6/1 On His Own, give over.

that's only the official going description

the actual state of the going can be quite different as seen at cheltenham

you've just been sucked in monksfield, it is massively over bet now and there are several that have very strong chances at much bigger prices

the going will not be soft, there is no rain really forecast and they will be considering watering

Have you not been informed about this Judorick?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/horseracing/9944256/Aintree-bans-firm-ground-for-the-Grand-National.html

Aintree has run its last fast-ground Grand National. Starting from this year’s race, on April 6, the course will be watered as a matter of routine to provide going that is never any quicker than 'good to soft’.

At Cheltenham the was variations due to the glue factor of the covers being on.

I will believe Aintree to be good/softn if it says so. I`m not going to start double guessing.

A better thread surely must be how the F  k anyone could think of backing Seabass at 9's when OHO was cantering all over everything in last years race. Seabass only finished 3rd and is now 12lb higher.
So as far 6 oho, the 9s Seabass is pure and utter madness.

7/1 on the day may seem a fair price after the race. They have come in for the fav early this year

Hedgehunter was the last single priced winner and before that Earth Summit and then Rough Quest.

I agree compared to Seabass, On His Own looks value

You have to jump the fences and OHO remains woefully inexperienced.  He fell 2nd Beechers so still had well over a mile to go so does not remotely prove he gets the trip however well you believe he was going.

Attempted extreme trips twice and never finished.Got to many negatives  against him for me

At Cheltenham in the 2011 at the Festival he jumped krap in the 4 miler, but he has improved more 2 stone since then and everything points to him being a real staying type. However he last won a chase on a mark of 125 and his hike to 148 has to be proved with in his ability but he physically looks like a real National horse.

i think he was trained by a farmer in 2011 also.

As far as I am concerned On His Own is the most likely winner of the national. But the price of 6/1 is insane to be taking a week and half beforehand. He's certianly going to be no shorter on the day and he must go out to at least 8's before the race goes off. Wait for the gamble on sunnyhillboy when McCoy is confirmed to ride and Teaforthree will most likely come in for lots of support too.

The strength in depth to the national this year does look surprisingly poor to me. Last year I can remember having a shortlist of about 6-7 horses at this time for the race but for this years race I've only got 3 and even 2 of them I have some little doubts with.

Fair comment AG,he has jumped up the weights and he has only had 7 chase starts,which is extemely off putting considering the fewest number of a winner in recent years was 9(miinnehomma 1994)
Having said that i'm also a believer that stats do not win races,Neptune Collonges(1st grey since 1961 ?),Mon mome(1st French bred for 100 years?).
It is very hard to get away from the way OHO travelled off the same mark last year,i wouldn't put anyone off on that score.
He has obviously got a lot of ability and has the Vimy(5th gen)/Wild Risk(7th gen)(sires side)connection in his breeding

wild risk (6th gen)

Last years winner Neptune Collonges had Vimy(6th gen)/wild risk(7th gen)on his dams side,making him the ninth winner from the last 10 runnings to have Wild risk in his last seven generations.

There are 17 with that breeding connection at the moment,one of which beshebar is a non runner.

247, you have to look at reasons behind stats and there is a very good reason for wanting experience in this race.  Being French bred makes it less likely to stay but just means less horses of that breeding will stay not all of them, Irish bred horses certainly have an excellent record in the race and I'd see as a plus.  Being grey is of course a nonsense stat as I'm sure you know :) But needing experience, surely that is not just desirable but vital?

Lol,agree,the grey/French bred stats dont mean a lot.
You will probably find that 90% or more of the horses that ran were not grey or French bred anyway,so theyre obviously not going to win it that often.
Sort of agree on the experience thing but its not carved in stone,i mean common sense tells you that experience should be a big plus.
But having said that,general changes to the race conditions are making it possible for that "number of chases ran in" another stat to bite the dust.

I wouldn't discount anything on lack of experience,provided a decent pilot was on board.

He certainly has a big engine and physically strides out like a National horse but he can be oddly awkward at his fences and for him to jump soundly over 30 fences including twice at Becher`s is not my idea of a 6/1 or 7/1 shot.

Hedgehunter won at 7/1 off 144 but was a stone well in.

Earth Summit won at 7/1 off 147 but was a stone well in.

Rough Quest won at 7/1 off 152 but was placed in the Gold Cup and King George the same year.

