wolves, Blackburn and Norwich (two of whom were relegated last season). Backing them at 2.34 against a potential top-half side looks risky.

One option is Sunderland off 0 & +0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.92, which offers insurance against Sunderland's high draw rate, but the win odds look worth chancing.

Pick of the stats

Norwich v West Ham
Norwich have kept just three clean sheets in 41 Premier League games since promotion and have won only five out of 17 when conceding at home

Aston Villa v Swansea
Villa have won only two of their 22 league games in 2012, with 10 defeats

Stoke v Manchester City
Stoke are unbeaten in five home games in league and cup against City since promotion. Four of the five have been draws

Recommended Bets
Sunderland to beat Liverpool at 3.45
West Ham off 0 on Asian handicap v Norwich
Swansea off 0 on Asian handicap v Aston Villa

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Aston Villa v Swansea
Back Aston Villa @ 2.37 (137/100)

Aston Villa picked up their first point of the season against Newcastle last time out and I'm taking them to pick up their first win on Saturday.

Paul Lambert has endured a tough start to life in the Midlands; a shoestring budget, key injuries and poor results weren't exactly what he was hoping for, but there are causes for optimism. Firstly, the fans aren't on his back yet as they were with his predecessor. Secondly, the performance at the Sports Direct Arena against Newcastle was a vast improvement, and finally, Gabby Agbonlahor has regained fitness.

Points one and two are important, but it's point three that could prove the most vital. Star striker, Darren Bent, has been far too isolated, however with Agbonlahor back in the frame, he links the midfield and attack, and the duo teamed up with decent success when they were both available last year.

Swansea on the other hand were dealt a huge blow when Neil Taylor suffered a season ending injury against Sunderland. That was compounded when Chico was sent off later in the game, meaning Laudrup's men are now two players down on their already shaky defence. Gifted goals and results so far this campaign, Saturday's trip to Birmingham could prove a reality check for the Swans.


QPR v Chelsea
Back the Draw @ 3.6 (13/5)

QPR have had a miserable start to their season and with the transfer window now shut, Mark Hughes will have to focus on matters on the pitch instead of trying to sign a new player every time they concede a goal.

Rangers looked dead and buried last year but credit to the Welshman, he did manage to turn things around and it was their home form that made the difference. Since Hughes took over, QPR have won six of their 10 league games, drawn one and lost three. Admittedly the 5-0 defeat to Swansea was a shocking result, but the players completely lost their heads tactically and that led to an exaggerated scoreline.

Chelsea top the table after three wins but I wouldn't be rushing to back them for the title. In the opening game they scored two very early goals against Wigan and then got outplayed for the most part. Against Reading they had to fight back to win 4-2, with the game changing on an offside goal. The performance versus Newcastle was probably their best, but since then, Di Matteo's men have been given a footballing lesson by Atletico Madrid.

I think Chelsea are massively under-priced here but I'm not 100% convinced about QPR either, so I think the draw looks the safe option in this one.


Reading v Tottenham
Back the Draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Reading have made an encouraging start to the season. An opening day point against Stoke was followed by a spirited performance at Stamford Bridge which probably merited a draw. After the postponement against Sunderland, the Royals will be chomping at the bit for some more Premier League action.

Tottenham have made a dreadful start to life under Andre Villas-Boas, and it's hard to tell which has been worse; their performances or their results. The much maligned Portuguese manager hasn't been helped by Daniel Levy leaving his transfer business late and then not even signing the players he wanted. Nevertheless, we can expect to see a much changed line up on Sunday as Clint Dempsey, Moussa Dembele and Emmanuel Adebayor are likely to make their first starts of the season.

I wouldn't want to be backing them at even money though and Reading are on an 11 match unbeaten run at the Madejski Stadium, so similarly to the QPR game, I think the draw is the likely value here.

Recommended Bets
Back Aston Villa to beat Swansea @ 2.37 (137/100)
Back a QPR v Chelsea draw @ 3.6 (13/5)
Back a Reading v Tottenham draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Prices are based on Betfair's Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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I've been writing this preview of the side markets for the last six men's grand-slam finals, going back to the French Open in 2011, and, when Ferrer went up a set against Djokovic in their semi-final, instead of doing the sensible thing and taking some profits on my outright bet, I instead trawled back through those finals to see how successful these side-market bets have been. Well, 23 bets have been recommended, 11 have won, and they've returned a profit of 24.26 points to recommended stakes. Here's hoping the success continues.


Most Aces
To date, head-to-head, Murray has served more on 12 occasions (86 per cent), to Djokovic's one (7 per cent), with one match ending in a tie. All this tells you that Murray should be 1.17 to serve most aces, with Djokovic at 14.0. It's fairly stunning, then, that Murray is as big as 1.60. This may be partly due to the fact that, whilst Murray might typical win the ace battle, the count is often low for both players, with very little between them. Nonetheless, there is value to be had here, and in order to have the dead-heat working for us, I'll be laying Djokovic at 2.28.


Tie Break
In a total of 34 sets they have played, Djokovic and Murray have contested six tie-breaks, or one every 5.6 sets played, making them the most-likely match up of the world's top four to play a tie-break. Assuming they play four or five sets in Monday's final, that translates to odds of 1.42 that we'll see a tie-break, and 3.40 that we won't. At around 1.70 then, "Yes" looks enormous value, and I'll be sticking a fair bit on.


