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henryluca
07 Oct 15 04:15
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Date Joined: 27 May 10
| Topic/replies: 10,720 | Blogger: henryluca's blog
7 October 2015 --first acceptances for the $6 million race were taken on Tuesday.

1.    Protectionist allocated the top weight.

2.    15 overseas-trained horses were included in the first acceptances.


3.    Japanese stayers Fame Game and Hokko Brave were the first international horses to arrive at the Werribee International Horse Centre and they both remain on track to contest the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m) on October 17 and the Group 1 Melbourne Cup (3200m).

4.    Red Cadeaux has finished second in the Melbourne Cup on three occasions and he is set to go around ‘in the race that stops a nation’ for the fifth year in a row, while he will be joined by stablemate Trip To Paris.

5.    The Coolmore team of Aidan O’Brien-Order Of St George, Bondi Beach and Kingfisher

6.    Other internationally-trained horses that have been included in the 2015 Melbourne Cup first acceptances are Big Orange, Elhaame, May Dynamite, Quest For More, Secret Number, Sky Hunter and Snow Sky

7.    Chris Waller- Preferment and staying mare Let’s Make A deal

8.    Other locals- Complacent, --Dandino,-- Hartnell, ---Hauraki,-- Mongolian Khan----, Our Ivanhowe, ---Prince Of Penzance, ---Protectionist, ---Rising Romance, ---Royal Descent, The United States ---and Who Shot Thebarman

Melbourne Cup market  (7 October 2015)
$8 Fame Game
$9 Order Of St George
$12 Preferment
$14 Max Dynamite, Who Shot Thebarman
$16 Dandino
$18 Hokko Brave, Mongolian Khan, Our Ivanhowe, Trip To Paris
$21 Big Orange, Bondi Beach, Gust Of Wind, Hartnell, Hauraki, Kingfisher, Set Square, Snow Sky

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Replies: 165
By:
henryluca
When: 07 Oct 15 08:48
The Caulfield Cup is still more than a week away but after having his first feel of Japanese raider Hokko Brave at Werribee quarantine centre on Tuesday morning, Craig Williams is confident he is on a horse capable of winning both the Caulfield and Melbourne cups.
By:
J.R.Hartley
When: 07 Oct 15 15:06
'Craig Williams is confident he is on a horse capable of winning both the Caulfield and Melbourne cups'.....LaughLaughLaugh....LaughLaughLaugh...Craig Williams LaughLaughLaugh.....The Craig Williams....LaughLaughLaugh....funniest thing I've read in a long time.
By:
henryluca
When: 07 Oct 15 22:31
Weights of past winners

Year    Winner    Weight (Kg)

2014    PROTECTIONIST    56.5

2013    FIORENTE    55

2012    GREEN MOON    53.5

2011    DUNADEN    54.5

2010    AMERICAIN    54.5

2009    SHOCKING    51

2008    VIEWED    53

2007    EFFICIENT    54.5

2006    DELTA BLUES    56
By:
J.R.Hartley
When: 07 Oct 15 22:44
Right so were looking for horse that is carrying 50 odd kilos then....shouldn't be too difficult.
By:
henryluca
When: 07 Oct 15 23:23
The horse with the most VOWELS.....in its name Happy
By:
VeryLTU
When: 08 Oct 15 00:10
very impressed with preferment in the turnbull, unusual horse imo..... but a tad too immature for the big one, maybe the caulfield race.
By:
spyvspy27
When: 08 Oct 15 02:14
J.R.Hartley 07 Oct 15 22:44 Joined: 05 Aug 11 | Topic/replies: 2,002 | Blogger: J.R.Hartley's blog
Right so were looking for horse that is carrying 50 odd kilos then....shouldn't be too difficult.


You make me LaughLaughLaugh JR


VLTU Don't be surprised if there is a big Gust Of Wind on cup day
By:
earlycrow
When: 08 Oct 15 02:52
Gust of Wind ROLFROLFROLF, Fair Game looks a deadset moral
By:
VeryLTU
When: 08 Oct 15 03:26
FFS they've done it AGAIN.......... pattern committee **** up the Schillaci STakes..... now goes over 1100m  DevilDevilDevilDevil idiots must sit around on their thousand a day drinking twenty cups of cappa da chino and then try to think ... dh's
By:
VeryLTU
When: 08 Oct 15 03:28
ps judy...... saw the schillaci and expressed large gust of wind myself Crazy...... think it might be a tad immature as well ???
By:
Lets Elope
When: 08 Oct 15 04:58
The japs will have to be very good to beat preferment in the Melbourne cup  as he's airborne currently and still has room for improvement left in jim, he's a far mature horse now and wasn't entitled to win the Turnbull on the weekend after getting held  shuffled back and then held up  and only getting out when he did. I'm glad he did though, I thought he had to be  favourite as his run in Sydney at his previous start was monstrous but thought I must have read it wrong when they bet $16 bucks and I  stupidly waited until he came into 13 bucks before finally betting. Going to take a very good horse to beat him in the Melbourne Cup if he maintains his form and he's still looks to have further improvement yet.
By:
Lets Elope
When: 08 Oct 15 05:00
It's potentially looming as a very big carnival for Waller as he looks to have a strangehold on the Cox Plate as well with Winx and Kermadec.
By:
VeryLTU
When: 08 Oct 15 06:36
the physicist in me is tapping away lets....... "things change" "things change" test it and you destroy it..... ten years ago i would've started smashing the horse for the cup before it even hit the turnbull line...... but things change.
By:
henryluca
When: 08 Oct 15 09:23
Facts to keep an eye on:

