Grand National
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What a ridicules price for a race like this, and this is before Ruby is confirmed as the Jockey. While he undoubtably has a very good chance 6/1 is a silly price. What will the SP be???????
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insane innit
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Barmy. Will be bigger on the day imo.
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It be great price when he wins. Barmy taking bigger price on 30 that have no chance especially with the ground going to be soft.
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Lay, Lay, Lay
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the going is not going to be soft ffs
and nothing says he is going to win, plenty of upside in taking big prices, well in advance if you can find one that is well in, been plotted anyone taking 61 in the national is a sucker |
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i don't need take 6s cause anyone who didn't take the 33's available after last years race shouldn't back a.p
If conditions are similar and he gets a clear round he best handicapped horse. FULL STOP. the going not going to be soft? |
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no it isn't going to be soft, nearer to good
and the thread is about the 6s on offer not some after timed price that is no longer available I have him winning in my ap book but anyone taking the current price is insane |
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I don`t think it will ever be good again Jud. I think the RSPCA have seen to that.
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Attempted extreme trips twice and never finished.Got to many negatives against him for me
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My opinion now is I still rather take 6/1 on something I believe can win than any price on something that has no chance. And this year more so than any I believe you could put a line through ALOT.
I don't see the ground resembling anything close to good unless there is underground heating. |
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that's only the official going description
the actual state of the going can be quite different as seen at cheltenham |
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you've just been sucked in monksfield, it is massively over bet now and there are several that have very strong chances at much bigger prices
the going will not be soft, there is no rain really forecast and they will be considering watering |
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Have you not been informed about this Judorick?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/9944256/Aintree-bans-firm-ground-for-the-Grand-National.html Aintree has run its last fast-ground Grand National. Starting from this year’s race, on April 6, the course will be watered as a matter of routine to provide going that is never any quicker than 'good to soft’. |
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At Cheltenham the was variations due to the glue factor of the covers being on.
I will believe Aintree to be good/softn if it says so. I`m not going to start double guessing. |
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A better thread surely must be how the F k anyone could think of backing Seabass at 9's when OHO was cantering all over everything in last years race. Seabass only finished 3rd and is now 12lb higher.
So as far 6 oho, the 9s Seabass is pure and utter madness. |
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7/1 on the day may seem a fair price after the race. They have come in for the fav early this year
Hedgehunter was the last single priced winner and before that Earth Summit and then Rough Quest. I agree compared to Seabass, On His Own looks value  |
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You have to jump the fences and OHO remains woefully inexperienced. He fell 2nd Beechers so still had well over a mile to go so does not remotely prove he gets the trip however well you believe he was going.
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Attempted extreme trips twice and never finished.Got to many negatives against him for me
At Cheltenham in the 2011 at the Festival he jumped krap in the 4 miler, but he has improved more 2 stone since then and everything points to him being a real staying type. However he last won a chase on a mark of 125 and his hike to 148 has to be proved with in his ability but he physically looks like a real National horse. |
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i think he was trained by a farmer in 2011 also.
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As far as I am concerned On His Own is the most likely winner of the national. But the price of 6/1 is insane to be taking a week and half beforehand. He's certianly going to be no shorter on the day and he must go out to at least 8's before the race goes off. Wait for the gamble on sunnyhillboy when McCoy is confirmed to ride and Teaforthree will most likely come in for lots of support too.
The strength in depth to the national this year does look surprisingly poor to me. Last year I can remember having a shortlist of about 6-7 horses at this time for the race but for this years race I've only got 3 and even 2 of them I have some little doubts with. |
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Fair comment AG,he has jumped up the weights and he has only had 7 chase starts,which is extemely off putting considering the fewest number of a winner in recent years was 9(miinnehomma 1994)
Having said that i'm also a believer that stats do not win races,Neptune Collonges(1st grey since 1961 ?),Mon mome(1st French bred for 100 years?). It is very hard to get away from the way OHO travelled off the same mark last year,i wouldn't put anyone off on that score. He has obviously got a lot of ability and has the Vimy(5th gen)/Wild Risk(7th gen)(sires side)connection in his breeding |
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wild risk (6th gen)
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Last years winner Neptune Collonges had Vimy(6th gen)/wild risk(7th gen)on his dams side,making him the ninth winner from the last 10 runnings to have Wild risk in his last seven generations.
