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6/1 On His Own, give over.

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Replies: 110
By:
Monksfield79
When: 27 Mar 13 21:09
A G
mullins has stated that either of his 2 main national hopes oho and pdb are better horses than hedgehunter,
people seem to forget ruby was due to ride oho last year before he got injured, he could have chose the winner if i understand correctly that he makes the choices.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 27 Mar 13 21:13
Suny Bay was on 170 when he ran in the GN.

Imperial Commander at his best was better but whether he was ever a 185 horse i doubt it. It seems the handicapper got carried away with Denmen, Kauto, Long Run and IC in one or two of those Gold Cups.

I hope he runs because he is a solid brave horse and will go well if 100%
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 27 Mar 13 21:24
Monk

I think Hedgehunter was a better horse than PDB and at 10 has probably reached his limit, but OHO could be anything but only if he jumps better.

The fact that he won that hurdles race at Navan means more than most think. It shows that the horse is improving and as a lightly raced 9 year old he really could be at least a stone well in and a better horse than Hedgehunter. The more i write about him the more i think he could win by 20L.
By:
247lol
When: 27 Mar 13 21:27
you say carried away,but Denman gave 18lb to what a friend in the hennessy and beat kauto star 7 lengths in the gold cup.
Imperial Commander beat Denman 7lengths with a grand national winner 30 lengths back in 3rd.
These horses are peaked for the big ones,forget all the other dross.
The handicapper can only rate them on what they do at the time.
Imperial Commander if he runs is obviously going to be of interest to some off 158.
But after missing the gold cup hes obviously missed work,so the where exactly is he at the moment.
Not a good preparation.
By:
247lol
When: 27 Mar 13 21:27
ignore the,lol
By:
thieveslikeus
When: 27 Mar 13 21:34
Missing the Gold Cup was a blessing in disguise for IC, he needs time between his races, check his record it is indisputable.  Sounds from reports like he is fresh and well which is how you want him - same as he was when he won the Paddy Power, the Ryanair, the Gold Cup and for his 2 Haydock runs, the one where he lost by a short nostril to Kauto Star and the one where he won.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 27 Mar 13 21:54
247lol

That`s true about the handicapper, but it does seem strange that IC reached a higher mark than Denman ever did throughout his career.
By:
The Wizard Of Oz
When: 27 Mar 13 22:21
On His Own is a short price but his competition is dwindling by the day. He is on the same mark as last year, was travelling very well and seems an improved horse all be it in a novice hurdle he ran in.

Let us look at the next 4 in the market:

Seabass (patently seemed not to stay against two finishers) is only 3 points higher (10/1) in the betting and 5lb higher than last year.

Cappa Bleu (outpaced last year but ran on through beaten horses to take 4th)is only 5 points higher at 12/1.

Colbert Station is double the price and has lots to prove and will be the subject of housewives AP support. Ted Walsh favours Seebass above this one apparently!

Chicago Grey (a plodder who will do a Cappa Bleu and run through beaten horses) is only double the price.

Whatever way you look at it, the price re On His Own is very fair at present, and a price which a week on Saturday could well look like a gift from God!
By:
Tucho
When: 28 Mar 13 00:25
They have to go 6/1 if they're offering 5 or 6 places on the race. You can't afford to rack up the each way bets on a horse like this if you are enhancing the number of places.
By:
Bindaree
When: 28 Mar 13 00:30
You are correct Rankine, 6-1 is a ridiculous price. I would want those sort of odds against any horse getting around who couldn't negotiate half of the fences last year, and don't go on about how well a horse is travelling at that stage of the National as at least 15 were travelling equally as well as is the case every year at that stage.
By:
kavvie
When: 28 Mar 13 00:55
is he six times more unlightly to win than not?if he stands up he will def fin in first four.so 6/1 is an ok price..
By:
Monksfield79
When: 28 Mar 13 08:05
Bin you not looking at same race if you think one never mind 15 were travelling as well as oho.  Ok nobody can say what would have happened. But what amazes me is how far of the pace oho was and with the dead of his ease and no effort he saunters up to the leaders. What was unfolding last year was incredible and at time I had no interest in oho, but immediately thought get to bookies the 2013 national and paddys duly obliged with 33s.
I don't have to worry bout 6s but if I had no bet I still wouldn't have problem taking the mostly 7s.
the original poster picked the lowest odds of course, the usual.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 28 Mar 13 08:38
He will be 10s or 12s on the morning of the race... the horse has not proved he is a worthy fav... he did run well in last years race, but it silly if you thought he was going to win as it was so far out.  6/1 is the most silliest price in a 40 runner field... people who back that horse now need their head tested...

