Grand National
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2019 Grand National
2019 Grand National
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Replies: 131
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Yeah Rydal, I hadn’t realised myself, it was his comment today that gave me the heads up. Still like him though, and I’ll keep an eye on the future entries....
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I think that they entered the Leinster National last year to get him qualified. They may do the same again, or go for the Daily Mirror Chase at Down Royal (it's usually easy to get a first 4 place in that - only 4 ran last year!))
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Anyone staying in Southport again this year?
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Apart from Tea For Two the other one to catch attention is the scoundrel that is Singlefarmpayment.
There is a very big staying prize in this hoss. |
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I think Minella Rocco has a decent chance in this and is overpriced @33's when he was around top weight in previous seasons he was one of the antepost faves. He seems to be a forgotton horse he's still only 9. I watched him in the paddock before his comeback run at Chelt and he didn't look fit so wasn't surprised with the poor run. He is being trained to peak for this race only this year. This is a horse who finished 2nd in a gold cup, beat Native River over 4 miles at the festvial, versatile ground wise I reckon he is being laid out for this.
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My three at this stage would be:
One for Arthur 46s (about to run a big race at Haydock until unseating - nicely in with 10.10 - price is too big given his win 2 years ago)) Mall Dini 36s (Looks laid out for it and has some class) Minella Rocco 33s (if good ground) |
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Mall Dini
Looks like he should improve for the trip, a bit wary of his hold up style but has a great weight and the class to win this. Abolitionist 3rd in the Irish national and to me it looks like the owner has just sent the horse to Dr newland with the sole intention of having an crack at the national. Irish national form can work out well at aintree and aside from that there is no telling if Dr Newland has eeked out any improvement since he was impressive on his sole start for him. It's took my eye that he is entered in a grade 1 this weekend and any sort of decent run there will have his price tumbling. Rathvinden Certainly stays and will relish the trip. Has a touch of class about him but would like to see him run this season before backing him. |
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backed Abolitionist 40 on here, 33/1 e/w with bookmakers.
can't run in the ascot chase saturday, because of the flu vaccination situation, possible targets are the kim muir or a veterans chase at newbury. number 59 on the list, so hopefully will get in, dr newland knows how to win the race, and this horse might be better than pineau de re. |
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Many appeal but Blow By Blow and Exitas are interesting at 100/1 .
Exitas is better than ever this season and is quite nicely weighted . If you cherrypick his form you could even say very well treated . The problems being that he is likely to need good ground to allow him to get home and that he is not certain to get in . Owned by Gigginstown Blow By Blow will get in if he is good enough . Well weighted , has Spring form and can be turned on and off like a bedside lamp . Ground shouldn't be a problem either and he works left handed . True his form can be crabbed but at 100/1 he is value for a speculative punt . Some Neck comes into the reckoning by virtue of the above but I prefer Gordon's horse . |
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missed approach out injured.
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Real shame about Missed Approach
 Other scratchings.... Auvergnat The Dutchman Rogue Angel Lieutenant Colonel Skipthecuddles Acapella Bourgeois Allysson Monterg Callet Mad Jarob Westerner Point Ballyarthur |
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Nice run from Pairofbrowneyes to take the Leinster National, and resolve the qualification issue at the same time.
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I was happy with that Rydal, fingers crossed he gets there now.
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Tiger Roll ran another stonking race running away from his rivals without seemingly breaking sweat - just awesome; he's running even better than last season before winning here.
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It was a staggering win.
More weight and he won't get away belting one like he did last year four or five fences out . Stats say horses don't win more than once and the last 10 winners won on their first attempt at the race. Tea For Two was just moving up when he unseated , he will be happier over conventional fences. |
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Not quite sure what the fascination is with Tea For Two. I know it's shown some sort of form occasionally in small field conditions races( a while back now) but doesn't really fit the profile for a big field handicap.
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I think firstly the price , secondly the National looks like a long term plan , thirdly it was going awfully well till the stumble and in addition it has dropped a lot in the weights .It rarely runs in big fields granted , but when you were off 164 it wasnt easy .
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It's all opinions really I as I didn't consider it to be going awfully well and it was a long way from home. Being well in at the weights with a few of that field I would have wanted it to be able to lay up with the pace a lot easier. As far as I can see it's only run in two handicap chases and been beat quite comprehensively, one of the times on a lower rating (allowing for the jockey allowance)than what it has now. It reminds me very much of Double Shuffle who obtained a fluke rating by virtue of one run. I'm not however saying it can't win but for me it just doesn't have the right profile.
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Cheltenham has thrown up 4 serious contenders eg Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly, Vintage Clouds and Elegant Express. Both 'sly and 365' are nrnb.
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Along with Rathvinden and Mal Dini these 6 are the favs.
