Yes Mullins has much to learn

Lol,love it.
Sounds very much like a layer talking up the badly priced favourite.
Yes he was travelling well last year,probably better than anything else.
But falling 2nd time round at bechers was to far out to say how he might have faired.
On the negative side is the fact hes only had 7 runs over fences,the same amount as last year.
I have stated that stats mean little,with the grey/French bred ones going up in smoke in recent years.(explained on another post)
But that said I think theres more substance to this stat,having 10 runs over fences is the generally accepted norm of recent years,Miinnehoma 9 in 1994(7th in gold cup on 8th start)and Little polveir 8 in 1989 the only ones to beat the "must have had 10" factor.
Add to that the layers making a mullins entry or ruby walsh mount favourite just about every year,i think we can be fairly clear on any value in OHO's price as related to his chance of winning.
So I think that's covered until someone can come up with stats prior to 1989 to prove this as yet another meaningless stat.

Isnt completion rate a stat?

Just what i thought ststs are only fiction based on fact

Little Polveir had had way more than 8 starts, he was a very experienced 12yo when he won and an ex Scots National winner (1987).  Think you may have been fooled by Racing Post website which only has races from start of 88/89 season on it?

Yes he ran in the National THREE times and won Scottish national before that record begins!

It wasn’t until Little Polveir’s fourth attempt at the Grand National, when he was twelve years old, that he won it in 1989. He had come ninth in 1986 and unseated his rider in the two years preceding his victory.

Bred in Co. Antrim by Cantab (who had won the Triumph Hurdle) out of Blue Speedwell, Little Polveir was named after a salmon fishing pond in Scotland. He was bought without having being raced, by trainer John Edwards on behalf of Mark Shone and entered his first race over fences in 1983 – at 40-1 in a three mile novice chase which he won by twenty lengths. However following that impressive debut he went on to demonstrate careless jumping, which meant he only managed to win one race over fences in each of his first five seasons up to 1987. The last of these races was a turning point – he won by ten lengths over four miles on heavy ground in the Scottish Grand National.

While his first two entries into the Grand National saw him give less than impressive performances, he actually did quite well in the 1988 race, at the age of eleven, where he was in the lead until the twenty-sixth where he took off too soon, landing on the fence, giving the lead to the eventual winner Rhyme ‘N’ Reason.

After finishing third in a chase at Bangor in February 1989, Little Polveir was bought by trainer Toby Balding on behalf of a Mr Harvey, who was buying a horse for his son. Sold for the price of 15,000 guineas, the exchange of trainer was slightly ironic given that Edwards had started out as Balding’s assistant.

Edwards had three runners in the 1986 National, and 1989 saw him enter six runners including Little Polveir. While he had no choice but to give up the twelve year old, his chances of winning were actually looking quite high – in his hands he had Dixton House, the 7-1 clear favourite as well as Bob Tisdall who was being ridden by John White, a jockey that had completed in all of his five previous National attempts.

Unfortunately for Edwards Dixton House fell over the first Becher’s and Bob Tisdall usurped White’s unblemished record – he had a false start, which he followed by missing the break at the re-start before clearing only one fence and then refusing to go any further.

Little Polveir on the other hand was demonstrating impeccable jumping, and with Jimmy Frost in command of the reigns they started the second circuit in the lead. Smart Tar and Durham Edition both challenged, but ultimately Smart Tar gave Little Polveir the race on a stick, when he unseated Carl Llewellyn from the saddle, becoming the loose horse who then carried Durham Edition towards the rails leaving Little Polveir to win by seven lengths from West Tip. The Thinker was a half a length behind in third.

While there was probably no consoling Edwards, at least his previous owner Mr Shone had had the foresight to back his old horse at ante-post odds of 40-1.

The stats can be subjected to leeway imo.

Take Miinnehoma for example, yes only 9 chase starts but a lightly raced 11 year old who had run respectfully in that years Gold Cup. Big after timing here but i told all my mates to pile into Miinnehoma and with the added pressure of other people(a small town word travels fast) following my tip the elation of us all watching it cruise into the lead and then be under pressure for the win was something i will never forget. Was it really 19 years ago!

Anyway yes there are times imo to relax the stats, such as this year with T43 on his last years novice stat.

Does anyone think the alterations to the fences could help the less experienced horses.
The fences looked a bit lower after being jumped over in the foxhunters

No i mean they are getting smashed lower by horses jumping them

The punters will smash into this tomorrow. I understand Mullins thinks the horse is very well handcapped.

Are Hills and Laddies really going 12/1 in the morning?

Ben Linfoot suggested it in his column but can't find any confirmation of it whatsoever.

Just SEVEN chases Shrews, is only 8 if you include his PTP so I'd class that as seven and a half!   At least he has the 3 wins but just doesn't feel like enough to me.  Unless the fences are so much softer that novices and lightly raced horses are going to start dominating, I just can't see it.  If I was faced with this field over regulation fences in say a Scottish National, I'm sure he'd be on my shortlist, in fact I'm sure he'd be my second choice and the even more lightly raced Colbert Station would be my first!

Sorry ,conquers the national after 5 chase starts

well I said it wouldn't be short as 6s but I didn't expect 12s. Got to say OHO is starting to look value now. The enhancement stuff on the day is making the ante-post market redundant when backing the favs

He was beaten before they had gone 3 miles so wouldn't put it down to the trip.  Experience failure same as the even more inexperienced Colbert Station.  Even though the fences are softer than **** now the huge field and the different look of the fences will continue to make experience necessary.