What does On His Own have going for him to justify being 6/1?

Field probably isn't as strong from a form perspective as it has been in recent years?

I've got a feeling that experience stat will go this year. A lot of the fancied horses have to overcome it.

Quite possible because funnily enough the ones that look to be on are the less exposed types.
Assuming What a friend and Imperial commander don't go,Weird al top weight !!!.
You don't want to knock any horse,but Weird als  a bit of a monkey yet he could be giving weight all round.

Hedgehunter won at 7/1 off 144 but was a stone well in.

Earth Summit won at 7/1 off 147 but was a stone well in.


Were these facts known before the race, or is it a case we will add OHO to the list after this years race.

Colbert station is one I would like if he had more experience but he has already won in a big field. His sire have produced a couple of national winners in take the stand and monbeg dude.

The weights could be.
Weird Al 11st 10lbs (monkey)
Quels Esprit 11st 9lbs
Big Fella Thanks 11st 8lbs (looks a non stayer)
Roberto Goldback 11st 8lbs
Seabass 11st 8lbs
Ballabriggs 11st 6lbs
Sunnyhill boy 11st 6lbs
Teaforthree 11st 5lbs

Suppose we are looking at Quel Esprit as the class horse,beaten 25 lengths behind Sire Des Champs in the Hennessy gold cup.
If that's the case,this years race is lacking a bit of class and must leave the door wide open to an unexposed improving type.

Monksfield

Hedgehunter was a plot horse with numerous hurdle races used in his build up, with a chase victory in the BobbyJo Chase at Fairyhouse eased down beating a 149(giving 7lb) horse with other 140+ horses a  distance further back. That gave the impression Hedgehunter was moving up and at least a 150+  horse. So it was known he was a handicap snip of such before the GN.

Earth Summit was heavily supported mainly because he was so well suited by soft ground and was a Welsh National winner. It was a weak year and once the rains came you could cross off many non stayers and good ground types and basically you was only left with Earth Summit. That`s how i assessed the race at the time. However i did not expect him to later on justify a 10lb hike after the GN, but he did.

On His Own is probably a plot horse with a stone in hand on his future mark. The money suggests this to me, but his jumping is more suspect than previous `plot winners`.

All the pointers are that Imperial Commander runs, so he will be the class horse in the race - in fact the classiest horse I can remember ever running in it!

Fair enough if he does,very good horse at his best.
Just beaten by a horse getting 6lb that was beaten 22 lengths in this years gold cup
Absolutely nothing wrong with that.

OHO was certainly travelling like he had a stone in hand last year when he fell.
And we know many previous fallers have come back and won.

A G
mullins has stated that either of his 2 main national hopes oho and pdb are better horses than hedgehunter,
people seem to forget ruby was due to ride oho last year before he got injured, he could have chose the winner if i understand correctly that he makes the choices.

Suny Bay was on 170 when he ran in the GN.

Imperial Commander at his best was better but whether he was ever a 185 horse i doubt it. It seems the handicapper got carried away with Denmen, Kauto, Long Run and IC in one or two of those Gold Cups.

I hope he runs because he is a solid brave horse and will go well if 100%

Monk

I think Hedgehunter was a better horse than PDB and at 10 has probably reached his limit, but OHO could be anything but only if he jumps better.

The fact that he won that hurdles race at Navan means more than most think. It shows that the horse is improving and as a lightly raced 9 year old he really could be at least a stone well in and a better horse than Hedgehunter. The more i write about him the more i think he could win by 20L.

you say carried away,but Denman gave 18lb to what a friend in the hennessy and beat kauto star 7 lengths in the gold cup.
Imperial Commander beat Denman 7lengths with a grand national winner 30 lengths back in 3rd.
These horses are peaked for the big ones,forget all the other dross.
The handicapper can only rate them on what they do at the time.
Imperial Commander if he runs is obviously going to be of interest to some off 158.
But after missing the gold cup hes obviously missed work,so the where exactly is he at the moment.
Not a good preparation.

ignore the,lol

Missing the Gold Cup was a blessing in disguise for IC, he needs time between his races, check his record it is indisputable.  Sounds from reports like he is fresh and well which is how you want him - same as he was when he won the Paddy Power, the Ryanair, the Gold Cup and for his 2 Haydock runs, the one where he lost by a short nostril to Kauto Star and the one where he won.

