Cappa Bleu

How many of Cappa Bleu`s age and success over fences (Christie`s Foxhunters winner, Welsh National 3rd, failed on lack of experience? 5 Chases, 1 Hunter Chase, 4 PTP does not qualify him for the 9 chase stat. Yet he hardly puts a foot wrong ( unlike Killyglen )apart from a fall when knackered behind Denman. All in all he is a better jumper than most but fails on jumping experience. Ballabrigs broke a stat last year and i think Cappa Bleu will break two stats this year. GL

Is Vic Venturi worth a saver? Has won over these fences and is on a good mark this year. Will have to forgive his last run but his previous runs before that suggest he retains ability. Also 12 is not too old according to the stats.

Vic Venturi,obviously interesting because he hacked up in the 2009 becher,he is 12 but that age group do win,2004 Amberleigh house,1995 Royal Athlete,1989 Little polveir,1980 Ben Nevis,1977 Red Rum and 1975 L'Escargot.
You could argue that Vic Venturi had a valid form chance on a line with Rare Bob,but that was Rare Bobs 3rd run in class 1 company in the space of 3 months,and his 1st since looking like he was about to run a big race until falling in the John Smiths,you have to question wether he had fully recovered from the first 2 and wether his last run of that season was just an after thought.
Vic Venturi has ran twice before in the National and not got round yet,that along with the 49 day rule i just wonder wether hes missed his chance or maybe lacks that bit of class.

Without trying to sound to cocky,cappa bleu kind of reminds of that phrase used on that TV programme where the contestants had to guess the answers to a question(cant remember its name),but the compare would often say when given an obviously incorrect answer "if thats up there ill pay you myself".
Just kind of think i feel like saying that to people that think a horse thats had 6 chase starts can win the Aintree Grand National.

Sires progeny and their prefered goings,i dont use a site as many are in my head,ive just learnt them over the years.
Kingmambo-soft,Turtle Island-soft,Selkirk-soft,Picollo-firm,Diktat-heavy,its not carved in stone but generally works with most progeny,occasionly one will go against the grain and win on ground its not meant to like.
Will look for a site though.

It's a little bit harsh to say Vic Venturi hasn't got round. He was hampered by the huge melee two years ago and the jockey reported he was enjoying himself that day. He was also brought down last year at the second. The year he won the Becher the horse he beat that day went on to finish 2nd in the National. He's 12lb better off for beating him 8 lengths that day. We do need to forgive him his last run but we're not talking about one of the fancied runners, he's 160 to back on betfair. Obviously he will need luck with his style of running.

I was a bit in hindsight Gold,think i was just trying to give some valid points on why i wouldnt back him,quite a few winners have either fallen or been brought down in previous years,so we'll rub that one off.
I was kind of watching him as horses were dropping out,wondering if he would squeeze in,looking back at Silver Birch we shouldnt be to ready to write horses off because they ran in what might be considered inferior company to this.
Problem is though,the stables B J Cooper is on Rare Bob and getting beaten 42 lengths in a hunter chase doesnt compare to Silver Birches running in the Cheltenham cross country.
Going back to the form angle with Rare Bob,horses are not 100 percent for all the races they run in,look at The Giant Bolster,ran away with a handicap over 2mile 5 furlongs then gets put in his place by Long Run getting 4lb over 3 miles,so having never won over 3 miles come Gold Cup day he appears to have no chance of placing let alone winning in the gold cup,yet he nearly steals it and only an inspired mccoy ride stopped him.
Fact is trainers ready them when they think they have a chance and Rare Bobs overall best form is better than Vic Venturis,and it looks like a bit of a plot job based on his last run,running off 146 here compared to the 145 mark when he gave chunks of weight to the 2011 Irish National winner in January 2011,i think the trainers trained him very cleverly.

Inexperienced horse do jump around the National course, but perhaps have just in the past lack the required stamina. Big Fella Thanks being a horse which comes to mind. He jumped around and ran a sound race in 09 after only 6 Chase starts. I would add that the 9 chase stat could be flawed regarding older horses as there can not be many 10 year olds in that category and perhaps there will be many 7 year olds who do not have the required strength/stamina.

Cappa Bleu is not a weak 7 year old, so i will ignore the 9 chase stat for this one.

Point taken about Vic and he's obviously not well fancied as he's 210 to back now. I don't think I'll be able to resist a cheeky £5 when it goes NRNB. Just in case :-)

Lol,yes angel,stats are stats and as mentioned earlier do not win races,but i think for a race like the national they are a very good guide and highlight the flaws in any runners make up.

Tamarinbleu is a good yardstick for the Haydock race which Cappa Bleu won and Killyglen finished 3rd.

Tamerinbleu runs up to his best when fresh and ran well in his next 2 races. He is at 149 OR. Killyglen career top OR is 154 in 2009, he is now a 10 year old so i would say he ran close to his mark at Haydock. So Cappa Bleu has gone up 7lb for beating Killyglen fair and square in my eyes..So the form is very similar..

So take it back that CB has poor form!!!

Just been searching some Dessie Hughes quotes about the National. Vic was meant to go for the fox hunters which is why he was running in PTP's. He didn't qualify though so had to switch to National. He said he scoped badly after his last run and it's best ignored.

He said Black Apalachi was the pick of the quartet :O

Didn't say an awful lot about Rare Bob apart from was always the plan for Bryan to ride and he tired on the bottomless ground at Aintree. Said he likes better ground than that.

I had mentioned the ground thing with bob,his action suggests good would suit far better than soft,in that case hes rarely had his prefered going.

He won't have many supporters because of the problems he's had, but i presume you'd be confident that if the 'right' Weird Al turns up, that he'll see out the marathon?

lol

It is, and i rate the horse very highly, if he's right on the day i expect him to go very close even with the weight. I hope Mr McCain has learnt how to settle him beforehand and Timmy Murphy could be a huge benefit

Possibly, and i won't solely be relying on a horse with his injury problems. My view on him is that if he's 'right' on saturday is that he's a stone better than that mark

lol

correction 42

That means Hello Bud and Neptune Equester can now take their chance.