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THE CLIMATE CHANGE MYTH that Julia wants us all to pay for

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By:
Thebas
When: 07 Mar 14 15:00
worst govt ever the one that conned all australians by bringing in the fake for the environment co2 tax Grin

worst opposition ever for hanging on to the toxic tax against the wishes of the electorate last election Laugh

(apologies for pinching your slogan essence womble its late and i'm too tired to come up with anything else at this point Wink)
By:
Thebas
When: 07 Mar 14 15:10
bigted
Twiggy..he's a ****,does he pay his tax in Australia


... left wing nonsense imo

http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/fortescues-mining-tax-challenge-dismissed-20130807-2reeq.html

“Fortescue challenged the MRRT because it was an unreasonable intrusion into an area of state responsibility and that it was also an unfair, discriminatory and complex tax.

“Fortescue expects to pay $1.5 billion in company tax and royalties this financial year rising to $2 billion in the years ahead,” Mr Power said.


... and .. from the independent andrew wilkie

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/andrew-twiggy-forrest-owed-an-apology-on-tax-andrew-wilkie/story-e6frg906-1226576780847


INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie has called for Labor to publicly apologise to Fortescue Metals' boss Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, saying his warnings about the mining tax should have been heeded.

Mr Wilkie, who voted with the government to get the minerals resource rent tax through parliament, said Mr Forrest was right when he argued big miners would avoid paying the MRRT because of their ability to claim tax credits.

“I think Andrew Forrest is owed an apology because in the lead-up to the MRRT becoming law, he lobbied very hard the crossbenchers (and) the government I assume,” he told ABC radio.

“And he argued there was a fundamental flaw in the tax; and that was the way the depreciation provisions were set up and they unfairly favoured the big three miners.

“Now I must admit at the time I was sorely temped to go with his line of thinking.

Instead I decided to trust the Treasury and the government.

“But he's been proven completely right.

I've as much as apologised publicly to him and I think the government should do the same.”

---

....  naturally enough gillard and swan gave no apology to their incorrect setting up of a tax that let the big three miners dodge a tax bullet

gillard & swan ... the two most hopeless people to control our country and its finances in living history  Cry
By:
wombleoz
When: 08 Mar 14 00:04
to prove once again that the tax is working

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/mar/07/carbon-taxed-companies-cut-emissions-by-7-in-past-year-investor-group-says

Greenhouse emissions from Australian companies paying the carbon tax have fallen by 7% over the past year “in large part” due to the carbon price impost, the Investor Group on Climate Change has said.

Calculations by the group of official data from the Clean Energy Regulator shows carbon emissions from Australia’s 350 largest corporate emitters – who are directly liable to pay the tax – fell from 342m tonnes in 2011-12 to 321m tonnes in 2012-13.

The group’s chief executive, Nathan Fabian, said he believed the carbon tax was “the major contributor” to the decrease in emissions, although other factors did play a role, including the shutdown of some large electricity generators because of weather events and the closure of some major manufacturing operations.
By:
Thebas
When: 08 Mar 14 00:10
how can it be working ????

ted showed us a meteorologist who said climate change (in Perth Laugh) is now worse than ever 

or are you saying that australia's emmissions are so low on the global scale that anything we have done so far has ZERO impact on the planet as a whole ?
By:
bigted.
When: 08 Mar 14 01:21
THE mining company owned by billionaire Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest has not paid any corporate tax for seven years.

And the high-profile critic of the Federal Government's proposed mining tax has admitted it may not be liable to pay that either.

Mr Forrest is Australia's richest man, worth an estimated $6 billion, and recently acquired a $50 million private jet. His Fortescue Metals Group is valued at $16 billion.

Fortescue Metals' tax manager, Marcus Hughes, conceded to a parliamentary committee yesterday: "We have not cut a corporate tax cheque to date."

But Mr Hughes said that after writing off exploration and development costs since 2003, the company would be "paying our first company tax cheque effective 1 December this year", of $100 million.


