Labor's fall from grace
Paul Kelly, Editor-at-large
From: The Australian December 22, 2010

THE party must ask why one in five of its supporters has defected in three years.

THIS year affirms a structural change in Australian politics as Labor's primary vote has fallen and flattened at 34-35 per cent with the party more hostage than ever to the Greens to stay in office.

The pivotal question for Julia Gillard is whether she can revive Labor's primary vote and its political authority, or whether she entrenches a diminished model of Labor governance in power sharing with the Greens. Amid the furious contradictions of pundits, this is the key to Gillard's future.

The extent and rapidity of Labor's core vote decline is stark. At the 2007 election Kevin Rudd won 43.4 per cent of the primary vote. At this year's election under Gillard this fell to 38 per cent. Newspoll shows the average Labor primary vote during the past four months at 34.3 per cent. Welcome to the new paradigm.

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This fall in an exact three-year period is 9.1 points, a defection of one in five voters. It has damaged Labor's brand on a scale never considered possible at the time of Rudd's stunning victory over John Howard. This is accentuated by Labor's attrition in state politics where it has lost office in Victoria, remains unpopular in Queensland, and in NSW, with 24 per cent of the primary vote, faces a wipeout of unprecedented dimensions next March. Beneath these figures are powerful changes in Labor culture and structure.

First, since its return to office in 2007 Labor has failed to project as a party of convincing beliefs. Second, the institutional bedrock of the party during the Hawke-Keating era, the NSW Right, imploded over the electricity privatisation issue when the party declared war on its own state government. Third, the party remains chained at an organisational level to trade unions increasingly resistant to the demands of a market-based economy, a crippling defect. Fourth, the party's left voting constituency of young voters, teachers, academics, gays, culture industry and inner-city professionals is defecting to the Greens. Fifth, Labor is in trouble in the development states of the resources boom, Western Australia and Queensland, with its primary vote during the past three months at 30 points and 34 points respectively. And sixth, in the suburbs and the regions, Labor is vulnerable to "Howard battler syndrome", with workers sceptical that the party serves their needs and aspirations.

Overall, it is a swirling, confused and unpredictable cocktail.

Newspoll chief Martin O'Shannessy sounds a warning. "Labor's primary vote is now running about four points lower than it was at the election. If we look at Victoria and South Australia, the states that polled so well for Gillard at the election, the post-election fall has been about five points."

The alarm for Gillard is that minority government may become a dead political weight for Labor at the polls. How does minority government play out? How do the voters see it?

Consultation and negotiation are fine. But the public has a refined nose for weak government and will not tolerate it. The jury remains out and Gillard knows the problem: any sign that Gillard Labor is a weak government, unable to deliver and hostage to rural independents and the Greens, will be lethal. Gillard obtained no post-election honeymoon whatsoever.

Yet there was a honeymoon effect. As Newspoll shows, it went to the Greens and "others". The Green vote lifted from 11.8 per cent at the election to 14 per cent in the past several months and the "others" increase has been stronger.

This reflects disaffection with the main parties, an ongoing theme from this year's election.

Some pundits predict the Green surge is over. They may be correct. But this cannot gainsay the leap in the Green vote to a level that transcends other tribal parties of the post-war era, the Democratic Labor Party and One Nation. The Greens are different from these parties and their effect will be more enduring.

The DLP was a gift for the Coalition: it stole primary voters from Labor and preferenced the Coalition. One Nation was a minor net gain to Labor: it stole more primary votes from the Coalition than it returned in preferences.

The Greens, however, attack the Labor primary vote, weakening its base, and by preferencing Labor at almost 80 per cent achieve a leverage over Labor by making its incumbency hostage to Green support. The more Labor's primary vote falls, the more Labor is dependent on the Greens. It is an iron law of politics.

Newspolls since the election prove that Australia remains an evenly divided nation. The split between the Gillard-led centre-left forces and the Tony Abbott-led centre-right forces remains the same with a 50-50 two-party-preferred vote. It is a remarkable and unusual outcome giving heart to both sides.

