1MillionChallengeMan

Hi everyone,
have to be quick - much to do. I am most grateful for the help I am receiving - thanks very much Guys! I will update re' progress on Monday.

One of my helpers has suggested a Football 'Trixie' today. A Trixie is three Doubles and a Treble and if it comes off my £100 stake will return a profit of over £600! The teams I have backed are:
CZECH DRUHA LIGA - FCBRNO to beat Bohemians Prague at 21/20
ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE - WEST BROM to beat Stoke at 11/10
& SWEDISH ALLSVENSKAN - ELFSBORG to beat Malm at 17/10
So thats 4 X £25 = £100

I have also backed a STOP AT A WINNER bet at GOODWOOD covering the first three races:
GOODWOOD 2.15 Number 1 DRUNKEN SAILOR at evens, 1.5%,
GOODWOOD 2.50 THE UNNAMED FAVOURITE, should be around 2/1, stake 1.5%
& GOODWOOD 3.20 Number 3 POETS VOICE at 7/4, 3%. Total for this bet = 6%

I have also invested in a Betting Bot to put my bets on for me and free up my time! I'll tell you a bit more about that another time. Gasping for a cuppa! - Catch you later.
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £4581.08

Hello again,

just a quick update today. Progress has been slow with my recent wins just maintaining a slender lead over my losses, you know the score one step forwards then two steps backwards! Then you have to recover what you just lost.

A good strategy for winning with Football bets is to back a team to Win and then cover the Draw. For example yesterday, knowing that BOLTON are no mugs and would give MAN CITY a tough game I staked 2.5% £112.50 on MAN CITY to Win at 1.82 (4/5) and then covered that with a bet on the Draw for £40 at 3.8 and this gave me a net profit of £52 on the result. If the match was a Draw I would have broke even, which is better than losing!

You can only do this when the odds allow it. This evening for example MAN UTD are at Home to TOTTENHAM and I am just going for a 2.5% (£112.50) Home win for MAN UTD with no Draw cover bet because the odds on MAN UTD are too short at 4/6 and this reduces the profit margin if you were to cover the Draw aswell. So its a MAN UTD win or Bust for me tonight!

I did consider a correct score perm of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 but only 50% of the last 26 results between them were one of these, so on balance the 'safest' option is to go for the straight Home win.

That's all for today.
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £4,492.64

Hello again,

firstly - what about that BLUE TIGER in the 2.15 yesterday? How can a horse which hasn't left the stalls and has its head stuck up in the air with the jockey off be considered a runner? Punters had NO CHANCE with the horse. So well done to Paddy Power and Sky Bet for refunding all losing bets on that one and shame on all those who didn't!

I was 'lucky' because I had selected the race as a 'Dutching' prospect so I still managed to collect on the winner EASTERN DESTINY but I don't like to see things like that happen - it's hard enough for us to win aint it?

Today I have backed FIRST FAST NOW in the 2.15 at MUSSELBURGH. This horse really is in The Last Chance Saloon for me today after a string of seconds and if it doesn't get its head in front today I'll give up on it. I have also backed SAVED BY JOHN in the 6.40 at WORCESTER this evening and it should win.

I Backed and Layed the Draw in the MAN CITY game last night but tonight I have just gone for two straight WIN bets with ARSENAL and COPENHAGEN to win their matches this evening. Skinny odds all around today and I will be disappointed if I don't get four out of four!

Have to dash - starving and no lunch yet at 1.35. T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £4.250.99

Hello again,

well its been an up and down week for me this last week re' the Horseracing with several good days and then one disastrous day on Thursday when I lost all my gains and then some. Made a recovery yesterday though - thanks to Zero Hype's excellent advice re 'Dutching' - go check out his blog if you haven't already - plus had a couple of single horse wins with REX IMPERATOR and WEST BRIT so managed to get back to 'square one' for the week.

Today I am a really happy bunny because of the Football. When I open my RacingPost I see opportunity everywhere and I am literally spoilt for choice. One of my favourite ways to make money from the football is to LAY THE DRAW and then BACK THE DRAW when a goal is scored - and I have done this with five teams so far today and thats not on the Big teams which I will get around to later before the kick-off. So later on I'll be doing that re ARSENAL, CHELSEA, MAN UTD, LIVERPOOL, & MAN CITY.

Because these are 'Trades' you can risk substantially more than you would on an ordinary 'Gamble' because you'll be closing the position to your advantage when a goal is scored, so I am happy to 'risk' up to 25% of my bank in total on my trades. It means I have to sit by my computer for 90 minutes waiting for goals to be scored but hey, it's better than working for someone else! I'm with Lord Sugar on that one - "Wild horses couldn't drag me back to that!"

I've also had a 'Gamble' to much lesser stakes on a Saturday Football Yankee on ALDERSHOT,NOTTS COUNTY, BOURNEMOUTH and IPSWICH at £10 x 11 bets = £110. Plus a 'Trixie' on ARSENAL, CHELSEA and MAN UTD to win their Away matches. My Trixie is to £25 stakes and is for three Doubles and a Treble so that's £100 there. My Yankee and Trixie are with cash as I fancy a nice curry with the family later on!