**** !
By:
Thebas
When: 08 Mar 14 01:37
Iron ore miner Fortescue Metals says it does not expect to pay any mining tax for years on end, because of flaws in the tax’s design.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/unlikely-to-pay-mining-tax-for-years-fortescue-20130220-2er18.html#ixzz2vKaA7LWN

... they explained this to gillard & swan who decided not to listen Cry
By:
Thebas
When: 08 Mar 14 01:38
INDEPENDENT MP Andrew Wilkie has called for Labor to publicly apologise to Fortescue Metals' boss Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest, saying his warnings about the mining tax should have been heeded.
By:
wombleoz
When: 08 Mar 14 10:16
first step in the process is to reduce emissions, the rest will come potentially come from there

are we better or worse off with 7% less emissions???
By:
Thebas
When: 08 Mar 14 11:48
no difference imo 

tho a perth meteorologist says its become ... 'madness' ... over there since the co2 tax was introduced

so i looked the term 'madness' up ... in the meteorological dictionary ... but no findee   Wink
By:
wombleoz
When: 08 Mar 14 12:06
how can it be no difference? how can 7% less pollution be a bad thing??
By:
Thebas
When: 08 Mar 14 12:09
ask qantas Mischief
By:
Thebas
When: 08 Mar 14 12:10
just yankin ya chain mate .. have a top night   Wink
By:
wombleoz
When: 08 Mar 14 12:12
before or after the government tells them what to say??? Wink

you too Thebas
By:
secong coming.
When: 09 Mar 14 21:45
how can it be no difference? how can 7% less pollution be a bad thing??

When it has cost billions....and helps to add to the unemployment line...........and had made NO DIFFERENCE to the Climate.....that's how

BIGGEST RORT EVER AngryAngryAngry
By:
wombleoz
When: 11 Mar 14 21:52
money well spent imo

would be fascinating to see how many of those 350 companies increased profits and kept the same staffing - i might get someone onto it

it won't happen overnight but it will happen

interesting China seems to have seen the light, will be closing down lots of dirty coal powered plants etc
By:
Thebas
When: 11 Mar 14 23:42

wombleoz
interesting China seems to have seen the light, will be closing down lots of dirty coal powered plants etc



.... labor and dirty coal ffs

total hypocrits imo especially that gillard ... say one thing .. plan another ... (can't trust them voters know that)

from the SBS ... (the biased ABC missed that report maybe Wink)

http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2012/09/05/labor-scraps-plan-close-dirty-power-stations


The federal (Labor) government has abandoned plans to pay some of Australia's dirtiest coal-fired power generators to shut down under its co-called contract for closure program.

Labor Energy Minister Martin Ferguson said the government could not be satisfied that entering into such arrangements would achieve value for money against the program's objectives.  [LaughLaughLaugh]

"The contract for closure negotiations have taken place constructively and in good faith but there remains a material gap between the level of compensation generators have sought and what the government is prepared to pay," Mr Ferguson said in a statement on Wednesday.

The program had sought to support the closure of around 2000 megawatts of highly emissions-intensive generation capacity by 2020.

But a June 30 deadline for locking in a deal has already been and gone.
By:
AFL
When: 12 Mar 14 10:40
The Conversation

12 March 2014
David Holmes

The ultimate conservationist? The looming crisis for the Abbott government

Two political speeches that grabbed the most attention last week were those of Greens senator Scott Ludlam and prime minister Tony Abbott. Both were quite peculiar but for diametrically opposing reasons.

Perhaps timed for this weekend’s Tasmanian state election, Abbott gave a “let’s help Tasmania” speech to a room full of appreciative forestry workers, while Ludlam pursued a kind of ode to everything that he saw as wrong with the current government to an almost empty senate chamber.

Abbott received applause during his speech, and Ludlam only silence.

Yet these speeches were also covered by mainstream and social media, where the reception they received was abruptly reversed. Only a few news outlets bothered making a clip of Abbott’s speech, with tweets and social media recommendations numbering in the hundreds. As of today, Ludlam’s speech has passed an astonishing 710,000 YouTube views.

Ludlam’s speech dealt with a wide range of issues that are core to the agenda of the Greens: asylum policy, anti-mining, anti-privatisation, same-sex marriage, manufacturing workers. It was a broadside against the Abbott government ahead of the Senate re-election contest in WA that is not looking promising for Ludlam.

However, Ludlam returned to green themes the most – renewable energy, nuclear power and climate change – to put to Abbott:

    Your only proposal for environmental reforms thus far is to leave minister Greg Hunt to playing solitaire for the next three years whilst you outsource his responsibilities.

It is “bitterly obvious”, Ludlam said, that these responsibilities have been handed to the agents of “predator capitalism” rather than the public interest.