The post-election fall in Labor's primary vote has gone to Greens and "others", not the Coalition. The good news for Abbott is that he still sits on half the vote. His failure to form a government has triggered neither a slide in Coalition support nor reopened internal Liberal Party divisions. The question is whether he can convert ongoing disillusion with Labor into a higher primary vote or whether he has hit a ceiling.

O'Shannessy says: "Abbott is not facing the strongest government in the world. But, since the election, he hasn't been able to win people from the other side."

The test is whether Abbott can convert those voters who have left Labor to shift from uncommitted to the Coalition. From December last year Abbott's genius was missed by the pundits. This was his ability to ignite the conservative base. Now he needs to pass another test. Beyond the conservative base, he must persuade another batch of voters to shift from left to right.

Abbott's tactics are correct. He wants to ensure that a troubled Labor government remains the issue. Demands from the media that he produce a new policy framework six months from the last election are utter nonsense written by the ALP. He won't be mug enough to fall for this.

Down the track, however, Abbott needs to ensure his appeal to the mainstream vote. Women remain a problem for him. Newspoll shows a distinct bias by women against the Abbott-led Coalition that needs to be confronted.

In the Labor-Green contest on the left of politics the climate change issue will be decisive. If Gillard can legislate a carbon price next year then Labor will regain its environmental credentials. The conundrum, however, is that she needs Green votes to achieve this.

There is one certainty: Labor will sink or swim with Gillard. There is no alternative leader. The caucus knows this. Given the Rudd experience, assassination of another leader would be an act of political suicide. One of Gillard's great qualities is her courage and tenacity. It is Labor's best hope.

Right on AP.

I'm really looking forward to Gillard Labor's pitch and implementation of this great big new tax on everything.

And another election promise broken.

She went into the last election vowing to not implement a tax on carbon and to "move forward" on renewable energy and a multitude of other clean energy initiatives - its now tax or nothing.

Can't say I'm surprised.  More of the same from the ALP.

As again, the electorate by the time the next election rolls around will be out with baseball bats.

As Paul Kelly notes in his opinion piece in The Oz, Australian's aren't fans of soft, weak and leaderless governments.

Again, I believe this government is in big strife.  Electorally speaking.

Yes, so would I.

The Kiwi's already have it over us in terms of betting in-play on sport.

Think we need a more pragmatic approach to federal gambling laws - and a more measured and funded harm minimisation strategy.

Prohibition certainly not the silver bullet.

Good luck with that one AFL - apparently anything that happened pre Labor is irrelevant [smiley:crazy]

I'd still like to know if people think the cost of living wouldn't be rising under Liberal governments?  I'm guessing now that we have a Liberal one here in Victoria we will be safe, no price rises to occur


Mind you, people living in NSW have got an early Christmas present with KK proroguing parliament - stale isn't a fair description of how bad they are, major worry is the people of NSW will give O'Farrell too big a majority though and it goes to his head

[;)]

Honestly boys, your sinking the new fkn lows.

The time has come to stop debating the Howard Years - the government got beat - amongst much fanfare in 2007.

Again, why aren't the members of the government using your excuses/nonsense/spin?

Because its completely fkn IRRELEVANT and FARCICAL.

I can see the woefully weighted argument you try to make AFL - but its really clutching at straws mate.  Honestly.

Haven't heard much of this argument in the public arena.
Think you'll find there's a reason for that.

Again, because its a fanciful and weak argument - I mean yes the boundaries were re-defined that was part of the policy.

Bottom line remains: fewer people make the deadly journey to Australia in leaky boats and many of our detention centres were closed due to lack of numbers.

To suggest on a technicality there were numbers not counted is just nonsense.  Truly.

The UNHCR estimates that 1600 people were diverted to the excluded ex- Australian Territory locations thus not being counted as Asylum Seekers or Boat people  but hard numbers are difficult to come by.

Yet we know that SIEV(s) 5,7,11 and 12 in 2002 attempted to make the journey and were returned to Indonesia while SIEV(s) 4,6 and 10 actually sank.

That was in very late 2001 through late 2002.

In 2003 we know that boats were still attempting to make the voyage such as SIEV 14, but were again towed back from whence they came.

What the 1600 figure doesn’t take into account are the numbers that attempted the voyage but were turned back – nor those that sank or were suspected of being lost at sea.