247lol

That`s true about the handicapper, but it does seem strange that IC reached a higher mark than Denman ever did throughout his career.

On His Own is a short price but his competition is dwindling by the day. He is on the same mark as last year, was travelling very well and seems an improved horse all be it in a novice hurdle he ran in.

Let us look at the next 4 in the market:

Seabass (patently seemed not to stay against two finishers) is only 3 points higher (10/1) in the betting and 5lb higher than last year.

Cappa Bleu (outpaced last year but ran on through beaten horses to take 4th)is only 5 points higher at 12/1.

Colbert Station is double the price and has lots to prove and will be the subject of housewives AP support. Ted Walsh favours Seebass above this one apparently!

Chicago Grey (a plodder who will do a Cappa Bleu and run through beaten horses) is only double the price.

Whatever way you look at it, the price re On His Own is very fair at present, and a price which a week on Saturday could well look like a gift from God!

They have to go 6/1 if they're offering 5 or 6 places on the race. You can't afford to rack up the each way bets on a horse like this if you are enhancing the number of places.

You are correct Rankine, 6-1 is a ridiculous price. I would want those sort of odds against any horse getting around who couldn't negotiate half of the fences last year, and don't go on about how well a horse is travelling at that stage of the National as at least 15 were travelling equally as well as is the case every year at that stage.

is he six times more unlightly to win than not?if he stands up he will def fin in first four.so 6/1 is an ok price..

Bin you not looking at same race if you think one never mind 15 were travelling as well as oho.  Ok nobody can say what would have happened. But what amazes me is how far of the pace oho was and with the dead of his ease and no effort he saunters up to the leaders. What was unfolding last year was incredible and at time I had no interest in oho, but immediately thought get to bookies the 2013 national and paddys duly obliged with 33s.
I don't have to worry bout 6s but if I had no bet I still wouldn't have problem taking the mostly 7s.
the original poster picked the lowest odds of course, the usual.

He will be 10s or 12s on the morning of the race... the horse has not proved he is a worthy fav... he did run well in last years race, but it silly if you thought he was going to win as it was so far out.  6/1 is the most silliest price in a 40 runner field... people who back that horse now need their head tested...