Abbott’s speech to the Australian Forest Products Association was an impassioned clarion call to another kind of environmentalism. It was a call to people who work on the land who are seen to be in touch with “mother nature”, a nostalgic view that assumes a respect for the natural world.

Abbott begins with an account of timber craftsmen: those who can create wonderous objects of beauty out of the forest. People who work with timber, who know the value of “working with one’s hands” are the “ultimate conservationists”, he said. He continued:

    Man and the environment are meant for each other. The last thing we do – the last thing we should want – if we want to genuinely improve our environment is to want to ban men and women from enjoying it, is to ban men and women from making the most of it and that’s what you do.

And here the speech is most revealing of the Abbott government’s philosophy of nature. Enjoyment of “nature” is not an aesthetic matter but an economic one. It is economic, because “nature” is assumed to be an inert and abundant resource to be “husbanded”, which is how 18th century enlightenment thinkers constructed discourses about “nature”, assuming that “man” has very little impact on the natural world.

Thus these forests are said to be “locked up” from such enjoyment – namely logging.

    We have quite enough National Parks, we have quite enough locked up forests already. In fact, in an important respect, we have too much locked up forest.

This is why Abbott consistently throughout his speech attacks what he calls the:

    …green ideology, which has done so much damage to our country over the last couple of decades.

The green ideology is deemed to be anti-enjoyment, in two senses, as it separates us from the resources to craft timber, but also from economic enjoyment.

AAP/Forestry Tasmania

Abbott was able to appeal to a largely sectarian audience. Most of them have been part of very effective management strategies in the Tasmanian forest industry that has allowed World Heritage listing of the pristine areas in the first place.

But the problem for Abbott began as soon as he walked out of the chamber of applause. To begin with, the forestry industry in Tasmania, where the Abbott government is proposing to “unlock” 74,000 hectares of World Heritage listed forest, is not exactly an economic bonanza. It employs, directly and indirectly, far less people than are about to lose their jobs at Qantas.

And as far as romanticising it as a resource for craftsmen, 75% of trees logged in Tasmania go to woodchips at a price barely competitive with chips from southeast Asia.

Forestry Tasmania, which oversees public native Forests, reported a A$64 million gross net loss for the 2009-12 period, and it is widely viewed as a declining industry. If any part of the World Heritage forests lost their certification, Tasmania would have trouble selling its timber anywhere on the world market.

But the much larger issue here is how such a policy conflicts with “Direct Action”: a policy with no program for carbon pricing, a green army of underpaid, unemployed people, whose main carbon mitigation reform is the carbon sequestration offered by planting trees. Yes, planting trees, not logging them.

It might be just as well that Abbott’s speech has been largely “locked up” within the auditorium of the forestry workers given the Abbott government is now on a collision course with its responsibilities at the G20 meeting in November. This meeting is being hosted and chaired by Australia in Brisbane, and member nations are pushing for climate change to be very high on the agenda.

The international pressure for climate change action will be exquisite in Brisbane. It would be difficult to invent a more awkward contrast between Australia’s domestic myopia and the international momentum on climate action.

A Globe International assessment of the climate mitigation strategies of 66 countries rated Australia as the bottom of the barrel. Headed by former Thatcher government minister Lord Deben, the Abbott government’s climate policies are described as:

    …so unintellectual as to be unacceptable; I mean it is just amazing.


Australia is identified as the only country on earth to be winding back national climate legislation.

How Australia is going to chair a meeting that is starring climate change as a priority item will be excruciating to watch. And if Greg Hunt or Tony Abbott have to give a speech, that would be amazing.
By:
wombleoz
When: 12 Mar 14 22:37
Labor are weak in areas they should be strong - that's the problem with trying to back blue collar jobs in dirty industries - hard balance to find and they haven't

Another plug for the Ken Henry interview on 730 last night - also said if you want to cut emissions, and both parties do, the cheapest way is through an ETS
By:
Thebas
When: 12 Mar 14 23:02
henry also said this ... easy to miss i guess Wink

Dr Henry, who led a tax review under the former Labor government, also warns Australia is facing an "imminent crisis" in its taxation system unless there is "comprehensive" reform.

The 2010 review of the taxation system identified a number of medium term challenges, such as welfare payments and an ageing population

But Labor didn't act on these or his recommendation for a widespread overhaul.