By: AFL

The LIBS say that having soft border control and soft treatment of asylum seekers is driving more and more of these people to our shores.


ERRRR SO DO THE ACTUAL PEOPLE SMUGGLERS.so do the asylum seekers.Did you not see the ABC { a pro labor station ] show where a number of people smugglers in various locations as well as people waiting to be smuggled said "kevin rudd makes it easy to come "

Further the "howard years" policies are irrelevant to deal with the current situation. THinking howards policies were bad  does not axiomatically made Gilliards policy good.

What occurred in 2003 does not help the recently drowned kids  off christmas island.

Your thinking AFL is more concerned with scoring polital points against the libs rather than DEALING with the problems.Thats the exact same way Gillard and co think and behave.Thats exactly why the  boats keep coming, its why the  pink batts  situation got out of control.Its why the broadband build is being forced on us and it why we will have a carbon tax forced on us  WITHOUT  reducing emissions or increasing renwables.

Labor in its current   version is an unmitigated disaster for this country at every level.What the libs stand for or what they did 7 years ago does not change this fact.

In effect they are saying that the millions of refugees in the world are motivated by moving to the Countries with soft border controls. When in truth they are forced by the push factors to seek refuge in any country that gives them sanctuary.

highest fuel prices of the year..merry christmas and fk you oil companies!! [>o]

i'd suggest a new thread for a new year Jez but will go with the flow

Merry Christmas All - have a wonderful break if you're having one, just be careful of excess emissions at the dinner table [;)]

What rot, wombleoz.

I've criticised Labor governments when they have repeatedly turned to reviews and committees (again, I say REPEATEDLY) as a way of bandaiding or flobbing off an issue.  I'll continue to criticise any government that makes this habit.

The Rudd-Gillard Government a prime example.

Ted is the leader of a fresh new government - wanting to get Victoria moving again, after 11 years of wasteful, debt-laden and botchful Labor.

I think considering this is an accounting audit of the project and its operation - I doubt it falls under committee or review - your clutching at straws and using this desperate to take a swipe at a very young government.

I think its the right call.  It would be foolish to make hasty decision on this, considering its a completely FKD Labor project.....I mean, god knows what they will find deep within this billion dollar shamozzle.

LOL happy new year Jez, will start 2011 thread in a minute or two

It is broke, fix it is what I'm saying - don't scrap something that mostly works

Seven steps to pave way for Abbott PM
Peter van Onselen, Contributing editor
From: The Australian January 01, 2011 12:00AM

TONY Abbott exceeded expectations in 2010, not only by almost defeating Labor at the election but with the discipline he displayed throughout the year. The prevailing wisdom was that Abbott's discipline would at some point fade, and he would expose for public view a radical conservative agenda behind his leadership.

Instead Abbott immediately grew into the leadership role he unexpectedly seized in late 2009 when Malcolm Turnbull's leadership collapsed, understanding that once leader of the party he needed to tone down parts of his historical agenda to ensure that he appealed across the party.

But 2011 is a new year, and there are no guarantees that the same approach will succeed. Below are key things Abbott must do this year if he wants to maintain the momentum he built up in 2010, and even build on it in order to defeat Labor at the next poll.

1. Abbott must develop a clear set of alternative policies and ideological objectives. The mantra that the Coalition at least isn't Labor may not be enough to sustain the opposition during another round of wilderness years, especially if Julia Gillard manages to find her way. Voters want to cast a ballot for hope, not out of fear. At the moment they fear Labor can't do a competent job of governing, and Abbott's ferocious attacks help feed that impression.

It would be useful for the opposition to also build an alternative vision for the future. Apart from anything else it would help repel Labor's attacks that conservatives are political dinosaurs.

2. The Liberal Party must professionalise so that Labor cannot successfully sandbag key marginal seats. The campaign out of NSW at the last election was dreadful. Labor held seats such as Lindsay, Banks and Robertson, where Liberal postal vote applications were thin on the ground.

Part of harmonising the Liberal Party's campaign unit should include moving Victorian state director Tony Nutt into the federal sphere. Brian Loughnane has now presided over three federal election campaigns, arguably two too many. It is time to turn to a proven winner. Nutt guided the Liberal Party to an unlikely state victory in the home state of Robert Menzies, and before that he spent years outmanoeuvring Labor as part of John Howard's senior staff.

