Betting.Betfair

Team News
Shafiul Islam is still out with a shoulder injury but his replacement Nazmul Hossain bowled brilliantly against Sri Lanka and will surely keep his place. Nazimuddin failed again and is vulnerable but Bangladesh won't want to try a new opening partnership for such a big game.

Giving the gloves to Umar Akmal allowed Pakistan to play the extra bowler against India in their last game. It wasn't enough to contain the Indian top order, but they'll probably stick with it against Bangladesh, rather than bringing in Asad Shafiq to strengthen the batting.

Venue and Conditions
It isn't quite the case that winning the toss means you win the game, but there's a clear pattern emerging at the Shere Bangla Stadium. Each of the last four games has gone to the team batting second and the evening dew is certainly making it harder for the fielding team to grip the ball. Win the toss and put the other lot in is the way to go and there's no more rain forecast to complicate matters.

Match Odds
For the first time in their history Bangladesh have managed back to back wins against two different Test playing nations, which makes reaching the final of the Asia Cup another significant step in their development, more important still than the surprise drubbing they gave to New Zealand in a one day series in 2010. Punters should forget their record of one win in 30 attempts against Pakistan. This is a team on the up.

Although Pakistan look the better team on paper, these two teams have similar strengths and weaknesses. Both have inconsistent batting line-ups; both have seam bowlers who blow hot and cold and both rely strongly on their spinners, although Bangladesh's trio of left-armers look primarily to contain whereas Saeed Ajmal, Shahid Afridi and Mohammed Hafeez are a potent wicket-taking threat.

Given that there is more depth to the Pakistan batting, you could argue that they should be slight favourites. However, we should always let the odds be the final arbiter. On what we've seen in this tournament, Bangladesh should not be nearly three times the price of their opponent. At a venue where luck at the toss can also play a big part, Bangladesh are way too high at 3.5 and should be backed accordingly.

Top Bangladesh Batsman
Whilst Bangladesh could not have got to the final without useful contributions from their lesser batsmen, when it comes to looking for the top scorer, you want to concentrate on the two reliable performers. Shakib al Hasan and Tamim Iqbal are streets ahead of their peers and at bigger odds of 5.0 I prefer Shakib.

Top Pakistan Batsman
Pakistan's middle order is quite fluid and Umar Akmal, Younis Khan and Shahid Afridi can all bat anywhere from 3 to 7. Bearing that in mind it's safest to stick with the in-form openers, Mohammed Hafeez and Nasir Jamshed, with preference for the more experienced Hafeez at 4.5

Featured Market
The six games in this tournament have seen six centuries struck and an average top score of over 90. With the weather set fair and the venue favouring batsmanship it's worth backing 'Over 82.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at 1.75 or more.

Recommended Bet
Back Bangladesh to beat Pakistan at 3.5

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With Rory McIlroy, Phil Mickelson and most recently Luke Donald laying out impressive claims over the past few weeks, time is running out for Tiger Woods to avoid heading to the season's first major with the billing of an also-ran.

When he limped out of the final round at Doral ten days ago with an achilles injury, Tiger's bid for a fifth Green Jacket looked a pipe-dream, yet the greatest player ever to pick up a golf club is surprisingly back in action already, heading the market for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational.

We punters have to put sentiment aside, coldly assessing the merit of each player's odds and with Tiger, that task requires constant reconsideration. For most of the time since scandal and injury derailed his career, all the betting value has been on the lay side. Last season he was usually all over the place, yet still started every event amongst the favourites. Then after winning his own tournament against a small field, the hype machine returned to overdrive and all the talk concerned Woods returning to his peerless best. Yet despite excellent opportunities to win the Australian Open, Abu Dhabi Championship and Pebble Beach Pro-am, the new Tiger failed to show his teeth in the heat of battle.

The new rule with Tiger was now to lay in-running and for the place markets - a strategy that has paid dividends. Indeed, I firmly expected to be laying out that argument on Woods for Augusta where, despite all the negatives, he remains a mere 8.8 to win the whole thing. How this could be considered good value compared to any of his main rivals remains beyond me, yet in response to an extremely generous quote of 9.2 this week, I feel compelled to reconsider my punting principles.