Set Betting
With a head-to-head score of eight-to-six - where Djokovic holds the slight advantage - it's clear that there is very little between the two players, and if you ignore their early matches, when Djokovic, presumably, held an advantage of experience over the rookie Murray, then the Scot has tended to do quite well against the current world number two. However, it will worry supporters of Murray that, on the two occasions the pair have met in a grand slam - both times at the Australian Open - it has been Djokovic with the advantage.

I've written before about the chances of Murray breaking his grand-slam hoodoo, but one thing the statistics will fail to account for is his Olympic win. It's clear that many players now view that title as at least equally important as a grand slam win, so perhaps we need to take Murray's performance in August as evidence of a player now capable of winning when it matters.

With this in mind, I'm tending to think that this match is little more than a toss-up, and given that Murray is the bigger price of the two players, it makes sense to support the Scot in the set betting markets.

Despite how closely matched the two appear, though, they have not tended to produce especially competitive matches. Of the 46 sets they've had available to play in their matches, they've only used 34, or 74 per cent of them. Applying this to Sunday's final, we might expect to see three or four sets, but, perhaps against expectations, are unlikely to see five. Given I'm prepared to risk supporting Murray, I'll be backing him to win 3-0 (14.0) and 3-1 (8.20).

Recommendations
5pts lay Djokovic at 2.28 in Most Aces market.
7pts back Yes at 1.70 in Tie Break Played market.
2pts back Murray 3-0 at 14.0 in Set Betting market.
2pts back Murray 3-1 at 8.20 in Set Betting market.

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Moldova v England, Friday 19:45, ITV1

This Friday night, England head over to the dark side - of Europe at least - to face Moldova in the first of their World Cup 2014 qualifiers. This will be manager Roy Hodgson's debut preliminary contest since taking over the national job and, as a result, he will not be taking the challenge lightly.

The England boss is without the defensive experience of Ashley Cole, so Leighton Baines fills in at left-back. Midfielder Adam Johnson withdrew with a thigh problem, while striker Andy Carroll is sidelined following the hamstring injury picked up in his debut for West Ham at the weekend.

Match Odds

England are unbeaten in seven contests over 90 minutes since Hodgson took the reins back in May. Yet, their qualification record is equally as impressive with 14 wins from 18 matches after failing to reach Euro 2008. Since the turn of the century, England have suffered only four losses in competitive away fixtures - Ukraine (2009), Russia (2007), Croatia (2006) and Northern Ireland (2005).

Moldova, meanwhile, lost seven times during qualification for Euro 2012 and failed to win a single game in their 2010 World Cup qualifiers. At home, Fifa's 141st ranked nation have lost six of their last 10 competitive matches, only managing victories against Finland (96th) and San Marino (206th).

England have previously met Moldova twice during their 1998 World Cup qualification campaign. In September 1996, Glenn Hoddle's men were 3-0 victors in Chisinau - to mark David Beckham's first cap for England - and the Three Lions earned a facile 4-0 win a year later at Wembley.

Despite key absentees in the squad, England should deliver comfortably in the Match Odds market at 1.35, though there is far greater value to be had in the Asian handicap market where Roy Hodgson's side are 2.04 to win with a -1.5 goal disadvantage. A 0-3 Correct Score is 9.4.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

England have failed to score in just one match under the new boss - that blot coming against Italy in their European Championship quarter-final, which was eventually lost on penalties. Under his guidance, the side has kept four clean sheets and only once conceded more than a single goal.

Seven of the last 10 competitive England away fixtures have resulted in three goals or more, with at least four scored on five occasions. England have fired blanks only once in this period, netting an average of 2.4 per game. However, despite their poor record, Moldova have managed to score in six of their last ten qualifiers at home - though could not score in their four friendlies played in 2012.
Over 2.5 Goals is available at 1.95 with Over 3.5 Goals on offer at 3.4.

In the Match Odds and Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, England/Over 2.5 Goals can be taken at 2.1. An England clean sheet trades at 1.74, while Both Teams to Score can be backed at around 2.5.

First Goalscorer

Without the injured Wayne Rooney, Andy Carroll and Ashley Young, attacking duties will rest upon the diminutive shoulders of Jermain Defoe, who scored the winner in August's friendly with Italy. The Spurs frontman is 5.0 to be First Goalscorer.

Yet, with the only other forward options lying at the feet of the inexperienced Danny Welbeck and Daniel Sturridge, Hodgson may look to his midfield old guard for a supplementary goal threat.

Much has been made of the longstanding inability of captain Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard to gel on the international stage and flourish as they so often do for their clubs. However, with the fledgling Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and the erratic Theo Walcott as the only other creative options from midfield, it may pay to back Gerrard 2.5 or Lampard 3.0 To Score at any time.

Half Time

England have led at half-time in five of their last six competitive away fixtures and scored more than twice before the break in four of those. The visitors are 1.8 to be leading after 45 minutes while a 0-1 and 0-2 Half Time Score can be backed at around 3.4 and 6.4. England to Score in Both Halves may also tempt at 2.06, with England/England around 1.95 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Recommended Bets:
Back England -1.5 Asian handicap @ 2.04
Back England/Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.1
Back Frank Lampard To Score @ 3.0
Back 0-1 and 0-2 Half Time Score @ 3.4 and 6.4

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