Good luck to you whatever you're on.
T.T.F.N.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £4276.91

Hello again,

sorry for the gap in reporting - summer days are devilish busy for me and I don't like to tap away on the keys unless I've got something important to say really. First of all as to progress; I lost £724 on Lay bets since my first doubling point and this took me back to £1,276. This was primarily due to massively increased Lay liabilities according to Kelly staking. However, using the same criterion for Back bets progress has been spectacular in the other direction, hence my balance now being at £4276.91. You'll see why in a moment.

Some of my gains were achieved using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and in my opinion these are an absolutely essential weapon to have in your armoury.

This is because there are many races where the Betfair market is indecisive as to which horse is the definite favourite right up until seconds before the off and if you are primarily backing favourites, as I do, you can come a cropper if you back the wrong horse and this is most annoying when you see the SP return the favourite at 100/30 and you weren't on it!

In these circumstances I get around this problem by backing 'The Unnamed Favourite' with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker - of which there are several to choose from these days, and this guarantees I will be on the favourite - whichever one it eventually is.

My Header today is 'HEDGING YOUR BETS' - and what this means is literally not keeping all your eggs in one basket. For example; tipsters will normally say 'back this horse to win' so you do and it loses and you are disappointed and out of pocket, whereas I have a little strategy which provides me with regular wins day in, day out, and I'll share this one with you today.

I don't know exactly how true this is, but I read that 80% of winning favourites occur in the first three races at meetings. Well true or not I am having enormous success with it.

First of all you have to appreciate that the odds reflect the probability of a horse winning. For example an even money favourite has a 50% probability, a 2/1 horse a 33% probability, 3/1 a 25% probability etc. (I won't confuse the picture with over rounds). With this in mind I look at meetings where the first three favourites are no greater than 3/1 and generally with no more than one odds-on favourite, if any, preferably no odds-on. I can usually find at least one and probably a couple of meetings each day which fit this criteria.

When you have your suspects lined up you then back them in a STOP AT A WINNER format to bag a profit whichever one wins. This is what I mean by 'Hedging your bets' as you are now spreading your probability of success over three horses instead of pinning all your hopes on just one horse. Sometimes, quite often, they all win! Equally often only one of them wins, so on balance the sensible strategy is to go for one winner. Simply decide on a maximum sum you are prepared to lose (mine is 10%) and do your math per the odds to apportion that to each horse so that if you don't get a winner until the third selection you still recover the previous stakes and make a profit overall. My book explains this in detail, (a free downloadable copy is available at www.7freesystems.com).

If you have the time and they are all clear favourites you can do this on Betfair race by race. Alternatively if you are busy or there is any doubt as to the actual favourite simply put on a Stop At A Winner be on 'The Unnamed Favourite' with one of those Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and get on with your day. Just check back later to see which one won!

Here's my results for the last few days so you can see how this works;

Thurs. Aug 4th HAYDOCK   3rd race 4/6
               BRIGHTON  1st race 6/4
               YARMOUTH  3rd race 11/4
               CHEPSTOW  2nd race 1/3
               FOLKESTONE 1st race 11/10 (SP 1/2)
               SANDOWN   2nd race 5/4
Fri. Aug 5th   BRIGHTON  LOST
               LINGFIELD 1st race 15/8
               WORCESTER 1st race 3/1
               NEWMARKET LOST
               HAYDOCK   1st race 5/2
Sat. Aug 6th   REDCAR    1st race 1/1
               LINGFIELD 2nd race 2/5
SUN. Aug 7th   LEICESTER 2nd race 8/11
               WINDSOR   1st race 5/2

Today I have gone for WOLVERHAMPTON and LINGFIELD. The Wolverhampton favourites are pretty clear - unless there are any late non-runners, but the Lingfield 2.30 is a bit trickly so I'll put that one on as 'the unnamed favourite' with a Bookie to be sure of being on the right horse! 

Good luck with this little system if you choose to use it. Cheers for now.

P.S. Remember - if you can make just 5% per week £1,000 becomes a £Million in less than three years!
       

Start Bank £1,000
Current bank £2162.62 (+116%)

Hello again.

Well following my massive learning curve lately with regard to Kelly staking and Trading etc I spent the weekend poring over results tables for the last eight years! These gave me the percentage returns for all odds together with probability factors. What it all boils down to is that I can now bet with a much greater degree of confidence in the long term outcome and I totally believe that I absolutely must win! I'm bound to take my 'hits' along the way but these will be no more than I expect.

Consequently I am now employing half Kelly stakes for my Lay bets and my bets and stakes for today are therefore as follows; At AYR 4.00 MARINERS LODGE @ 3.70 £60 for 7.5% liability, 5.00 ODINS RAVEN @ 4.0 £54 for 7.5% liability, 5.30 JALDARSHAN @ 4.0 £54 for 7.5% liability.

