No , he needs 5 to drop out at the moment. The horse at 44 (Abolitionist) is rated 145 not 144. Of the 5 horses rated 144 Vintage Clouds takes precedence because he was raised to 149 after Cheltenham which puts him on a higher rating than the other 4 on 144.If he hadn't been raised or the others lowered since the weights came out there would be a ballot if there were less than 40 horses with a rating 145 or above. I think what he is also saying is that 3 of the horses on 144 have had their rating lowered since the weights came out.

Thanks. 5 to drop out? I think that is a probability given the multi entries from several Irish trainers eg Elliot and Mullins, and the proximity of the Irish National.

Tiger Roll is far too short and I'll explain why I think so. I like the horse and wouldn't begrudge him the win but think he is a lay at the price.

He is running off 159 and is very likely to be carrying 11st 5lb, the last two horses to win at around this mark were Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds. Both of these were high end grade 2 performers who could be very competitive in the right grade 1 chases. Tiger roll for me doesn't have the same chase form as these two did. Secondly the ground was good on both of these occasions and I know he won the triumph on good ground (although the time suggests it may have been slower than good but for me he has better form in soft conditions. If the ground is soft then he has an almighty task on his hands. Anibale Fly placed from a similar mark last year and that horse is classy enough to place in two gold cups. Would Tiger Roll manage that? I suspect not as otherwise he would be entered.

Another factor to think about is that if the ground does turn soft there are more threats from the bottom of the handicap than there were last year. I believe Vintage Clouds, Ms Parfois and Mall Dini would all be dangerous from their welter weights in soft ground.

The long range weather forecast doesn't particularly suggest soft ground but as I've mentioned on other threads Rathvinden looks bomb proof to me. He handles both soft and good ground. I don't see any classy horses near the top of the weights who would relish good ground and the distance. He's the one I keep coming back to and I think he has less dangers on good ground than he would on soft ground.

Ms Parfois is a great bet NRNB 25/1 based on the assumption she'd only run if it was soft (dangerous to make assumptions I know). I thought she travelled and jumped beautifully last time out carrying 11 stone 4lb. Would carry over a stone less here and slightly less testing conditions would be a bonus.

Apairofbrowneyes would be one to consider on soft ground too.

I've already backed

Rathvinden going to double aftertime because when I checked I did the billy boost and actually got 36/1
Abolotionist 33/1 - Don't really fancy him anymore after his last two runs. Given that Dr Newland was very patient and careful to make sure he made the national in one piece I thought he may have more to offer but we haven't seen it yet if he has.
Mall Dini 20/1 NRNB - Kim Muir form often works out well in the National. Has been given a few quiet rides and I fancy him to stay.
Ms Parfois 25 NRNB - Think he chances hinge on soft ground would have a great chance if it is soft. Hope she is withdrawn if it's not soft.

If indeed it turns out to be soft ground I will probably add vintage clouds and apairofbrowneyes if I can still get 20/1 or above.

On good ground Rathviden and Mall Dini will be enough for me.

wouldnt swop my 25/1 tiger Roll BF for anything now so impressive this year seems to be getting better each run but in case of a possible B/Down had a little e.w Anibale Fly, only other consideration Lake View Lad if it was genuinely soft or heavy.

^^
He's 28/1 here (34 Exchange) but only 14/1 for the Irish version. Could that be indicative of his probable intention?

Brian Hughes will ride Abolitionist as STD could not commit at this stage.
He did too much in front at Cheltenham with the cheekpieces. Will be ridden with more restraint at Aintree.
Main worry is stable form

Daklondike now scratched which allows Pipe's other runner, Vieux Lion Rouge, in at number 40. Vintage Clouds now needs three to drop out.

I think Vintage Clouds will get a run, but Anibale Fly (top weight/hard Gold Cup), Warriors Tale (trainer favours Topham), Jury Duty and Pairofbrowneyes (market indicating the Irish version) would be scratched.

A horse who initially flew under my radar and I think is a massive price is Monbeg Notorious. You do have to forgive him his Irish National run but I believe his handicap win at Gowran as well as his second at punchestown are two pieces of form which suggests he is over priced. He hasn't shown his best form this year but his last run screamed of a horse who is about to peak. Being out of Milan with presenting as a damsire he certainly has a few National winners in his pedigree. I'm not entirely sure if he is ground dependent as the only time he raced on good he won a hurdle race from the very decent Moulin A vent. The front two pulled well clear that day. I think at the prices he is worth a couple of pound.

Marcus Armytage article for Telegraph writes Mullins says he's picking the 5 of his who look likely to get a run, that includes Pairofbrowneyes. Also Robbie Power says he's confident he'll be fit to ride Jury Duty.

Lake View Lad is my choice, Ran very well at Cheltenham.

Lake View Lad , Vintage Clouds and Anibale Fly all put in eyecatching(or is that eycatcher) displays at the festival finishing strongly over 3 miles + at the festival.

blacklion 350 grand, twister having a double tonight, new owner of blaklion sid he,d looked at don slowly and outlander as a buy but decided against it

Abo NR was on the Racing UK website (Newland interview).....

Catch Me ifyoucan    31 Jan 19 12:56 
£100,000.00 sterling - thought it was alot more ?




:15 Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase 4m 2f 74y
(Grade 3) (Class 1) £1,000,000 added
Winner £500,000 2nd £200,000 3rd £100,000 4th £65,000

I'd expect Bristol De Mai, Alpha Des Obeaux, Blaklion, Daklondike and Abolitionist to be officially scratched come 12pm tomorrow of Confirmation of Entry Stage; Valtor, Mala Beach, Shattered Love, Warriors Tale and Pairofbrowneyes, some if not all, too, I'd think.

I think Walsh would ride Rathvinden, Townend (Up For Review) and Mullins (Pleasant Company) as last year.

69 remain at 5-day stage - scratched horses are Bristol de Mai, Vieux Morvan, Abolitionist, Daklondike, Alpha des Obeaux, Ms Parfois, Blaklion, The Storyteller, Shattered Love, Polidam, Yala Enki and Sub Lieutenant. Last year's third Bless the Wings and Becher winner Walk in the Mill now guaranteed a run. Captain Redbeard at 41 as we stand.

Still half the runners from ireland
Looking at another 1234
Plenty in off low weights
And like many of the entries
Unknowns on stamina

Valseur Lido for me. In really good form of late and 66/1 looks nice.

Actually his form is horrendous but he did look like he was enjoying it last year and a stone taken off on better ground and on a going day he wont have to run much better than last year to sneak a place.