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There are 17 with that breeding connection at the moment,one of which beshebar is a non runner.
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247, you have to look at reasons behind stats and there is a very good reason for wanting experience in this race. Being French bred makes it less likely to stay but just means less horses of that breeding will stay not all of them, Irish bred horses certainly have an excellent record in the race and I'd see as a plus. Being grey is of course a nonsense stat as I'm sure you know :) But needing experience, surely that is not just desirable but vital?
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Lol,agree,the grey/French bred stats dont mean a lot.
You will probably find that 90% or more of the horses that ran were not grey or French bred anyway,so theyre obviously not going to win it that often. Sort of agree on the experience thing but its not carved in stone,i mean common sense tells you that experience should be a big plus. But having said that,general changes to the race conditions are making it possible for that "number of chases ran in" another stat to bite the dust. |
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I wouldn't discount anything on lack of experience,provided a decent pilot was on board.
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He certainly has a big engine and physically strides out like a National horse but he can be oddly awkward at his fences and for him to jump soundly over 30 fences including twice at Becher`s is not my idea of a 6/1 or 7/1 shot.
Hedgehunter won at 7/1 off 144 but was a stone well in. Earth Summit won at 7/1 off 147 but was a stone well in. Rough Quest won at 7/1 off 152 but was placed in the Gold Cup and King George the same year. What does On His Own have going for him to justify being 6/1? |
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Field probably isn't as strong from a form perspective as it has been in recent years?
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I've got a feeling that experience stat will go this year. A lot of the fancied horses have to overcome it.
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Quite possible because funnily enough the ones that look to be on are the less exposed types.
Assuming What a friend and Imperial commander don't go,Weird al top weight !!!. You don't want to knock any horse,but Weird als a bit of a monkey yet he could be giving weight all round. |
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Hedgehunter won at 7/1 off 144 but was a stone well in.
Earth Summit won at 7/1 off 147 but was a stone well in. Were these facts known before the race, or is it a case we will add OHO to the list after this years race. |
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Colbert station is one I would like if he had more experience but he has already won in a big field. His sire have produced a couple of national winners in take the stand and monbeg dude.
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The weights could be.
Weird Al 11st 10lbs (monkey) Quels Esprit 11st 9lbs Big Fella Thanks 11st 8lbs (looks a non stayer) Roberto Goldback 11st 8lbs Seabass 11st 8lbs Ballabriggs 11st 6lbs Sunnyhill boy 11st 6lbs Teaforthree 11st 5lbs |
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Suppose we are looking at Quel Esprit as the class horse,beaten 25 lengths behind Sire Des Champs in the Hennessy gold cup.
If that's the case,this years race is lacking a bit of class and must leave the door wide open to an unexposed improving type. |
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Monksfield
Hedgehunter was a plot horse with numerous hurdle races used in his build up, with a chase victory in the BobbyJo Chase at Fairyhouse eased down beating a 149(giving 7lb) horse with other 140+ horses a distance further back. That gave the impression Hedgehunter was moving up and at least a 150+ horse. So it was known he was a handicap snip of such before the GN. Earth Summit was heavily supported mainly because he was so well suited by soft ground and was a Welsh National winner. It was a weak year and once the rains came you could cross off many non stayers and good ground types and basically you was only left with Earth Summit. That`s how i assessed the race at the time. However i did not expect him to later on justify a 10lb hike after the GN, but he did. On His Own is probably a plot horse with a stone in hand on his future mark. The money suggests this to me, but his jumping is more suspect than previous `plot winners`. |
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All the pointers are that Imperial Commander runs, so he will be the class horse in the race - in fact the classiest horse I can remember ever running in it!
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Fair enough if he does,very good horse at his best.
Just beaten by a horse getting 6lb that was beaten 22 lengths in this years gold cup Absolutely nothing wrong with that. |
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OHO was certainly travelling like he had a stone in hand last year when he fell.
And we know many previous fallers have come back and won. |