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Grand National
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Not only have i applied 14 stats that were achieved by all recent winners,i have also applied some very interesting breeding stats that have appeared in the 9 generation tree of recent winners.
Dating back to 2002 all winners had either Vimy(king george winner)or his sire Wild risk appear in their 4th or 5th generations,Wild Risk coming from the Blandford mare Wild Violet.
The only winner that didnt was 2009 winner Mon mome,but he had Blandfords son Blenheim(derby)in his 8th line and grandson Mahmoud(derby) in his 7th line on his sires side.
Add to this the appearance of Brantome(Arc,2yo French triple crown)8th line,Vieux Manoir(Grand prix de paris,2nd St Leger)7th line and Exbury (Arc,Coronation cup,Grands prix de saint cloud,Prix Ganay,Prix Boiard)5th line,along with a few Blandford lines on the dams side,i think a picture is beginning to form of the very high class lines bred into these National winners,many originating from champion sire Blandford.
After applying the 14 stats associated with previous winners i came up with a list of four.
According to pete.
Sunnyhillboy.
Killyglen.
Rare Bob
The female tail lines are in sinc with previous winners,ATP speed 10 stamina 16,SHB speed 6 stamina 15,K speed 3 stamina 13 and RB speed 5 stamina 17,but only 3 have the Vimy/Wild Risk influence in their 4th or 5th generations,and they are Sunnyhillboy with Vimy 4th and Wild Risk 5th,Rare Bob with Vimy in his 5th line and Killygen with Vimy also in his 5th generation.
Make of it what you will but facts are facts and theyre all weighted under 11 stone,so given the recent recent rain ide say these stats are even more relevant.
Enjoy,hope the winners in there.
Dating back to 2002 all winners had either Vimy(king george winner)or his sire Wild risk appear in their 4th or 5th generations,Wild Risk coming from the Blandford mare Wild Violet.
The only winner that didnt was 2009 winner Mon mome,but he had Blandfords son Blenheim(derby)in his 8th line and grandson Mahmoud(derby) in his 7th line on his sires side.
Add to this the appearance of Brantome(Arc,2yo French triple crown)8th line,Vieux Manoir(Grand prix de paris,2nd St Leger)7th line and Exbury (Arc,Coronation cup,Grands prix de saint cloud,Prix Ganay,Prix Boiard)5th line,along with a few Blandford lines on the dams side,i think a picture is beginning to form of the very high class lines bred into these National winners,many originating from champion sire Blandford.
After applying the 14 stats associated with previous winners i came up with a list of four.
According to pete.
Sunnyhillboy.
Killyglen.
Rare Bob
The female tail lines are in sinc with previous winners,ATP speed 10 stamina 16,SHB speed 6 stamina 15,K speed 3 stamina 13 and RB speed 5 stamina 17,but only 3 have the Vimy/Wild Risk influence in their 4th or 5th generations,and they are Sunnyhillboy with Vimy 4th and Wild Risk 5th,Rare Bob with Vimy in his 5th line and Killygen with Vimy also in his 5th generation.
Make of it what you will but facts are facts and theyre all weighted under 11 stone,so given the recent recent rain ide say these stats are even more relevant.
Enjoy,hope the winners in there.
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Tamarinbleu is a good yardstick for the Haydock race which Cappa Bleu won and Killyglen finished 3rd.
Tamerinbleu runs up to his best when fresh and ran well in his next 2 races. He is at 149 OR. Killyglen career top OR is 154 in 2009, he is now a 10 year old so i would say he ran close to his mark at Haydock. So Cappa Bleu has gone up 7lb for beating Killyglen fair and square in my eyes..So the form is very similar..
So take it back that CB has poor form!!!
Tamerinbleu runs up to his best when fresh and ran well in his next 2 races. He is at 149 OR. Killyglen career top OR is 154 in 2009, he is now a 10 year old so i would say he ran close to his mark at Haydock. So Cappa Bleu has gone up 7lb for beating Killyglen fair and square in my eyes..So the form is very similar..
So take it back that CB has poor form!!!
Just a point regarding Cappa Bleus pedigree,it looked very weak compared to some,the Blandford lines were not appearing with the same frequency as previous winners or some of the other contenders.
Vimy does appear in the 6th line and Wild Risk the 7th line on the sires side but Blandford-Bahram and Blandford-Blenheim make only 1 appearance each in a 10 generation pedigree,ide say it lacks class.
Vimy does appear in the 6th line and Wild Risk the 7th line on the sires side but Blandford-Bahram and Blandford-Blenheim make only 1 appearance each in a 10 generation pedigree,ide say it lacks class.
Just been searching some Dessie Hughes quotes about the National. Vic was meant to go for the fox hunters which is why he was running in PTP's. He didn't qualify though so had to switch to National. He said he scoped badly after his last run and it's best ignored.
He said Black Apalachi was the pick of the quartet :O
Didn't say an awful lot about Rare Bob apart from was always the plan for Bryan to ride and he tired on the bottomless ground at Aintree. Said he likes better ground than that.
He said Black Apalachi was the pick of the quartet :O
Didn't say an awful lot about Rare Bob apart from was always the plan for Bryan to ride and he tired on the bottomless ground at Aintree. Said he likes better ground than that.
Lol,so not exactly trained for the race Vic and if Black Apalache wins i can honestly say ill never bet in the race again.
And lets be honest these trainers tell us very little or if they do its normally a long way from the truth.
And lets be honest these trainers tell us very little or if they do its normally a long way from the truth.
I had mentioned the ground thing with bob,his action suggests good would suit far better than soft,in that case hes rarely had his prefered going.
