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AFL Finals Week 1
AFL Finals Week 1
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In my mind Cats are now 2nd best team left in it.....
I aint got the balls to lay em even at $8.00 however if they get over Freo in ok fashion they cop Swans or Crows interstate. Now teams even reaching a prelim. from an elimation final is now close to 2 from 50 since the current final 8 system. Reckon Cats will start somewhere between $ 1.60 and $1.80 v Swans or Crows interstate..... thats where I#ll lay them. |
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AD,
It isn't really about actual chances. It's really about the maths for me. You know that's how I think anyway. I have never made a secret of it. Can't see the Cats being any value at 8. Loggy has gone on record as agreeing with me on that. Easy solution for me...lay sh!t out of the 8s and back Geelong in the match odds as a 4 week parlay. |
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I understand that, but I think you may be overestimating the price Geelong will be in those 4 games. The market will be petrified to lay them if they keep rolling, I doubt you will be backing them at better than 8's over the 4 weeks. In fact I make them very close to 8's for the 4 games. They won't bet you much better than evens if they get to the Hawks
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We can agree to disagree, but if they get to the Hawks I am more than happy to lay them at 2.00 anyway.
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You know what I think of the Hawks, they will be a sensational price should that match occur. Remember Geelong will have won 2 finals by then and can you imagine the buzz around them by that point. I would say they would start 2.2, they would be 1.8 against either Adelaide or Sydney away, and if they dusted those games off they would be 1.6 in the GF dependent on the opponent.
Hope you are still holding big greens on Hawks/Swans. Reckon you will have two home prelims booked if you are |
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I'm with you on that one. Hawks evens against anyone and I'd be emptying the account. Can't honestly see that happening though.
Calculating your numbers through is already 8.60 anyway, and that is with Cats at 2.20 to beat the Hawks. The Hawks are 2.40 to win it all. No way they go around at 1.83 to beat Geelong IMO. That would price them at under 1.00 for the final. If you truly believe that pricing you'd have to be mad not to lay the Hawks for big money in the GF market now. |
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CS I would not lay the Hawks as if Geelong don't get to them, they are over the line in my humble opinion. They are absolutely awesome and have become the complete team with a core of players who are at the peak of the powers.
Yes 8.57 is I think where I had Geelong on those numbers, so shorter than the 8's quoted in this thread for the flag. I logically think the 2.4 is not too short for Hawthorn, as they are more like 1.3 pokes in any final bar Geelong, which makes them a tick better than even money. The premium is built in if they get Geelong, and I am sure the market will be incorrect as I said for that match if it eventuates. Re your last line, I am not a mug CS, I don't bet on everything like some, and prefer to just watch and enjoy this great game. |
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Never intended to imply you were a mug, AD. Obviously, I don't think that.
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if the Cats meet the Hawks, they will be at least 2.50, and IMO there is no way the cats are fav's over Sydney at ANZ Stadium or fav's over Adelaide at AAMI, still sticking to my guns ....the cats are 14/1 chances for mine to win the GF, and only a grand intervention can stop the hawks from winning the GF
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I'd take 14/1 now Loggy. I don't think they're that long. But they have eased to a more reasonable price now anyway. They were 8.0 to lay when I first posted on it, and got to 7.60 to lay. I laid a lot down there and bought 8.4, though by the looks I probably should have waited a touch longer.
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so no one is predicting any upsets this week???
I still like the Swans to beat the Crows (but I am a Swans fan) - I think the harder run in and playing finals type football for 3 of the last 4 weeks will have them ready to rip. the other 3 games look boring and straight forward |
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jordan lewis in or out
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In
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Once again a lot of sense in this thread. Hard to see upsets happening this week. Won't surprise me to see the Hawks/Magpies game a real arm wrestle for 3/4 before the Hawks take control. Very windy today, kicking for goal going to be tricky. Pies defence will force Buddy and co out wide. Playing the exotics tonight and taking Buddy, Roughy, Rioli, and Breust to kick more behinds than goals in a Yankee!
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Winker ..... weather has been absolutely awful in Adelaide the last 48 hours (first bit of sunshine just now). Hope that does not get to the G tonight
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I live down Mornington way, it has been terrible here today. Might ease off a bit, but going to make it hard for Hawks precise kicking game.
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Melbourne boy not too far from city and windy as all hell today and has been like that last few days. Inclement weather a real leveller sometimes, the Pies are not be discounted in any way going in to tonights match.
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Mail Johncock may not play for Adelaide tomorrow night
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Yeah I heard Stiffy might be out..soft tissue complaint
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Still doubt on Lewis..with the other injuries they have should be 1.70 each of two IMO
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clearly you lot haven't watched collingwood play recently but hope your right I 'm waiting until in play hopefully the pies get off to a good start and I'll get a let botter odds the hawks who'll wear them them down and win on the bit.
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1.70 each of two??????? please teddy bear bit of a ordinary market
lewis is out |
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 went to Tom Waterhouse Skool of bookmaking..Guerra,Ellis,Lewis. Big outs IMO..... |
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young Young...not Ellis..they look the same
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3 big outs for them in deed, and all great left footers....still the hawks for me but no value at 1.33 or minus 20
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great conditions at the G, what a great pitch it is
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Pies trying to play dirty what a surprise, that's the only way the pond scum could even contemplate winning this game.
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They are different gravy this mob
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Love finals footy. How good is this compared to some of the **** served up in Round 23.
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Hawks losing soldiers..game on ...
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Different gravy Ted
How good are you going when you can bring Savage in as your 25th man and he can do this in a final |
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If has often amazed me how Savage doesn't get a regular gig I had him in my supercoach side all last season and its hard to believe he didn't get more oportunities this year.
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No whitecross or roughed (suspended) next game.. But your right,diff gravy..
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They will get Lewis and Young back though
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Maxwell........ shocking captain
IMO |
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Just saw the premiers..
West coast or north will beat collingwood next week IMO Although without Maxwell,they will be improved IMO |
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Everyone playing for second now
Pies/Roos will be a good battle |
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Buddy..." happy to get the 4 pts"
and for once they weren't demerit pts.  |
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I suppose I should lay a little off now...
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Hawks should be $1.50 for the flag imo
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