----

now as far as the ETS being cheaper ... that appears the whole purpose ... what is cheaper

the whole rhetoric about the environment and reducing co2 output HAS GONE MISSING

missing ever since the IPCC official Ottmar at Cancun advised the whole the environment was no longer a part of the climate action plan ... which is in essence is now wealth redistribution

labor (Cry) had a chance to close down all our our dirty brown coal sites .. they had a plan called "contract for closure"

ferguson told us that gillards govt "could not be satisfied that entering into such arrangements would achieve value for money against the program's objectives. 

VALUE FOR MONEY FFS Laugh  ... ie fk the environment

yet at the same time gillard announced she was earmarking $10 billion from the co2 to GIVE to the UN/IPCC as our 'donation' against the war on global warming (now called climate change Wink)

value for money choice under the gillard deceiver
1. pay to close down existing dirty brown coal sites
2. give billions to the UN for ZERO return for australia's environment

her fake for the environment co2 tax was exposed .. as soon as she opened her deceiving mouth Laugh
By:
AFL
When: 12 Mar 14 23:30
Australia's greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector are down about 7.6 per cent since the carbon tax was introduced in

July 2012, or the equivalent of about 14.8 million tonnes.


...........................................................................................

Ohh damm it worked apparently .....pity about the scare campaign. Laugh
By:
Thebas
When: 12 Mar 14 23:40
Laugh

major closure of coal plant electricity generator in victoria

AIG report the same closure of businesses ...  8.0% ... during the period of reduction of electricity usage

hmmmm less businesses using less eclectricity with less employees ... great trad-off

and yet the alarmists are saying climate change is worse than ever

TAX DIDN'T WORK FOR ITS STATED PURPOSE .. ie  the environment

tax did work .. in putting australians out of work (as predicted) Cry
By:
AFL
When: 12 Mar 14 23:47
What the science says...

There have long been claims that some unspecificed "they" has "changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'".

In reality, the two terms mean different things, have both been used for decades,

and the only individual to have specifically advocated changing the name in this fashion is a global warming 'skeptic'.


Global Warming vs. Climate Change

Both of the terms in question are used frequently in the scientific literature, because they refer to two different physical

phenomena
.As the name suggests, 'global warming' refers to the long-term trend of a rising average global temperature, which you

can see here:

'Climate change', again as the name suggests, refers to the changes in the global climate which result from the increasing average

global temperature.  For example, changes in precipitation patterns, increased prevalence of droughts, heat waves, and other

extreme weather, etc.  These projections of future global precipitation changes from the 2007 IPCC report are an example of climate

change:

Thus while the physical phenomena are causally related, they are not the same thing.  Human greenhouse gas emissions are causing

global warming, which in turn is causing climate change.  However, because the terms are causally related, they are often used

interchangeably in normal daily communications.


Both Terms Have Long Been Used

The argument "they changed the name" suggests that the term 'global warming' was previously the norm, and the widespread use of the term 'climate change' is now.  However, this is simply untrue. 

For example, a seminal climate science work is Gilbert Plass' 1956 study 'The Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climatic Change'

(which coincidentally estimated the climate sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide at 3.6°C, not far off from

today's widely accepted most likely value of 3°C).  Barrett and Gast published

a letter in Science in 1971 entitled simply 'Climate Change'.  The journal 'Climatic Change' was created in 1977

(and is still published today).  The IPCC was formed in 1988, and of course the 'CC' is 'climate change', not 'global warming'.

There are many, many other examples of the use of the term 'climate change' many decades ago. There is nothing new whatsoever

about the usage of the term.


In fact, according to Google Books, the usage of both terms in books published in the United States has increased at similar rates

over the past 40 years:

..................................................................................
By:
Thebas
When: 13 Mar 14 00:16
i did put a wink after it AFL  Laugh

sceptics .. alarmists .. all got an agenda ... co2 tax it trade it .. all money movement shame about the environment

the IPCC/UN should immediately retrench the 97% 10,000 climate scientists ... the "scisnce is stelled" lol

then they should employ 10,000 more scientists (and keep the 3% Wink) and spend the next 10 years finding a way to deal with nuclear waste ... as that is the ONLY issue left

thorium based nuclear reactors cannot be subject to a plutonium like chain reaction explosion as it non fissile

thorium cannot be used for weapons bombs etc ...


china are now are building new nuclear plants daily

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/2014-03/11/content_17340260.htm

China has 17 nuclear power stations in operation with a total installed capacity of 14.8 million kilowatts. A further 28 units are under construction.