Think we had better shut the case on Cappa Bleu,he was beaten 22 lengths behind le beau bai,think ill have his supporters on my case next(seems to like soft/heavy,out for 56 days)
He won't have many supporters because of the problems he's had, but i presume you'd be confident that if the 'right' Weird Al turns up, that he'll see out the marathon?
yeah you can't trust trainers. I think what he really meant to say was "We were going for the Foxhunters until we seen what weight that stupid handicapper gave us and now we're gonna fill our boots at 200/1". :D Haha only joking even though I hope I'm right.
One thing you can say about Weird Al is his breeding is bang on but he unfortunately breaks blood vessels,trained by the right man though.
It is, and i rate the horse very highly, if he's right on the day i expect him to go very close even with the weight. I hope Mr McCain has learnt how to settle him beforehand and Timmy Murphy could be a huge benefit
With all the rain though i just feel you have to be swayed into looking under 11st this year.
Good site for the weather is myweather.com
Good site for the weather is myweather.com
Possibly, and i won't solely be relying on a horse with his injury problems. My view on him is that if he's 'right' on saturday is that he's a stone better than that mark 
Interesting because a relation of mine was quite sweet on him for a long time,but hes about 2 steps from the looney bin.
That wasnt a poke at you by the way,but i know he'll be reading this at some point,just a windup.
Knew there was something about Weird Al,hes only ever ran in 1 handicap chase and he was beaten 43 lengths,bit worrying.
Knew there was something about Weird Al,hes only ever ran in 1 handicap chase and he was beaten 43 lengths,bit worrying.
Latest.
Le Beau Bai has been withdrawn, and connections had warned earlier in the week the ground may not be soft enough for the Welsh National winner, who was a top-priced 40-1.
Always Waining, who runs in Friday's Topham Chase instead, was the only other defector from the 47 qualified five-day entries.
Le Beau Bai has been withdrawn, and connections had warned earlier in the week the ground may not be soft enough for the Welsh National winner, who was a top-priced 40-1.
Always Waining, who runs in Friday's Topham Chase instead, was the only other defector from the 47 qualified five-day entries.
That means Hello Bud and Neptune Equester can now take their chance.
247 - haha, Weird Al was found to have a paralysed larynx in the hennessy
Not heard that one,wonder if humans can get that(rozel,you there,lol)
I wondered why he was always slurring his words on Ch 4. Must have the build up to paralysed larynx.
Grand National Winners days since last run.
2011 Ballabriggs 35
2010 Dont Push It 23
2009 Mon Mome 21
2008 Comply Or Die42
2007 Silver Birch 32
2006 Numbersix'de 27
2005 Hedgehunter 49
2004 Amberleigh h 28
2003 Montys Pass 20
2002 Bindaree 25
2001 Red Marauder 42
2000 Papillon 20
1999 Bobbyjo 24
1998 Earth Summit 35
1997 Lord Gyllene 23
1996 Rough Quest 16
1995 Royal Athlete35
1994 Miinnehoma 23
1993 void
1992 Party Pol'cs 35
1991 Seagram 23
1990 Mr Frisk 25
1989 Little pol'r 29
2011 Ballabriggs 35
2010 Dont Push It 23
2009 Mon Mome 21
2008 Comply Or Die42
2007 Silver Birch 32
2006 Numbersix'de 27
2005 Hedgehunter 49
2004 Amberleigh h 28
2003 Montys Pass 20
2002 Bindaree 25
2001 Red Marauder 42
2000 Papillon 20
1999 Bobbyjo 24
1998 Earth Summit 35
1997 Lord Gyllene 23
1996 Rough Quest 16
1995 Royal Athlete35
1994 Miinnehoma 23
1993 void
1992 Party Pol'cs 35
1991 Seagram 23
1990 Mr Frisk 25
1989 Little pol'r 29
Following Follow The Plans decisive victory in the bowl the trainer commented on the ground drying out a lot.
Even if they do have showers the going will be no worse than good,the general outlook isnt as bad as originally predicted,the National track does dry out very quickly,you only have to look at the times on National day last year.
Incedently that very small horse Cloudy Lane lane,how did it get on over those big National fences.
Do youcount Follow the Plan;s victory as a form boost for Rare Bob and Vic?
I've tookthe plunge and backed Vic Venturi, Sunnyhillboy and Killyglen. The way my week has gone Rare Bob is a cert now :-)
I've tookthe plunge and backed Vic Venturi, Sunnyhillboy and Killyglen. The way my week has gone Rare Bob is a cert now :-)
Lol,well its not exactly done their chances any harm has it,Burton Port beaten 8 lengths in the Gold Cup was beaten 3 here at levels,but Vic Venturi and Rare bob get a nice weight concession from Synchronised Saturday.
Just on form theres grounds for thinking that they have a great chance at the weights,but of the 2 rare Bob seems in better form and will 100 percent appreciate the drying ground more than Vic Venturi.
Just on form theres grounds for thinking that they have a great chance at the weights,but of the 2 rare Bob seems in better form and will 100 percent appreciate the drying ground more than Vic Venturi.
My mate owns Rare Bob-I left a voicemessage with him today to tell him that his horse was going to win the National-you will see him on telly the bearded chap with the wide girth-he has not got back to me.I hope he took the news well.I will post when I hear from him probably tomo.
Really get the feeling that According To Pete will run a massive race. Jefferson in great form, distance fine improving and he fits in with these bloodlines.
He was discussed earlier,maybe not as much class in his pedigree as the main 3 but on the list.