Just to clarify - I would not recommend placing a single penny on Woods for Augusta. Whatever his historic record, he hasn't won there for six years and simply doesn't deserve to be second favourite against the world's best. However this week is different for three reasons. First and foremost, unlike the Masters, he isn't up against the world's best. None of the world's top-six, and only two of the top-ten are in the Bay Hill line-up.

Second, different rules apply at Bay Hill. In his pomp, Tiger was virtually unbeatable here, winning the title no fewer than six times. Along with Firestone, Torrey Pines and St Andrews, this was one of the few courses where almost any price represented good value. Even 12 months ago, with his game in turmoil, he didn't disgrace himself in 24th place. His form this time around is vastly superior. At least he was regularly in contention before those recent final-round failures, and lets not forget that on his penultimate start, Woods hit a final round 62 at the Honda Classic to claim second. He wasn't far off contention at Doral either, before injury struck.

Finally, it's all about the price. If he's only 8.8 for Augusta, how can he be 9.2 for Bay Hill against a much weaker field? One must assume it's a reaction to the injury, but surely Tiger wouldn't be risking an outing ahead of Augusta if it were a problem. We used to mark this one down in our diary and the time has come to revive that old, winning mantra that states 'Back Tiger at Bay Hill'.

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It's undoubtedly one of the highlights of the entire year as the previous year's top six handlers shoot it out over eight races for the honour of being crowned Betfair Trainers Champion. Last year's event went right down to the wire with Charlie Lister's win in the last leg just enough for him to pip Chris Allsopp, with Mark Wallis close up in third. All three are involved again, alongside Seamus Cahill, Nick Savva and Dean Childs, who is a late replacement for Kelly Findlay.

Lister's record in the event is unprecedented, having claimed the title on five occasions since 2001, including an incredible victory at Sheffield in 2009 when he won six of the seven legs he contested and was second in the other (he had a non-runner in the remaining leg!).

Wallis is twice a previous winner, including in 2010 at Doncaster, when he got up in the last leg to deny who else, but Lister. Nick Savva has won the event three times, although not since 2000, while Seamus Cahill also tasted success in 2008.

But with major chances in at least five of the legs, Charlie Lister looks sure to take all the beating and is a maximum bet. For those looking for a more speculative wager, Dean Childs appears over-priced and rates a cheap back to lay proposition.

19:40 Leg 1 Standard 'D'
Lister can get off to the best possible start with recent recruit Mottos Blue taken to confirm the promise of his excellent trials and can make most. Droopys Loner, narrowly denied in the Arc final, should score well having sneaked into the bottom division.

20:00 Leg 2 Sprint
Former Greyhound of the Year Jimmy Lollie would bring the house down if he can win on his comeback, and it's not impossible given his good record 'fresh' after some useful trials, but Lister's Taylors Ace has also trialed in well and looks well drawn outside rails seeking Lil Risky. Mark Wallis' charge has won his last four starts, but faces a tricky trap four draw.

20:15 Leg 3 Puppies
Charlie Lister could be clear by this stage with virtually unknown youngster Farloe Tango - a close relation to Fear Zafonic and Farloe Reason - set to make a winning debut after an exceptionally fast trial last weekend. Benkaat Blue was unlucky not to finish closer in the Midland Puppy Derby final last week and is not unsuited to a trap five draw.

20:35 Leg 4 Stayers 'B'
Classy Ballymac William bounced back to form at Monmore last week, but faces a tough early battle alongside rails seeking Boherna Bridge and middle favouring Franks Four. Ballintine Molly is well regarded by her handler, but we'll take a chance on Droopys Beano, who has proved effective from trap six in the past and could relish the step up in trip.

20:50 Leg 5 Standard 'C'
Bucks Blade flew round in a trial last week and appears back to his best, and with the added bonus of trap one (where his record is five from six), can add another to the Lister tally. Pennys Viking, unraced since December, boasts a good record 'fresh' but faces a fierce early pace battle with also long time absent Freds Champ. Springbok winner Westmead Melanie needs to step up on her trial as does Dixies Air.

21:10 Leg 6 Standard 'B'
Boher Paddy, winner of the anchor leg for Lister last year, will be hard to beat judged on his defeat of Razldazl Jayfkay in arguably the race of the year so far at Wimbledon. He will need to clear Ballymac Ace, who can go well after a break, but should prove too tough. Strong running Arc third Jazz Apollo has not fared too well in the draw, but should pick up plenty of points.