In 2012, a medium-term nuclear safety plan was passed, curbing nuclear pollution as well as raising security at nuclear facilities. The plan includes better anti-seismic and radioactive substance control designs for new plants.


.. for a total of 45 nuclear power stations to be up and running

... while the IPCC/UN and lackies like the gillard-disposed Australia piddle around with 5% emissions targets etc etc for the next 75 plus years waiting for all the coal to dry up ...

europe have been at the fake-for-the-environment tax-trade scam for over 10 years at a cost to their honest hard working citizens of biliions and billions

the co2 tax-trade scam is up gillard ... otto let the cat out of the bag at cancun ... it has no longer anything to do with the environment

(our own greg combet was in attendance at cancun but failed to advise our countries citizens of the change to policy - asleep at the wheel greg ? or just watching all the scantily clad men & women on the cancun beaches Wink)
By:
Thebas
When: 13 Mar 14 00:16
^ the science is settled lol Blush
By:
wombleoz
When: 13 Mar 14 21:23
indeed it is Thebas, the science is settled so all we need to work out is what action to take - coal is dying
By:
AFL
When: 14 Mar 14 01:00
The 5 Stages of climate change DENIAL

1. Deny the Problem Exists

2. Deny We're the Cause

2b. Consensus Denial

3. Deny it's a problem

4. Deny we can solve it.

5. It's Too Late (Self-Fulfilling)
By:
Thebas
When: 14 Mar 14 01:02
a slow lingering 75 year death is a sick way to treat the planet

euthenasia is best imo

but hang on .. while the sick & dying linger ... there is $$$$$ to be made ... trading & taxing on their misery

deceivers
By:
Thebas
When: 14 Mar 14 01:05
5 stages of alarmism

1. tell them the planet is dying
2. make a dvd that is determined by a High Court Judge to be ... alrmist political propaganda
3. have your deceiving PM tell you she is giving $10 billion of our sovereign wealth to a global money re-distribution plan
4. tell them we know what the problem is .. and it will only take us 75 years to solve it 
5. make out that anyone who questions the wisdom of the planet's slow death to be anti-science Laugh

tricksters, deceivers, political propagandists = alarmists
By:
secong coming.
When: 18 Mar 14 01:30
$280 billion+ spent and redistributed in the EU...for what??? they are still moaning about CC....derr the climate always changes regardless on $$$ spent CrazyCrazyCrazy

BIGGEST RORT EVER AngryAngryAngry
By:
secong coming.
When: 18 Mar 14 01:30
*regardless of Mischief
By:
Thebas
When: 18 Mar 14 03:12
watsed and just gone SC .. irresponsible

but lucky the "science is all settled once and for all nothing else to consider just tax & trade the invisible stuff"

.. but hang on ... NASA are still looking into associations ... of clouds & climate (read climate change Wink) etc in the hope that we all learn more ... they clearly don't think its settled ... hey maybe NASA are the 3% who knows Wink


http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/role.html

If the climate should change, then clouds would also change, altering all of the effects listed above.

What is important is the sum of all these separate effects, the net radiative cooling or warming effect of all clouds on Earth.

For example, if Earth's climate should warm due to the greenhouse effect, the weather patterns and the associated clouds would change; but it is not known whether the resulting cloud changes would diminish the warming (a negative feedback) or enhance the warming (a positive feedback).

Moreover, it is not known whether these cloud changes would involve increased or decreased precipitation and water supplies in particular regions.

Improving our understanding of the role of clouds in climate is crucial to understanding the effects of global warming.
By:
wombleoz
When: 18 Mar 14 22:32
if stuff like is happening in Paris continues there'll be more action

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2582658/Hundreds-police-street-stop-Parisians-numbered-plates-driving-bid-tackle-smog.html
By:
wombleoz
When: 18 Mar 14 22:33
good top see Clive backing the renewable energy target - has he seen the light???
By:
Thebas
When: 19 Mar 14 00:08
yes womble .. and to think they could have solved the traffic pollution in heartbeat by converting every petrol car to gas

the powers that be pretend to be interested in the environment ... but they are fakers

(just like that gillard and her fake-for-the environment co2 tax)

---

now back to the global warming climate change 'science is settled' trick

the alarmists tell us volcanic co2 is a minimal involvement in the co2 in the atmosphere ... the alrmists suggesting it is man .. and only man who is putting substantial amounts if co2 in to the air

and then of course .. they don't want to stop the man made co2 .. they just want to tax & trade it .. for 75 years  Cry

http://www.livescience.com/40451-volcanic-co2-levels-are-staggering.html

Robin Wylie, is a doctoral candidate in volcanology, at University College London. He contributed this article toLiveScience's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.