Jefferson has had a turnaround in form recently and the sire is via Sadlers Wells,not sure he will have as much speed as some at the business end on the drying ground though.
Jefferson has had a turnaround in form recently and the sire is via Sadlers Wells,not sure he will have as much speed as some at the business end on the drying ground though.
I think you have a valid point that Vic will need it soft to win. I've laid my bet off at 40 points shorter than what I backed him at and reinvested it on Rare Bob. Got all the trends horses running for me now.
Yes,things getting a bit clearer now and i think you only have to look at the times today to appreciate how fast this track dries out(soft on monday after heavy rainfall),so with the forecast now being just a few minor showers,i think its pretty safe to say if your horse wants cut get the matches out.
Having had another glance at According To Pete i feel pretty certain that although hes by Accordian he would also prefer a bit of juice,his last 7 runs on good have resulted in defeats of 4 lths,23 lths,33 lths,59 lths,15 lths(flat),27 lths and 12 1/2 lths,thats doesnt make good reading for his supporters im afraid.
Having had another glance at According To Pete i feel pretty certain that although hes by Accordian he would also prefer a bit of juice,his last 7 runs on good have resulted in defeats of 4 lths,23 lths,33 lths,59 lths,15 lths(flat),27 lths and 12 1/2 lths,thats doesnt make good reading for his supporters im afraid.
So taking everything as it stands now,the stats and breeding horses look in an even stronger position,Killyglen won a class 1 by 9 lengths on good at Aintree,sunnyhillboy won class 1 by 4 lengths on good at Aintree and Rare Bob falling 2 out when challenging on good at Aintree giving 13lb to Prince De Beauchene(mark now 6lb lower).
Aye. Lets hope they don't mess the ground up by watering it too much and it's all good to go!
The Mildmay and hurdles course are good, good to soft in places after 3-5mm of watering. The going on the Grand National course, which has been selectively watered, is good to soft, good in places.
This will have no effect whatsoever,the scattered showers have failed to materialise so it will be interesting to see how the times relate to standard today.
Significant move for Sunnyhillboy as well,was trading 24/25 yesterday now 19.
This will have no effect whatsoever,the scattered showers have failed to materialise so it will be interesting to see how the times relate to standard today.
Significant move for Sunnyhillboy as well,was trading 24/25 yesterday now 19.
I dont like doing this but i have to say that Synchronised has absolutely no chance of winning the Grand National off 11st 10lbs,the only reason he won the gold cup was A.because is was sub standard B he has a fantastic engine an C(most importantly)A P Mccoy gave him the ride of all time.
Take a look at how he jumped the 22 fences.
1.very tentative and novicey.
2.very tentative and novicey.
3.not great.
4 couldnt see bad camera angle.
5 couldnt see bad camera angle.
6 couldnt see bad camera angle.
7 couldnt see bad camera angle.
8 good
9 took an extra step coming in.
10 took an extra step coming in.
11 ok
12 skewed a bit.
13 ok.
14 ok.
15 ok.
16 slight mistake.
17 ok.
18 ok.
19 bit tentative coming in.
20 reached for it a bit.
21 ok.
22 jumped well but again skewed to one side.
He doesnt look particularly big which of course didnt stop Cloudy Lane winning yesterday,but given the weight hes set to carry and the way he jumps,i just cant see why hes trading as fav.
Given the fact Mccoy was at him the whole race is another concern,good luck if your on your going to need it.
Take a look at how he jumped the 22 fences.
1.very tentative and novicey.
2.very tentative and novicey.
3.not great.
4 couldnt see bad camera angle.
5 couldnt see bad camera angle.
6 couldnt see bad camera angle.
7 couldnt see bad camera angle.
8 good
9 took an extra step coming in.
10 took an extra step coming in.
11 ok
12 skewed a bit.
13 ok.
14 ok.
15 ok.
16 slight mistake.
17 ok.
18 ok.
19 bit tentative coming in.
20 reached for it a bit.
21 ok.
22 jumped well but again skewed to one side.
He doesnt look particularly big which of course didnt stop Cloudy Lane winning yesterday,but given the weight hes set to carry and the way he jumps,i just cant see why hes trading as fav.
Given the fact Mccoy was at him the whole race is another concern,good luck if your on your going to need it.
A heavy shower has arrived,eased off very quickly though and unlikely to affect the ground,will be keeping a close eye on the times today,although unless they get more rain between now and the National i cant see any significant change.
No doubt According To Pete supporters will be encouraged by the rain and the fact Mr Jefferson has had yet another winner in Attaglance,must admit had to steal a bit of 44 myself,but a word of caution,the Topham was only 5.2 seconds slow after that rain,it appears to have affected the other course more looking at the times.
247
shall i leave syncronized out of my 10 horse combination tricast bet then?
shall i leave syncronized out of my 10 horse combination tricast bet then?
Seems a significant move for Sunnyhillboy and plenty of money asking,in from 19 at 12.25 to 16.5,JP ?.
Weather Forecast
Friday - Dry overnight. Cloudy with sunny spells, possible showers 11C.
Saturday - Dry and sunny morning, possible showers pm 10C.
Friday - Dry overnight. Cloudy with sunny spells, possible showers 11C.
Saturday - Dry and sunny morning, possible showers pm 10C.
After studying race after race i have made my decision and this is final.
Sunnyhillboy has an outstanding chance. The way he has stayed on when upped in trip screams out to me that this trip could bring out further improvement.