21:25 Leg 7 Stayers 'A'
Lonely Boy will prove popular after a sharp four bend trial, but has suffered mixed fortunes so far this term and Freedom Cache, recently stepped up in trip, might offer better value after dipping inside the track-record in his recent trial. He will however need to avoid quick starting Mountjoy Orion, who is awkwardly drawn on his outside. Bubbly Swallow is running with some consistency.

21:45 Leg 8 Standard 'A'
Derby winner Taylors Sky could hardly have been better prepared, getting inside the 480m clock in his latest trial, and should seal another Championship win for Lister, if he's not already wrapped it up by then. Sids Dream disappointed in the Arc final, but expect a bigger effort back in trap six here. Blonde Snapper has been mopping up lesser races recently, but comes here without a previous look. Freedom Chief has been beaten only once in seven starts from trap one and can score well.

Selections:
Bucks Blade 20:50
Taylors Ace 20:00
Boher Paddy 21:10
Mottos Blue 19:40
Freedomn Cache 21:25

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Portsmouth v Birmingham, KO: Tuesday 19:45

Surely it can only be Birmingham's form before the weekend that is allowing us to back them at greater than even-money in this one? The Blues have been through a sticky patch that saw them go four without a win in the league, but they bounced back to ease past Middlesbrough on Saturday. They also know how to beat struggling teams, having won seven of their previous nine games against teams in the bottom six.

And they don't come much more 'struggling' than Pompey: in administration, eight points adrift of safety and hurtling towards the gaping trap door that leads to League One.

Manager Michael Appleton has seen four players loaned out in the last three weeks, and so it's little surprise that Portsmouth have not won in nine league games. Worse still, they have scored just twice in those nine games. The home fans at Fratton Park have not seen their side win in five attempts going back to early January. Blues look generously priced to add to their woes.

Back Birmingham @ 2.06


Crystal Palace v Barnsley, KO: Tuesday 20:00

It's unlikely, given their current 12-point cushion, that Barnsley have a great deal to worry about in terms of relegation this season; but their alarming slump in form will be of great concern. The Tykes are without a win in six and have lost five of those games, sliding from 14th to 17th in less than a month. They have lost all of their last five away games and have not scored in the last four on the road. Therefore, it's reasonable to expect they are going to struggle to trouble the division's second best home defensive record.

For a mid-table side, Palace are exceptionally miserly at Selhurst Park, conceding 10 goals in 17 games. The reason they aren't doing better on the back of that record is that the Eagles don't score many at home either: just 18 all season. Indeed, Palace home games have produced fewer goals this season than anyone else in the division. More than 75% of Palace's home games have been winners in the Under 2.5 Goals market, and against a side struggling to find the net like Barnsley, I think that will be the case again.

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.72


Cardiff v Coventry, KO: Wednesday 19:45

It's easy to suggest the Carling Cup final as a possible distraction, but something has apparently pulled the rug from under Cardiff's promotion push - and if they don't sort it out soon, then they'll miss out on even the play-offs. Malky Mackay's side have won just one of their last six, and the goalless draw with Burnley on Sunday means the Bluebirds have failed to score in each of their last three home games.

Yet with that old adage that class is permanent while form is temporary in mind, you have to fancy them to beat Coventry. If they don't, then perhaps they don't deserve to be in the end-of-season shake-up.

Coventry's draw at Watford on Saturday was only their fourth away point of the season, and was also their first clean sheet on the road. But the fact the Sky Blues have struggled to stop the steady flow of goals on their travels surely opens the door for Cardiff - especially when you consider they have won all six of their home games against teams 17th or lower and scored 17 goals in the process. Coventry have drawn a blank in 11 of their 18 away games, so the suggestion is to back the home side to triumph and keep a clean sheet.

Back Cardiff Win to Nil @ 2.2

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With the first major of the year always played on the same course there's plenty of history and statistics to go through in an attempt to find the 2012 winner.

Brits have a poor recent record. Aussies even more so.
In an era when the UK boasts the world's top-three ranked players, following this rule defies both the market and basic logic. Nevertheless, Augusta has not been a happy hunting ground recently for Brits, with none of our boys winning since Nick Faldo in 1996. Still, at least our stats compare very favourably to Australia, who have never provided a Masters champion.

