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Big Race

15:05 John Smith's Melling Chase

Stats

It's always nice to try and eliminate the favourite - given you can either lay it or back other runners at bigger prices. However, in this race, the stats point towards Albertas Run recording a follow-up success. Market leaders fare well here as do horses attempting repeat victories (Voy Por Ustedes the latest in 2008 and 2009). The outright market leader has won five of the last ten runnings. Given that Albertas Run arrives at Aintree in very similar form to last year, with a success in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, it's very hard to make a case against him on the stats.

The race is normally won by a younger horse, though Moscow Flyer won as an eleven-year-old (and a ten-year-old for that matter). We should get a place price big enough to just about cover the win so a straight forward win and place for the same stake might be an option worth exploring, given we get the security of the additional two places.

Contender: Albertas Run (win and place)


Extra Race

17:25 John Smith's Mares' Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race

Stats

The bumper isn't immune to throwing up a big priced winner with two 25/1+ winners in the last three runnings. Irish trained runners haven't dominated this race nearly as much as the Cheltenham Festival version and unbeaten runners have done well - winning three of the last four races. That's enough to filter the 20 strong field to just two which we'll play for equal win stakes.

Contenders: Glorious Feeling, Keyaza

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