He would have been much closer to Organisedconfusion in the Irish National if Richie McLernon not had to snatch him because of a wayward landing horse in front of him after 4 out. He lost plenty of momentum but stayed on really well in the home straight. He gets a healthy pull in the weights with the winner. I`m not at all concerned about his size or his jumping or the fact that AP has not turned down the ride on the Gold Cup winner(never in a month of sundays would he not do the honourable thing and ride his favourite owners best horse)..yet Sunnyhillboy is still at a meaty price possibly because he is being overlooked because of the AP factor.
Sunnyhillboy has an outstanding chance. The way he has stayed on when upped in trip screams out to me that this trip could bring out further improvement.
He would have been much closer to Organisedconfusion in the Irish National if Richie McLernon not had to snatch him because of a wayward landing horse in front of him after 4 out. He lost plenty of momentum but stayed on really well in the home straight. He gets a healthy pull in the weights with the winner. I`m not at all concerned about his size or his jumping or the fact that AP has not turned down the ride on the Gold Cup winner(never in a month of sundays would he not do the honourable thing and ride his favourite owners best horse)..yet Sunnyhillboy is still at a meaty price possibly because he is being overlooked because of the AP factor.
Pretty good Jase considering i only really concentrate on 1 or 2 horses.
I had the first two home last year,but with Oscar Time as my main bet.
I think i have read the race well over the last 30 years. I`ve had 6 winners and many placed. Unlike the Lincoln were i have only 1 winner
Sunnyhillboy will love the ground and trip. I like Old Vics especially on good ground and flat tracks..Cappa Bleu will run well even though certain trends dont fit his profile. GL
I had the first two home last year,but with Oscar Time as my main bet.
I think i have read the race well over the last 30 years. I`ve had 6 winners and many placed. Unlike the Lincoln were i have only 1 winner
Sunnyhillboy will love the ground and trip. I like Old Vics especially on good ground and flat tracks..Cappa Bleu will run well even though certain trends dont fit his profile. GL
cool.
yeh i had oscar as my main bet,but followed paul jones picks,and he ruled ballabriggs out because he was british trained(folly bearing in mind who trained him)
I hope he has made another error this year,by ruling sunnyhillboy out because he "creeps into the race"
yeh i had oscar as my main bet,but followed paul jones picks,and he ruled ballabriggs out because he was british trained(folly bearing in mind who trained him)
I hope he has made another error this year,by ruling sunnyhillboy out because he "creeps into the race"
Just to add ive had no interest in the Lincoln for over 10 years.
I have not read up on Paul Jones and everyone has their own angle but for me Sunnyhillboy did not really get into a battle at Cheltenham, and look at the way he stormed up the hill. Yes he was under pressure for a long way,but i would say there is much more to come over extreme distances. If you go through his form, post race race comments of stayed on well,stayed on or kept on well are mentioned time and time again. He is extremely well weighted. He has everything in his favour even if he has not been trained for the race specifically, he is certainly in fine form.
I have not read up on Paul Jones and everyone has their own angle but for me Sunnyhillboy did not really get into a battle at Cheltenham, and look at the way he stormed up the hill. Yes he was under pressure for a long way,but i would say there is much more to come over extreme distances. If you go through his form, post race race comments of stayed on well,stayed on or kept on well are mentioned time and time again. He is extremely well weighted. He has everything in his favour even if he has not been trained for the race specifically, he is certainly in fine form.
Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said: "We have maintained good ground and there will be a bit of good to soft out in the country on the National course.
"We had a band of rain on Monday which was very welcome.We thought we would be alright but the showers we were forecast did not materialise so we watered on Thursday night and last night to maintain safe jumping ground.
Going on the Grand National course is good, good to soft in places. On the Mildmay chase and hurdle courses it is good (from good, good to soft in
"We had a band of rain on Monday which was very welcome.We thought we would be alright but the showers we were forecast did not materialise so we watered on Thursday night and last night to maintain safe jumping ground.
Going on the Grand National course is good, good to soft in places. On the Mildmay chase and hurdle courses it is good (from good, good to soft in
These are not my fancies,they are the 4 horses with the best chances according to the statistics and pedigree of all recent winners.
Its interesting to not note that the 4 that came up were.
Sunnyhillboy(10 lb well in on his new mark,winner of Kim Muir,a arce associated with previous winners)
Rare Bob(winner of a grade 1 champion novice chase and 9lb lower than his mark 2 years ago)
Killyglen(travelling ok when falling last year and 5lb lower here)
According to pete(stables been in cracking form,and showing possibly his best form this season)
It looks like we will have ground similar to last year unless we have any showers,so on that basis i would prefer the first 3 mentioned.
My original fancy was Sunnyhillboy,and im not to worried that A P mccoy isnt on because i think he would struggle to do the weight.
Rare Bob is also extremely interesting on this better ground,he has been over these fences and generally is a very good jumper,lets hope his pedigree supplies the stamina it says he should have.
Its interesting to not note that the 4 that came up were.
Sunnyhillboy(10 lb well in on his new mark,winner of Kim Muir,a arce associated with previous winners)
Rare Bob(winner of a grade 1 champion novice chase and 9lb lower than his mark 2 years ago)
Killyglen(travelling ok when falling last year and 5lb lower here)
According to pete(stables been in cracking form,and showing possibly his best form this season)
It looks like we will have ground similar to last year unless we have any showers,so on that basis i would prefer the first 3 mentioned.
My original fancy was Sunnyhillboy,and im not to worried that A P mccoy isnt on because i think he would struggle to do the weight.
