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well the TAB have put up their head to head markets for the first week.
Hawks 1.50 coll 2.65
Adel 1.65 Syd 2.25
Geel 1.30 Freo 3.55
WCE 1.25 Nth 4.0
well i reckon they have 2 completely wrong here.............hawks for mine are 1/3 chances if not shorter and adel i reckon 1/2 or even 2/5
the others are around my mark
Hawks 1.50 coll 2.65
Adel 1.65 Syd 2.25
Geel 1.30 Freo 3.55
WCE 1.25 Nth 4.0
well i reckon they have 2 completely wrong here.............hawks for mine are 1/3 chances if not shorter and adel i reckon 1/2 or even 2/5
the others are around my mark
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Geelong, Eagles and Hawks all just win, makes for a nice little all up and swans are a very big chance against the crows.
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Surely the Eagles Roos odds are the wrong way around?
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Joel I wish you and Aussie Drive would stop picking on the resident expert on all racing codes, ex Greyhounds, and all things AFL
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Chariots it is his knowledge of overseas racing which astounds me, fair play to him if he does full video reviews of all codes in all states here and abroad. Maybe he could show me how to pack a 3 hour review into 8 mins?
Hawks will win Swans should beat Adelaide who have been average since the Collingwood game mid season Geelong should win although looking forward to seeing the emerging Freo Roos look easy winners |
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Doing UK form in specific races at their carnivals is dead set easy it's just a matter of finding and watching the videos. There far too interest interested in whether a stable is in form or if a horse has a "name" rider on board, their so called form assessment is antiquated at best.
Loath greyhounds with a passion and have said many many times I know nothing about them, besides if you can't pick up on form anywhere by merely watching enough replays, trials etc associated and having some sort of basic form guide which gives you the relevant essential raw data, weights, barriers,track conditions, what it raced against, margins, times, career record etc with a particular race you're not worth your salt as a form analyst anyway. |
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Not to mention if you can't recognise a good horse when you see it on video or when you see it race in the flesh you shouldn't be participating seriously in punting anyway.
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I think week 1 will see Geelong pass the batton on to the new power in football Freo
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Dream on, Freo to be exposed big time by the awesome machine that is Geelong who are coming with a perfectly timed run.
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Perfectly timed run sums Freo up perfectly
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Clearly the best team west of Geelong
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What about Port Joel? They would at least run second in that race
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Many of the Hawks players have plenty of run in their legs with not much in the upper body muscle department compared to most opposition teams, thats why their running all the time getting into better positions. Only way the Pies can win is bump and tackle hard at every contest. Our game has lost a lot of its bump and I mean hard and legal bumps over the last few years. Its still quite legal. Hit the Hawks hard when contesting and ever after disposing, lighter frames can't sustain it for 4 quarters, it hurts.
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Port OK, Adelaide slightly better.
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just got my first fck upp the clacker by this mob..........backed port adelaide in the run at 4/1 with 365; excepting half face value of the ticket because of the draw; but no...they r the only fcken bookies in this country that pay money back.................and i know that i should have looked at their rules, but for fck sake, not happy janet
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1.50 to 1.38 already Hawks ... what were they thinking?!?!
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I see it the other way on Adelaide. Really like the Swans there.
Pies can't win on their showing against the Bombers. Not sure there is much in the tank to be honest. They look about as shot as North. Well ok, not THAT shot. Freo is in cracking form and I reckon $4.00 is decent overs. They and Geelong are probably in the best form of any of the sides right now. Ross Lyon knows Geelong. I reckon it could be a closer game than the odds would otherwise suggest. |
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it's a shame but looks like there will only be one close match this week - i.e. Crows vs Swans
Crows have a fantastic record against the Swans and are a bit of a bogey side but I'm not giving up hope. Swans have been playing finals type football in 3 of their last 4 games against The Pies, Hawks and Cats and although losing them all they should've beat the Pies (kicked 9 - 16), and the Hawks (5 points up with 2 minutes to play). Trounced the Bulldogs in there as well. Crows last 4 have been wins against The Dockers, Demons and Suns and a loss to the Lions - they are only where they are due to having the easiest draw of any club this year. So despite them being a bogey side, the Swans can do it and win the right to a week off imo  |
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Yes but Adelaide can only beat whats put in front of them. They belted both Melbourne and Suns by as much as you could expect them to. Also to beat a Ross Lyon coached team at the pointy end of the season is a good effort, even if Fyfe and McPharlin were late withdrawals.