1980     Ben Nevis     12     10-12     Mr Charlie Fenwick (USA)     Tim Forster     R. C. Stewart, Jr. (USA)     40/1     10m 17.4s
1981     Aldaniti     11     10-13     Bob Champion     Josh Gifford     Nick Embiricos     10/1     9m 47.2s
1982     Grittar     9     11-05     Mr Dick Saunders     Frank Gilman     Frank Gilman     7/1 F     9m 12.6s
1983     Corbiere     8     11-04     Ben de Haan     Jenny Pitman     Bryan Burrough     13/1     9m 47.4s
1984     Hallo Dandy     10     10-02     Neale Doughty     Gordon W. Richards     Richard Shaw     13/1     9m 21.4s
1985     Last Suspect     11     10-05     Hywel Davies     Tim Forster     Anne, Duchess of Westminster     50/1     9m 42.7s
1986     West Tip     9     10-11     Richard Dunwoody     Michael Oliver     Peter Luff     15/2     9m 33s
1987     Maori Venture     11     10-13     Steve Knight     Andrew Turnell     Jim Joel     28/1     9m 19.3s
1988     Rhyme 'n' Reason     9     11-00     Brendan Powell     David Elsworth     Juliet Reed     10/1     9m 53.50s
1989     Little Polveir     12     10-03     Jimmy Frost     Toby Balding     Edward Harvey     28/1     10m 6.90s
1990     Mr. Frisk     11     10-06     Mr Marcus Armytage     Kim Bailey     Lois Duffey (USA)     16/1     8m 47.8s record
1991     Seagram     11     10-06     Nigel Hawke     David Barons     Sir Eric Parker     12/1     9m 29.9s
1992     Party Politics     8     10-07     Carl Llewellyn     Nick Gaselee     Patricia Thompson     14/1     9m 6.4s
1993     Race void [c]                        
1994     Miinnehoma     11     10-08     Richard Dunwoody     Martin Pipe     Freddie Starr     16/1     10m 18.8s
1995     Royal Athlete     12     10-06     Jason Titley     Jenny Pitman     G. & L. Johnson     40/1     9m 4.1s
1996     Rough Quest     10     10-07     Mick Fitzgerald     Terry Casey     Andrew Wates     7/1 F     9m 0.8s
1997     Lord Gyllene     9     10-00     Tony Dobbin     Steve Brookshaw     Stan Clarke     14/1     9m 5.9s
1998     Earth Summit     10     10-05     Carl Llewellyn     Nigel Twiston-Davies     Summit Partnership     7/1 F     10m 51.5s
1999     Bobbyjo     9     10-00     Paul Carberry     Tommy Carberry     Bobby Burke     10/1     9m 14.1s
2000     Papillon     9     10-12     Ruby Walsh     Ted Walsh     Mrs J. Maxwell Moran (USA)     10/1     9m 9.7s
2001     Red Marauder     11     10-11     Richard Guest     Norman Mason     Norman Mason     33/1     11m 0.1s
2002     Bindaree     8     10-04     Jim Culloty     Nigel Twiston-Davies     Raymond Mould     20/1     9m 8.6s
2003     Monty's Pass     10     10-07     Barry Geraghty     Jimmy Mangan     Dee Racing Syndicate     16/1     9m 21.7s
2004     Amberleigh House     12     10-10     Graham Lee     Ginger McCain     Halewood Int. Ltd     16/1     9m 20.3s
2005     Hedgehunter     9     11-01     Ruby Walsh     Willie Mullins     Trevor Hemmings     7/1 F     9m 20.8s
2006     Numbersixvalverde     10     10-08     Niall Madden     Martin Brassil     Bernard Carroll     11/1     9m 41.00s
2007     Silver Birch     10     10-06     Robbie Power     Gordon Elliott     Brian Walsh     33/1     9m 13.6s
2008     Comply or Die     9     10-09     Timmy Murphy     David Pipe     David Johnson     7/1 JF     9m 16.6s
2009     Mon Mome     9     11-00     Liam Treadwell     Venetia Williams     Vida Bingham     100/1     9m 32.9s
2010     Don't Push It     10     11-05     Tony McCoy     Jonjo O'Neill     J. P. McManus     10/1 JF     9m 4.6s
2011     Ballabriggs     10     11-00     Jason Maguire     Donald McCain, Jr.     Trevor Hemmings     14/1     9m 1.2s
2012     Neptune Collonges     11     11-06     Daryl Jacob     Paul Nicholls     John Hales     33/1     9m 5.1s