3. Demolishing the National Broadband Network is all important, but the way it is done is crucial. Liberals can't simply hope to ride to victory by turning it into another Building the Education Revolution cost blow-out, or a pink-batts style disaster.

The NBN needs to be demolished in the context of an alternative policy to modernise the nation with broadband. That was the opposition's problem at the election: it didn't sell its alternative.

Turnbull has the capacity to develop a more cost-effective alternative that rolls out fibre to key infrastructure points and lets wireless technology take over from there.

Such a scheme properly sold could convince voters that they get the best of what Labor's scheme offers (such as fast broadband for operations in rural hospitals) at a fraction of the cost. But it would still be expensive, so the Coalition's expenditure review committee must budget for it.

4. Abbott must get more out of his shadow ministers. Oppositions often lose elections because the government successfully paints them as devoid of talent.

For all the limited attention paid by the Coalition to renewing its ranks during the last parliamentary term, it managed to bring in quality MPs such as Kelly

O'Dwyer, Paul Fletcher and Josh Freydenburg. All three are ministers in waiting. But the front bench includes a range of talented individuals who must use this term to help Abbott push the Coalition's cause if it is to get back into power, rather than positioning for their own future ambitions.

Abbott is blessed with a large number of former ministers in his shadow ministerial ranks, and a good number of them aren't all that old. The balance of the line-up is generally strong on paper; they just need to be given more responsibility by the leader's office to press the Coalition's cause.

5. More women in the Coalition's ranks as preselections come around is vital. Labor significantly outperforms the conservatives when it comes to getting women into parliament. That's because Labor has a quota system.

Liberals won't tolerate quotas, so Abbott must use his political capital to support female candidates. It would boost his stocks with female voters who remain wary about him as prime minister.

6. Spending time campaigning in the non-mining states that didn't move support away from Labor at the last election will be important for Abbott. He won seats in NSW, Queensland and WA, but not in South Australia or Tasmania, and he went backwards in Gillard's home state of Victoria.

Abbott can't neglect Queensland, lest the anti-Labor vote inspired by Kevin Rudd's removal comes back, and he needs to be wary of NSW voters returning to Labor once they punish the state ALP government in March.

But if Abbott can trust his campaign team to hold the line in these states, there is a large number of seats in the non-mining states that should be able to be won back with a positive Liberal agenda, and once they get used to the idea that Abbott is a viable alternative PM.

7. The final challenge is the most difficult. Abbott needs to resolve the differences among senior colleagues in his ranks. It is a viper pit at the top of the shadow ministerial tree. Joe Hockey and Andrew Robb loathe each other. Julie Bishop and Ian Macfarlane don't feel all that differently about one another. Turnbull continues to be viewed with caution by colleagues who can't believe he would be happy to serve under Abbott as prime minister.

These differences can be papered over while Labor remains a mess. But if the government finds form in 2011 opposition disunity will hit the headlines. Abbott should try to address the dysfunction while he has the authority to do so and before doing so creates its own headlines. The summer months are the perfect time.

The Liberals need to learn the lessons of history. After the 1998 election the Howard government was shattered: it had lost most of its majority, scraped home at the election with less than 50 per cent of the vote, and faced the prospect of the very thing it fought the election over (the GST) being defeated in the Senate.

Howard spent most of the term looking like a spent force and Kim Beazley deliberately rolled up into a ball and refused to release policies or reform dysfunction in the Labor Party. When Howard's political fortunes changed the opposition was unable to react because it had not done the preparation.

Abbott, if he wants to be prime minister, must not make the same mistake.

Happy New Year Mrben - no Qld election this year so there goes that prediction

as to Jez, I'll only be posting on the new thread from now

Yeah ... we're opposites alright. I like having a red under my bed and a green partner in my bed!

At the last Federal election, the order I voted on my ticket was:

1. Secular
2. Green
3. ALP
4. Communist
5. Independent
6. Independent
7. Liberal

TQ

I met my Mrs at a Liberal function.

C'mon lads, can't let this thread die a few posts before 1600.

Plus the thread title has such an appropriate ring to it.