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Fkn soft game..Steve j gets a week...should appeal IMO
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the swans looked spent last round against the cats. 2 hard games in a row now coming up against a very upbeat and fresh Adelaide team at home. should be 1.50 adelaide.........hawks getting to their right odds now, what was the tab thinking putting up 1/2......if the geelong/freo game was at the Dome, i'd be all over the dockers but the MCG wont let them play their shut down game against the cats......wce look the winners but if Nth find their run game of a few weeks ago they might scare them
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Can't see how Freo don't progress the prelim now
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north kids still in dreamworld about playing finals football, its shown the last 2 weeks and will again this week, sadly a thumping, hopefully they play like they did against the pies, but wont be enough i guess, eagles 6 goals better at home,
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The Stevie J news has really made me strong about the Dockers now. Egg on face is likely, but I reckon they are enormous value at around $4.
Swans did look tired last round but likely to get Sam Reid back and will show up this week. 1.50 Adelaide, Loggy. Geez I wish you were my bookie  |
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Just on the subject of Geelong, how can they be 8.0 for the flag???
Path to the GF as I see it most likely as follows: Beat Freo 1.33 Beat Loser of Sydney/Adelaide away 2.10-2.20 Beat winner of Hawthorn/Collingwood (probably hawks) 2.30-2.40 Win the GF v Adelaide or Collingwood 1.50-1.70 As best they should be 9.63 and probably closer to 11.0 Show me how I am wrong please... |
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By the same token hawks have to get past their bogey side geelong to even make the gf more than likely, their way unders currently for mine at 2.10 and think geelong are still overs at 8 bucks, geelong have to appeal if they're confident they can get stevie j off this ridiuclous penalty gruddy clobers the bloke and ends up with one week what is going on and stevie j did nothing of the sort very similar to earlier in the year when they got him off, if they're certain they can get him off then go for it otherwise I suppose you can't take thn chance.
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going on your pricing though snake I will conede that you do have a point. Pies impossible for mine.
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My pricing is probably way off, so many things can affect it, but 8.0 is wrong and now it's 7.80 to lay.
I love this time of year. The idiots are out in force again  That's ok, I'll take 'em on. It's what I live for  |
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your on the same page snake..............i have the cats about a 14/1..........i wish u where a client of mine if i was a bookie..........geel 2.20 against sydney or adelaide away,...pleassseee............geelong 2.40 against hawks more like 3.0........and that short in the grand final, not IMO............but each to their own thoughts
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Nah, loggy, I was being conservative, very much so, and even then it was over 9. That was my point.
Those prices were absolute lows IMO. |
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Just on that, logmeister, the rationale there is that they trade unders because they are the hot side and defending champs and all that guff.
I wouldn't actually be taking those prices from you or anyone, so don't go hunting a bookie license |
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got it...........same as the brownlow, i will assure you if Swan has a couple of good games in the finals his b/low price will drop, i know its strange but that is the way the herd works
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I am counting on that. Makes me laugh really hard when players firm for the Brownlow on finals form.
It's then that I know why I make a living this way. God bless them all. |
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Surely Adelaide are every chance at home, 1.70 great price for me
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I think Fremantle are a real shout against Geelong this week, they played in the 2009 Semi Finals where Geelong with a far better squad beat the Dockers at the MCG, Dockers players are more mature and still the majority of that squad are still playing in this weeks game.(and they will be better for that experience) The key for me will be the start of the game, Dockers need to be coming prepared 1st quarter, last time they played at the G, they got blown off 8 goals to 1 in 1st qtr. Dockers are no chance of winning flag, making grand final, and are around a 10% chance of making a prelim final. (would loved to be proved wrong)
I think Hawks V Pies should be alot tighter than the odds suggest, their last 14 games have been split 7-7. I wouldnt look too much at their last game. A lower scoring game under lights favours Collingwood, Hawks are just too potent in attack at the moment, but at odds of 3.80 Pies with a slightly more bigger crowd support is worth a go with a view of trading in-play. |
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Remember last 2 games for Hawks will have taken their toll on them: physical games against Sydney and WCE , were played in finals like intensity. I know Collingwood has a difficult draw as well with WCE and Essendon, but Pies I dont think were fully focussed last week (especially 1st half) but make no mistake they will come with full energy this week.
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Riddle me this, Batman...
How can the Crows and Swans, both with double chances be a point higher for the flag than Geelong playing an elimination final? Honestly, I am not going to fix it, but someone should |
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Snake, simply, it is almost impossible to see Adelaide or Sydney beating Hawthorn. We know Geelong can. Sydney, and maybe Adelaide, are more chance of reaching the big dance, but less chance of actually winning it. I don't see the market as incorrrect in that sense frankly
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I guess it depends how you bet doesn't it. If you want to lay off Syd or Adel are better bets, if you are backing Cats you would need to hold for longer
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jennys brother daniel talia wins rising star...
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