Thirty-somethings with plenty of Augusta experience tend to fare best
At 26, Charl Schwartzel rather bucked this trend last year but 11 of the last 20 champions were in their 30s and only Tiger Woods won at a younger age than Schwartzel. A second stat, therefore, that counts against 22 year-old, British, tournament favourite Rory McIlroy and it doesn't bode well for third favourite Phil Mickelson either, who will be bidding to become the first over-40 to win since Mark O'Meara in 1998. The average age during the last 20 years was 32.55.

Debutant winners very rare, champions tend to have plenty of Augusta experience
Champions over the last 20 years had already played an average 8.65 Masters, with only four making fewer than six appearances. Once again Schwartzel and Woods bucked this trend by winning on their second attempt. Unsurprisingly on a layout where course knowledge offers a huge advantage, no debutant has won since 1979. Keegan Bradley backers beware!

Favour multiple winners and proven major champions
Eleven of the last 20 winners were already major champions, of whom nine were winning at least their second Masters title. Even the unlikeliest champions were multiple winners on the European or PGA tours, besides one exception. Zach Johnson had only won once on the PGA Tour, although he did have a couple more to his name on the competitive Nationwide Tour. Otherwise, the least prolific was Angel Cabrera, who had only four previous titles to his name although the Argentinian was hardly short of credentials, having already won a US Open. Of the players currently trading below 100.0, this trend counts against Bradley, Jason Day, Webb Simpson and Rickie Fowler.

Shortlist
If sticking strictly to the above four trends, only five players currently trading below 100.0 meet all the criteria. They are Tiger Woods, Nick Watney, Sergio Garcia, Bubba Watson and Brandt Snedeker. All are multiple winners, in their thirties, making at least their fourth appearance at Augusta. Many more would qualify if considering players currently trading in triple-figures and given that four of the last five Masters winners began the week at well above 100.0, looking for outsiders might well be the best plan.

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After a period of panic, Kauto Star has been cleared to challenge for a third Gold Cup. The Betfair Contrarian is confident that the 12-year-old Cheltenham Festival legend will delight all those excitedly waving his trademark green, gold and purple scarves on Friday...

The holder rarely retains
This year's favourite Long Run established himself as the latest elite chaser by beating Denman and Kauto Star to the Gold Cup last March, however his progress has surprisingly stalled since, with just one victory in three outings and that an unconvincing success by half-a-length in a Grade 2 race. Also counting against the market leader is that even the mighty Kauto Star and Denman never managed to finish first two years in a row, with the dominant Best Mate (2002, 2003 and 2004) the only triumphant defending champion in the last 40 years.

Kauto Star has beaten the favourite twice
The Kauto Star comeback has been the sporting story of the decade so far. Critics who said that the two-time winner was done and that last year's third-place Gold Cup finish was his last hurrah have been silenced by a fourth Betfair Chase win and fifth King George VI Chase title. Those momentum shifters were all the more remarkable for having been achieved at the expense of the horse who was supposed to have hurried his retirement, Long Run. So having defeated his chief rival in their last two showdowns, should he really be as long as 4.5 to complete a hat-trick?

Age is an asset when in the right hands
The main question mark hanging over Kauto Star is that at 12, he is deemed too old to land the Gold Cup, but his recent Betfair Chase and King George VI Chase wins showed similar disregard for age trends. He is a once-in-a-lifetime horse who is revered because he defies the usual limits, as he did in 2009 to become the first to regain the Gold Cup after being dethroned, and with his current form when confronted by accusations of being past it. In Paul Nicholls, he has a trainer who knows both how to play the long game, prioritising sustained success over immediate glory and how to work to the strength of his charges. Look no further than stablemate See More Business for proof of Nicholls' ability to keep his horses winning until 'old' age, the 1999 Gold Cup champion victorious at the age of 13.

There's no more Denman to worry about
In each of the last four years, the task of prevailing has been made harder for Kauto Star by fighting stablemate Denman, who always applied huge pressure by setting a menacing pace. This time, on account of Denman's retirement in December, Kauto Star has a chance to assume the role of frontrunner and force Long Run to do the pursuing, a situation which could prompt jumping errors from the 2011 winner.