The exploding hills really give the game away: We've always known the Earth is a smoker. The true extent of its habit, though, is only just beginning to surface.

As scientific progress is widening our perspective, the daunting outline of how little we really know about volcanoes is beginning to loom large

Scientists' best estimates, however, are based on an assumption.

It might surprise you to learn that, well into the new century, of the 150 smokers I mentioned, almost 80 percent are still as mysterious, in terms of the quantity of CO2 they emit, as they were a generation ago.

We've only actually measured 33.

----

thank goodness some scientists don't see science as being settled (isn't the phrase 'science is settled' actually anti-science ?)

we are still studying .. and still finding out things about our planet that we don't yet know

may the studies continue in the name of science

and may the political proagandists who want to milk honest citizens and sovereign wealth with fake tax & trading of co2 YET not want to STOP pumping out the c02 be finally seen for the tricksters they are

(ie  gillard approved the Alpha Coal mine for her 'real' boss Gina NOT 7 weeks after introducing her fake-for-the-environment co2 tax)
By:
secong coming.
When: 19 Mar 14 03:22
IPCC must be running out of money....spewing out garbage daily now....latest is it will displace hundreds of millions of people CrazyCrazyCrazy....cost the world collectively trillions all by 2030.....some really good Persians at hand over there.....bankers rubbing hands gleefully
By:
secong coming.
When: 19 Mar 14 03:23
whats your number plate Womble odd or even? you do have a car don't you? ......3,4,6 or 8 cylinder?
By:
Thebas
When: 19 Mar 14 04:52
and lucky the science on arctic climate is not yet settled  Grin

http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/ipy-20071113_prt.htm

PASADENA, Calif. –

A team of NASA and university scientists has detected an ongoing reversal in Arctic Ocean circulation triggered by atmospheric circulation changes that vary on decade-long time scales.

The results suggest not all the large changes seen in Arctic climate in recent years are a result of long-term trends associated with global warming.

----

that's the beauty of science - just when you think its settled, science finds something new Wink
By:
AFL
When: 19 Mar 14 20:28
A number of climate skeptics have been exploiting global sea level data in their latest attempt to hide the incline. 

Skeptical Science readers will be very familiar with the tactics the "skeptics" use to make this argument:

1.   Cherrypick a very small amount of data during which the short-term noise has dampened the long-term incline

2.   Ignore the long-term trend

3.   Refuse to examine the reasons behind the short-term change

.................................................................................................
From the same article in 2007 Thebas posted

The Arctic Oscillation was fairly stable until about 1970, but then varied on more or less decadal time scales, with signs of an underlying upward trend, until the late 1990s, when it again stabilized. During its strong counterclockwise phase in the 1990s, the Arctic environment changed markedly, with the upper Arctic Ocean undergoing major changes that persisted into this century. Many scientists viewed the changes as evidence of an ongoing climate shift, raising concerns about the effects of global warming on the Arctic.

Morison said data gathered by Grace and the bottom pressure gauges since publication of the paper earlier this year highlight how short-lived the ocean circulation changes can be. The newer data indicate the bottom pressure has increased back toward its 2002 level. "The winter of 2006-2007 was another high Arctic Oscillation year and summer sea ice extent reached a new minimum," he said. "It is too early to say, but it looks as though the Arctic Ocean is ready to start swinging back to the counterclockwise circulation pattern of the 1990s again."

Morison cautioned that while the recent decadal-scale changes in the circulation of the Arctic Ocean may not appear to be directly tied to global warming, most climate models predict the Arctic Oscillation will become even more strongly counterclockwise in the future. "The events of the 1990s may well be a preview of how the Arctic will respond over longer periods of time in a warming world," he said.


................................................................................................


Antarctic Sea Ice is increasing

Antarctic sea ice has shown long term growth since satellites began measurements in 1979.
This is an observation that has been often cited as proof against global warming.

However, rarely is the question raised: why is Antarctic sea ice increasing?

The implicit assumption is it must be cooling around Antarctica.

This is decidedly not the case.

In fact, the Southern Ocean has been warming faster than the rest of the world's oceans.