Interesting runner tomorrow is Ms Pavios Sixth in the Hennessey , travelled superbly until tiring in the straight. Not run since , expect it to win and shorten up tomorrow. |
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Next forfeit stage Tuesday 19th March 12pm
Fine effort from Ms Parfois yesterday,giving weight to an improving stayer,she jumped superbly and battled all the way to the line. Three weeks to get over that would be the question,I was half expecting an educational run following that lengthy absence.She has a lovely racing weight as things stand,would appear to need soft conditions to shine,just how forward she was is guesswork,very likeable mare. NTD holds the weight card with BDM,he has another couple entered on decent looking marks,be interesting to see if he does run the grey. Pairofbrowneyes does look interesting,10-02 also looks appealing,currently 49th on the list. Elliot has 11 in the top 40 as we stand,with a few more waiting in the wings depending how many above withdraw,not sure where I stand with that,quite remarkable if they all run. Had one in mind for this for the best part 12 months,has an entry,still not convinced this will be the plan,hang on to him for a bit until plans are clearer. |
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I would imagine Ballyoptic will be NTD main hope assuming it's ok. Has had a sight of the fences and I know it fell but it appeared to have what I call a soft fall and had jumped well up to then. One horse that interests me is Noble Endeavor who seemed to have an easy race at Cheltenham and was gradually making late progress until stopped after the last by a faller. Will know Tuesday anyway if that is the case or perhaps it's not as good as it used to be.
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Does anyone know how Abolitionist came out of the Cheltenham run over hurdles
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I don't know but I would struggle to fancy him after the last 2 runs, definitely an interesting one before the run the other day but I would have doubts about them even entering now. They interviewed the Doctor at Cheltenham before the run and it seemed to be he was suggesting that they were looking for something like the prep run Pineau de Re had, otherwise they may not run
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yes but strange tactics to make the running at that pace
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Tiger Roll has an excellent chance of becoming one of half a dozen horses that have won back to back Grand Nationals.
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Not much is being said about Pleasant Company this year, can't quite understand why he is 6 times the price of Tiger Roll, he even gets a couple more pounds from him this year.
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Cant help but feel like Tiger Roll is a silly price now. Yes he won at Cheltenham but the race was really poor. He was clinging on last year and given a brilliant ride he now has extra weight to carry. The record of national horses coming back is awful as well. I love the horse and backed him at 50/1 to win this last year but there's no way he is winning it back to back as much as it would be a great sight.
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81 left in after today's forfeit stage, taken out
elegant escape,sizing sodelco,royal vacation,black corton,give me a copper,edwulf,american,traffic fluid,total recall,master dee,the last sumari,some neck,willie boy,ballydine,ballyhill and back to the thatch. |
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I did say Elegant Escape was a very doubtful runner.
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EE has been withdrawn despite Tizzard senior stated "he ran an excellent Grand National trial in the Gold Cup". Well, a stab in the back for backers taking his word as gospel. As usual the market indicated he could be doubtful given the excessive generous prices on offer.
If the running of Tiger Roll in the X-country and Boyne Hurdle are repeated here he'd start even shorter than the present 4/1, and a repeat of last year highly probable, all things being equal, in my opinion; he's been sensational so far. |
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Tiger Roll seems to have the perfect jumping style for Grand National, no extravagant jumps, brush through the fluff on the top half of fence, how did he get round last year?
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Vintage Clouds struggling to get in ......again.
Tea For Two , Magic Of Light , Lake View Lad , Ms Parfois , Ramses De Teillee and The Storyteller my 6 against the field at this time. |
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Vintage Clouds is sure to get in already no.45 on racecard.
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I think Vintage Clouds is a near certainty to be given a slot. He's 45th, but 3 above him have been downgraded thus he's 42nd; Elliot has a few entered, and with the Irish National in mind eg Outlander and A Toi Phil I think would be non-runners for me; Valtor for Hendo is another unlikely one.
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Question can you offset lays on the race
if they are in the top 40,or is it seperate lays still? cheers. |
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I don't think you are correct regarding Vintage Clouds. He is 45th on 10st. The 44th horse is on 10-1 and will not come after Vintage as the original weights can't be altered. It's only where 2 or more horses are on the same weight vying for the last position whereby a pecking order comes into operation based on performances after the weights are issued.
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I'm only quoting Martin Greenwood, the official handicapper, on Sportinglife.
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I think you will find it is as I've stated, which is how it's always been. You're not going to get a horse with a lower rating taking the place of one with a higher one once the weights have come out. Carole's Destrier would be number 50 now if that was the case.
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I've actually read what you are talking about but he was talking about horses who are on the same rating but have since dropped. Here are his actual word; " As things stand, Vintage Clouds needs five horses above him to come out to get a run in the Randox Health Grand National. There are currently five horses on a rating of 144, but three of those have already dropped in the ratings which will work in Vintage Clouds' favour".
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