Rare Bob is also extremely interesting on this better ground,he has been over these fences and generally is a very good jumper,lets hope his pedigree supplies the stamina it says he should have.
insert race(correction)not arce in comments on sunny,lol
well well well
what a wancfestofafred
247 stop vanking and get a life u knobe
whatagreyday
long live the knobs
what a wancfestofafred
247 stop vanking and get a life u knobe
whatagreyday
long live the knobs
well done 247 you picked the winning horse,but not the winning jockey.
i am still shellshocked
i am still shellshocked
well if you think sunnyhill boy won then u are the fecking idiot your irish ****
Firstly rozelkid is a someone that is known to me that lives off the knowledge of those smarter than himself,nuff said about that,but should anyone on betfair wish to know exactly who this person is and how he operates i will supply full information regarding his activities and how he operates,end of(prepare to be shocked)
As regardes stats etc,as said not my fancies,but stats and pedigree facts,the only reason Sunnyhillboy was beaten was because it was ridden by a monkey who thinks hes jockey,R P Mclernon please retire,your ride was an embarressment to your profession,my granny could have given me a better ride.
S h it happens but what can you say,a nose????if mr mccoy got his arse in gear and wasnt such a lazy fat t wat he might have been on the right horse AS SAID ON HERE and won his 2nd national,yes MR FAT AR SE mccoy,ME,the guy that knows more about stats and breeding more than the guy that rode a horse that DIED today THAT you RODE that i SAID had not a hope in HELL of winning.
As regardes stats etc,as said not my fancies,but stats and pedigree facts,the only reason Sunnyhillboy was beaten was because it was ridden by a monkey who thinks hes jockey,R P Mclernon please retire,your ride was an embarressment to your profession,my granny could have given me a better ride.
S h it happens but what can you say,a nose????if mr mccoy got his arse in gear and wasnt such a lazy fat t wat he might have been on the right horse AS SAID ON HERE and won his 2nd national,yes MR FAT AR SE mccoy,ME,the guy that knows more about stats and breeding more than the guy that rode a horse that DIED today THAT you RODE that i SAID had not a hope in HELL of winning.
i actually know 247, and in all honestly he is probaly the unluckiest punter in the national i know.
i aint spoken with him today, but i imagine , at this moment, he has a pint in one hand , and a industrial rope in the other !
so sick, he once piled into that clan royal of jp's a few years back only for the stupid jockey to drop his whip and almost run off the course in the last furlong, he then backed kings john castle a few years back that was probably certain to get around the course and it planted its ****in feet at the start.
its so sick he will be laughing at this! he does read these races well, well, to what can be read within this type of race.
i aint spoken with him today, but i imagine , at this moment, he has a pint in one hand , and a industrial rope in the other !
so sick, he once piled into that clan royal of jp's a few years back only for the stupid jockey to drop his whip and almost run off the course in the last furlong, he then backed kings john castle a few years back that was probably certain to get around the course and it planted its ****in feet at the start.
its so sick he will be laughing at this! he does read these races well, well, to what can be read within this type of race.
you cheeky ****, lol, its just that i dont tip horses in the national , i dont have the cheek. but i did tip you a 25/1 winner 2 days ago, and the 16/1 winner the day before so you shouldnt grumble! lol
247
it has been a pleasure reading this thread,real intresting stuff
it has been a pleasure reading this thread,real intresting stuff
Why do jockeys like A p mccoy/walsh etc win most of the big pots? because theyre good at what they do.
The jockey on the winner is taking over from ruby,we all know that and have seen evidence at Cheltenham,lesson learnt,backing the right horse isnt enough,needs a good jockey as well.
The jockey on the winner is taking over from ruby,we all know that and have seen evidence at Cheltenham,lesson learnt,backing the right horse isnt enough,needs a good jockey as well.
so 247, in summary, what is your conclusion about following stats in the national.
the winner carrying 11stone 6 lb, cant we conclude that just putting a line through a horse becasue of all these so called " gospel stats " is making it more impossible to find the winner, for eg
Full finishing order of the 2012 Grand National , can you detail why you eliminated 6 out of these top 7? on those 10/12 stats you go by?
It will be interesting to see when to foolow them, and when to not!!!
1. Neptune Collonges (Daryl Jacob) 33-1
2. Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon) 16-1
3. Seabass (Ms Katie Walsh) 8-1JF
4. Cappa Bleu (Paul Moloney) 16-1
5. In Compliance (Niall Madden) 100-1
6. Ballabriggs
7. Hello Bud
the winner carrying 11stone 6 lb, cant we conclude that just putting a line through a horse becasue of all these so called " gospel stats " is making it more impossible to find the winner, for eg
Full finishing order of the 2012 Grand National , can you detail why you eliminated 6 out of these top 7? on those 10/12 stats you go by?
It will be interesting to see when to foolow them, and when to not!!!
1. Neptune Collonges (Daryl Jacob) 33-1
2. Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon) 16-1
3. Seabass (Ms Katie Walsh) 8-1JF
4. Cappa Bleu (Paul Moloney) 16-1
5. In Compliance (Niall Madden) 100-1
6. Ballabriggs
7. Hello Bud
i think its safe to say , that trying to spend a lot of time trying to pick 3/4 horses in the national to win with is almost impossible, the odds of your horse getting brought down, or impeded, or the jockey being a **** is quite probable.
and it would take a nutter for someone to take their own selections seriously in the publicity stunt which is the John Smiths Grand National.
Ok, finding the right animal on breeding is makes sense in theory...especially in high class flat races and the higher classes nh races, but the national is a no go for studying as far as im concerned.
i think most sensible punters would agree.
and it would take a nutter for someone to take their own selections seriously in the publicity stunt which is the John Smiths Grand National.
