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Aston Villa v Swansea
Back Aston Villa @ 2.37 (137/100)

Aston Villa picked up their first point of the season against Newcastle last time out and I'm taking them to pick up their first win on Saturday.

Paul Lambert has endured a tough start to life in the Midlands; a shoestring budget, key injuries and poor results weren't exactly what he was hoping for, but there are causes for optimism. Firstly, the fans aren't on his back yet as they were with his predecessor. Secondly, the performance at the Sports Direct Arena against Newcastle was a vast improvement, and finally, Gabby Agbonlahor has regained fitness.

Points one and two are important, but it's point three that could prove the most vital. Star striker, Darren Bent, has been far too isolated, however with Agbonlahor back in the frame, he links the midfield and attack, and the duo teamed up with decent success when they were both available last year.

Swansea on the other hand were dealt a huge blow when Neil Taylor suffered a season ending injury against Sunderland. That was compounded when Chico was sent off later in the game, meaning Laudrup's men are now two players down on their already shaky defence. Gifted goals and results so far this campaign, Saturday's trip to Birmingham could prove a reality check for the Swans.


QPR v Chelsea
Back the Draw @ 3.6 (13/5)

QPR have had a miserable start to their season and with the transfer window now shut, Mark Hughes will have to focus on matters on the pitch instead of trying to sign a new player every time they concede a goal.

Rangers looked dead and buried last year but credit to the Welshman, he did manage to turn things around and it was their home form that made the difference. Since Hughes took over, QPR have won six of their 10 league games, drawn one and lost three. Admittedly the 5-0 defeat to Swansea was a shocking result, but the players completely lost their heads tactically and that led to an exaggerated scoreline.

Chelsea top the table after three wins but I wouldn't be rushing to back them for the title. In the opening game they scored two very early goals against Wigan and then got outplayed for the most part. Against Reading they had to fight back to win 4-2, with the game changing on an offside goal. The performance versus Newcastle was probably their best, but since then, Di Matteo's men have been given a footballing lesson by Atletico Madrid.

I think Chelsea are massively under-priced here but I'm not 100% convinced about QPR either, so I think the draw looks the safe option in this one.


Reading v Tottenham
Back the Draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

Reading have made an encouraging start to the season. An opening day point against Stoke was followed by a spirited performance at Stamford Bridge which probably merited a draw. After the postponement against Sunderland, the Royals will be chomping at the bit for some more Premier League action.

Tottenham have made a dreadful start to life under Andre Villas-Boas, and it's hard to tell which has been worse; their performances or their results. The much maligned Portuguese manager hasn't been helped by Daniel Levy leaving his transfer business late and then not even signing the players he wanted. Nevertheless, we can expect to see a much changed line up on Sunday as Clint Dempsey, Moussa Dembele and Emmanuel Adebayor are likely to make their first starts of the season.

I wouldn't want to be backing them at even money though and Reading are on an 11 match unbeaten run at the Madejski Stadium, so similarly to the QPR game, I think the draw is the likely value here.

Recommended Bets
Back Aston Villa to beat Swansea @ 2.37 (137/100)
Back a QPR v Chelsea draw @ 3.6 (13/5)
Back a Reading v Tottenham draw @ 3.4 (12/5)

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