1980     Ben Nevis     12     10-12     Mr Charlie Fenwick (USA)     Tim Forster     R. C. Stewart, Jr. (USA)     40/1     10m 17.4s
1981     Aldaniti     11     10-13     Bob Champion     Josh Gifford     Nick Embiricos     10/1     9m 47.2s
1982     Grittar     9     11-05     Mr Dick Saunders     Frank Gilman     Frank Gilman     7/1 F     9m 12.6s
1983     Corbiere     8     11-04     Ben de Haan     Jenny Pitman     Bryan Burrough     13/1     9m 47.4s
1984     Hallo Dandy     10     10-02     Neale Doughty     Gordon W. Richards     Richard Shaw     13/1     9m 21.4s
1985     Last Suspect     11     10-05     Hywel Davies     Tim Forster     Anne, Duchess of Westminster     50/1     9m 42.7s
1986     West Tip     9     10-11     Richard Dunwoody     Michael Oliver     Peter Luff     15/2     9m 33s
1987     Maori Venture     11     10-13     Steve Knight     Andrew Turnell     Jim Joel     28/1     9m 19.3s
1988     Rhyme 'n' Reason     9     11-00     Brendan Powell     David Elsworth     Juliet Reed     10/1     9m 53.50s
1989     Little Polveir     12     10-03     Jimmy Frost     Toby Balding     Edward Harvey     28/1     10m 6.90s
1990     Mr. Frisk     11     10-06     Mr Marcus Armytage     Kim Bailey     Lois Duffey (USA)     16/1     8m 47.8s record
1991     Seagram     11     10-06     Nigel Hawke     David Barons     Sir Eric Parker     12/1     9m 29.9s
1992     Party Politics     8     10-07     Carl Llewellyn     Nick Gaselee     Patricia Thompson     14/1     9m 6.4s
1993     Race void [c]                        
1994     Miinnehoma     11     10-08     Richard Dunwoody     Martin Pipe     Freddie Starr     16/1     10m 18.8s
1995     Royal Athlete     12     10-06     Jason Titley     Jenny Pitman     G. & L. Johnson     40/1     9m 4.1s
1996     Rough Quest     10     10-07     Mick Fitzgerald     Terry Casey     Andrew Wates     7/1 F     9m 0.8s
1997     Lord Gyllene     9     10-00     Tony Dobbin     Steve Brookshaw     Stan Clarke     14/1     9m 5.9s
1998     Earth Summit     10     10-05     Carl Llewellyn     Nigel Twiston-Davies     Summit Partnership     7/1 F     10m 51.5s
1999     Bobbyjo     9     10-00     Paul Carberry     Tommy Carberry     Bobby Burke     10/1     9m 14.1s
2000     Papillon     9     10-12     Ruby Walsh     Ted Walsh     Mrs J. Maxwell Moran (USA)     10/1     9m 9.7s
2001     Red Marauder     11     10-11     Richard Guest     Norman Mason     Norman Mason     33/1     11m 0.1s
2002     Bindaree     8     10-04     Jim Culloty     Nigel Twiston-Davies     Raymond Mould     20/1     9m 8.6s
2003     Monty's Pass     10     10-07     Barry Geraghty     Jimmy Mangan     Dee Racing Syndicate     16/1     9m 21.7s
2004     Amberleigh House     12     10-10     Graham Lee     Ginger McCain     Halewood Int. Ltd     16/1     9m 20.3s
2005     Hedgehunter     9     11-01     Ruby Walsh     Willie Mullins     Trevor Hemmings     7/1 F     9m 20.8s
2006     Numbersixvalverde     10     10-08     Niall Madden     Martin Brassil     Bernard Carroll     11/1     9m 41.00s
2007     Silver Birch     10     10-06     Robbie Power     Gordon Elliott     Brian Walsh     33/1     9m 13.6s
2008     Comply or Die     9     10-09     Timmy Murphy     David Pipe     David Johnson     7/1 JF     9m 16.6s
2009     Mon Mome     9     11-00     Liam Treadwell     Venetia Williams     Vida Bingham     100/1     9m 32.9s
2010     Don't Push It     10     11-05     Tony McCoy     Jonjo O'Neill     J. P. McManus     10/1 JF     9m 4.6s
2011     Ballabriggs     10     11-00     Jason Maguire     Donald McCain, Jr.     Trevor Hemmings     14/1     9m 1.2s
2012     Neptune Collonges     11     11-06     Daryl Jacob     Paul Nicholls     John Hales     33/1     9m 5.1s

I cant see any 6/1s in the list above? So I assume suggests is ona false price at the moment.

To be fair, he is 7/1. And there are three winners at that price between 1996 and 2008 so that list hardly weakens his chance IMO.

Ok nobody can say what would have happened. But what amazes me is how far of the pace oho was and with the dead of his ease and no effort he saunters up to the leaders. What was unfolding last year was incredible and at time

Yes it was unusual how easily he made up ground, he had easily made up 20L from Beecher`s first to when he fell. I have just watched it again and at the fence before Becher`s first time he was hampered which halted hi momentum a bit, but by the time he was approaching Becher`s second time he was lobbing near the lead.

Just to add he had jumped well and had was very unlucky at Becher`s second time when he fell. A loose horse was running along side him and just cut in front of him enough to put On His Own off. I came on to this thread thinking he was way too short but now i believe he is a stone in and is made for the job.

I doubt they will go lower than 7/1 at the off.

7/1 on the day and will have a chunky bet, with Teaforthree my next best.

He missed the start last year too, looked like he was gonna be ridden prominently but planted himself. Impressed with how he avoided trouble, seemed pretty agile avoiding fallers.

Just rewatched the race and agree he was travelling strongly.

Wow it was a brutal race twelve months ago, with an amazing finish.

I never noticed that Souldancer, i always struggle to pick them out at the start.

The way i now see it is that he was very unlucky in last years race and he looked a natural fencer of the fences. He is a big rangy type with a combination of pace and stamina. From about 5 fences out there will be a break away pack and i expect him to be amongst this pack and he will be trading about 7/4.

Last years race was brutal especially if you backed Sunnyhill Boy

I just thinking of backing him not to finish to cover all, I don't see him not winning if he finishes.

Not sure what Neptune will have traded in-running but he sprouted wings at the end alright.