5 from past 5 winners ----handicapped  less  56.5kg

5 from past 5 winners have had a lead up run of 2000m or more

4 from past 5 winners----- 6yo Horse

4 from past 5 winners drawn Barrier 10 or wider

4 from past 5 winners have had 4 or more vowels in their name

4 from past 5 winners have had more than 8 letters in their name
By:
henryluca
When: 08 Oct 15 09:24
Correction:---

4 from past 5 winners have had 8 or more  letters in their name
By:
spyvspy27
When: 08 Oct 15 09:32
GOW tad immature? She is a lot more mature than when she blew them away in the Oaks, to me she has 3200m written all over her.
By:
VeryLTU
When: 08 Oct 15 11:30
i think things have changed and would be shocked if a 4 yo mare won it.
By:
Lets Elope
When: 08 Oct 15 13:23
You can make of stats what ever you like, each year is different, each year horses are individuals and don't give a damn about past stats. Current form  and capabilities are the only stat that matters.
By:
henryluca
When: 10 Oct 15 00:08
Current form  and capabilities are the only stat that matters

Wrong wrong wrong

OMG ...dont you see the number of horses with "current form and capabilities" being blown away by horses with no form but with carefully structured preparation for its target race.... and horses with form but not properly prepared for its target race......

Bookmakers for time immemorial have loved that mug punter mentality.....

Current form just a part of understanding a much wider picture...(Kermadec last preparation classic example when peaked for the Doncaster 2015  despite many punters  hoping on its band wagon 2 starts prior ) CrazyWink



GL
By:
henryluca
When: 10 Oct 15 00:12
Nothing like a good little head noogie to start a Saturday morning HappyWink
By:
megsy
When: 10 Oct 15 01:57
4 and 5 year olds share the most melb cup wins at 43 each
By:
earlycrow
When: 10 Oct 15 12:01
While I respect everyone's right to have an opinion, I do find it funny that others mention other horses after I've declared the winner
By:
VeryLTU
When: 10 Oct 15 23:38
absolutely coorrect megsy...... but can you ever see a 3 year old winning it pro 2000 ??..... same reasoning now applies to the four year olds imo, it will take a very unusual 4yo (read freakish) to win it imo... things change and you only have to look at all the group results from a mile and longer so far this year, in melb. at least, they are all fully matured horses mainly 6 year olds and 8 year olds ffs. Preferment was the outlier imo, and, lets hope an outlier CAN get the money.
By:
Lets Elope
When: 11 Oct 15 05:35
Seriously in my opinion I think some of you guys need to examine the way you watch videos if you think preferment hasn't take the next step this time in. The price it went around in the Turnbull was mindboggling given the massive effort at its previous start and he was only going to strip fitter.
By:
spyvspy27
When: 11 Oct 15 09:17
1st 4yo mare I have thought is a dead set 3200m horse since the great Makybe Diva
By:
henryluca
When: 11 Oct 15 09:58
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has confirmed that talented stayer Order Of St George will not contest 2015 Melbourne Cup that will be held at Flemington on November 3.

Order Of St George entered the quarantine facility in Ireland last week along with fellow Melbourne Cup hopefuls Bondi Beach and Kingfisher, but Order Of St George will remain in Ireland due to concerns about a potential firm track at Flemington.
By:
Thebas
When: 11 Oct 15 21:21
well if the tracks too wet .. aiden scratches them

if its too fast .. aiden scratches them

the porridge has to be "just right" ... for aiden to race a ... racehorse

hang on .. of course aiden's aren't racehorses .. its big business .. they are all potential stallions .. and we wouldn't want to spoil their visual race records

(maybe he is smart after all Wink)
By:
J.R.Hartley
When: 11 Oct 15 21:42
What a professional he is....no stone unturned.....no detail too small.....Cool
By:
BJT
When: 12 Oct 15 11:28
He wouldn't even know what ground suits his horses.  He has it averaged out to a one size fits all, just like his training regime...  Works for some, doesn't work for others. 
He has no idea how to train a horse, just an idea on how to train horses...
Helps when you have a never ending carousel of billions of dollars worth getting around your stable.
By:
J.R.Hartley
When: 12 Oct 15 12:39
Laugh you are quite amusing sometimes Bluffer.......can you explain what you know about Aiden's training regime please....Crazy
By:
BJT
When: 12 Oct 15 13:27
Doesn't take a genius to see he trains them all the same.  And why not?  He has enough that if they don't thrive on the one size fits all, to move them on and get more in to find some that do.... 