Ok, finding the right animal on breeding is makes sense in theory...especially in high class flat races and the higher classes nh races, but the national is a no go for studying as far as im concerned.
i think most sensible punters would agree.
dont know why Mclernon is getting a slagging, he brought the horse there , was just beaten by a horse that had classier form, and that had been aimed at the race all year.
Actually i think when reading back on what was said people will realise what a total numpty you are !!!yes i did say numpty(thats being polite,embarressment to humanity would be more accurate.yes that was the HUMAN RACE,which you are obviously not part of because you have an inability to read or understand the language in which we speak on here !!!)DOH.
I think i actually said "THESE WERE NOT MY SELECTIONS BUT WERE THE 4 HORSES THAT CAME UP ACCORDING TO THE STATS OF PREVIOUS WINNERS",feeling stupid are we???you should be you retarded apology for a human being,ffs,try reading and stop trying to be intelligent.
Not claims to fame but just facts according to what we had regarding previous winners,as i said,beaten a nose by a less than glorious ride(watch the replay),but i do love young chappies like you that want to comment after the event.,please continue in your dream,as you were
I think i actually said "THESE WERE NOT MY SELECTIONS BUT WERE THE 4 HORSES THAT CAME UP ACCORDING TO THE STATS OF PREVIOUS WINNERS",feeling stupid are we???you should be you retarded apology for a human being,ffs,try reading and stop trying to be intelligent.
Not claims to fame but just facts according to what we had regarding previous winners,as i said,beaten a nose by a less than glorious ride(watch the replay),but i do love young chappies like you that want to comment after the event.
,please continue in your dream,as you were
rozelkid"please god dont let me open my big gob until i actually know what im talking about" !!!obviously not going to happen any time in the near future!!!!!
thats a load of bollocks for a start, they were your selections, you have beeen telling me all week that they were on the phone you retard
its easy to say that they were not your selections, then what were you retard???
were they the ones that you said had no chance???
mmm, starting to this this post below is making sense by your comments on your last post!
MTanoraksallaroundme
Date Joined: 16 Mar 12
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14 Apr 12 21:30
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well well well
what a wancfestofafred
247 stop vanking and get a life u knobe
whatagreyday
long live the knobs
were they the ones that you said had no chance???
mmm, starting to this this post below is making sense by your comments on your last post!
MTanoraksallaroundme
Date Joined: 16 Mar 12
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14 Apr 12 21:30
Joined:
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| Topic/replies: 4 | Blogger: MTanoraksallaroundme's blog
well well well
what a wancfestofafred
247 stop vanking and get a life u knobe
whatagreyday
long live the knobs
i was imply asking you a simple question about stats...not breeding, your post on here was about breeding , whos the retard now????no need to get personal becasue you failed to pick a winner that went against all your stats!
was simply asking a question about stats...and the importance of them.
think you need a chill pill mate!! lol
think you need a chill pill mate!! lol
Neptune Collonges
Sea Bass
Cappa Bleu
In Compliance
im simply pointing out that stats and breeding dont meant **** in the grand national
and the result points that out today by the top 6 places!
Sea Bass
Cappa Bleu
In Compliance
im simply pointing out that stats and breeding dont meant **** in the grand national
and the result points that out today by the top 6 places!
Ill fated According to Pete was so unlucky and I really think he would have been involved in the finish. So sorry for all his connections. Good thread 247.
yeah, feel sick for the owner, the bbc did a video preview with the owner today who also breed him, he must be so cut up up , the horse is his pride and joy, kept him in his stable in his back garden since a baby and this happens today, he must have a bitter view of this national race now.
gutted for him.
gutted for him.
Rozelkid
You sound like a knuckle dragger so i am sure 24/7 realises life is too short to debate with you any longer.
The stats are not 100% obviously but the horse which came top on the stats was Sunnyhillboy who lost by the width of a bookies pen. The other 3 major stat horses failed to complete, which is unfortunate but nothing to do with the stats not being an excellent pointer.
All the Sunnyhillboy backers were very unfortunate today and thanks for the thread 24/7. By the way i told you Cappa Bleu would run well..
You sound like a knuckle dragger so i am sure 24/7 realises life is too short to debate with you any longer.
The stats are not 100% obviously but the horse which came top on the stats was Sunnyhillboy who lost by the width of a bookies pen. The other 3 major stat horses failed to complete, which is unfortunate but nothing to do with the stats not being an excellent pointer.
All the Sunnyhillboy backers were very unfortunate today and thanks for the thread 24/7. By the way i told you Cappa Bleu would run well
..
well angel gabrial, you sound like an ignorant fairy if you want to get personal.
im just making the point that stats dont mean nothing in the national , because what you are doing is eliminating the chances of 6 of the top 7 horses in the race today including the winner!
you are looking at those stats as being justified becasue the one you backed came a a whisker 2nd ( talking through your pocket) , what about the the other horses that were eliminated because of the stats??? this is why the bookies love people who go through stats etc..because its a complete load of bollocks! and the RESULT HAS PROVEN IT!!!!!!!!!
work out the maths of the horses that filled the top 7 places, with regards to the ratio of the field that were eliminated by using the stats...you are trying to beat astronomical odds , not to mention the nature of the race!
work that out , then come to a factual conclusion ...rather than fairy tale delusions! as you say..im a knuckle dragger , and even i can work that out without a calculator!!
yours sincerely
the realist!
im just making the point that stats dont mean nothing in the national , because what you are doing is eliminating the chances of 6 of the top 7 horses in the race today including the winner!
you are looking at those stats as being justified becasue the one you backed came a a whisker 2nd ( talking through your pocket) , what about the the other horses that were eliminated because of the stats??? this is why the bookies love people who go through stats etc..because its a complete load of bollocks! and the RESULT HAS PROVEN IT!!!!!!!!!
work out the maths of the horses that filled the top 7 places, with regards to the ratio of the field that were eliminated by using the stats...you are trying to beat astronomical odds , not to mention the nature of the race!
work that out , then come to a factual conclusion ...rather than fairy tale delusions! as you say..im a knuckle dragger , and even i can work that out without a calculator!!
yours sincerely
the realist!