Globally from 1955 to 1995, oceans have been warming at 0.1°C per decade. In contrast, the Southern Ocean has been warming at 0.17°C per decade. Not only is the Southern Ocean warming, it is warming faster than the global trend.


Figure 3: Surface air temperature over the ice-covered areas of the Southern Ocean (top). Sea ice extent, observed by satellite (bottom). (Zhang 2007)

If the Southern Ocean is warming, why is Antarctic sea ice increasing? There are several contributing factors. One is the drop in ozone levels over Antarctica. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole has caused cooling in the stratosphere (Gillet 2003). This strengthens the cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent (Thompson 2002). The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas lead to increased sea ice production (Turner 2009).

Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007). An increase in melting of Antarctic land ice will also contribute to the increased sea ice production (Bintanga et al. 2013).

In summary, Antarctic sea ice is a complex and unique phenomenon. The simplistic interpretation that it must be cooling around Antarctica is decidedly not the case. Warming is happening - how it affects specific regions is complicated.

Last updated on 10 July 2013 by mattking.
By:
AFL
When: 19 Mar 14 20:36
Climate Myth...

Antarctica is gaining ice
"[Ice] is expanding in much of Antarctica, contrary to the widespread public belief that global warming is melting the continental ice cap." (Greg Roberts, The Australian)


What the Science Says

Antarctica is a continent with 98% of the land covered by ice, and is surrounded by ocean that has much of its surface covered by seasonal sea ice. Reporting on Antarctic ice often fails to recognise the fundamental difference between sea ice and land ice. Antarctic land ice is the ice which has accumulated over thousands of years on the Antarctica landmass through snowfall. This land ice therefore is actually stored ocean water that once evaporated and then fell as precipitation on the land. Antarctic sea ice is entirely different as it is ice which forms in salt water during the winter and almost entirely melts again in the summer.

Importantly, when land ice melts and flows into the oceans global sea levels rise on average; when sea ice melts sea levels do not change measurably but other parts of the climate system are affected, like increased absorbtion of solar energy by the darker oceans.

To summarize the situation with Antarctic ice trends:

    Antarctic land ice is decreasing at an accelerating rate
    Antarctic sea ice is increasing despite the warming Southern Ocean

Antarctic Land Ice is decreasing

Measuring changes in Antarctic land ice mass has been a difficult process due to the ice sheet's massive size and complexity. However, since the 1990s satellites have been launched that allow us to measure those changes. There are three entirely different approaches, and they all agree within their measurement uncertainties. The most recent estimate of land ice change that combines estimates from these three approaches reported (Shepherd and others, 2012) that between 1992 and 2011, the Antarctic Ice Sheets overall lost 1350 giga-tonnes (Gt) or 1,350,000,000,000 tonnes into the oceans, at an average rate of 70 Gt per year (Gt/yr). Because a reduction in mass of 360 Gt/year represents an annual global-average sea level rise of 1 mm, these estimates equate to an increase in global-average sea levels by 0.19 mm/yr, or 1.9 mm per decade. Together with the land ice loss from Greenland, this represents about 30% of the observed global-average sea level rise over this period.

Examining how this change is spread over time (Figure 1) reveals that the ice sheet as a whole was not losing or gaining ice in the early 1990s. Since then ice loss has begun, and is clearly seen to have accelerated during that time:

Shepherd et al. 2012

Figure 1: Estimates of total Antarctic land ice changes (bottom) and regions within it (top) and approximate sea level contributions using a combination of several different measurement techniques (Shepherd and others, 2012). Shaded areas represent the estimate uncertainty (1-sigma).

The satellite mission that is best suited to measuring land ice mass change is the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). The GRACE satellites measure changes in Earth's gravity and these can be directly related to surface mass variations such as the Antarctic ice sheet. Recent GRACE estimates of mass change show the dramatic mass loss in West Antarctica and mass gain in East Antarctica (King and others, 2012):

King and others, 2012
Figure 2: a, GRACE estimate of ice-mass change (2002-2012), with ice drainage basins numbered (boldface italics where trends are statistically different to zero with 95% confidence). b, c, Basin-specific lower and upper bounds on ice-mass change, respectively, reflecting the potential systematic error in the basin estimates (King and others, 2012).

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is growing slightly over satellite period (Figures 1&2) but not enough to offset the other losses. It is not yet clear if the increase in mass in Antarctica is a short-term phenomena due to a particularly snowy period (Boening and others, 2012) or if it is a long-term trend. Increased snowfall in East Antarctica has long been predicted in a warming climate, so this is an important region to continue monitoring.

