1MillionChallengeMan

Start Bank £1,000
Current Bank £4276.91

Hello again,

sorry for the gap in reporting - summer days are devilish busy for me and I don't like to tap away on the keys unless I've got something important to say really. First of all as to progress; I lost £724 on Lay bets since my first doubling point and this took me back to £1,276. This was primarily due to massively increased Lay liabilities according to Kelly staking. However, using the same criterion for Back bets progress has been spectacular in the other direction, hence my balance now being at £4276.91. You'll see why in a moment.

Some of my gains were achieved using Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and in my opinion these are an absolutely essential weapon to have in your armoury.

This is because there are many races where the Betfair market is indecisive as to which horse is the definite favourite right up until seconds before the off and if you are primarily backing favourites, as I do, you can come a cropper if you back the wrong horse and this is most annoying when you see the SP return the favourite at 100/30 and you weren't on it!

In these circumstances I get around this problem by backing 'The Unnamed Favourite' with a Best Odds Guaranteed bookmaker - of which there are several to choose from these days, and this guarantees I will be on the favourite - whichever one it eventually is.

My Header today is 'HEDGING YOUR BETS' - and what this means is literally not keeping all your eggs in one basket. For example; tipsters will normally say 'back this horse to win' so you do and it loses and you are disappointed and out of pocket, whereas I have a little strategy which provides me with regular wins day in, day out, and I'll share this one with you today.

I don't know exactly how true this is, but I read that 80% of winning favourites occur in the first three races at meetings. Well true or not I am having enormous success with it.

First of all you have to appreciate that the odds reflect the probability of a horse winning. For example an even money favourite has a 50% probability, a 2/1 horse a 33% probability, 3/1 a 25% probability etc. (I won't confuse the picture with over rounds). With this in mind I look at meetings where the first three favourites are no greater than 3/1 and generally with no more than one odds-on favourite, if any, preferably no odds-on. I can usually find at least one and probably a couple of meetings each day which fit this criteria.

When you have your suspects lined up you then back them in a STOP AT A WINNER format to bag a profit whichever one wins. This is what I mean by 'Hedging your bets' as you are now spreading your probability of success over three horses instead of pinning all your hopes on just one horse. Sometimes, quite often, they all win! Equally often only one of them wins, so on balance the sensible strategy is to go for one winner. Simply decide on a maximum sum you are prepared to lose (mine is 10%) and do your math per the odds to apportion that to each horse so that if you don't get a winner until the third selection you still recover the previous stakes and make a profit overall. My book explains this in detail, (a free downloadable copy is available at www.7freesystems.com).

If you have the time and they are all clear favourites you can do this on Betfair race by race. Alternatively if you are busy or there is any doubt as to the actual favourite simply put on a Stop At A Winner be on 'The Unnamed Favourite' with one of those Best Odds Guaranteed bookmakers and get on with your day. Just check back later to see which one won!

Here's my results for the last few days so you can see how this works;

Thurs. Aug 4th HAYDOCK   3rd race 4/6
               BRIGHTON  1st race 6/4
               YARMOUTH  3rd race 11/4
               CHEPSTOW  2nd race 1/3
               FOLKESTONE 1st race 11/10 (SP 1/2)
               SANDOWN   2nd race 5/4
Fri. Aug 5th   BRIGHTON  LOST
               LINGFIELD 1st race 15/8
               WORCESTER 1st race 3/1
               NEWMARKET LOST
               HAYDOCK   1st race 5/2
Sat. Aug 6th   REDCAR    1st race 1/1
               LINGFIELD 2nd race 2/5
SUN. Aug 7th   LEICESTER 2nd race 8/11
               WINDSOR   1st race 5/2

Today I have gone for WOLVERHAMPTON and LINGFIELD. The Wolverhampton favourites are pretty clear - unless there are any late non-runners, but the Lingfield 2.30 is a bit trickly so I'll put that one on as 'the unnamed favourite' with a Bookie to be sure of being on the right horse! 

Good luck with this little system if you choose to use it. Cheers for now.

P.S. Remember - if you can make just 5% per week £1,000 becomes a £Million in less than three years!