1MillionChallengeMan

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,384.34 (+38%)

Hello again.

Well its been a quiet week with not much doing for me on the Horseracing front.  I won on LORD OF THE SHADOWS on Monday but lost on SCRIPTWRITER (Fell) and MASTERFUL ACT (3rd) in my 50/50 bet. And on Wednesday I won on POQUELIN at Cheltenham.

What's happened is the start of the Flat racing season, and that means it's going to be a bit quiet for me for a little while until I have some solid form to go on. One of my system parameters is that I don't back any horses which haven't had the benefit of a recent run. This little rule ensures that my horses have some experience under their belt and that they are fully fit since they have had a recent 'tune up' run. It also protects me from 'false favourites' who are not really fully fit as they haven't had a run for 108 days for example. So I have to be a bit patient at this time of year.

But just like Buses three have come along at once today! I have backed YES TOM in the 2.50 at AYR for a PLACE bet. His Ayr form reads 2221 and he has the assistance of the champ AP McCoy in the saddle today. I have also backed COLLECT ART in the 5.30 at BRIGHTON to win at 2.49 and RONINSKI to win in the 3.35 at WOLVERHAMPTON at 1.44. I staked 2.5% on each of the Win bets and the Place bet is for a 1% Win target.

Well I'm off to the bookies to get my cash bets on! See you soon.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,387.38 (+38%)

Hello again,

Today is the day I do my weekly update. I had two winners yesterday - SPANISH TREASURE at 1.43 and CHRYSANDER at 2.16, no losses. I backed a total of 12 bets last week. 3 lost and 9 won, including 2 Place bets. My win target for the week was £65 and I am pleased to report that this was exceeded as winnings were actually + £86.37.

I start this week at £1,387.38 and my 5% win target for the week is £69 which would see me end the week at £1,456.38. This gives me a daily average win requirement of £9.85 per day over seven days.

I am hopeful of starting the week with a profit and I have backed three horses today. Richard Hannon has a very warm favourite going at Windsor this evening in the 5.30 race with LORD OF THE SHADOWS and the selection will be trying to go one better than the 2nd he achieved on his debut. I staked 2.5% (£34) on the selection. Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes are the top Trainer/Jockey at Windsor.

The other race I am having an interest in today is the 3.00 at HEXHAM which is a Class 4 Novices Hurdle. This is now a 10 runner race and looks to be between the favourite and the second favourite SCRIPTWRITER and MASTERFUL ACT. I split a stake of 2.5% and put £17 on each of them. I got 2.07 on the jolly and 2.82 on Masterful Act. It is currently 6/1 bar those two so I am hoping I won't get done by something at 6/1 or bigger and I want the second favourite to win for the profit on this bet.

Must get a cup of tea, gasping! T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,342.47

Hello again,

BIG BUCKS and ZARKANDAR both won for me on Thursday. What a star that Big Bucks is. Yesterday I backed ALBERTAS RUN for a Place (2nd) and I lost on Paul Hanagans LAS VERGLAS STAR at Newcastle.

Well it's here again - the greatest jumps racing spectacle in the world The Grand National. Don't expect any tips from me on that one though - you pays your money and takes your choice there. I will enjoy the race though and I'll probably have a small cash Each Way on something at my local bookies. But as far as seriously trying to win money is concerned there are only two horses for me today and they are FINIANS RAINBOW and PEDDLERS CROSS in the 2.15 and 2.50 races at AINTREE.

When I back horses to win they are invariably selected by my system. This is very important because it takes the 'personal opinion' out of the equation and just leaves me with a cool and calculating system selection which I have a lot of faith in. As I said the other day - they don't all win but I know I'll win far more than I lose as my system has a 74% success rate. I staked 2.5% (£33) on each of them.

I also had a £10 Win Fourfold on CHELSEA, MAN UTD, TOTTENHAM and CELTIC to win their Home matches this afternoon. Combined odds are 2.5:1 so £10 gets you £25 profit if they all oblige.

Well whatever you're backing in the Grand National I wish you Good Luck. Enjoy the racing, see you soon.
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,318.12 (+31%)

Hello there,

well it's here again - the AINTREE Festival. Don't you just love it, the spectacle of it all. Fantastic horses jumping the most testing fences in the world. Glory, glory!