The land ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is not due to surface melting, as the summer temperatures in Antarctica are generally always below freezing, and measured changes in precipitation cannot explain it either. Instead, the melting is occuring due to warm ocean water melting the land ice around its edges, resulting in a spreading of this ice loss inland:

Pritchard and others, 2012

Figure 3: Rates of lowering of land ice and its floating extensions in West Antarctica, 2003–2008 (Pritchard and others, 2012). Floating extensions of the land ice (ice shelves) that are labelled are Venable (V), Abbott (A), Cosgrove (C), Pine Island (PI), Thwaites (TH), Crosson (CR), Dotson (D), Getz (G), De Vicq (DV), Land (L), Nickerson (N) and Sulzberger (SZ). Arrows highlight areas of slow-flowing, grounded ice. Bathymetry landward of the continental-shelf break is in greyscale. The divide between floating and grounded ice is shown in white. The inset shows the location of the figure (green box) overlaid on the outline of Antarctica.

The influx in warm water onto the continental shelf in this region is not entirely understood but is probably at least partly linked to increased westerly winds that have occured as a result of reduced stratospheric ozone levels since the mid-20th Century (Gillet 2003, Thompson 2002, Turner 2009).

The Antarctic ice sheet plays an important role in the total contribution to sea level. That contribution is continuously and rapidly growing.
By:
AFL
When: 19 Mar 14 20:56
Is there a scientific consensus on global warming?



What the Skeptics say
       
There is no consensus

The Petition Project features over 31,000 scientists signing the petition stating "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide will, in the forseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere ...". (Petition Project)

What the Science says...

97% of climate experts agree humans are causing global warming.


Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing.  When a question is first asked – like ‘what would happen if we put a load more CO2 in the atmosphere?’ – there may be many hypotheses about cause and effect. Over a period of time, each idea is tested and retested – the processes of the scientific method – because all scientists know that reputation and kudos go to those who find the right answer (and everyone else becomes an irrelevant footnote in the history of science).  Nearly all hypotheses will fall by the wayside during this testing period, because only one is going to answer the question properly, without leaving all kinds of odd dangling bits that don’t quite add up. Bad theories are usually rather untidy.

But the testing period must come to an end. Gradually, the focus of investigation narrows down to those avenues that continue to make sense, that still add up, and quite often a good theory will reveal additional answers, or make powerful predictions, that add substance to the theory.

So a consensus in science is different from a political one. There is no vote. Scientists just give up arguing because the sheer weight of consistent evidence is too compelling, the tide too strong to swim against any longer. Scientists change their minds on the basis of the evidence, and a consensus emerges over time. Not only do scientists stop arguing, they also start relying on each other's work. All science depends on that which precedes it, and when one scientist builds on the work of another, he acknowledges the work of others through citations. The work that forms the foundation of climate change science is cited with great frequency by many other scientists, demonstrating that the theory is widely accepted - and relied upon.

In the scientific field of climate studies – which is informed by many different disciplines – the consensus is demonstrated by the number of scientists who have stopped arguing about what is causing climate change – and that’s nearly all of them.  A survey of 928 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subject 'global climate change' published between 1993 and 2003 shows that not a single paper rejected the consensus position that global warming is man caused (Oreskes 2004).

A follow-up study by the Skeptical Science team of over 12,000 peer-reviewed abstracts on the subjects of 'global warming' and 'global climate change' published between 1991 and 2011 found that of the papers taking a position on the cause of global warming, over 97% agreed that humans are causing it (Cook 2013).  The scientific authors of the papers were also contacted and asked to rate their own papers, and again over 97% whose papers took a position on the cause said humans are causing global warming.

consensus pie chart

Lead author John Cook created a short video abstract summarizing the study:

Several studies have confirmed that “...the debate on the authenticity of global warming and the role played by human activity is largely nonexistent among those who understand the nuances and scientific basis of long-term climate processes”. (Doran 2009). In other words, more than 97% of scientists working in the disciplines contributing to studies of our climate, accept that climate change is almost certainly being caused by human activities.

We should also consider official scientific bodies and what they think about climate change. There are no national or major scientific institutions anywhere in the world that dispute the theory of anthropogenic climate change. Not one.

In the field of climate science, the consensus is unequivocal: human activities are causing climate change.
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