I thought this horse is going to be enhanced on the day and don't see any point in betting it now. The lesson from the last few cheltenham's and Aintree last year is the prices seem to bottom out about a week before hand before bouncing back when all the specials occur. The betfair market seems to be alive to this in that OHO has always been a point or so bigger on here. I think at least 8s will be available on the day. Am not a backer myself

The 2 in front when he came down hadn't been asked for anything yet and they were nowhere to be seen at the finish. Obv he is a danger but he is too short in the betting.

Yes, that's the point of this thread, the price. So many factors in the Grand National, even after asking whether he stays or if HE jumps.

Is OHO fav based on falling in last years race,and some pinch of salt comments from his trainer?

To the people saying on his own was the best travelling horse in the race when he fell, come on. The race still had well over a mile to go. Shakalakaboomboom going to two out looked to be travelling best of all but then the fuel tank hit empty and he finished 9th in the end?

This years race does look a lot weaker though and I am more in the camp of that if he gets round and stays then he wins. I will have a bet on him but I'm not having it now as surely he must reach 9s at some point before the off a week on Saturday.

I'm in agreement that it's a weaker race which is why I Whittled it down to Seabass and Cappa Bleu.

shakalaka ran too free.hes injured this yr.i had oho and shaka as the 2 to take out of the race for this yr..

A G
In reply to an earlier post.
Yes it does at first glance appear strange that Imperial Commander reached a high of 185 and Denman only 182,but its possible many of us had the perception of Denman being the better horse because he was at the top of his game much longer than Imperial Commander.
IC peaked from his Paddy Power gold win in November 20008 to his Betfair chase  win in November 2010 (2 years),Denman was at the top from his R&S chase win in March 07 to his Gold Cup 2nd in March 2011(4 years).
Denman was a very public horse,much of that due to not only his size but his incredible weight carrying performances and runs against the great Kauto Star.
I think there are enough yardsticks to suggest the handicapper probably got it right.

Have just watched the 2012 race again....no doubt OHO was travelling well when he fell but so were probably 5 or 6 others.  Interestingly Neptune Collonges wasnt one of them, being intermittently bustled along from quite a long way out.  To read some of the commentshere, you would think OHO had fallen when 10 lengths clear at the last - there was a (very) long way to go and it is really impossible to say where he would have finished.

Seems to me that his price is based one good chase win (Thystes), some evident potential and some general overexcitement.  I am not one to take short prices anyway, but 6/1 seems crazy short to me.  I would want double that to be backing him now.

Looks a very average renewal , he was bound to be a short price , especially when Prince De Beauchene came out.
One hurdle run since last year , which he won.
He cruised up to the leaders effortlessly last year .
He may or may not win  but I have no doubt he will go off a very short priced favourite ,with SeaBass also a very skinny price.

He took himself to the leaders for sure. You can see jockey trying to reign him back at times. He may not be getting home if he is that keen again.

He was travelling OK but it wasnt like he fell at the last - there was still about 1 mile to go. I cant believe he's so short on the back of that.

I think that there is more to price than meets the eye and it`s solely because people think he was looking the likely winner last year.

The trainer knows what he has, like Hedgehunter was a stone in and was backed accordingly to 7/1. On His Own looks obviously unexposed and may have taken time to fill into his big frame. He seemed like a big awkward horse to me last year and he could be a late developer with at least a stone in hand. His hurdle win showed his motor is very much in tune and it`s all systems go.

I think that there is more to price than meets the eye and it`s not solely because people think he was looking the likely winner last year.

The trainer knows what he has, like Hedgehunter was a stone in and was backed accordingly to 7/1. On His Own looks obviously unexposed and may have taken time to fill into his big frame. He seemed like a big awkward horse to me last year and he could be a late developer with at least a stone in hand. His hurdle win showed his motor is very much in tune and it`s all systems go.

Not seen a chase fence for a year.

I think Mullins knows the score.

Hedgehunter apart,whats his GN record like?

jasey, his only other placed runner was Snowy Morning, so I make it 1 win, and 2 placed from 22.

Yes Mullins has much to learn

Have watched the race again from a number of horses perspectives I counted 3 incidents where he lost lengths quite a few after the melee with chicago grey after the 5th fence.

He almost got taken down by Synchronised falling and he had a buffeting match a couple of other times on the first circuit.

I have been mopping up prices on other horses to build a book, but too be honest 7/1 plus like a few posters have been saying isnt horrendous.

His win at Ayr proved he can handle a quicker surface not that it will be at Aintree, he has immense size and ran here as an 8 year old cant remember how many 8 year olds have won but v few.