I cant see any 6/1s in the list above? So I assume suggests is ona false price at the moment.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 28 Mar 13 08:40
To be fair, he is 7/1. And there are three winners at that price between 1996 and 2008 so that list hardly weakens his chance IMO.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 28 Mar 13 09:36
Ok nobody can say what would have happened. But what amazes me is how far of the pace oho was and with the dead of his ease and no effort he saunters up to the leaders. What was unfolding last year was incredible and at time

Yes it was unusual how easily he made up ground, he had easily made up 20L from Beecher`s first to when he fell. I have just watched it again and at the fence before Becher`s first time he was hampered which halted hi momentum a bit, but by the time he was approaching Becher`s second time he was lobbing near the lead.

Just to add he had jumped well and had was very unlucky at Becher`s second time when he fell. A loose horse was running along side him and just cut in front of him enough to put On His Own off. I came on to this thread thinking he was way too short but now i believe he is a stone in and is made for the job.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 28 Mar 13 09:38
I doubt they will go lower than 7/1 at the off.

7/1 on the day and will have a chunky bet, with Teaforthree my next best.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 28 Mar 13 09:53
He missed the start last year too, looked like he was gonna be ridden prominently but planted himself. Impressed with how he avoided trouble, seemed pretty agile avoiding fallers.
By:
Regular Fries
When: 28 Mar 13 10:03
Just rewatched the race and agree he was travelling strongly.

Wow it was a brutal race twelve months ago, with an amazing finish.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 28 Mar 13 10:05
I never noticed that Souldancer, i always struggle to pick them out at the start.

The way i now see it is that he was very unlucky in last years race and he looked a natural fencer of the fences. He is a big rangy type with a combination of pace and stamina. From about 5 fences out there will be a break away pack and i expect him to be amongst this pack and he will be trading about 7/4.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 28 Mar 13 10:06
Last years race was brutal especially if you backed Sunnyhill BoySad
By:
Monksfield79
When: 28 Mar 13 10:09
I just thinking of backing him not to finish to cover all, I don't see him not winning if he finishes.
By:
Regular Fries
When: 28 Mar 13 10:09
Not sure what Neptune will have traded in-running but he sprouted wings at the end alright.
By:
Fallen Angel
When: 28 Mar 13 10:37
I thought this horse is going to be enhanced on the day and don't see any point in betting it now. The lesson from the last few cheltenham's and Aintree last year is the prices seem to bottom out about a week before hand before bouncing back when all the specials occur. The betfair market seems to be alive to this in that OHO has always been a point or so bigger on here. I think at least 8s will be available on the day. Am not a backer myself
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 28 Mar 13 12:27
The 2 in front when he came down hadn't been asked for anything yet and they were nowhere to be seen at the finish. Obv he is a danger but he is too short in the betting.
By:
Regular Fries
When: 28 Mar 13 12:33
Yes, that's the point of this thread, the price. So many factors in the Grand National, even after asking whether he stays or if HE jumps.
By:
jasey
When: 28 Mar 13 12:45
Is OHO fav based on falling in last years race,and some pinch of salt comments from his trainer?
By:
Colldogg
When: 28 Mar 13 14:37
To the people saying on his own was the best travelling horse in the race when he fell, come on. The race still had well over a mile to go. Shakalakaboomboom going to two out looked to be travelling best of all but then the fuel tank hit empty and he finished 9th in the end?