It's not a year for backing the favourite
Though the last 11 champions have all emerged from the top three in the betting - Burton Port is a fairly distant third this year at 8.8, having finished second in his last two races - the pattern across the last seven editions hints that the favourite won't deliver on this occasion. From 2005 onwards, after the Best Mate reign, the winner has alternated between being the favourite in odd-numbered years (Kicking King in 2005, Kauto Star in 2007 and 2009 and Long Run 12 months ago) and either second or third in line in even ones (War of Attrition in 2006, Denman in 2008 and Imperial Commander in 2010).

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MK Dons v Exeter

The big shock of Tuesday's round of fixtures was the MK Dons defeat at the hands of lowly Yeovil, with the Buckinghamshire faithful voicing their disappointment at the result. The performance was actually acceptable, with numerous chances created. However, the MK Dons have shown their Achilles heel this season to be their profligacy in front of goal, which was all to apparent this week.

The excellent Stephen Gleeson was sent-off against the Glovers, meaning their most influential midfielder is suspended for this Saturday. Yeovil sat very deep and got all 10 men behind the ball, it might be the same scenario here, so patience is the key for backers of the hosts at a short price.

I am frustrated by the Dons, as they have top players and should be in the top two. They can be brilliant on occasions and play some sublime football, but they have not converted their chances on too many occasions this season.

Exeter lined up 4-3-3 at Brentford in midweek, and were easily beaten 2-0. It was a dismal performance for which manager Paul Tisdale has apologised for. I am not sure the same formation will be a success at the Stadium MK, as the Grecians struggle to get hold of games through poor passing. The hosts should have plenty of the ball and control this.

The most pressing concern however is less tactical, put simply, Exeter cannot score away from home. Just four in nine games is a meagre return (and two of those were against Chesterfield). They'll try and stay in this and frustrate, so it might be worth to throw an In-Play back of the hosts at around 1.8.

Back MK Dons 1-0 @ 7.4 & 2-0 @ 8.2 Correct Scores
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.04


Huddersfield v Rochdale

This encounter has a very similar feel to the above, with Huddersfield chasing promotion and Rochdale not. Town are unbeaten under new manager Simon Grayson, with two wins and two draws. The returns should be four victories, considering they threw away 2-0 and 3-0 leads against Bury and Stevenage, only to draw both.

Grayson highlighted the need to stamp out matches with too many goals and spoke of a desire to win games 1-0, which was exactly the case on Tuesday against Hartlepool. True, the north east side don't score many, but the Terriers dominated possession. Town lined up 4-1-4-1, but were more dangerous late in the game in switching to a more conventional front two.

The hosts have the second best home defence in the division, and have the marquee forward in Jordan Rhodes who has netted a remarkable 30 times this season.

Rochdale are bottom and have scored just 12 times away all season, with new manager John Coleman sure to line up defensively. Dale's last three away games have all been under 2.5 goals, which is where the strongest angle lies for this.

Back Huddersfield 1-0 @ 7.2 and 2-0 @ 8.0 Correct Scores
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.0


Walsall v Hartlepool

Plucky Walsall are unbeaten in five and have lost just twice in their last 10 matches, highlighting what a good job manager Dean Smith is doing. The Saddlers pulled themselves out of the drop zone in midweek with an astonishing 3-2 home win over promotion chasing Sheffield United. The players looked exhausted following that victory, with their youthful side excelling during an end-to-end game.

Prior, a late goal at Orient earned themselves perhaps a lucky point on Saturday. But Walsall have played with a bit of confidence of late and look a hard outfit to beat, and bar the Tuesday game, are a side that don't score many. I would however be slightly worried of the fatigue element from midweek.

Hartlepool meanwhile are slow and steady under Neale Cooper - who faces problems with a mounting injury list heading into this weekend. Pool defended well in defeat at Huddersfield, and really went for it in the closing stages switching to a front two. But they are another team that find goals away hard to come by, which again looks made for a perfect under 2.5 goals game.

Back 0-0 @ 10.0 & 1-1 @ 7.4 Correct Scores
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.74

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Reading v Leicester

Let's jump on the Reading train! The Royals are flying - how else do you describe seven successive league wins with only one goal conceded?

Suddenly, what appeared a two-team love-in for automatic promotion between Southampton and West Ham has evolved into a three-way tussle. Reading are only two points behind the leading pair now and, as a club that has traditionally ended the season well, they must surely be seen as capable of avoiding the need of a risk of last season's Play Off agony and going straight up.