The stats are only a guide..
The betting is only a guide..
You seem to think all the stats followers are blind to everything else. It is just another piece of the equation for assessing a possible elimination process. I brought up Cappa Bleu earlier who i fancied yet the stats were against it. So what!! If a stats horse wins say 7/10 are you saying the the stats are irrelevant ?
The betting is only a guide..
You seem to think all the stats followers are blind to everything else. It is just another piece of the equation for assessing a possible elimination process. I brought up Cappa Bleu earlier who i fancied yet the stats were against it. So what!! If a stats horse wins say 7/10 are you saying the the stats are irrelevant ?
Angel,
i've not been trying to get personal here,or cause arguments for arguments sake on this thread, im just trying to state simple facts.
I'm forever trying to get people who follow stats in a national race to realise this. If someone uses stats as a guide then what they are actually doing is eliminating the simple mathamatical facts without realising it, because the simple fact is that they are being blind to everything else by using them! you cant use something as a guide then choose not to use them beacuse all it is was a guide! it doesnt make sense becasue you are effecting the odds of selecting the winner..and being blind to everything else. you dont come to a conclusion on something and then dont use it if you believe you have whittled it down to the odds in your favour.
i find myself getting so fustrated when i hear people saying those exact words...Stats are a guide! betting is a guide! there not my selctions but its just a guide, what a complete load of bollocks! if thats not the case then why calculate them or try and work them out ??? its completley dillusuional , nevermind in a race like the national!
IF someone breaks down a 40 runner race , over 30 odd fences, then a stat guide by default is going against mathamatical probability !! thats exactly the point im making, it comes with the territory with the national becausue what people dont take into account is the IMPLIED ODDS in the national!!!! its the most important thing that retards who follow stats dont take into account.
but stat followers are blind to implied odds...and thats the point im making! especially in the national , on all the stats used in this thread the result is actually almost as worst as it could be, the talk of sunny being unlucky is just judgement being clouded again ...by the simple probability of sunnyhill winning...rather than not winning!
If you think the stas are a guide then its a bad guide , and thats a fact! theres no hiding from it!
i've not been trying to get personal here,or cause arguments for arguments sake on this thread, im just trying to state simple facts.
I'm forever trying to get people who follow stats in a national race to realise this. If someone uses stats as a guide then what they are actually doing is eliminating the simple mathamatical facts without realising it, because the simple fact is that they are being blind to everything else by using them! you cant use something as a guide then choose not to use them beacuse all it is was a guide! it doesnt make sense becasue you are effecting the odds of selecting the winner..and being blind to everything else. you dont come to a conclusion on something and then dont use it if you believe you have whittled it down to the odds in your favour.
i find myself getting so fustrated when i hear people saying those exact words...Stats are a guide! betting is a guide! there not my selctions but its just a guide, what a complete load of bollocks! if thats not the case then why calculate them or try and work them out ??? its completley dillusuional , nevermind in a race like the national!
IF someone breaks down a 40 runner race , over 30 odd fences, then a stat guide by default is going against mathamatical probability !! thats exactly the point im making, it comes with the territory with the national becausue what people dont take into account is the IMPLIED ODDS in the national!!!! its the most important thing that retards who follow stats dont take into account.
but stat followers are blind to implied odds...and thats the point im making! especially in the national , on all the stats used in this thread the result is actually almost as worst as it could be, the talk of sunny being unlucky is just judgement being clouded again ...by the simple probability of sunnyhill winning...rather than not winning!
If you think the stas are a guide then its a bad guide , and thats a fact! theres no hiding from it!
Angel,
i've not been trying to get personal here,or cause arguments for arguments sake on this thread, im just trying to state simple facts.
I'm forever trying to get people who follow stats in a national race to realise this. If someone uses stats as a guide then what they are actually doing is eliminating the simple mathamatical facts without realising it, because the simple fact is that they are being blind to everything else by using them! you cant use something as a guide then choose not to use them beacuse all it is was a guide! it doesnt make sense becasue you are effecting the odds of selecting the winner..and being blind to everything else. you dont come to a conclusion on something and then dont use it if you believe you have whittled it down to the odds in your favour.
i find myself getting so fustrated when i hear people saying those exact words...Stats are a guide! betting is a guide! there not my selctions but its just a guide, what a complete load of bollocks! if thats not the case then why calculate them or try and work them out ??? its completley dillusuional , nevermind in a race like the national!
IF someone breaks down a 40 runner race , over 30 odd fences, then a stat guide by default is going against mathamatical probability !! thats exactly the point im making, it comes with the territory with the national becausue what people dont take into account is the IMPLIED ODDS in the national!!!! its the most important thing that retards who follow stats dont take into account.
but stat followers are blind to implied odds...and thats the point im making! especially in the national , on all the stats used in this thread the result is actually almost as worst as it could be, the talk of sunny being unlucky is just judgement being clouded again ...by the simple probability of sunnyhill winning...rather than not winning!