Kind of like funnel, with gold flakes constantly falling through, every now and again a nugget will get stuck and kept.....

Glad you find me amusing Puffenstuff....  If I am your idea of comedy, the Encyclopedia Britannica will have you in fcuking stitches for months on end.....
By:
J.R.Hartley
When: 12 Oct 15 17:37
So you've actually no idea at all then?..Grin
By:
megsy
When: 12 Oct 15 23:07
obrien will probably have only the one runner, he will use it as the pacemaker for the rest of his team Wink

still believe the japanese breed the best stayers in the world, but in saying that, europe trainers have brought out some excellent types this year.
By:
henryluca
When: 13 Oct 15 23:08
Champion Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins made a quick trip to Werribee on Tuesday to check on his Melbourne Cup aspirant Max Dynamite then headed to Tullamarine airport for the trip home, happy the horse is on target for his assignment in three weeks.

"I'm very happy with him and nearly wish that the race was this week," Mullins said.

"He looks very straight to me, so I just want to keep him like that until the race."

Like Mullins' last Melbourne Cup runner Simenon, who finished fourth behind Fiorente two years ago, Max Dynamite has raced over jumps with limited success. But the maturity he has gained since joining the Irishman has helped him fulfil his potential on the flat.

Max Dynamite was purchased by Mullins as a jumping prospect after an early career in France that saw him competing in high-class races, including finishing eighth in the 2013 French Derby.
Mullins gave the now six-year-old a year off after buying him and while he has won only one of seven jumps starts, the trainer believes the extra time he has had to mature is now starting to pay dividends on the flat.
"He was running in group 1 races on the flat and probably wasn't up to that at that stage of his career.
"I think his age means he would be up to it now.
"I don't  think we ran him for 13 months and sometimes horses need that if they have had a busy time on the flat to recover to go jumping and it just worked out that he has had that.
"We could see what he could do over jumps but his jumping technique wasn't good enough."

His jumping technique might not have been up to scratch, but after running second in a hurdle at Galway, Max Dynamite ridden by Frankie Dettori came out and gave his rivals a spanking in the group 2 Lonsdale Cup (3300 metres) at York in August, indicating to Mullins that he was a serious Melbourne Cup prospect.
"His run in the Northumberland Plate [three runs ago] where he ran second to Quest For More, told me what I wanted to know and he confirmed that in the Lonsdale Cup."

While a "failed jumper" might not initially stand out as a winning Melbourne Cup chance, Max Dynamite is trying to following in the hoof prints of the first international cup winner Vintage Crop and Mullins made it clear that the cost of coming to Australia meant he was not just here for the party.

"It's not only a lot of work, it's a lot of money to come out here.

"I think people probably don't appreciate that to bring out a horse from Ireland or Europe costs an arm and a leg.

"Granted you get well paid if you finish in the money, but you have to finish in the first four to make it worth your while."
By:
VeryLTU
When: 14 Oct 15 11:39
you better be right judge...... had a nibble at very nice odds..... are you screwi...err making a bet with someone about some horse not making the final field ??
By:
henryluca
When: 14 Oct 15 11:47
Herbert Power Stakes winner Amralah is virtually assured of a Melbourne Cup start, receiving a two kilogram penalty for his Group Two win.

The Lloyd Williams-owned horse now has 53.5kg in the Cup and is 27th on the order of entry for the 24-horse field.

Racing Victoria executive general manager - racing, Greg Carpenter, said he was impressed by the strength of Amralah's win in Saturday's Herbert Power.

"Since the weights were released for the Melbourne Cup Amralah has won the Listed Tokyo City Cup in Adelaide and was enormously impressive winning the Group Three Herbert Power Stakes on Saturday after knuckling at the start and circling the field mid-race to score by three lengths," Carpenter said.

"I was most impressed by the strength of his win in the Herbert Power and have elected to penalise him 2kg in the Melbourne Cup which is the same penalty afforded to last year's Herbert Power winner Big Memory and the 2005 winner Leica Falcon."

The last horse to complete the Herbert Power-Melbourne Cup double in the same year was Rogan Josh in 1999.
By:
VeryLTU
When: 16 Oct 15 00:34
my theory explodes again,, just checked the tenno sho, 3200 with anabolics banned in and out for at least 25 yrs, and .... yep, 4 and 5 year olds dominate with a whopping 22 of the last 25 winners being that age. wtf is going on in melb. this spring ??
By:
megsy
When: 17 Oct 15 02:40
i hate to say it, but i think i seen the melb cup winner and of all people its trained by....aiden obrien Crazy well least we can claim the owner is australian (lloyd williams) the jocky is australian ( d oliver) and its named after an australian beach ( bondi beach)

only a 3 yr old but sure is tough. maybe suited to australian racing. after being serverly interfered last start was beaten a whisker and won it on protest only o lose it in a court of law. funny ruling over in the UK. you get a chance take a look at the video.
By:
megsy
When: 17 Oct 15 02:41
but i forgot to add...i still think the japanese are the best stayers in the world and it wouldnt suprise me if they one either or both caulfield, melbourne cups
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