Brian McDermott's side have actually won 12 of their last 14 league games and at the Madejski their recent record is eight wins out of nine: they have conceded just one goal in their last 12 hours of league football at home. Leicester really are inconsistent: back-to-back wins preceded a defeat to struggling Bristol City in midweek. The Foxes have lost three of their last four on the road and Reading are available to back at a bigger price than I expected.

Back Reading @ 2.16


Peterborough v Blackpool

While no-one would want to be seen publicly dancing on the grave of another club, there must have been a few sighs of relief at Peterborough when Portsmouth were deducted 10 points for going into administration. There is generally one team that plummets each season and gets sucked into relegation problems, and with only one league win in 11 games since Boxing Day, Posh would have been prime contenders. However, they seem to have banked enough points now Pompey have sunk to the basement - although their alarming slide from 9th on Guy Fawkes Night to 18th now shows the size of their problems.

It was always going to be likely that a side that scores and concedes so freely might come unstuck, and so it has proved. Peterborough home games have delivered an average of 3.69 goals each, divided almost equally between hosts and visitors. Over 2.5 Goals would have paid out 75% of the time, including in each of the last four at London Road.

So, the team with the highest-scoring home games - hosting the team with the highest-scoring away games. Blackpool's trips away have averaged 3.39 goals each, with 'Overs' a winning bet 78% of the time. Each of Blackpool's last eight away league games would have been winners in this market: given they are visiting Posh, it has to be worth a punt.

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.76


Southampton v Barnsley

Southampton seem to have emerged from their stumbling run of a few weeks ago. The Saints lost four of eight in the league either side of Christmas, and how they dealt with that was always going to decide if their incredible attempt to achieve back-to-back promotions would succeed. So an unbeaten eight-game run suggests Nigel Adkins' men have knuckled down and have the ability to complete the job they started so impressively back in August.

Barnsley, conversely, have lost five of their last seven but look very unlikely to get themselves into any trouble given they are still 14 points clear of the bottom three. However, their recent away form indicates they will struggle to offer much resistance at St Mary's: they have lost six of their last seven on the road. A home win is a skinny price though - but if you look deeper and see that the Tykes have not even scored in their last three away games, then you can get a bigger price about Saints winning without conceding, something they have already done eight times at home this term.

Back Southampton Win to Nil @ 2.1

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Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao, Thursday 20:05, Five

Manchester United fans must wonder why they were so sceptical about the Europa League. After last month's visit to Amsterdam, there is now a trip to Bilbao - albeit a costly one - to look forward to, as well as a chance to check out a team who have set tongues wagging across Europe this season.

Athletic Bilbao are led by one of South America's most lauded coaches, Argentine tactical innovator and attractive football advocate Marcelo Bielsa, and after a troubling start, the results have been fairly spectacular.

The Basque club topped a Europa League group featuring big-spending Paris St-Germain, will meet Barcelona in the Copa del Rey Final and sit fifth in La Liga, their momentum causing them to be rated 2.02 frontrunners in the wide-open race for the final Champions League place.

With Spain internationals Andoni Iraola, Javi Martinez, Iker Muniain and Fernando Llorente at their disposal and all seemingly buying into Bielsa's elaborate ideas, the future appears promising for the well-liked Lions, however they are 7.6 outsiders for this test.

They head to England on a high after completing a derby double over Real Sociedad at San Mames - one of the continent's most atmospheric stadiums - at the weekend, but it is their recent away form that is evidently under closer scrutiny ahead of this round-of-16 clash.

Athletic are winless in three on the road, losing two of those, since beating third-tier Mirandes in their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg, and have lost their last two Europa League games overseas. They have taken just one point from a possible nine away to top-six rivals domestically too.

There are question marks over Manchester United after costly draws at home to Basel and Benfica in the Champions League were followed by defeat to Ajax in their first Europa League tie as hosts, yet the above stats seem to vindicate their status as favourites, even if odds of 1.53 look a touch short.

Over/under 2.5 goals

The standout Opta insight into this fixture is that, excluding games on neutral territory, Manchester United's last eight matches against Spanish sides in Europe have produced a total of only four goals.

Odds of 1.78 on over 2.5 suggest that trend is unlikely to continue though and the evidence of the season so far support that price. Six of the Red Devils' last seven home European encounters have featured three goals or more, as have three of Athletic's four on their travels in this competition.