At Yarmouth 4.45 LIBERTY SHIP @ 4.0 £54 for 7.5% liability. At Windsor 6.10 NOT BAD FOR A BOY @ 3.45 £55 for 6.25% liability, 8.10 DUMBARTON @ 3.4 £55 for 6.25% liability. And at UTTOXETER 6.30 Number 2 FASHIONABLE GAL @ 3.15 £50 for 5% liability.

Man, what a blast!Talk about pressing the accelerator. Catch you later folks.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £2026.84 (+102%)

Hello again,
well I know I should be cheering loudly at achieving my first Doubling but its been a real struggle to get here! And despite my best efforts I still have plenty of days where it all goes horribly wrong. The other day I lost 10% in one day for example. But you just have to be philosophical about it because nobody can win all the time and you have to take losing runs some times. Losing runs can be very disheartening as you wonder if you have lost your touch, or you may even lose faith in your strategies.

I have enlisted some help in the form of 'inside information'. By that I mean I recently sent a cheque off to a well known service provider who provides information on 'stable gambles' etc. I won't be able to share these with you as I am sworn to secrecy but if the service is successful I could share the provider with you by private message, but we'll see what happens first.

Today I have Layed DRUMMOYNE at odds of 3.75 in the 2.10 at CATTERICK for a maximum Liability of 2.5% = £53 I pay out if it wins.

I am also backing LADY JOURDAIN to win with a 5% stake in the 2.40 at Catterick and if that one disappoints me I will back FOL HOLLOW with 7.5% in the 4.40 at Catterick.

I have also backed two horses to Win in a 5% Win Double bet today and they are Worcester 3.20 Number 1 ALL THE WINDS and LEICESTER 8.25 Number 3 NUMERAL. These are at too skinny odds to back individually, 4/9 and 4/11, so I put them in a Win Double to get a worthwhile return if they both oblige. All The Winds is ridden by AP McCoy who failed me on three favourites yesterday so I'm hoping he can make amends for me today and Numeral is a Richard Hannon trained horse ridden by Richard Hughes and is a very warm order to win this evening.

Have to dash, much to do - still got to check out Sandown this evening. Catch you later my friends.
T.T.F.N.

Hello again,

Thanks for checking in on my Blog today. I'll be updating my progress on Monday. My new comprehensive strategies of TRADES, and PLACE and LAY bets are beginning to pay off nicely and whereas my original target was 5% growth per week there are now many days when I can make 5% per day, which is pretty phenominal I have to say. For example it brings the time scale down to achieve my feat to an incredible five months instead of three/four years!

Realistically though you just can't maintain that level of growth everyday, sadly, as some days you lose or don't make much at all. Still my achievement of the goal will definitely be much quicker than I had intended!

Today I had a list of LAY bets which has been gradually crossed through for one reason and another and I am left with four BACK bets today. I have backed two horses to PLACE 1st, 2nd, 3rd and they are NEWBURY 2.20 Number 3 DEACON BLUES @ 1.66 and RIPON 3.25 Number 2 MOTIVADO @ 1.84.

The two horses I have backed to WIN today are NEWMARKET 2.35 Number 11 WILD COCO @ 2.30 and RIPON 2.15 Number 1 KIMBALI @ 1.77. These are too short to Trade so I have gone for 'ordinary' Win bets on them. My stakes were 2.5% on each of my bets for a total risk of 10%.

The rain is lashing down on my window, so if it's like this on the race tracks we'll probably see a few 'shock' results today. I just hope they don't include the races with my bets!

Good luck to you whatever you're on. Bye for now.

Hi Guys.

Have to be quick the Sky engineer has arrived to install my Sky Multi-room to my TV in my study - so's I can watch racing while the family watch Eastenders or whatever!

Laying 15 horses today! - with 1% as a Lay stake on each of them. Max odds of 7/2. I'll let you know how I get on tomorrow.

Cheers for now.

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £1,708.04 (+70%)

Hello again,
well the bank is climbing again, now all I have to do is maintain the momentum. I had four out of four on Wednesday and two out of three yesterday so things are looking up.

Today is really tricky stuff, really tricky. Lots of highly competetive fields with multiple options. I managed to narrow it down to two selections though; SAHPRESA in the 3.00 at NEWMARKET looks a good prospect for at least getting a PLACE so I staked 2.5% on that, and also entered a 5% Trade by backing the selection at 3.25 and then put on a LAY bet in the 'Keep At In Play' market at 2.74 to the same stake. This locks in a 2.5% profit if the horse wins. If I can get the Lay bet matched before the race starts I can go for the 'Green Screen' option and guarantee a profit whichever horse wins. Hey, I'm really getting a handle on this Trading business!

My other interest is in the 4.20 at YORK where I have a similar PLACE and TRADE strategy thing going on with FIREBEAM. However I am slighlty perturbed by the market drift of this one. I don't know if its just 'Market Mentality' driving the price out or maybe someone knows something I don't! I'll be paying close attention near the off to close the trade I entered at 4.9 odds and then I will definitely go for the 'Green Screen' on this one if I can.

Gasping for a cuppa! T.T.F.N.