If you think the stas are a guide then its a bad guide , and thats a fact! theres no hiding from it!
i've not been trying to get personal here,or cause arguments for arguments sake on this thread, im just trying to state simple facts.
I'm forever trying to get people who follow stats in a national race to realise this. If someone uses stats as a guide then what they are actually doing is eliminating the simple mathamatical facts without realising it, because the simple fact is that they are being blind to everything else by using them! you cant use something as a guide then choose not to use them beacuse all it is was a guide! it doesnt make sense becasue you are effecting the odds of selecting the winner..and being blind to everything else. you dont come to a conclusion on something and then dont use it if you believe you have whittled it down to the odds in your favour.
i find myself getting so fustrated when i hear people saying those exact words...Stats are a guide! betting is a guide! there not my selctions but its just a guide, what a complete load of bollocks! if thats not the case then why calculate them or try and work them out ??? its completley dillusuional , nevermind in a race like the national!
IF someone breaks down a 40 runner race , over 30 odd fences, then a stat guide by default is going against mathamatical probability !! thats exactly the point im making, it comes with the territory with the national becausue what people dont take into account is the IMPLIED ODDS in the national!!!! its the most important thing that retards who follow stats dont take into account.
but stat followers are blind to implied odds...and thats the point im making! especially in the national , on all the stats used in this thread the result is actually almost as worst as it could be, the talk of sunny being unlucky is just judgement being clouded again ...by the simple probability of sunnyhill winning...rather than not winning!
If you think the stas are a guide then its a bad guide , and thats a fact! theres no hiding from it!
less of your hitler talk 247, just becasue your horse did not win, or that someone asked you a question on the probibility of a stats based study succeeding ... doesnt mean you can give one of your hitler rants again about an individuals humanity.leave the humanity hitler rants for your mirror!!! haaaaaa lol
suppose you looked like a bit of a **** today when you assumed you won miles before the line, i can probaly understand why your a bit pissed off as you probably looked like a right ****!!!!!
Thx forthe thread. I thought we had won after the last! Bring on next year!
Rozey
You are not getting it are you!
Its all about what is more likely to happen, when people use the stats. If it was not more likely then the stats would not exist!!
Its not difficult to understand really. See i put in a top stats horse and my own idea of a national type. 2nd and 4th....NC was overlooked by thousands of punters because they thought he would struggle because of his profile. If i thought he had the right profile and did not fit the stats it would not put me off in the slightest. Yet generally the horses the fit the stats has a more credible profile.
You are not getting it are you!
Its all about what is more likely to happen, when people use the stats. If it was not more likely then the stats would not exist!!
Its not difficult to understand really. See i put in a top stats horse and my own idea of a national type. 2nd and 4th....NC was overlooked by thousands of punters because they thought he would struggle because of his profile. If i thought he had the right profile and did not fit the stats it would not put me off in the slightest. Yet generally the horses the fit the stats has a more credible profile.
stats are fine, if you are talking about a trainer/horse/owner record at a track...but not if a horse is grey!!!
or if hasnt run for 49 days!
or if it has run in 10 chases?
if you are eliminating 36 horses solely on these 12 stats or breeding trends then its almost a certainty every year that you will eliminate the winner.
you picked cappa bleu which the stats said would not win! 247 said he would pay you himself if it won ...in other words using stats made him put lines through 6 of the top 7 horses.
its got nothing to do with whats likely to happen, you cant do that in the national! its my point!!!!!!
im just saying that you cant follow stats of this kind in the national, the implied odds negate them.
just deluding that it helps is crazy! look at the result!
my closing statement is that if you want to try and pick the winner for the national, then dont solely create a small list on the basis of stats..we see it in the papers every year where the industry suggest you use them.
youve said it yourself ...using stats to try and predict what is likely to happen!
ITS THE GRAND NATIONAL, WHERE HALF OF THE FIELD DOESN'T FINISH!
or if hasnt run for 49 days!
or if it has run in 10 chases?
if you are eliminating 36 horses solely on these 12 stats or breeding trends then its almost a certainty every year that you will eliminate the winner.
you picked cappa bleu which the stats said would not win! 247 said he would pay you himself if it won ...in other words using stats made him put lines through 6 of the top 7 horses.
its got nothing to do with whats likely to happen, you cant do that in the national! its my point!!!!!!
im just saying that you cant follow stats of this kind in the national, the implied odds negate them.
just deluding that it helps is crazy! look at the result!
my closing statement is that if you want to try and pick the winner for the national, then dont solely create a small list on the basis of stats..we see it in the papers every year where the industry suggest you use them.
youve said it yourself ...using stats to try and predict what is likely to happen!
ITS THE GRAND NATIONAL, WHERE HALF OF THE FIELD DOESN'T FINISH!
What an excellent thread 247. Your analysis of the stats and breeding some of the best I have come across. I think it is a bit harsh to call Mclernon a monkey. He gave the horse an excellent ride up until the elbow where unfortunately he made a mess of it. After watching race again luck was certainly against you. Rare Bob pinged te first 5 fences before getting brought down by not a horse but a jockey. Killyglen's race finished at the canal turn the first time and Robbie Power should be ashamed if he actually claimed his riding fee after such a soft exit. According to Pete was well in contention till been brought down by On His Own and to lose his life in such circumstances so so sad for all connected. Looking ahead you would have to think Sunnyhillboy will have a great chance of winning the race next year, as well as On His Own who was tanking when falling.
Just watched National again. You're right about the Killyglen jockey. He looked to have jumped that fence fine.
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