Both teams to score

This writer has a hunch that Bielsa's boys will upset the odds and qualify at 3.35, but even if that suspicion proves misguided, there is a strong case for backing both teams to score here at 1.87.

Athletic have netted nine times in their last five away outings despite winning less than half of those, conceding the same number, while Manchester United have leaked in seven of their last eight at Old Trafford in continental action, shipping seven in the last four.

A 2-1 triumph for Sir Alex Ferguson's side appears the most appealing correct score option at 9.4, having been the end result in three of their last five games. Two of the Spaniards' last three away fixtures have finished that way, with it also the result in half of their six defeats as visitors.

Best Bet: Both teams to score @ 1.87
Other Recommended Bet: Manchester United to win 2-1 @ 9.4

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Sporting Lisbon v Manchester City, Thursday 18:00, ITV4.


Having triumphed against Porto in the previous round, Manchester City now return to Portugal to take on Sporting Lisbon.

In theory, this should be a much simpler task for Roberto Mancini's side. While Porto are top of the Portuguese League and now just 1.38 to retain their title after a crucial win at Benfica last Friday, Sporting are 14 points adrift after yet another underwhelming season.

So underwhelming, in fact, that their current boss Ricardo Sa Pinto, a former captain of the club, has been in charge for less than a month after the departure of Domingos Pacienca, who reached the final of this competition last year with Braga. However, since Sa Pinto's arrival, relatively little has changed in terms of team selection.

One of the features of Sporting's play is to push the full-backs, Emiliano Insua and Joao Pereira (though Santiago Arias has got a couple of chances since Sa Pinto took charge) very high up the pitch. Cover, of sorts, is provided by Daniel Carriço sitting just ahead of the back four - as a converted centre-back, he rarely moves from his position and allows the full-backs to push on.

The actual centre-backs are slow, however. First choices are Oguchi Onyewu, who can be dragged out of position easily and often doesn't have the capacity to recover, while Anderson Polga is now 33 and was never quick. Onyewu is unavailable, though, and likely replacement Xandao is a little more mobile, which may help Sporting.

This will probably be an area Roberto Mancini looks to exploit, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Mario Balotelli starting upfront rather than Edin Dzeko, despite the Bosnian being rested for the weekend win over Bolton. That's the way City played at Porto, and with Balotelli's pace and mobility in the channels, I think he'll be a good bet to score first at around 7.5 if he starts.

In midfield, Sporting are likely to be without energetic midfielder Elias and the conservative Fabian Rinaudo, so Dutchman Stijn Schaars will get through a lot of running, especially if enigmatic playmaker Mati Fernandez is handed a rare start - he's a temperamental but highly talented classic South American number ten.

In this zone, Mancini will want to be solid and combative. Yaya Toure is suspended, so it looks like Nigel de Jong will sit and Gareth Barry will stay to his left, and leave the attacking to the wide players. Mancini wants a decent amount of possession in continental competition, and David Silva and Samir Nasri has been his favoured combination in in Europe so far - those two have both started in seven of City's eight Europa League games.

Alternatively, one could move into a central playmaking role and Adam Johnson or James Milner could come in on the flank, but Sergio Aguero behind Balotelli is a good combination worth using here.

Upfront, Sporting are without Dutch wonderkid Ricky van Wolfswinkel, and therefore will play Sebastian Ribas upfront. He's a new arrival and hasn't scored for 18 months, so shouldn't be a huge threat.

The danger will come from wide - to a certain extent on the Sporting right, where Marat Izmailov will have a good battle with Gael Clichy, but the real concern for City is in their right-back zone. Not only will they be up against tricky Spanish winger Diego Capel, they're also without both Micah Richards and Pablo Zabaleta due to injury. Kolo Toure is the natural option there, though Milner could also do a job.

Either way, it might be worth looking out for City's right-back in the bookings market - Capel isn't the trickest, but he loves to knock the ball past defenders and use his pace to get in behind.

Overall, though, City are the deserved favourites for this game. I can imagine them going into an early lead and being content with it, keeping possession to kill the game in the second half. Therefore, I'm going to back City to be ahead at both half time and full time, at 3.0.

Recommended bets:
Back Balotelli to score first at 7.5
Back Man City / Man City in Half Time / Full Time at 3.0

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