The Cheltenham stars are out in force and I would not want to be a Layer at Aintree today. A quick update on my week so far: On Monday I had a successful Place bet with SHERIFF HALL,(3rd). On Tuesday I backed VAMIZI at Exeter but he fell. And yesterday my system selected GREENFLASH to win at Lingfield (1st). So not much financial progress this week yet due to the faller.

Paul Nicholls has his best horses running at Aintree over the next few days and I'll be backing most of them. Today I'll be keeping faith with BIG BUCKS in the 2.00 race and ZARKANDAR in the 2.30. I have backed them on my Betfair account and also with Paddy Power. Did you know that Paddy Power offer Faller Insurance bets? How fantastic is that. When you consider those Aintree fences I think it's worth taking a slightly shorter price for the guarantee that if your horse falls you get your money back! I got 4/7 and 8/11 respectively on those bets.

My system has a better than 73% success rate for predicting probable winners. That's a very good success rate indeed, so for these 'system' selections I allocate 2.5% of the bank as a stake on each of them (1/40th). Now obviously they don't all win and I stand to lose 5% today, but over time if I just keep staking 2.5% as regular as clockwork on each of them I should make very good progress.

Thanks for your visit today, enjoy the racing!

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,301 (+30%)

Hello there,

Last week I had two losers and nine winners which were ARALDUR, IRIE UTE, E STREET BOY, BEAR DANCING, MAJURO, REDAIR, CONNECTIVITY, RANGITOTO, and ICANRUNCANYOU. Most of them were Place only bets but seven of them came 1st and the other two finished 2nd.

Obviously I would have had to stake less on them and would have won more if I had backed them all to win! But then I would have lost my 'edge'. My edge is to have a very high probability of consistent success and that is for my selections to finish 1st, 2nd, or 3rd and betting to win a consistent percentage each time. If I start messing about with that philosophy and a bigger percentage just achieve places and don't win I would lose my edge, so consistency is the key to my approach.

My win target this week is 5% of the current bank which is £65 for the week, giving me a daily average of £9 per day over seven days and my goal is to finish the week at £1,366 or better.

At this time of the year with the start of the Flat season you really have to be a bit careful as there are so many Maidens and unknown quantities. One of my golden rules is to only back horses which have had a recent run within 40 days, so at least I can't get caught out by a short priced favourite which hasn't had a run for 185 days!

Today I am backing SHERIFF HALL in the 3.00 at KELSO for a Place. This is a ten runner handicap likely to be run at a good pace which should suit the selection and I am hopeful of getting a result with 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. My stake was £21 to win £13 (1%). As a friend said recently, if I lose I won't be going broke anytime soon! And I am in this for the long haul. But hey, three or four years to a £Million, it has to be worth the effort.

T.T.F.N.

Hello  there,

My horse racing system tells me that BEAR DANCING in the 5.30 at NEWCASTLE has a good chance of winning the race. However there are eight runners in this race.

My headline today is 'On the Likelyhood of success'. What I mean by that is that there are true odds and Bookmakers odds. On strict probability the odds should be 7/1. But the odds compiled by the Bookmakers factor in all known parameters such as form, weight, going, trainer, jockey, market support and every other known factor to produce the race odds of 13/8. But if you take the Win odds the bookmaker still has seven other horses riding for him against your one selection, that's the bookmakers 'edge'.

My little system has a very high strike rate and if the selection gets beat it usually gets beaten narrowly and comes second or third. So my 'edge' has to be to back a horse to get a PLACE so that I win far more times than I lose. So its BEAR DANCING to get a Place for me today. I need to stake 2% to get a 1% win on the Place odds.

Have to dash, kettles boiling!

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,254.55 (+25%)

Hello again,

well my Dutching experiment on my test bank started off with a clobbering on Monday and is down £100. I have decided to cover every horse in the race with Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers where the overound allows me to make a profit. I need to set up multiple accounts to do that and I am in the process of moving money around at the moment, so I'll re-launch that project next week when all is 'in place'.