This years race does look a lot weaker though and I am more in the camp of that if he gets round and stays then he wins. I will have a bet on him but I'm not having it now as surely he must reach 9s at some point before the off a week on Saturday.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 28 Mar 13 17:07
I'm in agreement that it's a weaker race which is why I Whittled it down to Seabass and Cappa Bleu.
By:
kavvie
When: 28 Mar 13 19:56
shakalaka ran too free.hes injured this yr.i had oho and shaka as the 2 to take out of the race for this yr..
By:
247lol
When: 28 Mar 13 23:24
A G
In reply to an earlier post.
Yes it does at first glance appear strange that Imperial Commander reached a high of 185 and Denman only 182,but its possible many of us had the perception of Denman being the better horse because he was at the top of his game much longer than Imperial Commander.
IC peaked from his Paddy Power gold win in November 20008 to his Betfair chase  win in November 2010 (2 years),Denman was at the top from his R&S chase win in March 07 to his Gold Cup 2nd in March 2011(4 years).
Denman was a very public horse,much of that due to not only his size but his incredible weight carrying performances and runs against the great Kauto Star.
I think there are enough yardsticks to suggest the handicapper probably got it right.
By:
Ilnamar
When: 29 Mar 13 06:29
Have just watched the 2012 race again....no doubt OHO was travelling well when he fell but so were probably 5 or 6 others.  Interestingly Neptune Collonges wasnt one of them, being intermittently bustled along from quite a long way out.  To read some of the commentshere, you would think OHO had fallen when 10 lengths clear at the last - there was a (very) long way to go and it is really impossible to say where he would have finished.

Seems to me that his price is based one good chase win (Thystes), some evident potential and some general overexcitement.  I am not one to take short prices anyway, but 6/1 seems crazy short to me.  I would want double that to be backing him now.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 29 Mar 13 13:44
Looks a very average renewal , he was bound to be a short price , especially when Prince De Beauchene came out.
One hurdle run since last year , which he won.
He cruised up to the leaders effortlessly last year .
He may or may not win  but I have no doubt he will go off a very short priced favourite ,with SeaBass also a very skinny price.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 29 Mar 13 16:58
He took himself to the leaders for sure. You can see jockey trying to reign him back at times. He may not be getting home if he is that keen again.
By:
marychain1
When: 30 Mar 13 21:02
He was travelling OK but it wasnt like he fell at the last - there was still about 1 mile to go. I cant believe he's so short on the back of that.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 31 Mar 13 01:04
I think that there is more to price than meets the eye and it`s solely because people think he was looking the likely winner last year.

The trainer knows what he has, like Hedgehunter was a stone in and was backed accordingly to 7/1. On His Own looks obviously unexposed and may have taken time to fill into his big frame. He seemed like a big awkward horse to me last year and he could be a late developer with at least a stone in hand. His hurdle win showed his motor is very much in tune and it`s all systems go.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 31 Mar 13 01:05
I think that there is more to price than meets the eye and it`s not solely because people think he was looking the likely winner last year.

The trainer knows what he has, like Hedgehunter was a stone in and was backed accordingly to 7/1. On His Own looks obviously unexposed and may have taken time to fill into his big frame. He seemed like a big awkward horse to me last year and he could be a late developer with at least a stone in hand. His hurdle win showed his motor is very much in tune and it`s all systems go.
By:
jasey
When: 31 Mar 13 02:05
Not seen a chase fence for a year.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 31 Mar 13 02:26
I think Mullins knows the score.
By:
jasey
When: 31 Mar 13 02:39
Hedgehunter apart,whats his GN record like?
By:
Fabulous
When: 31 Mar 13 04:07
jasey, his only other placed runner was Snowy Morning, so I make it 1 win, and 2 placed from 22.
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