Throw in the Ruby factor the fact most of this field is pretty mediocre and he is getting in off a weight of 11st if you took Imperial Commander out of the race from a class perspective the race is v poor.

Will we get 8,9,10 on the day who knows but if we did somehow get enhanced odds i will be on espicially if Bvic offer 1/4 first 6 and go big

Lol,love it.
Sounds very much like a layer talking up the badly priced favourite.
Yes he was travelling well last year,probably better than anything else.
But falling 2nd time round at bechers was to far out to say how he might have faired.
On the negative side is the fact hes only had 7 runs over fences,the same amount as last year.
I have stated that stats mean little,with the grey/French bred ones going up in smoke in recent years.(explained on another post)
But that said I think theres more substance to this stat,having 10 runs over fences is the generally accepted norm of recent years,Miinnehoma 9 in 1994(7th in gold cup on 8th start)and Little polveir 8 in 1989 the only ones to beat the "must have had 10" factor.
Add to that the layers making a mullins entry or ruby walsh mount favourite just about every year,i think we can be fairly clear on any value in OHO's price as related to his chance of winning.
So I think that's covered until someone can come up with stats prior to 1989 to prove this as yet another meaningless stat.

Forget stats.His completion rate alone should have alarm bells ringing

Isnt completion rate a stat?

Its a fact

Just what i thought ststs are only fiction based on fact

backing oho at 6s might be mad according to a lot of posters, hands up who's laying him and taking the field at 1/8.

Little Polveir had had way more than 8 starts, he was a very experienced 12yo when he won and an ex Scots National winner (1987).  Think you may have been fooled by Racing Post website which only has races from start of 88/89 season on it?

Racingpost lifetime chase record says 13 chase starts which is not even close.

Yes he ran in the National THREE times and won Scottish national before that record begins!

Ok,have'nt found it yet,but if that's right then it makes the number of runs even more significant.

It wasn’t until Little Polveir’s fourth attempt at the Grand National, when he was twelve years old, that he won it in 1989. He had come ninth in 1986 and unseated his rider in the two years preceding his victory.

Bred in Co. Antrim by Cantab (who had won the Triumph Hurdle) out of Blue Speedwell, Little Polveir was named after a salmon fishing pond in Scotland. He was bought without having being raced, by trainer John Edwards on behalf of Mark Shone and entered his first race over fences in 1983 – at 40-1 in a three mile novice chase which he won by twenty lengths. However following that impressive debut he went on to demonstrate careless jumping, which meant he only managed to win one race over fences in each of his first five seasons up to 1987. The last of these races was a turning point – he won by ten lengths over four miles on heavy ground in the Scottish Grand National.

While his first two entries into the Grand National saw him give less than impressive performances, he actually did quite well in the 1988 race, at the age of eleven, where he was in the lead until the twenty-sixth where he took off too soon, landing on the fence, giving the lead to the eventual winner Rhyme ‘N’ Reason.

After finishing third in a chase at Bangor in February 1989, Little Polveir was bought by trainer Toby Balding on behalf of a Mr Harvey, who was buying a horse for his son. Sold for the price of 15,000 guineas, the exchange of trainer was slightly ironic given that Edwards had started out as Balding’s assistant.

Edwards had three runners in the 1986 National, and 1989 saw him enter six runners including Little Polveir. While he had no choice but to give up the twelve year old, his chances of winning were actually looking quite high – in his hands he had Dixton House, the 7-1 clear favourite as well as Bob Tisdall who was being ridden by John White, a jockey that had completed in all of his five previous National attempts.

Unfortunately for Edwards Dixton House fell over the first Becher’s and Bob Tisdall usurped White’s unblemished record – he had a false start, which he followed by missing the break at the re-start before clearing only one fence and then refusing to go any further.

Little Polveir on the other hand was demonstrating impeccable jumping, and with Jimmy Frost in command of the reigns they started the second circuit in the lead. Smart Tar and Durham Edition both challenged, but ultimately Smart Tar gave Little Polveir the race on a stick, when he unseated Carl Llewellyn from the saddle, becoming the loose horse who then carried Durham Edition towards the rails leaving Little Polveir to win by seven lengths from West Tip. The Thinker was a half a length behind in third.

While there was probably no consoling Edwards, at least his previous owner Mr Shone had had the foresight to back his old horse at ante-post odds of 40-1.