Still my main bank on my £Million challenge is OK and I had 'Choc' Thornton's 1,000th winner on Monday ARALDUR and yesterday I had a successful Place bet on IRIE UTE in the 3.10 at Lingfield.

My horse racing system has selected E STREET BOY in the 4.10 at Hereford today. This is David Pipe's sole representative at the meeting today and Tom Scudamore's only ride. The odds are a bit skinny at 1/2 as it is after all a thirteen runner handicap. In the Racing Post it says it will be "very surprising if he doesn't follow up" (his win on Sunday), so I hope they are right. My stake is 2% to gain 1%, so £24 relative to my bank.

That's all for today, see you soon.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,230.36 (+23%)

Hello again, well following some good successes last week it turned out to be a 'static' week overall as my losses cancelled out my gains, which is par for the course on a 50/50 flip a coin scenario, but I know I can do better than that. On the subject of compound growth, it is the nature of the beast that growth seems slow at first, but as we go along and the gains are added in to the pot the stakes gradually get bigger and bigger because we are always betting in proportion to our 'new' resource.

It appears I am doing the right thing according to 'the perfect gambler' a Mr Kelly - who I have just read about on Wikipedia - where consistent staking to win a set percentage/amount is highly recommended. I don't pretend to follow all the math on that page, but it is encouraging that the math theory strongly supports what I am trying to do.

This week I have set up a separate trading bank to field test a betting alternative for comparable results. On this other 'test' bank I will be betting on multiple selections in chosen races for a guaranteed overall profit if one of the backed selections wins. This is nothing new - it's known as 'Dutching' after Dutch Schultz who didn't want to lose!

I'll be comparing the results at the end of the week and if my 'Dutching' proves profitable I will include the selections I am backing in my normal bets here for you so you can follow them if you wish. For my standard bank I have backed ARALDUR in the 3.30 at TOWCESTER for a stake of £34 to win 1% (£12). And for my Dutching bet on my test bank I have selected the 2.10 at PLUMPTON where I backed Number 7 SOCCERJACKPOT, Number 9 RAGDOLLIANNA, & Number 10 LEITZU. Stakes were £45, £27, & £29 respectively to win a net profit of £15 if one of them wins.

Should be an interesting week and I'll keep you informed. Thanks for your visit today. T.T.F.N.

Hi,

A feast of racing on offer this afternoon - check out that prize money at MEYDAN - incredible! Have to be quick with the message today. I have backed JJ THEJETPLANE & ROCKET MAN to win in the 1.15 and 3.05 respectively and in the 2.25 MAHBOOBA to PLACE and in the 5.35 GIO PONTI to PLACE. Profit target 1% on each of them.

Hopefully I will make a profit, but even if I don't I'll still enjoy the fantastic spectacle of this top quality racing. have a good weekend.

Hello there.

Yesterday I had wins with MAURISCA and MISTER CHANCER and A BRIDGE TOO FAR, no losses. Today my system has picked out AMERICAN LADIE in the 2.10 at CHEPSTOW and I have backed that one at 2% at around 4/9.  Also QUINDER SPRING in the 4.35 at CARLISLE but I have a slightly different strategy for that one.

At CARLISLE this afternoon I am backing the first and second favourites in three races and obviously I will make greater profits if the second favourites win. The races are:2.20 Number 2 LADY BLUESKY and Number 3 OUEST ECLAIR, 3.25 Number 6 CLASSIC HENRI and Number 7 SAMIZDAT, and in the 4.35 Number 1 QUINDER SPRING and Number 4 BALLYCARRON LAD.

I staked £12 (1%) on each of them and I am hopeful of makiing an overall profit today. My total investment is c.8%.When I am backing two horses in one race I don't like to risk more than I would if I was backing just one horse, because if you lose then it is double the pain! So I split my stake and put half on each so I don't end up banging the floor if/when I get turned over by an outsider. For me its all about betting within your comfort zone and I'm not really comfortable taking big risks and I would rather get to where I'm going slowly than in a sweat. If its a race between a Hare and a Tortoise I'm definitely the Tortoise!

Hopefully I will make an overall profit today. I need about another £31 to hit my weekly target this week.
T.T.F.N.