1MillionChallengeMan

Hello  there,

My horse racing system tells me that BEAR DANCING in the 5.30 at NEWCASTLE has a good chance of winning the race. However there are eight runners in this race.

My headline today is 'On the Likelyhood of success'. What I mean by that is that there are true odds and Bookmakers odds. On strict probability the odds should be 7/1. But the odds compiled by the Bookmakers factor in all known parameters such as form, weight, going, trainer, jockey, market support and every other known factor to produce the race odds of 13/8. But if you take the Win odds the bookmaker still has seven other horses riding for him against your one selection, that's the bookmakers 'edge'.

My little system has a very high strike rate and if the selection gets beat it usually gets beaten narrowly and comes second or third. So my 'edge' has to be to back a horse to get a PLACE so that I win far more times than I lose. So its BEAR DANCING to get a Place for me today. I need to stake 2% to get a 1% win on the Place odds.

Have to dash, kettles boiling!