Stand corrected,Miinnehoma 9 chase starts is the fewest of any winner in recent times.

The stats can be subjected to leeway imo.

Take Miinnehoma for example, yes only 9 chase starts but a lightly raced 11 year old who had run respectfully in that years Gold Cup. Big after timing here but i told all my mates to pile into Miinnehoma and with the added pressure of other people(a small town word travels fast) following my tip the elation of us all watching it cruise into the lead and then be under pressure for the win was something i will never forget. Was it really 19 years ago!

Anyway yes there are times imo to relax the stats, such as this year with T43 on his last years novice stat.

Someone started a rather hash column that all stats are b0ll0cks,ive said many times don't get carried away with them.
Many have been put up on sites like Grandnational.co.uk year in year out without being fully researched,but some of these stats do seem to be holding.
Like Miinnehoma being the only horse to break the must have 10 rule(9 chase starts)  since the year dot,which of course theoretically gives horses like Colbert station(5 chase runs) and the favourite On his own(7 chase runs) absolutely no chance.
And we must also remember that Miinnehoma was a proven class act (won sun alliance chase 92 7th to The Fellow in 93 Gold Cup).
It may well be yet another stat goes,it would be interesting to go further back to see exactly how much substance is in this particular one.

Does anyone think the alterations to the fences could help the less experienced horses.
The fences looked a bit lower after being jumped over in the foxhunters

I don't think theyre lower,i think they just made the course safer.
The fences still have to be jumped and they don't hang about so dodgy jumpers are a big no no around here.
I know one thing,looking at todays racing that ground is dead,you will need to stay every yard.

No i mean they are getting smashed lower by horses jumping them

10s at WH

That'll do

The punters will smash into this tomorrow. I understand Mullins thinks the horse is very well handcapped.

There's two major things that put me off him and he is out of my top 6 of potential winners because of it.

1. He is more inexperienced at chasing than a typical National winner (just 8 chases)
2. His record in large fields isn't great. From 6 races with 15+ runners he's finished 18th,4th,PU,BD,1st,Fell

That seems to show that he has some difficulty in big fields and combined with a lack of experience (compared to others in the race and typical National winners)this puts me off him somewhat.  He's got the best jockey on board though to help him through it and I wouldn't be surprised to see him run well for a long way without jumping great, but Ruby may well have his work cut out.

I'm predicting that he will fall somewhere on the 1st circuit at one of the larger fences, possibly when sandwiched between horses or when (if he leads)another horse comes upsides when he's eyeing up the next fence)

He'll surely be on the drift tomorrow.

Are Hills and Laddies really going 12/1 in the morning?

Ben Linfoot suggested it in his column but can't find any confirmation of it whatsoever.

Not had any email from Hills about going 12-1

Just SEVEN chases Shrews, is only 8 if you include his PTP so I'd class that as seven and a half!   At least he has the 3 wins but just doesn't feel like enough to me.  Unless the fences are so much softer that novices and lightly raced horses are going to start dominating, I just can't see it.  If I was faced with this field over regulation fences in say a Scottish National, I'm sure he'd be on my shortlist, in fact I'm sure he'd be my second choice and the even more lightly raced Colbert Station would be my first!

I have been over the profiles  of the last 30/35 winners many times and they all had a similar look.
Either,form over the National fences,class form (gold cup,hennessy etc),well handicapped irish horses that had the 10 runs in chases,form in the irish national or Cheltenham festival form.
Its one hell of a training performance or one good horse if Colbert Station conquers the national on his 5th start,On his own couldn't do it last year after 7 chase starts,yet trys again without another run over fences.
No doubt On his own was  cruising when slightly hampered by a loose horse and another runner last year when he fell,but it was rather a soft fall when there was no real reason to do so.
If he wins he wins,but ide rather be on something that fits the criteria of all recent winners.

Sorry ,conquers the national after 5 chase starts

12/1 now at Ladbrokes.

well I said it wouldn't be short as 6s but I didn't expect 12s. Got to say OHO is starting to look value now. The enhancement stuff on the day is making the ante-post market redundant when backing the favs

Another extreme trip failure

He was beaten before they had gone 3 miles so wouldn't put it down to the trip.  Experience failure same as the even more inexperienced Colbert Station.  Even though the fences are softer than **** now the huge field and the different look of the fences will continue to make experience necessary.